The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

No trades today.

FOMC Wednesday on rate decision.

Data dropped @ 10:30 and didn't move the market much.

Will be back for power hour.



Earnings on watch for

MCD - interested to see what they say about customer traffic and spending.



PYPL - I have equity in it. Expecting it to fill that gap @ 75. When the gap fills I'll close my short position.

Originally Posted by Blazed

Picked up PYPL equity. 2k @ $59.70.

Reason: check monthly chart, needs to revert back to the mean. Check the weekly, we’re at the mean. Want to see it hit top range. Price target 70/71ish

Originally Posted by Blazed

I'll be selling $60 puts a year out when the market opens on this position.

First price target $70ish > $80ish

AMZN - I will be playing calls light position for AMZN. Expecting cloud growth. Cloud growth is all they care about on AMZN.


AMD - Still in these. Would be nice to see a push down so I can close this position out.

Originally Posted by Blazed

Sold some covered calls here on some of my equity positions (100% AMD)

Strikes - AMD -AMD260116C200.

AAPL - Same as AMD. Nice push down I'll close out my position.

Originally Posted by Blazed

Sold some covered calls here on some of my equity positions (40% of AAPL)

Strikes - AAPL -AAPL250321C200

Will also be watching credit card & hotel earnings to see what the consumers doing.

[Blazed]

Last day of the month. MM's like to rebalance, see what they do today.

Big earnings after hours today.


SPX: 5100 key level / 5050 bottom (gap @ 5057.75) / 5150 top (resistance 5145/47 area) + ATR's


Watching:

SPY bounce @ 506 area & reject @ 510

--------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Blazed

PYPL - I have equity in it. Expecting it to fill that gap @ 75. When the gap fills I'll close my short position.

Getting close

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Last day of the month. MM's like to rebalance, see what they do today.

Big earnings after hours today.


SPX: 5100 key level / 5050 bottom (gap @ 5057.75) / 5150 top (resistance 5145/47 area) + ATR's


Watching:

SPY bounce @ 506 area & reject @ 510

--------------------------------------



Getting close

Following this, late today.

[ajlaxmn]

Consumer confidence at 10. Waiting until then to take trade.

[Blazed]

Chicago PMI in 2 mins

Consumer confidence @ 10

Expecting chop today. No trade until the chop stops and range breaks

SPX needs to break and hold 5104 for call entry

Hold below 5095 for puts

Tight stops today

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Chicago PMI in 2 mins

Consumer confidence @ 10

Expecting chop today. No trade until the chop stops and range breaks

SPX needs to break and hold 5104 for call entry

Hold below 5095 for puts

Tight stops today

Tempting with SPX holding 5104 with SPY bouncing VWAP, can't do it with consumer confidence 5m away.

[Blazed]

Chop confirmed.

Likely won't take a trade today.

Alerts set for main levels.

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPY bounce @ 506 area & reject @ 510

Highest probability and best R/R.

[lane121]

Only watching for 506 & 510 area too today

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Watching:
SPY bounce @ 506 area & reject @ 510

Originally Posted by Blazed

Chop confirmed.

Likely won't take a trade today.

Alerts set for main levels.

Highest probability and best R/R.

Took SPX calls @ my SPY level. Hit almost to the T for a 10 point move on SPX

SPX Calls went from 10.00 > 14.60

Got stopped @ entry on my 2 runners.

I'll check back @ power hour to see where the market is.

Gains from this trade $2.9k

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Took SPX calls @ my SPY level. Hit almost to the T for a 10 point move on SPX

SPX Calls went from 10.00 > 14.60

Got stopped @ entry on my 2 runners.

I'll check back @ power hour to see where the market is.

Gains from this trade $2.9k

it moved 10 points? I took it at touch of your SPY level, SPX only got to 5085, I took 5080C, did you take 5075C

I took a $200 loss, SPX broke below ATR, was keeping a tighter stop today.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

it moved 10 points? I took it at touch of your SPY level, SPX only got to 5085, I took 5080C, did you take 5075C

I took a $200 loss, SPX broke below ATR, was keeping a tighter stop today.

Yes, I always take at or ITM calls. Premiums move way better.

We hit 5075 so I take 5075 calls. If we hit 5077, I take 5075 calls. If we hit 5063 I take 5060 calls.

Always at or ITM.

Reason, flow buy way of OTM calls and short ITM/ATM calls. Charm decays those calls OTM and pushes price down in the underlying forcing acceleration. Grimy game in 0dte land, I never do OTM calls/puts for that reason.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Yes, I always take at or ITM calls. Premiums move way better.

We hit 5075 so I take 5075 calls. If we hit 5077, I take 5075 calls. If we hit 5063 I take 5060 calls.

Always at or ITM.

Reason, flow buy way of OTM calls and short ITM/ATM calls. Charm decays those calls OTM and pushes price down in the underlying forcing acceleration. Grimy game in 0dte land, I never do OTM calls/puts for that reason.

You took 5075C when SPX touched 5075? I took when it hit 506, but when SPX was bouncing 5079 ATR (entered 5080 C). Was there a reason you didn't enter Calls initially at touch of 506?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

You took 5075C when SPX touched 5075? I took when it hit 506, but when SPX was bouncing 5079 ATR (entered 5080 C). Was there a reason you didn't enter Calls initially at touch of 506?

I searched the thread but couldn't find it. I've mentioned to trim every $100/$200 per contract on bounces when going against the trend (it's better to not fight the trend) as we would bounce @ solid levels but the bounce would be ephemeral until we get a reversal signal.

No. 5075 was a premarket low.

I took 5075 calls when SPY hit 506.04. We broke below 5080, so I went to the next ITM option since I wasn't sure it would actually bounce as we had that slow grind down to the level.

I was going against the trend and volume didn't signal a reversal.

Had we not bounced @ 506 then I would have cut my position @ break below 5075 as I didn't have a level anymore levels until we hit gap @ 5057.

Also had we not bounced I wouldn't lose as much as premium decay would be slower since it's ITM.

See below

Enter > Trim > Exit

Wasn't looking for a huge move.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I searched the thread but couldn't find it. I've mentioned to trim every $100/$200 per contract on bounces when going against the trend (it's better to not fight the trend) as we would bounce @ solid levels but the bounce would be ephemeral until we get a reversal signal.

No. 5075 was a premarket low.

I took 5075 calls when SPY hit 506.04. We broke below 5080, so I went to the next ITM option since I wasn't sure it would actually bounce as we had that slow grind down to the level.

I was going against the trend and volume didn't signal a reversal.

Had we not bounced @ 506 then I would have cut my position @ break below 5075 as I didn't have a level anymore levels until we hit gap @ 5057.

Also had we not bounced I wouldn't lose as much as premium decay would be slower since it's ITM.

See below

Enter > Trim > Exit

Wasn't looking for a huge move.

Ok, I did enter the same time, however I was looking for a bigger move, not factoring in the trend, etc......Good learning. I'll make note of this. I don't remember the $100/$200 trim against the trend on High Probability bounce without reversal, my fault. I'll note it all.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Ok, I did enter the same time, however I was looking for a bigger move, not factoring in the trend, etc......Good learning. I'll make note of this. I don't remember the $100/$200 trim against the trend on High Probability bounce without reversal, my fault. I'll note it all.

Yeah, trend matters in between XX00 / XX50. It still matters @ whole psych numbers but bigger moves/reversals are more likely @ whole psych numbers as that's where most orders are sitting.

Example: this gap fill @ 5057.7 coming up - too late in the day to take it but if I did I'd be in the 5055 calls.

If I was looking for a reject @ 5083, I'd be in the 5085 puts.

If I'm looking for a bounce @ 5050 or 5100, then I'd take 5050 or 5100 calls as they're whole psych numbers. Sometimes I still go 1 contract ITM 5045/5095 just to be a little safer in case of draw down.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

AMZN - I will be playing calls light position for AMZN. Expecting cloud growth. Cloud growth is all they care about on AMZN.

Only took 2 -AMZN240503C175

[ajlaxmn]

4/30/24 – Late to market so didn’t have time to mark levels. Used Blazes levels to watch market. Didn’t trade in first 15 minutes. Market started out choppy, didn’t take any trades initially. Only used SPY bounce levels of 506 and reject area 510 as areas to look for a trade. When SPY got to 406, entered 5080 C, SPX bounced ATR (5079), SPY bounced same ATR (SPY 506.36). Sold for $300 loss when SPX broke below ATR. Error was not taking 5075 C (blaze did this), had I done this I could have sold at ten point move when SPX moved up to and rejected 508, three times (third time was 5084.92). Next trade was at 1:50 when three consecutive SPY candles closed green with lower volume, all three lower than the previous red candle. Was waiting for reject of 5079 ATR for Put entry. Entered three points too early 5076, with a $8.80 fill. SHOULD HAVE WAITED FOR SPX TO REJECT AT LEVEL (MISTAKE THAT I CONTINUALLY MAKE, RESULTING IN A HIGHER FILL THAT IMPACTS MY PROFIT WHEN I TRIM, CRUCIAL FOR THE ONE CONTRACT I AM TAKING). Both SPX and SPY rejected the same ATR, which was my confirmation to hold my position. Used 5075 as resistance for when SPX would push back up, rejected each time. In addition, SPY volume was closed red and higher than the previous green for two candles. Sold when SPX dropped down to 5067 as this was more than a 10 point move. Profit $330, had my entry been right at the ATR, contracts would have moved from $7 per to $12.50 per. Had I been in two contracts, I would have held, because volume still signaling downside, for the 5057 GAP/ATR, which SPX bounced.

[Blazed]

FOMC today. Today is not a good day to trade as the market will make sharp moves during FOMC.


SPX: 5070 top (5057 resistance + Gap @ 5035.3) / 5000 key level / 4970 bottom + ATRs.


Watching:

SPY: bounce @ 498.2. If we don't get the bounce I'll be watching for calls calls above 502.1

AMD: calls above 150 looking for > 152 > 153.28



Watch volume/trend/levels. Don't rush/force trades/front run trades especially today. Entry matters.

After entry, let the trade play out. Watch levels not P&L. If you get a good entry no reason to exit if all signals are pointing your way. Learn to hold winners longer.

That said, I would not trade today. I would watch and see how the market moves.


-------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by Blazed

Only took 2 -AMZN240503C175

Expected a bigger move. Will close these out at open.

Originally Posted by Blazed

Sold some covered calls here on some of my equity positions (40% of AAPL, 40% of MSFT, and 100% AMD). Make your equity work for you.

Strikes - AMD -AMD260116C200.

I will be closing 1/2 this position after open. First price target hit, 50 point drop from entry.

[Blazed]

Yeah. Not trading this.

Will be back for FOMC.

Bigger moves will happen for FOMC.

[Blazed]

Decision in 1. Powell in 30.

No trades until Powell speaks.

They shouldn't change rates today, so it's expected that we don't change.

So any surprises might just come from Powell's speech.


Watching:

SPX bounce 4090-5000 area and reject @ 5057

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Decision in 1. Powell in 30.

No trades until Powell speaks.

They shouldn't change rates today, so it's expected that we don't change.

So any surprises might just come from Powell's speech.


Watching:

SPX bounce 4090-5000 area and reject @ 5057

Reject @ 5057 - Didn't work out. Rejected the level at first and then rocketed up too fast. I decided to hold position until implied top (5070) and it blew past that too so cut position @ 5078 area.

My first ever fully red FOMC.






Interesting, this was first time a level was ignored (5057), and especially the implied top @ 5070. It did come back down and retest 5070 twice and bounced both times. Only ignored it on the way up lol.






Thought about taking puts up here @ 5100 but I'll call it a day.

Back at it tomorrow.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Reject @ 5057 - Didn't work out.

Wild day.

They got me for $18k today. I thought for sure they would pin it around 5080 - 5090 @ close.

[Blazed]

AAPL earnings after the bell will be very interesting. Also will be watching COIN & SQ


SPX: 5050 key level (5057 & 5075 resistance) / 5100 top (5097 resistance) / 5000 bottom (5025/27 support > 5004 support)


Watching:

SPY: reject @ 506.3 (HR) and 508 (HP) & a bounce @ 502.1

TSLA: Watching for an uptrend entry. (missed my equity add so I'll play options until it pulls back again)


-------------------

Worth noting:

Goldman Sachs, $GS, analysts estimate that pensions will unload $325 billion in stocks this year, up from $191 billion in 2023, per WSJ.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

AAPL earnings after the bell will be very interesting. Also will be watching COIN & SQ


SPX: 5050 key level (5057 & 5075 resistance) / 5100 top (5097 resistance) / 5000 bottom (5025/27 support > 5004 support)


Watching:

SPY: reject @ 506.3 (HR) and 508 (HP) & a bounce @ 502.1

TSLA: Watching for an uptrend entry. (missed my equity add so I'll play options until it pulls back again)


-------------------

Worth noting:

SPX: 5057 resistance✅- so yesterday they ignored it and today it worked out lol.

Yesterday was a perfect example of having an A+ setup that doesn't work out.

[lane121]

Missed the big move today at 5057 even though I was watching it. 1 min chart kept closing below resistance, but I was looking at Tradingview and TOS for both SPY and SPX going back and forth. I should have had my levels marked and after premarket exclusively been looking at TOS.

I did buy 3 SPY call contracts @ 502 at 9:31 after watching the 1 min SPX continuously close above the 5033 ATR and the 9:15 SPY 15 minute closing above the ATR as well for confluence. Buyers appeared to be stepping in based on the 9:15 SPY candle that had closed. At the time, it appeared the 15 minute 9:30 SPY was retesting the ATR as support. The 9:00 15 minute SPY candle had closed with over 2.5 million volume with strong sellers present; however, that volume was invalidated due to the factory orders data drop. I was also going against the trend entering this trade. I ended up cutting for a $102 loss when the 5 minute 9:40 SPX candle crossed below the 5033 ATR.