2023 Bowman Pre-Order?

[bustsomewax]

This is sad. I'm not sure what I was expecting given the last 3 years, but I thought we were trending in a better direction. It will not stop until the breakers start to dry up.

[JRX]

With a 100+ deep auto checklist someone mentioned, and assuming equal pr which is totally no the case, you're looking at 400 for like a 3% chance at a Jones auto.

[lseecon]

Originally Posted by JRX

At 400 a jumbo box, it seems the only way anyone can make money on this is via breaking. Other than dumb lotto style luck.

Cards were not meant to be for "making money" thats why people have jobs and there is real estate and stocks to invest in.

Anything that weeds out those just buying sports cards to "make money" is awesome.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by lseecon

Cards were not meant to be for "making money" thats why people have jobs and there is real estate and stocks to invest in.

Anything that weeds out those just buying sports cards to "make money" is awesome.

Its more it costs 400 for what <$100 of cards? There's a massive discount between price and expected value.

[antmr7]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

This is sad. I'm not sure what I was expecting given the last 3 years, but I thought we were trending in a better direction. It will not stop until the breakers start to dry up.

I do not know if that will ever happen, or what it would take for it to happen.

I was watching some divisional breaks the other day for Gold Label and they were going for $30 a spot for each box. If they do a two box break someone is buying for $60 to get a chance at a card vs just buying the box for $150. Breakers are "selling" the box for $180 once they sell all 6 spots vs say getting $150 for selling it to one person. The markup is too huge for them to not be able to have the funds to keep paying the inflated prices

I miss the days of $60 Bowman boxes and cases for $720 with a 20 autograph checklist lol

[par578]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

This is sad. I'm not sure what I was expecting given the last 3 years, but I thought we were trending in a better direction. It will not stop until the breakers start to dry up.

I used to enjoy breaking wax-- those days are long gone. Sadly, it is a breaker's world now.

[lseecon]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its more it costs 400 for what <$100 of cards? There's a massive discount between price and expected value.

I dont disagree with that statement. Unfortunately that is the world of unopened. Lots of gamblers willing to pay way more than expected value for unopened

[atk825]

Originally Posted by lseecon

I dont disagree with that statement. Unfortunately that is the world of unopened. Lots of gamblers willing to pay way more than expected value for unopened

I'd guess the expected value is a lot higher than that but with a really high level of variance.

[Jaypers]

Very curious to find out Houdini's plans for this product.

What say you, Houds?

[AwesomeBrian]

Originally Posted by par578

I used to enjoy breaking wax-- those days are long gone. Sadly, it is a breaker's world now.

So by your own words, weren't you indeed a breaker yourself?

[WallyatJCCards]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I was told by a friend they would kick me in the nuts if I started buying wax again like a junky

how many did ya order? :-)

[par578]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

So by your own words, weren't you indeed a breaker yourself?

To me, breakers are the bane of the hobby. I used to buy a few boxes to rip for myself-- not to go online and sell lottery tickets to people hoping to hit the jackpot.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

So by your own words, weren't you indeed a breaker yourself?

What?

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by par578

To me, breakers are the bane of the hobby. I used to buy a few boxes to rip for myself-- not to go online and sell lottery tickets to people hoping to hit the jackpot.

But buying expensive boxes yourself is not purchasing lottery tickets to hit the jackpot?

Isn't every pack a lottery ticket? I don't understand this train of thought.

Someone buying "a few boxes" at $150 each or a guy picking up $450 of his team in breaks is the same gamble. Both are hoping to hit a rare card.

If you weren't, you'd just buy singles or completed sets for much cheaper right?

[AwesomeBrian]

Originally Posted by par578

To me, breakers are the bane of the hobby. I used to buy a few boxes to rip for myself-- not to go online and sell lottery tickets to people hoping to hit the jackpot.

Breakers give people options they never had before. Just buying a team, just buying a player. Getting a taste of what many can't afford in full. Nothing wrong with it. Breaking didn't start in 2020. How many of you complained about breakers in 2013? 2015? 2017?

[Grave252]

Ordered one Jumbo. I'd expect to get crushed, as is the case with 99% of wax, but I also know people vastly overpay for Bowman singles upon product release, so the return is easier to stomach in the first 2-3 weeks.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

Breakers give people options they never had before. Just buying a team, just buying a player. Getting a taste of what many can't afford in full. Nothing wrong with it. Breaking didn't start in 2020. How many of you complained about breakers in 2013? 2015? 2017?

Its almost like a paradox in that 30 people together can value a box at say 600, figure 20 a team while 1 person would value the box at say 100.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its almost like a paradox in that 30 people together can value a box at say 600, figure 20 a team while 1 person would value the box at say 100.

This is called innumeracy. Or mathematical illiteracy. Too many people only look at the cost basis for themselves to decide if it’s worth it.

$50 for a break where I can hit a $1M card? Sign me up!

The odds to hit that $1M are 1:1 million and my EV is only $2? Sign me up!

[kyle1707]

Seems like it went well

Status quo for me

Get the email. Got to site. Sold out

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its almost like a paradox in that 30 people together can value a box at say 600, figure 20 a team while 1 person would value the box at say 100.

I don't think there is a single breaker selling a $100 retail box for $600.

If there is, they aren't getting business.

[sportzluvr1]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Very curious to find out Houdini's plans for this product.

What say you, Houds?

Uh, I'll go with:

-Advertise as much as possible
-Fill/break as much as possible
-make as much as possible

And he ain't wrong to do it. Dude runs a great business at the detriment of the common breaker.

[par578]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

But buying expensive boxes yourself is not purchasing lottery tickets to hit the jackpot?

Isn't every pack a lottery ticket? I don't understand this train of thought.

Someone buying "a few boxes" at $150 each or a guy picking up $450 of his team in breaks is the same gamble. Both are hoping to hit a rare card.

If you weren't, you'd just buy singles or completed sets for much cheaper right?

The boxes I bought were not expensive-- that is the point. I never bought high end stuff-- mainly products like Bowman BB or Donruss FB. As I said, I enjoyed opening my own boxes-- that is a big part of the hobby for many of us (or, it was). Not just for high ticket cards (never have had much luck in that area), but for players on teams I root for.
I never expected to make my fortune opening a box of sports cards.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

I don't think there is a single breaker selling a $100 retail box for $600.

If there is, they aren't getting business.

No the point was the box costs 400 from topps, it really only has say 100 of value, yet in this example breakers can sell it for 600.

[par578]

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

Breakers give people options they never had before. Just buying a team, just buying a player. Getting a taste of what many can't afford in full. Nothing wrong with it. Breaking didn't start in 2020. How many of you complained about breakers in 2013? 2015? 2017?

Obviously other factors contributed to this runaway train (pandemic played a big role).

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

But buying expensive boxes yourself is not purchasing lottery tickets to hit the jackpot?

Isn't every pack a lottery ticket? I don't understand this train of thought.

Someone buying "a few boxes" at $150 each or a guy picking up $450 of his team in breaks is the same gamble. Both are hoping to hit a rare card.

If you weren't, you'd just buy singles or completed sets for much cheaper right?

The big difference is the guy picking up his team is usually paying 30-60% more for the box than the guys who buy the whole box for themselves.

There’s a price premium to only getting cards of your team in the break, and that has driven the price up on wax for everyone.