First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs

[salas1991]

Originally Posted by thebird

Any thoughts on a case of hobby vs a case of jumbo for this? Which has the better odds for parallels?

Jumbo, esp for the black parallels which aren't in hobby. I think there's something in hobby that's not in jumbos but nothing I've ever really been interested in.

[LVDan]

Black parallels are in both hobby and jumbo. Clear/10 land in hobby only. The biggest difference is one auto per jumbo box and I think just one or two per hobby case.


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[jmweb]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Black parallels are in both hobby and jumbo. Clear/10 land in hobby only. The biggest difference is one auto per jumbo box and I think just one or two per hobby case.


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True, but the odds of getting a colored Auto from a Hobby case are greater than from a Jumbo.. personally, i try to get both (hobby and Jumbo) just to cover my bases..

[Cardsfan84]

Originally Posted by thebird

Any thoughts on a case of hobby vs a case of jumbo for this? Which has the better odds for parallels?

The last few years have really been a toss-up with pack out issues and significant odds adjustments from one year to the next and one series to the next. So to answer that question honestly, you would have to wait to see the parallels. My opinion is Topps seems to be pushing flagship to the breakers now and therefore Jumbo could be a good hedge if that happens.

[rwperu34]

Just scribbled some stuff re: the 2021 RC class. Ten of the top 13 are hitters...which is nice. This class should be able to rival 2018 on depth;

Player Age Team
Adell,Joe 22 Angels
Bohm,Alec 24 Phillies

Carlson,Dylan 22 Cardinals
Pache,Cristian 22 Braves
Bart,Joey 24 Giants C
Mountcastle,Ry 24 Orioles
Mize,Casey 24 Tigers P

Pearson,Nate 24 Blue Jays P
Madrigal,Nick 24 White Sox
Anderson,Ian 23 Braves P
Gimenez,Andres 22 Mets
Gacia,Luis 21 Nationals

Patino,Luis 21 Rays
Apostel,Sherten 22 Rangers
Taveras,Leody 22 Rangers
Paredes,Isaac 22 Tigers
Campusano,Luis 22 Padres
Ruiz,Kiebert 22 Dodgers C
Sanchez,Sixto 22 Marlins P
Chisholm,Jazz 23 Marlins
Sanchez,Jesus 23 Marlins
Singer,Brady 24 Royals P
White,Evan 25 Mariners
Schmidt,Clarke 25 Yankees P

Tejeda,Anderson 23 Rangers
Moniak,Mickey 23 Phillies
Huff,Sam 23 Rangers C
Florial,Estevan 23 Yankees
McKenzie,Triston 23 Indians P
Jones,Jahmai 23 Angels
Cameron,Daz 24 Tigers
Smith,Pavin 25 Diamondbacks
Peterson,David 25 Mets P
Harrison,Monte 25 Marlins
Dalbec,Bobby 26 Red Sox
White,Mitch 26 Dodgers P
Rooker,Brent 26 Twins

Held back for S2;
Hayes,Ke'bryan 24 Pirates
Kirilloff,Alex 23 Twins

[Middies31985]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Just scribbled some stuff re: the 2021 RC class. Ten of the top 13 are hitters...which is nice. This class should be able to rival 2018 on depth;

Player Age Team
Adell,Joe 22 Angels
Bohm,Alec 24 Phillies

Carlson,Dylan 22 Cardinals
Pache,Cristian 22 Braves
Bart,Joey 24 Giants C
Hayes,Ke'bryan 24 Pirates
Kirilloff,Alex 23 Twins
Mize,Casey 24 Tigers P

Pearson,Nate 24 Blue Jays P
Madrigal,Nick 24 White Sox
Anderson,Ian 23 Braves P
Gimenez,Andres 22 Mets
Gacia,Luis 21 Nationals

Apostel,Sherten 22 Rangers
Taveras,Leody 22 Rangers
Paredes,Isaac 22 Tigers
Campusano,Luis 22 Padres
Ruiz,Kiebert 22 Dodgers C
Sanchez,Sixto 22 Marlins P
Chisholm,Jazz 23 Marlins
Sanchez,Jesus 23 Marlins
Singer,Brady 24 Royals P
White,Evan 25 Mariners
Schmidt,Clarke 25 Yankees P

Tejeda,Anderson 23 Rangers
Moniak,Mickey 23 Phillies
Huff,Sam 23 Rangers C
Florial,Estevan 23 Yankees
McKenzie,Triston 23 Indians P
Jones,Jahmai 23 Angels
Cameron,Daz 24 Tigers
Smith,Pavin 25 Diamondbacks
Peterson,David 25 Mets P
Harrison,Monte 25 Marlins
Dalbec,Bobby 26 Red Sox
White,Mitch 26 Dodgers P
Rooker,Brent 26 Twins

I think they hold some of these back for Series 2 though.

If all these guys were in Series 1 then this would be an awesome case to jump in on a few presales.

[thebird]

Is it possible that we may see a really strong serie 1, 2 and update for 2021???

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

I think they hold some of these back for Series 2 though.

If all these guys were in Series 1 then this would be an awesome case to jump in on a few presales.

We're less than 2 months away from the release. I wonder when we see the checklist. I think for the last few releases the checklist came out just a few days before release, right?

[Trueblue]

Kirilloff is being held back for S2. He's on the sell sheet.

[ottobord]

Originally Posted by thebird

Is it possible that we may see a really strong serie 1, 2 and update for 2021???

Does Topps really control this? Or isn't this simply based on player performance? If rookies with no Topps flagship play great then we will have great releases, if not then trash.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by thebird

Is it possible that we may see a really strong serie 1, 2 and update for 2021???

Yes. Assuming a full season all 3 series should be pretty good at least.
S1 will have great RC depth
S2 will have at least Kiriloff and Hayes. If Wander makes the team outta ST he’ll probably get the Ron/GT/Vlad SP treatment.
Update will be update again

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Kirilloff is being held back for S2. He's on the sell sheet.

Looks like Hayes is too. As I was thinking about who they might hold back, Kirilloff made the most sense because he only played in the postseason. Otherwise it has been my experience that Topps tries to get guys in rather than hold back. That's still a very strong top 11.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Looks like Hayes is too. As I was thinking about who they might hold back, Kirilloff made the most sense because he only played in the postseason. Otherwise it has been my experience that Topps tries to get guys in rather than hold back. That's still a very strong top 11.

While I like kirilloff, I think the three main draws are the top 5-toolers: Adell, Carlson, Pache. They are all young and could develop 20/20 ability with a glove that plays at projected premium positions (once vets move over). The rest of the depth is great, but it's really gravy, as I think the mentioned three guys and a few playoff arms (Anderson-type guys) would've been enough to drive the release. Now we just wait for pack odds and hope they didn't do something irresponsible with the print run.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

While I like kirilloff, I think the three main draws are the top 5-toolers: Adell, Carlson, Pache. They are all young and could develop 20/20 ability with a glove that plays at projected premium positions (once vets move over). The rest of the depth is great, but it's really gravy, as I think the mentioned three guys and a few playoff arms (Anderson-type guys) would've been enough to drive the release. Now we just wait for pack odds and hope they didn't do something irresponsible with the print run.

Is that really the ceiling? You would hope at least one of these has a higher ceiling than that to get really excited about the release, wouldn't you?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by mcwildcats

Is that really the ceiling? You would hope at least one of these has a higher ceiling than that to get really excited about the release, wouldn't you?

Never said it was the ceiling, but 20/20 is pretty legit production and a fantastic outcome, especially as stolen bases decrease league wide. If you want to place 40/40 that's cool too. I won't disagree with you when there are five tools present.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mcwildcats

Is that really the ceiling? You would hope at least one of these has a higher ceiling than that to get really excited about the release, wouldn't you?

It depends if you're talking true talent or best season. If you're talking true talent a 20/20 player is high quality, even if a 20/20 season doesn't do much to move the needle.

Here's a list of guys who averaged 20 HR and 20 SB over their age 23-27 seasons in the last 20 years (using five year average as a proxy for true talent);

1) Hanely 23/33 AVG, 29/51 or 33/35 best.
2) McCutchen 23/24 AVG, 31/20 best (then won MVP the next year!)
3) CB Young, 23/20 AVG, 32/27 best
4) Sizemore, 25/26 AVG, 33/38 best (I used 22-26 for Grady since he barely played at 27. From 23-27 his AVG was 20/21).
5) Jose Ramirez, 24/21 AVG, 39/35 best. This one includes 2020.
6) CarGo, 24/21 AVG. 34/26 best.
7) Beltran, 25/32 AVG, 38/42 best.
8) Wright, 26/23 AVG, 30/34 best.
9) Mookie, 26/22 AVG, 32/30 best. This includes 20/20.
10) Matt Kemp, 27/27 AVG, 39/40 best.

As you can see a lot of guys who were in the 20s get over 30 in their big year. Of these 10 guys, 6 of them were hobby darlings at some point in their career and three more were definite stars. Only CB Young could be considered a hobby bust.

Another, easier way to do this is to just look at the Steamer projections for this year. I enjoyed making that list, but I don't know why I didn't just start here. Here's the guys who are projected for over 20 HR and over 20 SB for 2021;

Acuna, Tatis, Robert, Bichette, Mondesi. That is not exactly a group of nobodies. I have a few Mondesi 1st Chrome Autos...I invest a little bit in power/speed.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

It depends if you're talking true talent or best season. If you're talking true talent a 20/20 player is high quality, even if a 20/20 season doesn't do much to move the needle.

Here's a list of guys who averaged 20 HR and 20 SB over their age 23-27 seasons in the last 20 years (using five year average as a proxy for true talent);

1) Hanely 23/33 AVG, 29/51 or 33/35 best.
2) McCutchen 23/24 AVG, 31/20 best (then won MVP the next year!)
3) CB Young, 23/20 AVG, 32/27 best
4) Sizemore, 25/26 AVG, 33/38 best (I used 22-26 for Grady since he barely played at 27. From 23-27 his AVG was 20/21).
5) Jose Ramirez, 24/21 AVG, 39/35 best. This one includes 2020.
6) CarGo, 24/21 AVG. 34/26 best.
7) Beltran, 25/32 AVG, 38/42 best.
8) Wright, 26/23 AVG, 30/34 best.
9) Mookie, 26/22 AVG, 32/30 best. This includes 20/20.
10) Matt Kemp, 27/27 AVG, 39/40 best.

As you can see a lot of guys who were in the 20s get over 30 in their big year. Of these 10 guys, 6 of them were hobby darlings at some point in their career and three more were definite stars. Only CB Young could be considered a hobby bust.

Another, easier way to do this is to just look at the Steamer projections for this year. I enjoyed making that list, but I don't know why I didn't just start here. Here's the guys who are projected for over 20 HR and over 20 SB for 2021;

Acuna, Tatis, Robert, Bichette, Mondesi. That is not exactly a group of nobodies. I have a few Mondesi 1st Chrome Autos...I invest a little bit in power/speed.

Thanks for this. I was thinking along the lines of true talent and what that could mean for hobby love. I've probably been a bit too skeptical given how you've framed it all.

[salas1991]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Black parallels are in both hobby and jumbo. Clear/10 land in hobby only. The biggest difference is one auto per jumbo box and I think just one or two per hobby case.


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Huh, I could've sworn that at least at some point, black parallels weren't in hobby. Shows how often I ever buy hobby boxes!

[Dodgerfan74]

Looking forward to Los Angeles Dodgers World Series cards

[SaltyCracker]

Any word on who card #1 is yet? Will they have a massive break party again?

[thebird]

I wonder what Topps will have hobby priced at on theif website for the two minutes it is available? I think the price they had on Heritage high today was very fair.

[BALxORIOLESx]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Just scribbled some stuff re: the 2021 RC class. Ten of the top 13 are hitters...which is nice. This class should be able to rival 2018 on depth;

Player Age Team
Adell,Joe 22 Angels
Bohm,Alec 24 Phillies

Carlson,Dylan 22 Cardinals
Pache,Cristian 22 Braves
Bart,Joey 24 Giants C
Hayes,Ke'bryan 24 Pirates
Kirilloff,Alex 23 Twins
Mize,Casey 24 Tigers P

Pearson,Nate 24 Blue Jays P
Madrigal,Nick 24 White Sox
Anderson,Ian 23 Braves P
Gimenez,Andres 22 Mets
Gacia,Luis 21 Nationals

Apostel,Sherten 22 Rangers
Taveras,Leody 22 Rangers
Paredes,Isaac 22 Tigers
Campusano,Luis 22 Padres
Ruiz,Kiebert 22 Dodgers C
Sanchez,Sixto 22 Marlins P
Chisholm,Jazz 23 Marlins
Sanchez,Jesus 23 Marlins
Singer,Brady 24 Royals P
White,Evan 25 Mariners
Schmidt,Clarke 25 Yankees P

Tejeda,Anderson 23 Rangers
Moniak,Mickey 23 Phillies
Huff,Sam 23 Rangers C
Florial,Estevan 23 Yankees
McKenzie,Triston 23 Indians P
Jones,Jahmai 23 Angels
Cameron,Daz 24 Tigers
Smith,Pavin 25 Diamondbacks
Peterson,David 25 Mets P
Harrison,Monte 25 Marlins
Dalbec,Bobby 26 Red Sox
White,Mitch 26 Dodgers P
Rooker,Brent 26 Twins

Mountcastle.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BALxORIOLESx

Mountcastle.

Added. I put him between Bart and Mize.

I also moved Hayes and Kirilloff out since they're held back for S2.

[LVDan]

Luis Patino


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[Rjcollings1973]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Added. I put him between Bart and Mize.

I also moved Hayes and Kirilloff out since they're held back for S2.

They will hold several others back 100%!