Topps out---Fanatics in

[pewe]

Originally Posted by jjcan

Agree, The Brand is Fanatics. Fanatics Brand is worth 18+ Billion Dollars.

Fanatics’ Brand itself is $18B?

I can’t think of any Fanatics branded product that is well known. I vaguely know they have some clothing… but don’t think I even know where I could buy them. They certainly don’t advertise broadly like other top brands.

What am I missing?

Now, I certainly recognize some brands they purchased, and allowed to remain independent. I like ‘47 brand clothing, for instance.


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[SearchPatrol]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Strange take. Fanatics shoveling massive dollars for rights, all to provide customers more choices in the end? That's not how monopolies behave. With all of its exclusive deals, Fanatics is shaping up to be exactly that.

But does Fanatics want to buy the cards OR the distribution of the cards? I don't believe Fanatics makes anything? I think what will happen is that Fanatics gets first dibs on all products. Topps will make flagship and Fanatics will make a deal that it gets as much product as it wants for 30% over cost. Now, the costs could be much lower because Topps doesn't need a MLB license. Then Fanatics could buy all the product and sell for double the price (or more). Then sell directly to Local card shops. Make nothing and get the profits, not bad.

[Mister2Bits]

I wonder when Fanatics breaks their silence and make a public statement on what they intend to do with the license. 20 years is a long time and this is groundbreaking news with serious and major ramifications across the hobby.

[val47]

One thing I fear is the LCSs, I doubt Fanatics will be able to deliver the mount of wax a regular store needs to stay afloat with all the breakers ripping nonstop

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because having an exclusive license doesn't guarantee that people will buy your products. You still have to create products that collectors want to buy and price them appropriately.

Not sure if this is the only group necessary considering most people here mostly want to FLIP and not collect per se.

Fanatics can start by appealing to the lowest hanging fruit - the gamblers and flippers who aren’t as discerning or interested in product design, etc because they’re not as interested in collecting.

[Rooftop]

Originally Posted by pewe

Totally… BTW if you are interested, this is a fun primer on quantum supremacy vs. cryptography: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.00200.pdf

Let’s say you are too pessimistic and it’s more like 12 month doubling. Because we get advances in number of qubits AND algorithms in parallel.

Well, use of many crypto functions scale in difficulty at exponential rates. For instance the difficulty of solving asymmetric encryption (pretty common) with conventional P-space computers (ie what we use today) is N/2, whereas an NP-space quantum computer would solve it in N^(1/2).

Moving to larger bit-space is relatively easy, so staying ahead is also relatively easy.

This is before we even consider moving to NP-hard space. Which is not really required, yet, but could be to remove quantum mathematical advantage. Or at least until we can operate multidimensional qubits

BTW my real concern is at the national level arms race: decrypting the HUGE surveillance data warehouses… that’s where we need to see how quickly quantum supremacy starts allowing old communications to be simply decrypted. Hopefully we are genuinely staying 30+ years ahead, rendering the accessible time window of our personal and government secrets to be a moot point.


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What's this in Layman's terms?

[SearchPatrol]

Originally Posted by val47

One thing I fear is the LCSs, I doubt Fanatics will be able to deliver the mount of wax a regular store needs to stay afloat with all the breakers ripping nonstop

I think this will be BETTER for LCS. I think the problem might end up being the same problem that LCS had in the late 90's. Fanatics will make dealers buy a crap load of wax to get the really good stuff. People, late 90's is coming back. Multiple card companies will make MLB cards. If you own a LCS and want wax, you will also have to buy TOPPS, UD and Panini, and almost EVERY product. Every week you will be writing a big fat check to Fanatics.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

What's this in Layman's terms?

We will all be OK


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[whitmm]

Originally Posted by Timsterino

You may want to take a marketing course or two. Brand recognition matters. Fanatics isn’t a legacy brand in the trading card space. You are comparing them to Leaf and Onyx. Enough said.

I understand marketing just fine. I never said brand recognition doesn't matter. By having the exclusive license, they are shutting Topps and Panini out of making any branded cards for the pro level. Sports cards are sports cards. And when you take the two biggest brands out, that gives you a huge advantage. They don't need to be a legacy brand in the trading card space. They are known in the sports card community already through their partnerships with Panini already, producing Fanatics only mega boxes. And they are a huge name in the sports memorabilia and clothing market. That brand recognition will carry over, especially when they are the only company that can produce licensed cards.

And I'm comparing them to Leaf and Onyx, because those are the two companies right now that are producing cards without a league or PA license.

[clsports]

Originally Posted by SearchPatrol

But does Fanatics want to buy the cards OR the distribution of the cards? I don't believe Fanatics makes anything? I think what will happen is that Fanatics gets first dibs on all products. Topps will make flagship and Fanatics will make a deal that it gets as much product as it wants for 30% over cost. Now, the costs could be much lower because Topps doesn't need a MLB license. Then Fanatics could buy all the product and sell for double the price (or more). Then sell directly to Local card shops. Make nothing and get the profits, not bad.

This makes sense. If this is the case then could they contract multiple manufacturers of cards for them to sell/distribute? They own the licensing and can subcontract as many card producers as they need. Maybe even overseas production and distribution??

[1000 Sport Zonk]

Yeah once Fanatics is in full effect and (lets assume) selling cards in retail stores, they wont need substantial brand recognition because they will be the only sports cards in the Card section (and UD Hockey). They will have the photos of players in full uniforms on the boxes and packs and thats what will matter.

And if by that time whomever is interested in NBA, NFL, or MLB cards and isnt aware that Fanatics has taken over -- probably never heard of Topps anyways because they are a six year old or never cared about the hobby and will just assume Fanatics is as valid as anyone!

[Raleigh504]

Read most of this, but was thinking about next years product for Topps.

People talk about how the print run is already so high and that the rookie class is trash (this year). For next year with Wander going to be headlining a lot of products, you know the print run will be astronomical for Topps to get some money back. I doubt they will care about destroying the hobby or running the presses since they probably feel slighted and are pissed with MLB. Unless they are numbered, I can see base cards being printed so much that they will be worthless since there is so many of them.

[marterburn]

I simply cannot imagine Fanatics does this without established Brands. As it was just mentioned they have announced nothing as far as plans, so we'll see.

Will all three major sports in bed with one comapny for 'exclusive licensed professional sports trading cards' -- there will definitely be some anti-trust defense in their future.

Keep in mind that they can call it whatever they want, but without any brands on board, you're going to get names even stupider than 'Mosaic' and 'Strata'. The names like 'Chrome' and 'Heritage', and also things like 'Refractor', and '1st Bowman' (maybe even 1st XX) are all IP, and all things collectors clearly care greatly about.

One thing the Fanatics should have right away is the RC shield. Based on both UD & Topps using it back in 2006-2009, I believe that one is owned by MLB/MLBPA.

Also as it was just mentioned it took Panini a long time to become even as popular as they are now, and without established brands it'll take even longer for them. Even Panini had established brands to help them along.

Fanatics now wears the crown, but of what that crown will be wrought remains to be seen.

[MoreToppsPlease]

I’m sure you’d agree though that “keeping ahead of quantum developments” isn’t a solution to the problem of quantum overcoming crypto, it’s just a strategy.

Originally Posted by pewe

Totally… BTW if you are interested, this is a fun primer on quantum supremacy vs. cryptography: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.00200.pdf

Let’s say you are too pessimistic and it’s more like 12 month doubling. Because we get advances in number of qubits AND algorithms in parallel.

Well, use of many crypto functions scale in difficulty at exponential rates. For instance the difficulty of solving asymmetric encryption (pretty common) with conventional P-space computers (ie what we use today) is N/2, whereas an NP-space quantum computer would solve it in N^(1/2).

Moving to larger bit-space is relatively easy, so staying ahead is also relatively easy.

This is before we even consider moving to NP-hard space. Which is not really required, yet, but could be to remove quantum mathematical advantage. Or at least until we can operate multidimensional qubits

BTW my real concern is at the national level arms race: decrypting the HUGE surveillance data warehouses… that’s where we need to see how quickly quantum supremacy starts allowing old communications to be simply decrypted. Hopefully we are genuinely staying 30+ years ahead, rendering the accessible time window of our personal and government secrets to be a moot point.


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[whitmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because having an exclusive license doesn't guarantee that people will buy your products. You still have to create products that collectors want to buy and price them appropriately.

Yes, people will have to buy a Fanatics product if they want current year cards.

But at the same time, the hobby has so much history, and so many products already out there, that people will have plenty of other collecting options if they do not like Fanatics products or price points.

Speaking just for myself, only 5-10% of my annual hobby spending is on current year releases.

That's true of the industry now as well. And current year stuff is a huge market, maybe not for you. Because rookies and first year cards tend to be the driving force for a majority of the selling market, and the prospecting.

In my mind, I separate the collectors and the investors/flippers/prospectors (those doing it to make money). Unlicensed cards simply don't compare in terms of value to licensed cards in most cases. When Topps and Panini are no longer able to produce baseball cards, Fanatics doesn't need a long legacy or history, they are going to have the only baseball cards featuring the pro players and logos. There's so much new money and new investors/flippers in the market that don't care about the history, they care about making money. There might be more money in vintage, but there's more people in modern.

Fanatics also has roughly 5 years to start building their brand up. And even sooner with the MLBPA license going exclusive in 2023.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by marterburn

I simply cannot imagine Fanatics does this without established Brands. As it was just mentioned they have announced nothing as far as plans, so we'll see.

Will all three major sports in bed with one comapny for 'exclusive licensed professional sports trading cards' -- there will definitely be some anti-trust defense in their future.

Keep in mind that they can call it whatever they want, but without any brands on board, you're going to get names even stupider than 'Mosaic' and 'Strata'. The names like 'Chrome' and 'Heritage', and also things like 'Refractor', and '1st Bowman' (maybe even 1st XX) are all IP, and all things collectors clearly care greatly about.

One thing the Fanatics should have right away is the RC shield. Based on both UD & Topps using it back in 2006-2009, I believe that one is owned by MLB/MLBPA.

Also as it was just mentioned it took Panini a long time to become even as popular as they are now, and without established brands it'll take even longer for them. Even Panini had established brands to help them along.

Fanatics now wears the crown, but of what that crown will be wrought remains to be seen.

We'll see, but its pretty easy to make different tier products, this is the base one, this is your shiny one, this is your super premium one, this one is for crazy patches and autos (maybe they call it player's collection). Its not hard for them to come up with new names and make it consistent across all three sports, people will catch on fast. They could also very well end up buying topps IP, but I can see them going in a new direction.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

I’m sure you’d agree though that “keeping ahead of quantum developments” isn’t a solution to the problem of quantum overcoming crypto, it’s just a strategy.

I’m not sure I’d agree… I think we’ve seen an increasing belief by IT security experts (and other IT ops topics) that assumed obsolescence and failure resilience is a more reliable strategy.

This is as opposed to thinking we can engineer an unbreakable / completely reliable system.


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[RaceDog]

I really hope there is a continuation of the Topps brand. I have a collection of Topps base Tigers all the way back to 1952. The complete base set of Topps Tigers is the highlight of my PC and I will be disappointed if I cannot continue this until my demise.

[spuds1961]

The only thing that really sucks is the limbo this puts collectors in waiting to see what the end game is.

[BigRhino]

I wonder if Fanatics has done their due diligence and studied the down years of this hobby. They are making this big move when everything is going crazy and everything sells out immediately, but it cant stay that way forever. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out tho.

Also will be interesting how panini and topps handle this. It's funny, I don't feel bad at all for panini b/c of all of their price gouging and shady practices recently but topps I feel bad for since they have kept their prices somewhat more reasonable and things like the montgomery club show that they do value collectors

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by BigRhino

I wonder if Fanatics has done their due diligence and studied the down years of this hobby. They are making this big move when everything is going crazy and everything sells out immediately, but it cant stay that way forever. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out tho.

Also will be interesting how panini and topps handle this. It's funny, I don't feel bad at all for panini b/c of all of their price gouging and shady practices recently but topps I feel bad for since they have kept their prices somewhat more reasonable and things like the montgomery club show that they do value collectors

Nice show Topps puts on valuing what the 2000 or so collectors in the MC? Meanwhile most everyone else banged their heads on the wall fruitlessly entering those lotteries.

I'd say same it's the same lack of business acumen that caused its management to be completely blindsided.

[BigRhino]

Originally Posted by Pacmeyer

Nice show Topps puts on valuing what the 2000 or so collectors in the MC? Meanwhile most everyone else banged their heads on the wall fruitlessly entering those lotteries.

I'd say same it's the same lack of business acumen that caused its management to be completely blindsided.

If the club were open to too many people it would defeat the whole purpose and be useless. Topps wasnt selling items starting from 20k downward like panini b/c they know it will alienate ppl longterm.
Them getting blindsided had nothing to do with their business acumen imo, it was just a competitor with a close connection to mlb that made an offer they couldnt refuse. Literally nothing topps could have done to prevent this

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by BigRhino

If the club were open to too many people it would defeat the whole purpose and be useless. Topps wasnt selling items starting from 20k downward like panini b/c they know it will alienate ppl longterm.
Them getting blindsided had nothing to do with their business acumen imo, it was just a competitor with a close connection to mlb that made an offer they couldnt refuse. Literally nothing topps could have done to prevent this

I never expected Topps to open up the club, in its existing form, to an unlimited number of members. But I'm sure there are more than a few collectors who don't get why lotteries and online sales needed to be open to both the public and club members. Wasn't the point to allow customers a chance to buy who didn't have access to the club allotment? Makes sense but I guess that's too much to expect.

Anyway, it's nitpicking at this point but if Topps couldn't foresee the bad taste left in so many customers' mouths, no way they'd ever see Fanatics swoop in. Maybe it could never have cobbled together an offer to beat Fanatics but it's clear from chairman Andy Redman, bemoaning Topps was somehow betrayed by MLB, that its leadership never even fathomed such a possibility.

[jlklemp]

I'm sure Upper Deck is feeling pretty good about their decision to go all-in on hockey right about now.

I guess time will tell if this Fanatics takeover is good for the hobby or not. The golden age of cinema was a result of the monopoly the major studios had over all means of production and distribution in the early 20th century. There were obviously drawbacks to the studio system, but some of the product that came out as a result will live forever as all-time greats. Maybe Fanatics will give us some amazing product, too. Fingers crossed!

[sixtyfeet]

I can't believe this is 79 pages in and barely anybody has grasped what Fanatics is how this probably plays into their strategy. Think of Fanatics as like a giant online mall. They own the mall and a lot of the stores and operate/license others that people buy things from, some from brick and mortar but mostly online. While they do brand some of their own things, they are not the brand. They license and retail. They don't really make things. They almost certainly aren't going to make baseball cards. They are going to use the license as another store at their mall where the company or license they own does the work and they make all the money. This is part of the reason why their customer service, especially in their game worn departments are #@#@#@#@. They are disconnected between product and consumer.

If you think they won't figure out a way to leverage the Topps name to sell their baseball card products in their online mall you are all crazy whether it's buying Topps or a complicated licensing deal of some sort it's unlikely the Topps name disappears, your money will just be going to a different place, it will be more expensive, more watered down, and the printing presses will most assuredly run wild.