The Official Options Thread

[lane121]

Consumer sentiment at 10

SPX top 5450, key level 5400, bottom 5350.
Partial gap @ 5376 since some was filled yesterday to the 5402.51 SPX low?

Watching SPY 539.50 and 540 area- 539.97 1hr 21EMA
Break and hold below 539.50 for more downside

[ajlaxmn]

6/12/24 – Got into SPY 542 Puts at 10:20 with three red candles, SPX rejecting previous close, SPY rejecting previous close, trend was red. Sold 4 contracts when SPX got close to 5409 ATR, sold at 5410. Held the last two runners even SPX pushed up because volume was showing a lot of sellers with multiple red candles. Stopped out later than in profits when SPX pushed back up and eventually broke above previous close, although it eventually bork back down below and almost down to 5400. Couple hundred in profit. Would have been better to hold for full touch of 5409 ATR, however market wasn’t making large moves so wanted to lock in some profits close to 5409 when SPX got to 5410. Good trade would have been earlier when SPX rejected ATR, volume was red, SPY was rejecting VWAP and broke below ATR, however not sure if this would have been as A+.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Josh611

I’ve done pretty well with catching fall knives when they are way oversold on the daily and weekly.

TDOC calls looks good about a month out. Probably no higher than the $11 strike. This is oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly.

Purrely like this on only the technicals. Know absolutely nothing about the fundamentals. Other than I’m assuming they’re doing awful.

Originally Posted by Blazed

I like this one.

I think I’ll try a light position and see what happens. Should get a test of the mean at the very least.

Thanks for sharing.

Trying this out on paper trade, 7/12 expiration, 11 strike.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by lane121

Consumer sentiment at 10

SPX top 5450, key level 5400, bottom 5350.
Partial gap @ 5376 since some was filled yesterday to the 5402.51 SPX low?

Watching SPY 539.50 and 540 area- 539.97 1hr 21EMA
Break and hold below 539.50 for more downside

Whole gap needs to be filled to be considered filled. Meaning SPX needs to go to 5376. 5376.1 it think to be exact.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by lane121

Consumer sentiment at 10

SPX top 5450, key level 5400, bottom 5350.
Partial gap @ 5376 since some was filled yesterday to the 5402.51 SPX low?

Watching SPY 539.50 and 540 area- 539.97 1hr 21EMA
Break and hold below 539.50 for more downside

Following this SPX levels. Adding SPY 543.1-.2 for reject, but 539.5 area looks good for bounce. ATR's as well.

Consumer confidence hasn't moved the market much the past couple times, still I am waiting until 10 for trade.

[lane121]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Whole gap needs to be filled to be considered filled. Meaning SPX needs to go to 5376. 5376.1 it think to be exact.

Ah okay, thanks! I wasn't sure since some got filled yesterday at 5309 if it would then be partial or not.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by lane121

Consumer sentiment at 10

SPX top 5450, key level 5400, bottom 5350.
Partial gap @ 5376 since some was filled yesterday to the 5402.51 SPX low?

Watching SPY 539.50 and 540 area- 539.97 1hr 21EMA
Break and hold below 539.50 for more downside

Looks good, following this too.

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Whole gap needs to be filled to be considered filled. Meaning SPX needs to go to 5376. 5376.1 it think to be exact.

Correct.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by lane121

Ah okay, thanks! I wasn't sure since some got filled yesterday at 5309 if it would then be partial or not.

No partial, gap still open.

[ajlaxmn]

hahahaha, interesting divergence. SPY overbought on 15m, SPX oversold on 5m.

[ajlaxmn]

same thing they have done the past consumer sentiments, chop real close to an ATR, then move after consumer.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

hahahaha, interesting divergence. SPY overbought on 15m, SPX oversold on 5m.

QQQ was holding SPY up SPX flow bearish.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

QQQ was holding SPY up SPX flow bearish.

SPX flow bearish✅- and down we go

[Blazed]

waiting on 5402 - 5400

While we wait - entered TDOC. Only trade I've taken so far as I didn't take the data play even though I saw the setup.




Went with $15 calls further out as I want to see a test of 8ema (red line) then a push up to the mean (orange line).

Calls were cheap so no stops. Will let it play out.





5400 coming up.

[Josh611]

The $15s on TDOC are solid too. I went with 7/12 $10.50s.

Might add some of the $15s as well.

[lane121]

Originally Posted by Josh611

The $15s on TDOC are solid too. I went with 7/12 $10.50s.

Might add some of the $15s as well.

Might grab a couple contracts of this as well. Thanks for the heads up!

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

waiting on 5402 - 5400

5400 coming up.

Thought for sure I missed the play when they bounced it early (yellow box). They gave a gift by coming back and hitting the ATR (grey line) giving me an entry.

Trimmed @ 5414 for a 10 point move, will trim again @ the 5422 ATR > then full exit @ 5430 or stop out @ break below 5408

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Thought for sure I missed the play when they bounced it early (yellow box). They gave a gift by coming back and hitting the ATR (grey line) giving me an entry.

Trimmed @ 5414 for a 10 point move, will trim again @ the 5422 ATR > then full exit @ 5430 or stop out @ break below 5408

I took the early entry bounce, trimmed at 5416, left 3 runners all the way until ATR test again, thought about reloading 3 more contracts, didn't, out at 5418 again. $288 gain on the day.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Thought for sure I missed the play when they bounced it early (yellow box). They gave a gift by coming back and hitting the ATR (grey line) giving me an entry.

Trimmed @ 5414 for a 10 point move, will trim again @ the 5422 ATR > then full exit @ 5430 or stop out @ break below 5408

will trim again @ the 5422 ATR✅- Trimmed again. Full exit 5430 or break below 5411

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

The $15s on TDOC are solid too. I went with 7/12 $10.50s.

Might add some of the $15s as well.

The 10.5's should do good as well since the 5ema @ 12.50 is the next level.

I only went further out to give me extra time since I don't follow the stock and wasn't sure how it moves or how the options move.

I usually don't get OTM contracts either, but they were cheap and $15 is doable. Should test $20 at some point, before Oct would be nice.

For $400 it's worth a shot.

-----------------------

I just checked, the options are moving nice so far.

I see the bid is .30 and ask is .36

Should be a nice trade.

[ajlaxmn]

6/13/24 – Consumer sentiment at 10, once again SPX hovered close to ATR prior to consumer sentiment, then shortly after consumer sentmient dropped, SPX moved down. Watched entry for 5403 ATR for bounce. Entered at 5404, short of 5403 ATR. Sold 3 contracts at 5418, held 3 runners. SPX moved backed down to 5403, considered adding to position, but didn’t, held 3 runners. Held 3 runners until 5418 again, SPX was chopping around 5422 ATR and 5403 ATR, so sold remaining 3 runners. $288 gain on the day.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

will trim again @ the 5422 ATR✅- Trimmed again. Full exit 5430 or break below 5411

Calling it a day here. Weekend starts now. Next week Wednesday is a holiday.

Recap:

Full exit break below 5411✅- stopped. Great trade.

Gains from this trade $6.8k. Filled @ $1,320 > trimmed @ $2,110 > trimmed again @ $2,400 > exited runners @ $1,540/$1,480

If they stopped me out to run it up to 5430, that would be funny.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I took the early entry bounce, trimmed at 5416, left 3 runners all the way until ATR test again, thought about reloading 3 more contracts, didn't, out at 5418 again. $288 gain on the day.

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

6/13/24 – Consumer sentiment at 10, once again SPX hovered close to ATR prior to consumer sentiment, then shortly after consumer sentmient dropped, SPX moved down. Watched entry for 5403 ATR for bounce. Entered at 5404, short of 5403 ATR. Sold 3 contracts at 5418, held 3 runners. SPX moved backed down to 5403, considered adding to position, but didn’t, held 3 runners. Held 3 runners until 5418 again, SPX was chopping around 5422 ATR and 5403 ATR, so sold remaining 3 runners. $288 gain on the day.

That was a good trade even with the early entry.

$288 seems low as the contracts moved nice unless they were OTM.

Which contracts?

[lane121]

Originally Posted by lane121

Consumer sentiment at 10

SPX top 5450, key level 5400, bottom 5350.

Watching SPY 539.50 and 540 area- 539.97 1hr 21EMA
Break and hold below 539.50 for more downside

What/when I traded: 2 SPY 541P contracts (not 0dte, never again lol) @ 8:55:14 before consumer sentiment release.

Reason for entering trade:

SPX continued to close below the 5422 ATR on the 1 minute time frame after the opening candle had crashed below the ATR (never breaking past it again in the morning, but it had touched the ATR a couple of times before the consumer sentiment release and it appeared to show resistance touching it again. Although- the first 2 SPY 15 minute candles had closed above the 541 ATR, which made me a little hesitant to take the trade because there was not confluence).

Exit plan (I like to establish where I would cut first if the trade goes against me, rather than where I plan to exit if the trade is a favorable one):

Cut if SPX breaks above the day high 5424.08. If not, trim at the 5403 SPX ATR and hold a contract for 5400.

Where I sold:

I ended up trimming one contract at the 5403 SPX ATR on the initial drop (SPY 1hr 21EMA bounce @ 539.97). Then, I stuck to my exit plan (should have adjusted my stop on two contracts total). This time I did not watch my P&L. I sold when the new high for the day was broken above 5424.08 in the afternoon. Total profit for the day $6.

Looking back and looking forward, wow lol, I see just how illogical it was for me to hold a runner for a 3 point move and not moving my stop from the day high at the time. At that point, even if I'm up on the one contract, I was risking way more than I stood to gain on the 2nd contract by not moving my stop from the day high. I would either be selling for a 21 pt move in the opposite direction or hold for the 3pt move. I don't know what I was thinking.

Better day without emotionally trading, but extremely poor risk management for me today.

[lane121]

SPX top 5500, key level 5450, bottom 5400

Gap @ 5376

Watching SPY 541.20 area for a bounce or 543.20 area for a reject

[lane121]

Probably won't trade today, wasn't a great range premarket and there seems to be a lot of chop, so will just keep alerts on for whole psych #'s