HOF Pace Tracker - Page 78

Silent George · 07-23-2021, 01:51 PM

I've posted about this before, but as a HOF collector, and a data analyst, I built a system to track what players are close to a HOF career. I update this 10 times a season (approx every 16 games) and today is the day, and I thought I'd post it here for anyone interested.

The methodology is that I took every HOF elected as a player who had a normal MLB career (so not Monte Irvin, Satchel Paige) and I made an age based amalgam of what a hall of famer looks like. I then took the 33% as a pretty safe "This player has had enough of a career that there will be a debate," distributed it by age, and tracked it to todays players.

"It" is Fangraphs War, which is currently clearly better than Baseball Reference WAR. End of discussion. The 33% Hall of famer has 52.5 career WAR. So they are significantly better than Harold Baines, but not in the Babe Ruth conversation (and for the record, have more career WAR than Sandy Koufax).

This is in no way an argument that these players will get in. Or that the methodology is perfect. Or that your "eyes" and "guy" are wrong. And it's not saying the it's the Hall of WAR, and it doesn't know who has beaten their wife or been suspended for Roids, and it really doesn't care what you think of WAR, because it's creator knows it's a pretty crappy stat, but also pretty much the best we have for measuring everything across baseball.

30-50 active players a year make the Hall of Fame eventually, and that number only grows. I made it just to make it easier to identify who that 30-50 might be for my own PC. You can burn it, or turn it into the FBI, or cancel me, or whatever if you'd like.

Players listed are the ones within 2 years of the 33% HOF Alamgam. Meaning if a player is 26 and listed as a (-2) it means they've hit the WAR threshold of a 24 year old. I use 2 years to make sure no one sneaks up on me. Players with big years can advance quickly. Players with a (*) have already made it to the WAR limit. I'll put a % next to them to show their actual percentile against real hall of famers at their age, not the amalgam (I track a lot of things).

Also: I have no idea how to track closers. I think about this every day.

No position adjustments. The point is to cast a wide net, not specifically come up with who is worthy.

I'm not making any declaration about any player. I just came up with a personal system for tracking, and let the math play out as it does. You do not have to choose to savage me for "thinking" Bryce Harper is a HOF. It's just a calculation. It's nothing personal towards you or your favorite or least favorite player.

I can say all that and know I'll still get attacked. Oh well. I'll add updates every 16 games if people are interested.

Players:

Age 20:
Franco, Wander (-2)
Age 21:
Patino, Luis (-2)
Weathers, Ryan (-2)
Age 22:
Gimenez, Andres (-2)
Garcia, Deivi (-2)
Sanchez, Sixto (-2)
Crochet, Gerrit (-2)
Carlson, Dylan (-2)
Baddoo, Akil (-2)
Guerrero Jr., Vlad (0)
Tatis Jr., Fernando (+2)
Soto, Juan (+3)
Age 23:
Robert, Luis (-2)
Anderson, Ian (-2)
Rogers, Trevor (-2)
Soroka, Mike (-1)
Bichette, Bo (-1)
Acuna Jr., Ronald (+2)
Age 24:
Arraez, Luis (-2)
Grisham, Trent (-2)
Alvarez, Yordan (-2)
Urias, Julio (-1)
Torres, Gleyber (-1)
Devers, Rafael (0)
Albies, Ozzie (+1)
Age 25:
Keller, Brad (-2)
Adames, Willy (-2)
Flaherty, Jack (-2)
Bellinger, Cody (0)
Age 26:
Ohtani, Shohei (-2)
Buehler, Walker (-2)
Moncada, Yoan (-1)
Bieber, Shane (-1)
Marquez, German (-1)
Correa, Carlos (+1)
Age 27:
Marte, Ketel (-2)
Olson, Matt (-2)
Seager, Cory (-1)
Bregman, Alex (0)
Lindor, Francisco (+2)
Age 28:
Chapman, Matt (-2)
Syndergaard, Noah (-2)
Story, Trevor (-2)
Turner, Trea (-1)
Nola, Aaron (-1)
Bogaerts, Xander (+1)
Ramirez, Jose (+1)
Machado, Manny (+3)
Harper, Bryce (+3)
Betts, Mooke (+5)
Age 29:
Judge, Aaron (-2)
Bryant, Kris (0)
Yelich, Christian (+1)
Trout, Mike (*) 98%
Age 30:
Cole, Gerrit (0)
Arenado, Nolan (0)
Age 31:
Rizzo, Anthony (-2)
Bumgarner, Madison (-2)
Heyward, Jason (-1)
Rendon, Anthony (-1)
Altuve, Jose (0)
Stanton, Giancarlo (+1)
Freeman, Freddie (+1)
Age 32:
Grandal, Tasmani (-2)
Strasburg, Stephen (-1)
Sale, Chris (+1)
Age 33:
Upton, Justin (-2)
DeGrom, Jacob (-2)
Goldschmidt, Paul (0)
Kershaw, Clayton (*) 84%
Age 34:
McCutchen, Andrew (+4)
Posey, Buster (*) 55%
Age 35:
Price, David (-2)
Donaldson, Josh (-2)
Longoria, Evan (*) 44%
Age 36:
Scherzer, Max (*) 59%
Age 37:
Votto, Joey (*) 47%
Greinke, Zack (*) 60%
Age 38:
Molina, Yadier (*) 40%
Cano, Robinson (*) 46%
Cabrera, Miguel (*) 69%
Verlander, Justin (*) 74%
Age 41ish:
Pujols, Albert (*) 85%

There you go, see you in 16 games, or never again.

07-23-2021, 01:51 PM	#1
Silent George Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 3,147	HOF Pace Tracker I've posted about this before, but as a HOF collector, and a data analyst, I built a system to track what players are close to a HOF career. I update this 10 times a season (approx every 16 games) and today is the day, and I thought I'd post it here for anyone interested. The methodology is that I took every HOF elected as a player who had a normal MLB career (so not Monte Irvin, Satchel Paige) and I made an age based amalgam of what a hall of famer looks like. I then took the 33% as a pretty safe "This player has had enough of a career that there will be a debate," distributed it by age, and tracked it to todays players. "It" is Fangraphs War, which is currently clearly better than Baseball Reference WAR. End of discussion. The 33% Hall of famer has 52.5 career WAR. So they are significantly better than Harold Baines, but not in the Babe Ruth conversation (and for the record, have more career WAR than Sandy Koufax). This is in no way an argument that these players will get in. Or that the methodology is perfect. Or that your "eyes" and "guy" are wrong. And it's not saying the it's the Hall of WAR, and it doesn't know who has beaten their wife or been suspended for Roids, and it really doesn't care what you think of WAR, because it's creator knows it's a pretty crappy stat, but also pretty much the best we have for measuring everything across baseball. 30-50 active players a year make the Hall of Fame eventually, and that number only grows. I made it just to make it easier to identify who that 30-50 might be for my own PC. You can burn it, or turn it into the FBI, or cancel me, or whatever if you'd like. Players listed are the ones within 2 years of the 33% HOF Alamgam. Meaning if a player is 26 and listed as a (-2) it means they've hit the WAR threshold of a 24 year old. I use 2 years to make sure no one sneaks up on me. Players with big years can advance quickly. Players with a () have already made it to the WAR limit. I'll put a % next to them to show their actual percentile against real hall of famers at their age, not the amalgam (I track a lot of things). Also: I have no idea how to track closers. I think about this every day. No position adjustments. The point is to cast a wide net, not specifically come up with who is worthy. I'm not making any declaration about any player. I just came up with a personal system for tracking, and let the math play out as it does. You do not have to choose to savage me for "thinking" Bryce Harper is a HOF. It's just a calculation. It's nothing personal towards you or your favorite or least favorite player. I can say all that and know I'll still get attacked. Oh well. I'll add updates every 16 games if people are interested. Players: Age 20: Franco, Wander (-2) Age 21: Patino, Luis (-2) Weathers, Ryan (-2) Age 22: Gimenez, Andres (-2) Garcia, Deivi (-2) Sanchez, Sixto (-2) Crochet, Gerrit (-2) Carlson, Dylan (-2) Baddoo, Akil (-2) Guerrero Jr., Vlad (0) Tatis Jr., Fernando (+2) Soto, Juan (+3) Age 23: Robert, Luis (-2) Anderson, Ian (-2) Rogers, Trevor (-2) Soroka, Mike (-1) Bichette, Bo (-1) Acuna Jr., Ronald (+2) Age 24: Arraez, Luis (-2) Grisham, Trent (-2) Alvarez, Yordan (-2) Urias, Julio (-1) Torres, Gleyber (-1) Devers, Rafael (0) Albies, Ozzie (+1) Age 25: Keller, Brad (-2) Adames, Willy (-2) Flaherty, Jack (-2) Bellinger, Cody (0) Age 26: Ohtani, Shohei (-2) Buehler, Walker (-2) Moncada, Yoan (-1) Bieber, Shane (-1) Marquez, German (-1) Correa, Carlos (+1) Age 27: Marte, Ketel (-2) Olson, Matt (-2) Seager, Cory (-1) Bregman, Alex (0) Lindor, Francisco (+2) Age 28: Chapman, Matt (-2) Syndergaard, Noah (-2) Story, Trevor (-2) Turner, Trea (-1) Nola, Aaron (-1) Bogaerts, Xander (+1) Ramirez, Jose (+1) Machado, Manny (+3) Harper, Bryce (+3) Betts, Mooke (+5) Age 29: Judge, Aaron (-2) Bryant, Kris (0) Yelich, Christian (+1) Trout, Mike () 98% Age 30: Cole, Gerrit (0) Arenado, Nolan (0) Age 31: Rizzo, Anthony (-2) Bumgarner, Madison (-2) Heyward, Jason (-1) Rendon, Anthony (-1) Altuve, Jose (0) Stanton, Giancarlo (+1) Freeman, Freddie (+1) Age 32: Grandal, Tasmani (-2) Strasburg, Stephen (-1) Sale, Chris (+1) Age 33: Upton, Justin (-2) DeGrom, Jacob (-2) Goldschmidt, Paul (0) Kershaw, Clayton () 84% Age 34: McCutchen, Andrew (+4) Posey, Buster () 55% Age 35: Price, David (-2) Donaldson, Josh (-2) Longoria, Evan () 44% Age 36: Scherzer, Max () 59% Age 37: Votto, Joey () 47% Greinke, Zack () 60% Age 38: Molina, Yadier () 40% Cano, Robinson () 46% Cabrera, Miguel () 69% Verlander, Justin () 74% Age 41ish: Pujols, Albert (*) 85% There you go, see you in 16 games, or never again.