NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by tjforce

That's an amazing moment too. I remember watching that on Christmas day 2013.

Sucks it's stuck in a realm that's only for the whales.

Guess I get to settle for Obi Toppin. Thanks!

Def one of his best moments.

[sandlotsportcards]

I like all 3 moments chosen. I have been selling off a bunch of my moments but I'm going to keep an eye on these once they hit the marketplace and might try to pick up the Obi and Claxton for sure. I'm trying to figure out if I'd be better off paying $35-$40 to complete the challenge for the Obi or if it'll be in that range to purchase. I have no chance completing the others.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by pyrexswerve

You were right. They just announced. What a travesty though.
LeBron should have been hard, Giannis medium & then Toppin or Claxton as the easy.

I thought at first LeBron should have been the hard, but here’s where I think their thinking lies

Curry got a MSLE for breaking the 3s record. LeBron is on pace to pass Malone for 2nd in points all time this season. I think the S3 LeBron MSLE will be the bucket that passes Malone when that happens later in the season

If you give LeBron the MSLE at Christmas, you can’t do a MSLE for when he passes Malone

[mjohnatgt]

Originally Posted by sandlotsportcards

I'm trying to figure out if I'd be better off paying $35-$40 to complete the challenge for the Obi or if it'll be in that range to purchase.

Pick up the moments needed and earn the Obi. Then sell when those players are getting close to be needed for a different challenge. Low-hanging fruit. Nearly impossible to lose.

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

I thought at first LeBron should have been the hard, but here’s where I think their thinking lies

Curry got a MSLE for breaking the 3s record. LeBron is on pace to pass Malone for 2nd in points all time this season. I think the S3 LeBron MSLE will be the bucket that passes Malone when that happens later in the season

If you give LeBron the MSLE at Christmas, you can’t do a MSLE for when he passes Malone

That's a good point. If that happens, I would agree with the decision then.

[grade]

Future challenge rewards for
easy =Jacob
medium = some VC
hard= Roham

they love themselves so much, make it happen.
Would be great to tell you the truth.

[mjohnatgt]

I haven't paid attention much to what's available in the packs, figuring that they would be a random assortment of moments that were recently minted. However, I decided to look into the Pack 6 available on Thursday. Here are some numbers:

Total Moments available:
26 of 4K LE, 18 of 9999 LE, 7 of 12K LE, 130 of 60K CC moments
If they evenly distributed these in packs, your odds would be:
1.27% chance of getting a 4K RC, 2.2% of getting a 9999, 1.03% of getting a 12K, and 95.5% chance of getting a /60k moment.

However, because they throttle the rate they seal them in packs, the odds for this release are:
4100 of 4K LE moments, 36500 of 9999 LE, 18500 of 12K LE, and 435900 of the CCs.
That's odds of 0.83% of pulling a 4K, 7.37% for a 9999 LE, 3.74% of pulling a 12K, and only 88% chance of pulling a 60K.

However, the moments are also not evenly distributed in their print run groups.
For the 4000 PR moments, there are ONLY 100 EACH of 25 out of the 26 moments, and 1600 of the Jonathan Kiminga in these packs.

You get worse odds of pulling a 4K and nearly half of them are likely to be Kiminga. Odds of pulling a 9999 and 12K moment in this pack release are actually MUCH BETTER than the straight odds if they were evenly distributed.

[Mahomescards777]

Sold my Jaylen brown for $8

[thejazzcollector]

Originally Posted by mjohnatgt

I haven't paid attention much to what's available in the packs, figuring that they would be a random assortment of moments that were recently minted. However, I decided to look into the Pack 6 available on Thursday. Here are some numbers:

Total Moments available:
26 of 4K LE, 18 of 9999 LE, 7 of 12K LE, 130 of 60K CC moments
If they evenly distributed these in packs, your odds would be:
1.27% chance of getting a 4K RC, 2.2% of getting a 9999, 1.03% of getting a 12K, and 95.5% chance of getting a /60k moment.

However, because they throttle the rate they seal them in packs, the odds for this release are:
4100 of 4K LE moments, 36500 of 9999 LE, 18500 of 12K LE, and 435900 of the CCs.
That's odds of 0.83% of pulling a 4K, 7.37% for a 9999 LE, 3.74% of pulling a 12K, and only 88% chance of pulling a 60K.

However, the moments are also not evenly distributed in their print run groups.
For the 4000 PR moments, there are ONLY 100 EACH of 25 out of the 26 moments, and 1600 of the Jonathan Kiminga in these packs.

You get worse odds of pulling a 4K and nearly half of them are likely to be Kiminga. Odds of pulling a 9999 and 12K moment in this pack release are actually MUCH BETTER than the straight odds if they were evenly distributed.

Thanks for the info and the breakdown! Based on the data, seems to suggest this drop probably won’t be worth the rookie chase then right?

[pyrexswerve]

I'm never buying a S3 base pack again. I'll only do themed pack drops.

Those odd's are pretty much the same for every drop.
I'm not rookie chasing anymore. I'll just buy it from the MP. I always end up with 60k's, so no more for me.

[mjohnatgt]

Originally Posted by thejazzcollector

Thanks for the info and the breakdown! Based on the data, seems to suggest this drop probably won’t be worth the rookie chase then right?

If you only care to chase the /4k moments in packs, this drop is not a good one. However, I've realized that I can sell almost all the moments for $3 and some for $4-5 when people are chasing challenges, so I don't mind buying 5 packs and then either listing at $3-4 each or leaving in my account for challenges.

[ACCDADEAL]

I am so done with Top Shot the weak packs and stuck with $1 cards, trying to sell my whole collection somehow. Anyone done that yet? I have gone to Prizm NFT at least the packs have good stuff in them

[grade]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

I am so done with Top Shot the weak packs and stuck with $1 cards, trying to sell my whole collection somehow. Anyone done that yet? I have gone to Prizm NFT at least the packs have good stuff in them

Panini has potential for sure.
TS has become more of a game. The user base will change, dont know if for the better or worse.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

Future challenge rewards for
easy =Jacob
medium = some VC
hard= Roham

they love themselves so much, make it happen.
Would be great to tell you the truth.

If you hate TS so much now why do you keep it in your signature

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

Panini has potential for sure.
TS has become more of a game. The user base will change, dont know if for the better or worse.

One of Panini’s biggest problems is the huge fees on low end sales. You sell a 5 dollar NFT and you get slapped with a 24% fee through their site plus PayPal. If they want to grow, you can’t be having such large of fees on low end. Especially when a ton of their product is currently low end

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

I am so done with Top Shot the weak packs and stuck with $1 cards, trying to sell my whole collection somehow. Anyone done that yet? I have gone to Prizm NFT at least the packs have good stuff in them

Well the floor right now on moments is 3 dollars. You can pretty much sell any moment for 2 dollars instantly. With moment floor at 3 dollars, on a 9 dollar pack with 3 moments, at worst you’re losing some juice. You aren’t losing 80-90% like on average with wax in sports cards

Also here’s a more theory based question. Panini NFTs, you say they have good stuff in them.

Is it good stuff as in great resale/great for the product or is it great because in sports cards, things like downtowns and golds are super popular so you equate that to assume these in NFT packs are automatically good

Like I bought a couple downtown packs (I think it was mosaic and promised 1 downtown). 15 bucks a pack, 2 base, 1 downtown. First pack pulled a Baker Mayfield downtown. Sold for 5 dollars. So it seems good as it’s a downtown but when it sells for 1/3 the pack cost, is that actually good?

[ACCDADEAL]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Well the floor right now on moments is 3 dollars. You can pretty much sell any moment for 2 dollars instantly. With moment floor at 3 dollars, on a 9 dollar pack with 3 moments, at worst you’re losing some juice. You aren’t losing 80-90% like on average with wax in sports cards



Also here’s a more theory based question. Panini NFTs, you say they have good stuff in them.



Is it good stuff as in great resale/great for the product or is it great because in sports cards, things like downtowns and golds are super popular so you equate that to assume these in NFT packs are automatically good



Like I bought a couple downtown packs (I think it was mosaic and promised 1 downtown). 15 bucks a pack, 2 base, 1 downtown. First pack pulled a Baker Mayfield downtown. Sold for 5 dollars. So it seems good as it’s a downtown but when it sells for 1/3 the pack cost, is that actually good?

I think if they had the amount of marketplace TS has then yeah they will dominate. Ts has proven nothing to me in nearly a year. I pulled one decent card I cant sell a #1/10000

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Brobocop]

It’s like neither TS or Panini can get it 100% right.

TS has good liquidity and a decent fee structure but has moments numbered to the moon and is difficult for new users to get engaged on. Panini has lower mints and is probably easier for a new user to start given the availability of limited edition packs but a crap fee structure and almost no liquidity outside of the biggest names in the sports.

Meanwhile, Topps is just dead and waiting for a stray dog to kick some dirt on it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[grade]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

Well the floor right now on moments is 3 dollars. You can pretty much sell any moment for 2 dollars instantly. With moment floor at 3 dollars, on a 9 dollar pack with 3 moments, at worst you’re losing some juice. You aren’t losing 80-90% like on average with wax in sports cards

Also here’s a more theory based question. Panini NFTs, you say they have good stuff in them.

Is it good stuff as in great resale/great for the product or is it great because in sports cards, things like downtowns and golds are super popular so you equate that to assume these in NFT packs are automatically good

Like I bought a couple downtown packs (I think it was mosaic and promised 1 downtown). 15 bucks a pack, 2 base, 1 downtown. First pack pulled a Baker Mayfield downtown. Sold for 5 dollars. So it seems good as it’s a downtown but when it sells for 1/3 the pack cost, is that actually good?

When TS had S1/1500 for $1 and $9 s2packs available with /1500 /4000 it was obvious that TS had potential to appreciate in value . The risk vs reward was there.

With /60000 the risk vs reward for TS moments is neutral at best. Panini NFT has more upside and potential at this time.

It is not about what is now, it is what can be in the future.

Right now have 500+ TS moments, over 1000 Panini NFT buying singles and 50 unopend packs. 800 Topps cards, Just waiting for Panini to dump PAYPAL.

Topps might be the sleeper. who knows. They have announced 10 million wax blockchain accounts. (WAXP) is the play.,

[pyrexswerve]

...........

[pyrexswerve]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

I think if they had the amount of marketplace TS has then yeah they will dominate. Ts has proven nothing to me in nearly a year. I pulled one decent card I cant sell a #1/10000

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If you can't sell a #1, you have it priced too high. Keep lowering it until it does.
What you also have to note, you pulled the impossible, a #1, but these moments aren't as liquid for non-stars, so you really need to price it accordingly.

What's the moment?

[rubendn]

Panini added Gifting with similar requirements to Top Shot so it should make off market transactions easier to make.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by ACCDADEAL

I think if they had the amount of marketplace TS has then yeah they will dominate. Ts has proven nothing to me in nearly a year. I pulled one decent card I cant sell a #1/10000

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

What’s the moment/what’s your listed price? SN 1s certainly aren’t the most liquid of moments

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by grade

When TS had S1/1500 for $1 and $9 s2packs available with /1500 /4000 it was obvious that TS had potential to appreciate in value . The risk vs reward was there.

With /60000 the risk vs reward for TS moments is neutral at best. Panini NFT has more upside and potential at this time.

It is not about what is now, it is what can be in the future.

Right now have 500+ TS moments, over 1000 Panini NFT buying singles and 50 unopend packs. 800 Topps cards, Just waiting for Panini to dump PAYPAL.

Topps might be the sleeper. who knows. They have announced 10 million wax blockchain accounts. (WAXP) is the play.,

You always discuss the future but Panini is losing their licenses, so how does that bode well for a future?

Also you always avoid my question of why you keep TS in your post signature

[grade]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

You always discuss the future but Panini is losing their licenses, so how does that bode well for a future?

Also you always avoid my question of why you keep TS in your post signature

3 years is a eternity with NFT and crypto. Look at TS, it is totally different from Jan. This is not physical cards, the NFT world is cluttered with acceptable non license products. It is a different world in collecting now.

You ignore everything not TS. I do all three and just telling it like it is with all 3 with no bias to anyone.


I leave the TS in my sig to remind users like you, i actually did TS and speaking from what i learned from Jan.

anymore questions?