Are we in the early 90s again!

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

But is the sky dark in actuality? Absolutely not. I remember when AAPL took a ~50% haircut at the end of 2012 into early 2013. Wasn’t over then either.

My point is, retraces are normal and healthy.

Well if we're talking about things we remember, then I remember the Junk Wax Era and I remember the Graded Card Boom.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by critthnkr365

I don't remember the hobby crashing in the 1990's because card prices went through the roof and nobody could afford it. It was quite the opposite as I recall.

Not that I was the norm, but I left in 1995 out of boredom.

Me too. I got out because I had better teenage things to spend my money on and because I wanted to buy a car.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Well if we're talking about things we remember, then I remember the Junk Wax Era and I remember the Graded Card Boom.

Round and around we go!

I’m just going to come up with a canned phrase every time one of these threads gets created.

Something like, good moooooorning bubble bois! Maybe today is YOUR day!

[gmoney328]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Me too. I got out because I had better teenage things to spend my money on and because I wanted to buy a car.

I was bored as well. Not to mention I had a 100k plus collection stolen in 1990 and tried to get back into it from 1992-94 and my heart just wasn't in it. Nothing to do with overproduction.

[critthnkr365]

The waiting line at PSA is in "the single digit millions" and looking at the flurry of last minute hordes being sent in before the price increase, that number almost certainly hit double digit millions. And that's just PSA.

The market is seriously underestimating the flood of slabs that are about to hit.

I agree that this is definitely something to keep an eye on. And I do take this into consideration when buying. Most of what I collect, however, has not skyrocketed in price, demand, or supply.

[CharlieHustle]

And just to clarify my point in all of these threads, I'm not mad at anyone for getting into cards just to make money. Do want you want. Rip the copper out of the walls for all I care.
Myself, I've temporarily stopped buying, because the things I normally buy are artificially high right now (factory sets and occasional retail when I want to rip something). I'll buy again sometime down the road, but for now, I'm watching from a close distance.

My only point is to illustrate that this hobby doesn't run unchecked for long periods of time. SOMETHING always happens. And when it does, prices don't plateau, they plummet.

-Dont "invest" on credit
-Dont chase trends, strictly for profit.

Simple advice from a longtime collector.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Round and around we go!

I’m just going to come up with a canned phrase every time one of these threads gets created.

Something like, good moooooorning bubble bois! Maybe today is YOUR day!

It's not today.
Just guessing, but I think there's a little less than a year of runway left.
Plenty of time left to create more million dollar slabs.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by critthnkr365

The waiting line at PSA is in "the single digit millions" and looking at the flurry of last minute hordes being sent in before the price increase, that number almost certainly hit double digit millions. And that's just PSA.

The market is seriously underestimating the flood of slabs that are about to hit.

The vast majority of these cards are going to be within the last few years. Most pops from, say, 2016 and earlier are not going to be in the stratosphere. Compare the pops of a 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas to the 2018 Topps Acuna or 2019 Tatis. There just isn't that much high grade older stuff out there relative to recent material. Most of it that was worth grading is already slabbed. If the alleged bubble does deflate then the newer stuff is most likely to take the biggest hit.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The vast majority of these cards are going to be within the last few years. Most pops from, say, 2016 and earlier are not going to be in the stratosphere. Compare the pops of a 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas to the 2018 Topps Acuna or 2019 Tatis. There just isn't that much high grade older stuff out there relative to recent material. Most of it that was worth grading is already slabbed. If the alleged bubble does deflate then the newer stuff is most likely to take the biggest hit.

Depends what causes this alleged bubble to pop.
If the cause is card trimming or 3PG distrust, then nothing will be safe.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Depends what causes this alleged bubble to pop.
If the cause is card trimming or 3PG distrust, then nothing will be safe.

That train is dead. BODA took their shot, and nobody important cared enough. Is that right? No. But that's reality. The PSA acquisition by Nat lends credibility to the thought that the scandal is no threat to the company.

[RogerGodahell]

Is it 1991 today? I woke up this morning franticly looking for my Nirvana tape and my Nintendo. Have you heard of Nirvana yet? There's all these great new bands coming out of Seattle it's crazy!

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You're not describing gamblers, you're describing speculators.

Welcome to 1987. I have 100 card lots of Dave Magadan that I'd like to offer you to help fund your retirement.

Again you mischaracterize. The convo is about what is different, I am telling you as an absolute matter of fact that a ton of sports gambling money flowed into the hobby and has stayed. If anything, it has increased. And rightfully so. You can call it what it wants, but it is not evidence of a "bubble", it's evidence of a healthy hobby/market. Again, I'm sorry if you can't see it, but it's real. Do you know how big the sports gambling and daily fantasy industries are?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You're not describing gamblers, you're describing speculators.

Welcome to 1987. I have 100 card lots of Dave Magadan that I'd like to offer you to help fund your retirement.

You also still don't acknowledge any of the points I have made here and make a stupid fuc$ing comment about 87 topps Dave Magadan? Scarcity, grading, social media, connectivity. How long have you been wrong about this all for??

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[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

ONE of the above? How about all 3, with a little market flooding as an appetizer?



The waiting line at PSA is in "the single digit millions" and looking at the flurry of last minute hordes being sent in before the price increase, that number almost certainly hit double digit millions. And that's just PSA.



The market is seriously underestimating the flood of slabs that are about to hit.

So this is your argument for a bubble? That PSA has a million cards in que? Again, this is where you discount scarcity of cards. How many Topps Black Soto RCs are in que? So you might see a dip in base RC gems, is that a bubble? Again, basic economic understanding, you'd need more than a supply increase (which that isn't), you'd need a total loss of demand. You'd need it to fall off the cliff. So where are they going? Back to gambling on sports and losing 45-55% of the time?

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[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

And just to clarify my point in all of these threads, I'm not mad at anyone for getting into cards just to make money. Do want you want. Rip the copper out of the walls for all I care.
Myself, I've temporarily stopped buying, because the things I normally buy are artificially high right now (factory sets and occasional retail when I want to rip something). I'll buy again sometime down the road, but for now, I'm watching from a close distance.

My only point is to illustrate that this hobby doesn't run unchecked for long periods of time. SOMETHING always happens. And when it does, prices don't plateau, they plummet.

-Dont "invest" on credit
-Dont chase trends, strictly for profit.

Simple advice from a longtime collector.

There was zero doubt in my mind that this was your stance. You're just praying it comes down and are angry at people who value these cards more than you do.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That train is dead. BODA took their shot, and nobody important cared enough. Is that right? No. But that's reality. The PSA acquisition by Nat lends credibility to the thought that the scandal is no threat to the company.

I think this is a first Khal, you and I are in complete agreement on something!

I really hope that Nat can clean up their act, streamline their grading and hire some skilled graders. If he could also raise the training of these graders and possibly start looking at technology to set a given standard for centering, size, corners and edges, then that would leave just surface grades and auto grades open to the grader.

This could also help lessen the blow of a deflation IF the bubble were to deflate.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

There was zero doubt in my mind that this was your stance. You're just praying it comes down and are angry at people who value these cards more than you do.

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I'm not HOPING it comes down. I KNOW it will come down.
YOU can't see that.
This isn't a magical new playground. Being a former card show regular and card shop owner, you should know this. But you don't.

And where do you get this idea that I'm angry?
Do what you guys want. Make money, don't, I don't care.

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That train is dead. BODA took their shot, and nobody important cared enough. Is that right? No. But that's reality. The PSA acquisition by Nat lends credibility to the thought that the scandal is no threat to the company.

Agree, but the BODA will eventually find something that gets to that point and then I feel like something will happen with TPG market or Individual company market share.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

So this is your argument for a bubble? That PSA has a million cards in que? Again, this is where you discount scarcity of cards. How many Topps Black Soto RCs are in que? So you might see a dip in base RC gems, is that a bubble? Again, basic economic understanding, you'd need more than a supply increase (which that isn't), you'd need a total loss of demand. You'd need it to fall off the cliff. So where are they going? Back to gambling on sports and losing 45-55% of the time?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

No this isn't my argument for a bubble. You keep issuing these either/or scenarios and they are not close to what I'm saying.

I'll make it nice and simple.
New "collectors" are not collectors. They are speculators. When the money dries up, they are gone. And they take this artificial demand with them.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That train is dead. BODA took their shot, and nobody important cared enough. Is that right? No. But that's reality. The PSA acquisition by Nat lends credibility to the thought that the scandal is no threat to the company.

I somewhat agree with you here.
I agree with the part that the community essentially looked around, saw that nobody was going to really do anything, then shrugged their shoulders and put it behind them.

However, I don't think we've seen the last of the trimming scandal and if it rears it's ugly head in any significant way, it will have a real effect on the market.

This issue was never solved and it's just lingering out there, waiting for someone to make a big deal out of it.
IF someone does, it's not going to be pretty for the slab market. I hope we can at least agree on that.

[LSUNatChamps]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

No this isn't my argument for a bubble. You keep issuing these either/or scenarios and they are not close to what I'm saying.

I'll make it nice and simple.
New "collectors" are not collectors. They are speculators. When the money dries up, they are gone. And they take this artificial demand with them.

No market goes up forever. The long-term trajectory for sports cards may very well be higher, but once the easy money dries up through higher interest rates, the money supply will contract and fewer dollars will be left to speculate in the sports card market. What's happening in the sports card market is what's playing out in virtually every other asset class as unprecedented quantities of US dollars try to find a home.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Again you mischaracterize. The convo is about what is different, I am telling you as an absolute matter of fact that a ton of sports gambling money flowed into the hobby and has stayed. If anything, it has increased. And rightfully so. You can call it what it wants, but it is not evidence of a "bubble", it's evidence of a healthy hobby/market. Again, I'm sorry if you can't see it, but it's real. Do you know how big the sports gambling and daily fantasy industries are?

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All I'm getting from this is that YOU were potentially a sports gambler who got into cards instead and decided to call it a trend.
I don't see real gamblers getting into a buy/sell business to replace their gambling needs. If anything, gambling is opening up in more locations, so it would make little sense that they would come over to cards and make this a permanent home, instead of taking losses on sports picks.

[IlliniBear]

I think eventually there will be a bust but as long as the stock market doesn’t crash and the Fed keeps the liquidity on full blast demand for cards will be there.

[MikawlBBC]

Originally Posted by IlliniBear

I think eventually there will be a bust but as long as the stock market doesn’t crash and the Fed keeps the liquidity on full blast demand for cards will be there.

Market has been a little soft the last couple of weeks.

[AnthonyT]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The vast majority of these cards are going to be within the last few years. Most pops from, say, 2016 and earlier are not going to be in the stratosphere. Compare the pops of a 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas to the 2018 Topps Acuna or 2019 Tatis. There just isn't that much high grade older stuff out there relative to recent material. Most of it that was worth grading is already slabbed. If the alleged bubble does deflate then the newer stuff is most likely to take the biggest hit.

This made me reconsider my theory:

A lot of 2021 cards I am seeing are not centered well, especially some of the foil stuff. I was wondering if Topps knows PSA and other grading companies are getting slammed and market prices are crazy where they are intentionally limiting the number of centered, thereby, 10's in the marketplace. Am I nuts or is this a distinct possibility?