2025 Topps Chrome Spongebob

[Grid]

Originally Posted by eldavojohn

Counterpoint: the best result of analyzing pricing has nothing to do with whatever a given customer's budget is and instead should be about maximizing revenue from the market -- selling your complete product run at the highest value at the first point of sale. If it sells out and any sales are made on the secondary above MSRP, you have failed.
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Your counterpoint works, but only when selling to consumers. The vast majority of wax being sold is not for personal consumption. But rather to be flipped for more money.

Once fanatics starts charging the exact price the consumer is forced to pay in the open market. That removes the flippers/investors from these drops. And the house of cards will fall.

It is all just perceived value. An autograph out of a $100 box is worth $25. The same auto of the same person out of a $1,000 box is magically worth $250.

The flippers buy up boxes for $600 on a drop, and sell them for $700. If the card makers started charging $700, the flippers would need $800. And if that $800 isn't there, as the market wouldn't pay it. The flippers avoid or buy less on the next drop. And the market sinks.

I think Topps/UD/Panini and the rest of them are nailing it just right for pricing. After all, some in here were hoping for a $150 price point on a Spongebob release. 5 years ago, that is a $50 box at best. So their plan is already working!

[eldavojohn]

Originally Posted by Grid

Your counterpoint works, but only when selling to consumers. The vast majority of wax being sold is not for personal consumption. But rather to be flipped for more money.

Once fanatics starts charging the exact price the consumer is forced to pay in the open market. That removes the flippers/investors from these drops. And the house of cards will fall.

Okay so who are the flippers selling to? If I follow your logic:

Today: Flippers buy boxes at $600, sell boxes at $700. Regular joe buys boxes for $700.

Tomorrow when the house of cards falls: Topps sells boxes at $700. Now no one buys them because regular joe only buys from flippers?

Or are you saying that flippers buy boxes for $600 and value them at $700 and never make actual sales? I'm confused about how people getting them from Topps vs Flippers is going to cause this to crash out ... when they must be buying them from flippers or they are no longer flippers, they are chumps awaiting the greater fool.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by eldavojohn

Okay so who are the flippers selling to? If I follow your logic:

Today: Flippers buy boxes at $600, sell boxes at $700. Regular joe buys boxes for $700.

Tomorrow when the house of cards falls: Topps sells boxes at $700. Now no one buys them because regular joe only buys from flippers?

Or are you saying that flippers buy boxes for $600 and value them at $700 and never make actual sales? I'm confused about how people getting them from Topps vs Flippers is going to cause this to crash out ... when they must be buying them from flippers or they are no longer flippers, they are chumps awaiting the greater fool.

Flippers are selling to breakers for the most part

[eldavojohn]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Flippers are selling to breakers for the most part

This is the most circuitous "just so" narrative I've come across in sometime and given the state of my country, that's saying a lot.

I was informed that I missed out on EQL drops and no one won them because Topps was backdooring all the product to Fanatics Live breakers at cost under the secondary market.

Okay so the breakers aren't going to buy from Topps, just the flippers who are asking for more money and then the house of cards collapses?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by eldavojohn

This is the most circuitous "just so" narrative I've come across in sometime and given the state of my country, that's saying a lot.

I was informed that I missed out on EQL drops and no one won them because Topps was backdooring all the product to Fanatics Live breakers at cost under the secondary market.

Okay so the breakers aren't going to buy from Topps, just the flippers who are asking for more money and then the house of cards collapses?

I'm just answering your who buys the boxes at secondary prices. Not every breaker breaks on fanatics live. I've sold my boxes to breakers on Ebay and facebook a few times. People mention all the time breakers buying off the secondary market

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by eldavojohn

This is the most circuitous "just so" narrative I've come across in sometime and given the state of my country, that's saying a lot.

lol.. I come back from my afternoon doctors appointment and you have moved on to arguing with someone else in this thread. Do you sense a pattern? Troll much?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

lol.. I come back from my afternoon doctors appointment and you have moved on to arguing with someone else in this thread. Do you sense a pattern? Troll much?

I'm not even trying to start an argument, I was simply answering his question on who I think is buying the boxes on the secondary market and I get a jerkish response back for some reason

[eldavojohn]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I'm not even trying to start an argument, I was simply answering his question on who I think is buying the boxes on the secondary market and I get a jerkish response back for some reason

Sorry, I will stop wasting our time.

[finfangfan]

Moving on … maybe Blasters will be fun to pick up in the wild if they hit Walmart/Target/Gamestop?

[nonsportguy]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Moving on … maybe Blasters will be fun to pick up in the wild if they hit Walmart/Target/Gamestop?

Do we think blasters could hit retail shelves? I wouldn't mind buying a few if they still have the chance to contain autographs, sketches or numbered parallels

[finfangfan]

The street date for blaster boxes is listed as 10/01 at one of the normal trading card seller sites. I “ass”ume it’s likely big box gets these too.

[sauceboy]

Will blaster boxes be available in stores? The lowest price for them that I see on eBay is $59.99. I shouldn't be tempted to buy one, but I am.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by sauceboy

Will blaster boxes be available in stores? The lowest price for them that I see on eBay is $59.99. I shouldn't be tempted to buy one, but I am.

Don't cave. The more people over pay, the less likely the card companies are to ever change. Seems like 1 blaster can't hurt...but if everyone got on board, it'd help. I think we ALL know breaks(breakers) are the big problem, but we have to start somewhere. 0 card companies will be getting 0 dollars directly from me till the madness stops.

Even I can't manage to get totally out of the loop though...I suspect I support the card companies bad behavior via purchasing singles from the gamblers who join in what has to be one of the biggest wastes of gambling money ever... Almost positive you'd have a better shot at doing well/hitting it big on roulette vs breaking

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by orion9578

Don't cave. The more people over pay, the less likely the card companies are to ever change.

. 0 card companies will be getting 0 dollars directly from me till the madness stops.

That'll show em! They will probably be discussing your blaster boycott at their next board meeting.

Sorry, all in good fun. Seriously though, "holding out" doesn't change anything. I think I saw somewhere that last month the ebay/auction/card market hit $450 million. This was just for a single month and doesn't include direct sales from Topps, Panini, or breaking. Just secondary market stuff. People don't have a true grasp for how huge trading cards really are and how insignificant we each are with the few dollars in our pocket. You can boycott for 100 years and it changes absolutely nothing. The entire blowout board could boycott for 100 years and nothing changes.

Not buying because you can't afford it or just don't want to spend it is fine. But to think "taking a stand" is doing anything is naive.

[finfangfan]

We are def in an upswing as far as card sales. It’s kind of like another COVID boom. However, during COVID a lot of new sets were being delayed so there was actually a lack of new product which spiked up prices of wax. Here it seems like there is no shortage of new product being released but prices of wax are still spiking.

You mention secondary eBay sales and I have had a strong 2025 selling through COMC. Even in the last week I have sold two separate cards for $2k+ each. So the money is out there.

While wax prices are high, I still think there are good deals to be had in secondary if you browse around.

I think we have all been through bubbles in the past and the hobby is starting to feel a little bubblish. While there might be a lot more fuel in the tank, it wouldn’t surprise me if things deflate a bit. Maybe a recession will bring things down a bit.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That'll show em! They will probably be discussing your blaster boycott at their next board meeting.

Sorry, all in good fun. Seriously though, "holding out" doesn't change anything. I think I saw somewhere that last month the ebay/auction/card market hit $450 million. This was just for a single month and doesn't include direct sales from Topps, Panini, or breaking. Just secondary market stuff. People don't have a true grasp for how huge trading cards really are and how insignificant we each are with the few dollars in our pocket. You can boycott for 100 years and it changes absolutely nothing. The entire blowout board could boycott for 100 years and nothing changes.

Not buying because you can't afford it or just don't want to spend it is fine. But to think "taking a stand" is doing anything is naive.

It wasn't about 1 guy buying 1 blaster...I think you know that

You can rattle off all the number you'd like to...the market is not healthy. Again, this isn't traditional gambling where you have actual money being made as a result of your gambling. People are ending up with cards that they HAVE to sell in most cases...to chase the next "got to have it"(to sell it) card.

MOST of these people joining in the breaks are only joining to sell off the contents. I'd also venture a guess that MOST of the people buying singles are buying them thinking they're going to be worth more to the end of the rainbow collector. I've been the end of the rainbow guy for some cards for...decades. I am mostly NOT that guy anymore, because of what I perceive as the unhealthiness of the market.

The long-term issues I see with anyone just joining in the hobby are vast. They'll assume this money has always been here. They'll assume things were always this expensive. They'll assume it's normal to spend $1k and get $100 worth of stuff(in some cases NOTHING). Unhealthy.

So again, when I do say something...which isn't often these days, it's that the sky does fall sometimes and you should at least be aware of what your habits can cause, personally and as far as these companies are concerned.

It seems like your counterpoint is always that things are just going to keep going up, too big to fail...something along those lines. I disagree... But as always, as I think we've sparred back and forth several times over the years, nothing but respect. You've seemingly been there, done that too...just like a lot of us here

[dd316]

Originally Posted by orion9578

You can rattle off all the number you'd like to...the market is not healthy.

Depends on your definition of "healthy". I can't remember the last time I've seen cards in the limelight like right now (maybe the late '80s/early '90s), especially with celebrities really embracing it. Everybody wants to be part of that and it's really at a peak right now. You can't afford it, I can't afford it, but somebody's affording it because prices are skyrocketing and still selling out.

The only thing unhealthy is longtime collectors like me are just watching it happen. I can't afford to participate with the big boys, but I'm finding enjoyment in collecting sets from small press and custom releases.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by dd316

Depends on your definition of "healthy". I can't remember the last time I've seen cards in the limelight like right now (maybe the late '80s/early '90s), especially with celebrities really embracing it. Everybody wants to be part of that and it's really at a peak right now. You can't afford it, I can't afford it, but somebody's affording it because prices are skyrocketing and still selling out.

The only thing unhealthy is longtime collectors like me are just watching it happen. I can't afford to participate with the big boys, but I'm finding enjoyment in collecting sets from small press and custom releases.

Celebrities embracing something is good?

I understand basically what's going on in the market. My opinion is that it's not healthy. As far as being able to afford it goes...it's not even about that. It's about smart money and dumb money. I am buying very little that'll go in my actual collection, but I am buying a fair amount to sell...because I've been around, I am savvy, and I see people spending money that doesn't make sense...in a lot of cases it's probably "money", aka debt, that they're spending...unhealthy.

I think you kind of hammered home my point with the bolded. That's a big part of the market being unhealthy, in my opinion. Collectors aren't buying these cards.

[orion9578]

I get into these back and forth "arguments" in basically every Topps thread. Sometimes it's time to just pack it in, look in the mirror...say woosah... and let it go, I guess

The last few things I'll say are:

Would you tell your child to "invest" in cards? That it's a good "investment"? I know my answer. Stocks/Bonds/Treasuries/Real Estate/Gold & Silver/Even Crypto > cards.

Were you buying $80 cards for thousands of dollars during the pandemic? I know I wasn't. I sold quite a few though. Was that any healthier of a market than the market is now? I think we saw how that turned out for a LOT of those buyers...

I get that this could be the new normal, but I also think it almost all comes crashing down eventually. Will the tippy top cards hold their value long term(e.g the Jordan/Kobe that was bought as investment by a non-collector), I think that answer is probably yes. Most everything else is fodder.

[PurplesaurusRex]

Originally Posted by orion9578

I understand basically what's going on in the market. My opinion is that it's not healthy. As far as being able to afford it goes...it's not even about that. It's about smart money and dumb money. I am buying very little that'll go in my actual collection, but I am buying a fair amount to sell...because I've been around, I am savvy, and I see people spending money that doesn't make sense...in a lot of cases it's probably "money", aka debt, that they're spending...unhealthy.

I agree with you 100%. Most people buying boxes/cases right now are just looking to sell. Very few will be opened in the short term.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by orion9578

Celebrities embracing something is good?

100%. It brings awareness to a huge audience. Companies don't pay big money for celebrity endorsements on their goods just for fun.

Originally Posted by orion9578

Would you tell your child to "invest" in cards? That it's a good "investment"?

No way.



I'm viewing a "healthy" market as one that's generating money. The stock market isn't "healthy" when the bottom is falling out, and that's not happening with cards right now. They don't miss my meager annual spending right now when someone else steps into my place and spends 100x what I would have.

Long term health remains to be seen, but we all know where it will probably end up. They're all making hay while the sun is shining.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by dd316

Depends on your definition of "healthy". I can't remember the last time I've seen cards in the limelight like right now (maybe the late '80s/early '90s), especially with celebrities really embracing it. Everybody wants to be part of that and it's really at a peak right now. You can't afford it, I can't afford it, but somebody's affording it because prices are skyrocketing and still selling out.

The only thing unhealthy is longtime collectors like me are just watching it happen. I can't afford to participate with the big boys, but I'm finding enjoyment in collecting sets from small press and custom releases.

Life is a state of flux. Those who don't adapt are left behind, unfortunately.

You're not just watching it happen though, you've adjusted. That's why you're still able to continue enjoying the hobby (albeit in a new way). FWIW, you're mentally healthy

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by dd316

100%. It brings awareness to a huge audience. Companies don't pay big money for celebrity endorsements on their goods just for fun.

You can call that good, I'll call it manipulation. Most of those celebrities do not care about cards. They definitely won't be bothered by any crash that happens. So again, you call it good...I'll call it bad.

Originally Posted by dd316

No way.



I'm viewing a "healthy" market as one that's generating money. The stock market isn't "healthy" when the bottom is falling out, and that's not happening with cards right now. They don't miss my meager annual spending right now when someone else steps into my place and spends 100x what I would have.

Long term health remains to be seen, but we all know where it will probably end up. They're all making hay while the sun is shining.

Just my opinion, but I think you're confusing a "healthy" market with a heavily manipulated market, which is about as far from healthy as it gets. Are people making money? Yes, there are.

Wax is manipulated by Fanatics & the big online sellers. Single prices are manipulated via manufactured scarcity, FOMO and influencers..."celebrities".

None of that sounds healthy to me, but again, I agree...make money while you can. I'd just refrain from calling any of that healthy.

[finfangfan]

I don’t think having celebrities/influencers and bringing more eyes to the hobby in and of itself is a bad thing. I just think more and more new people are being drawn to the gambling aspects of the hobby rather than the collector aspects.

That might change if Emma Roberts starts collecting Dinosaurs sketches for fun… that’s when I probably cash out ��

[armyml]

Originally Posted by orion9578

You can call that good, I'll call it manipulation. Most of those celebrities do not care about cards. They definitely won't be bothered by any crash that happens. So again, you call it good...I'll call it bad.





Just my opinion, but I think you're confusing a "healthy" market with a heavily manipulated market, which is about as far from healthy as it gets. Are people making money? Yes, there are.

Wax is manipulated by Fanatics & the big online sellers. Single prices are manipulated via manufactured scarcity, FOMO and influencers..."celebrities".

None of that sounds healthy to me, but again, I agree...make money while you can. I'd just refrain from calling any of that healthy.

Not a knock on you or anything you've said at all, but I see the word manipulated being thrown around a lot in this thread. I don't disagree that there isn't shenanigans going on somewhere behind the scenes but I'm sure there has been manipulation going on ever since cards had value. It's part of this capitalism system we all play. I just think it's easy to say things are manipulated just because prices on wax is higher than people want to pay.(Pricing from 8-9 years ago essentially is what I see people wanting to pay).

Topps manipulating by having celebrities for endorsements- I mean they do own the licenses and are producing the product. Isn't that just Marketing & Advertising at this point? If I just paid another entity entirely(MLB, NBA etc.) a metric boatload of money I'd want to advertise and promote my product into the mainstream to get a return on my investment as soon as possible. Doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. Are we all sheep to the point to where seeing Tom Brady in a Fanatics Short is going to trick us into buying cases of wax I wouldn't want otherwise? Do all celebrities care about the products they get paid to do commercials for? I'm sure old spice dude has had another scent on him at some point.

I guess I'm just curious as to what the goldilocks scenario is for everyone who thinks everything is being manipulated to the moon because of flippers and breakers? Have Fanatics pay half a billion for Topps then just set all box prices at $100 to make everyone happy? I mean Leaf still makes cards....could just buy that stuff instead.

The massive price jump of wax during the 2018-19 wax rotation should be what people analyze and look at as far as why the market in general has gotten so crazy and not so much what Fanatics is doing now. Fanatics is just doing what they do in the market that the 2018-19 jump created. Wax boxes doubled one day and 3 months later they were 4-5x back then. I just jumped back into the hobby that year and was buying NBA Prizm and Optic. I saw it all happen firsthand and one day the boxes were just unaffordable all of the sudden. From there everything climbed and it never stopped. At one point people were buying National Treasures basketball for $500 a box. That's the 2nd nicest NBA set behind Flawless. When I jumped in that $500 dollar box was $1200...then 16...then 24...32....now I think its 6500. And this is a Panini product not Topps/Fanatics. It's a market ecosystem issue not any individual company goin all Dr. Evil behind the scenes IMO.