TJ Watch… Spencer Strider on the clock

[fabiani12333]

Four-seam fastball pitches -- 2023 season (94.2 MPH league average):

91-93 MPH: .383 wOBA; 5.3% HR% (565 HR / 10,675 BIP)

94 MPH: .345 wOBA: 3.7% HR% (30 HR / 819 BIP)

95-97 MPH: .324 wOBA; 3.8% HR% (509 HR /13,280 BIP)

Conclusion: Above average velocity four-seam fastballs are more effective at getting outs and preventing home runs -- duh.

Guys, stop speculating and using anecdotes -- this crap can be quantified.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

If you're not hitting your spots, you're playing in some minor league city.

Actually, if you throw 98 MPH or higher, you can apparently get away with throwing pitches down the middle:

2021-2023 -- 98 mph four-seam and two-seam fastballs in the "heart" of the plate: .272 wOBA, 3.1% HR% (13 HR / 420 BIP)

League average rates (2021-2023): .314 wOBA, 3.5% HR% (17,027 HR / 491,494 BIP)

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by coachnip13

Tell the person who came up with the range, then, while claiming that no one in MLB works at 82-94. Don't come after the person who corrected it.

Over 700 pitchers threw at least 100 pitches in Major League Baseball in 2023. Most of them max out at around 94. His claim is that 94 gets hit into the seats. Clearly it doesn't. That's the extent of the point. No one was talking about the top .01 of the league. You just went on that tangent by yourself.

You injected yourself into this. If you don't get it, really, I don't care.

I've got 712 pitchers last season with at least 100 pitches thrown, with 546 of them throwing at least one fastball (4-seam, 2-seam or cutter) at least 95 mph -- 77%.

[jduds]

I came to commiserate the news, but I don't know what the last few pages devolved into. Looks like five different debates talking past each other. Blech. I'm still trying to figure out what to do with Strider long-term. I'm not planning on selling as a Braves fan, but I'm on the fence about buying in a few months. I'll stay away completely, target a couple of really nice cards, or go crazy and stock up. My piles of other pitchers suggest which one I'll choose, but maybe I've learned my lesson.

[oldgoldy97]

I thought his horse-sized thighs would have helped him.

Pitchers throw with their legs, after all.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by whitmm

You are confusing increased velocity with maximum effort and maximum velocity.

Maybe read all the comments before you start responding, because I've addressed this

Spencer Strider can throw 100+. The fact that his fastball average sits 2-3 mph slower means he's not throwing every pitch with max velocity. And again, fastballs aren't the pitch causing the injuries

His max velocity and average velocity depends on his start:

3 of his 5 100 MPH pitches last season were in one game -- 7/15

He averaged 98 MPH or above on his 4-seamer in 3 of his first 4 starts last season, but only did it twice more the rest of the season.

He did seem to ramp it up a bit more in 2-strike counts -- 97.8 MPH average velocity 4-seamer with two strikes vs 97.0 MPH in all other counts.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Sketch seems to be of the mindset that pitchers are only lasting 5 innings because they starting trying to throw every pitch as hard as possible first, leading to more bullpen usage. And that's just not true. Starting pitchers starting throw less innings because a 100 years of data showed that hitter tend to do better the more times they face a pitcher, with a significant jump from the 2nd to 3rd time.

It's both:

League averages -- starting pitchers:

2010: 91.7 MPH (4-seam), 6.0 IP/GS, 17.6 K%, 3.82 Pit/PA

2023: 93.9 MPH, 5.1 IP/GS, 22.1 K%, 3.91 Pit/PA

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Here’s a better way to look at it; here’s a fun roster construction exercise. You can build a rotation, take the 5 best starters in baseball and that’s your real and let them go 9 and assume 9 risk of injury form pitch count. What’s your staff era 3.5?

Now give me the 14 best relievers in baseball and nobody cna throw more then 2 innings the entire year… what’s my staff era 1.5-2 max?

Now go simulate a 162 game season and see what optimal
Approach to roster construction is

Interesting -- 2023 league averages:

6th inning:
SP: .332 wOBA
RP: .316 wOBA

7th inning:
SP: .317 wOBA
RP: .314 wOBA

When a starter is dealing going into the 7th, you might as well let him pitch and save the pen for another day.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Interesting -- 2023 league averages:

6th inning:
SP: .332 wOBA
RP: .316 wOBA

7th inning:
SP: .317 wOBA
RP: .314 wOBA

When a starter is dealing going into the 7th, you might as well let him pitch and save the pen for another day.

This is extremely biased sample. Ignoring the fact that 7th inning wOBA will benefit from coming out mid inning and have relievers gets you out of jams and the fact that elit relievers have wOBA in the low 2 to upper.200
Range it’s a biased sample because you are taking the wOBA of all relievers and not thr wOBA of all starters. If you look at gjys they lead league in IP (those most likely to throw 7th) they are all studs and your worst relievers are not going to come in, in hi leverage spots to win game (example your closer pitches in close situations)..

[jduds]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

I thought his horse-sized thighs would have helped him.

Pitchers throw with their legs, after all.

I told myself that pretty much every time I bought a Strider card.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

This is extremely biased sample. Ignoring the fact that 7th inning wOBA will benefit from coming out mid inning and have relievers gets you out of jams and the fact that elit relievers have wOBA in the low 2 to upper.200
Range it’s a biased sample because you are taking the wOBA of all relievers and not thr wOBA of all starters. If you look at gjys they lead league in IP (those most likely to throw 7th) they are all studs and your worst relievers are not going to come in, in hi leverage spots to win game (example your closer pitches in close situations)..

I don't get how starters coming out of games mid inning -- nevermind relievers also coming out of games mid inning -- would skew wOBA much.

2023 league average wOBA:

SP: .323

RP: .312

An equilibrium is almost being achieved.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I don't get how starters coming out of games mid inning -- nevermind relievers also coming out of games mid inning -- would skew wOBA much.

.

Starter walks 2 guys, you bring in reliever with sub 2 era and 99
Mph sinker that gets lots of ground balls. In theory reliever will allow far fewer inherited runners to score then starter had he remained in.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I don't get how starters coming out of games mid inning -- nevermind relievers also coming out of games mid inning -- would skew wOBA much.

2023 league average wOBA:

SP: .323

RP: .312

An equilibrium is almost being achieved.

Here’s top 20, i see 18 relievers. There are are 18 relievers in 21-40 and I think 14 relievers in next 20 spots. So just over top 80%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Starter walks 2 guys, you bring in reliever with sub 2 era and 99
Mph sinker that gets lots of ground balls. In theory reliever will allow far fewer inherited runners to score then starter had he remained in.

That doesn't relate to wOBA, though -- that's ERA or runs allowed.

Whether a starter left during the 7th inning or after it, their wOBA is based on their performance while they pitched -- not on how effective the pitcher who relieved them was.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Here’s top 20, i see 18 relievers. There are are 18 relievers in 21-40 and I think 14 relievers in next 20 spots. So just over top 80%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

But most relievers aren't the top relievers, especially the mid-inning relievers.

Yes, the best relievers are the best one-inning pitchers. But in the aggregate, the performance of starters and relievers is reaching an equilibrium.

[oldgoldy97]

Who gives up first?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Who gives up first?

The rest of us

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by JRX

The rest of us

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But most relievers aren't the top relievers, especially the mid-inning relievers.

Yes, the best relievers are the best one-inning pitchers. But in the aggregate, the performance of starters and relievers is reaching an equilibrium.

If you sort by wOBA or ERA and look at top 90 spots (top
3 pitchers per team) there are like 8/9 starters on that list. So 90% of top 100 pitchers (in a 1 inning sample) are relievers. Also over 2/3 of mob teams don’t have a single SP in top 100 for wOBA or ERA.

If you are talking about worst relievers, inning eaters/long relievers then yes they are equal to or worse then starters jm sure but they also aren’t pitching in innings that really matter

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

If you sort by wOBA or ERA and look at top 90 spots (top
3 pitchers per team) there are like 8/9 starters on that list. So 90% of top 100 pitchers (in a 1 inning sample) are relievers. Also over 2/3 of mob teams don’t have a single SP in top 100 for wOBA or ERA.

If you are talking about worst relievers, inning eaters/long relievers then yes they are equal to or worse then starters jm sure but they also aren’t pitching in innings that really matter

And every starter that pitches after the 5th innining isn't pitching in high leverage situations.

The more innings that bullpens need to pitch, the less effective overall they become, including higher leverage situations.

Teams deploy their best relievers strategically -- they can't use them in every game and every higher leverage situation.

2023 season -- 7th inning with tying or go-ahead run on base, at the plate, or on deck:

SP: .315 wOBA
RP: .300 wOBA

So a difference, but not a big one.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Interesting -- 2023 league averages:

6th inning:
SP: .332 wOBA
RP: .316 wOBA

7th inning:
SP: .317 wOBA
RP: .314 wOBA

When a starter is dealing going into the 7th, you might as well let him pitch and save the pen for another day.

Do you have sample size for this information?

I ask, because I'd venture to guess the sample for starters in the 7th is much lower than the 6th. And those starters that made it into the 7th are most likely the lower portion of the 6th.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Do you have sample size for this information?

I ask, because I'd venture to guess the sample for starters in the 7th is much lower than the 6th. And those starters that made it into the 7th are most likely the lower portion of the 6th.

SP:
6th inning: 8,608 AB
7th inning: 2,822 AB

RP:
6th inning: 10 042 AB
7th inning: 15,559 AB

So, obviously, only when a starter is dealing or a team has a big lead are they pitching into the 7th.

[fabiani12333]

2021-2023 -- 7th inning with tying or go-ahead run on base, at the plate, or on deck:

SP: 4,002 AB -- .315 wOBA

RP: 15,593 AB -- .300 wOBA

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

And every starter that pitches after the 5th innining isn't pitching in high leverage situations.

The more innings that bullpens need to pitch, the less effective overall they become, including higher leverage situations.

Teams deploy their best relievers strategically -- they can't use them in every game and every higher leverage situation.

2023 season -- 7th inning with tying or go-ahead run on base, at the plate, or on deck:

.

I agree with this but I guess the Conter would be if this is a problem it’s becuaaw of poor roster construction. If we look at a team like the rays (not this year so far) they both employ openers and have like 6-7 guys that were more effective then mclanahan and Glasgow (who are ch young caliber pitchers). So if they have 7 guys they can bring in that cna give you cy young caliber innings you would happily use those over your # 3/4/5 starter in almost all scenarios.

Which I guess is my original point, going forward I think you’ll see there emphasis focus on this type of roster construction as the pool of available guys with elite stuff grows by the year.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

SP:
6th inning: 8,608 AB
7th inning: 2,822 AB

RP:
6th inning: 10 042 AB
7th inning: 15,559 AB

So, obviously, only when a starter is dealing or a team has a big lead are they pitching into the 7th.

Makes sense. Managers aren't robots. While there are optimal choices, based on thousands of samples, there's still gut instinct and feel that go into managing games.

Because games aren't played on paper.