Patrick Mahomes Prices

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Well. I wish I didn't feel this might happen. Huge ugh.

Lots of thoughts from everyone regarding prices. I'll give my two cents - if you bought anything in the last two weeks under 5k, sorry. It'll take a while to recoup your money. Anyone who thinks his cards are not going to go down - especially for the mass produced stuff - is crazy. This game could not have gone worse. It would have been better for him to break his leg in the 2nd quarter, and I'm not kidding.

He needed this game to legitimize his astronomical prices and to keep them going up. There will be a great opportunity to buy in the next 4 months. All that stuff you see that goes up and down like Optic PSA 10s, Prizm PSA 9s and 10s, low end PSA 10s - all of that stuff is going to drop. This is, of course, when you buy if you're a believer.

He didn't play bad. All I'm seeing everyone is everyone acknowledging he had not time to throw, and the facts (most QB pressures in SB history) show that. That's the only silver lining. The whole team was absolute garbage. Absurdly awful.

He needs to win another SB fast. In the next 2 years.

Brady has lost 3. Lebron has lost more. It happens. He'll be fine, but this absolutely puts the brakes on his hobby momentum.

He is not Russell Wilson. He is not Jimmy G. He's going to win more. Hopefully soon.

Man, that sucked.

Great points in here. It was a tough loss last night, but every team would have lost against that Tampa D. I've been warning the KC fans of that since the Packers' week 6 loss, and seeing that defense live for an entire game, they were going to be a problem. They jump off of the screen. I think a lot of Chiefs fans (and rightfully so) thought Hill's speed and Kelce's great ability of finding the soft areas in a zone would nullify any defense. Lesson learned - anyone can be figured out. I agree he needs to win one within 2 years for the current price trajectory to hold, but the near future is still bright for Mahomes. That front office needs to focus solely on the next 3 years because windows close fast in the NFL.

Originally Posted by johnashleyjacob

I am proud of him also! I know exactly how you feel! That bandwagon crowd was often the loudest of all of us. Jumping on other peoples threads talking crap about the other QBs. I even had to tell my son on Saturday night to just stop talking nonsense LOL I was listening to him bash the Bucs and how Mahomes is the best. I told him “son, you have made the cardinal sin in Football. Never doubt Brady...”

I also had to mention that our O-Line was going to be in trouble against JPP and the rest on that Bucs D Line. It was hard to watch, and then you go on the Brady thread and there were a lot of regulars from here talking Brady prices. This is not a hobby anymore. no loyalty to sports teams. People just seeing money. I can tell you this, I own a few Brady RC and I am not happy one bit that he won tonight. I was hoping it wouldn’t hurt as much as it did last night, nope I was wrong. Imagine poor Shannon Sharpe today going into face Skip Bayless.....


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This is why you have people trolling in here. Go back to J. Allen, Rodgers, RW3 threads. Mahomies always felt the need to jump in there to knock others down in order to build up their investments. It's that simple really.

As a Chiefs fan, though, I know you still have to be proud. 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 SB appearances, 1 SB win in three years is a hell of a feat. They're still the class of the AFC.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Always weird to me when fans of other teams and players come in these threads to lecture us.

Really? Go check the NFC Championship thread where tjforce (and I actually like the guy) posted like 10 memes and gif's after the Packers loss mocking and trolling.

All year, RW3 and Rodgers fans had to hear it from you guys. And now that Mahomes put up a stinker, no one can say sh!t? Please. In the MVP thread all the Mahomies wanted to talk about was Rodgers' bad game against TB, but now that Mahomes had one too, it's off limits?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by ejs23

Sorry, but a few good seasons is skewing Mahomes upwards. Check back in 5 or 6 years.... will he have that kind of consistency? Unlikely.

There's no evidence to say we wont.

Brady ran the same way in that he came out the gates SCORCHING HOT, then "cooled" off for a decade.

Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Also sure.

Take any other QB and ask the same questions. Is it possible for any other QB to catch walk the Brady path? No, it's not.

[LionsStan]

Horrible game. Lol @ comparing Mahomes to Favre tho

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

There's no evidence to say we wont.

Brady ran the same way in that he came out the gates SCORCHING HOT, then "cooled" off for a decade.

Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Also sure.

Take any other QB and ask the same questions. Is it possible for any other QB to catch walk the Brady path? No, it's not.

Dude, no one is catching Brady. EVER.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Career outlook.

Brady's level is revered at this point. It's the level of attainment all QBs should strive for. It's almost an impossible task for a QB to hit the Brady level. Mahomes is the only QB in the league who has a shot at it.

34 playoff wins for Brady. That's 1.7 a season.
6 for Mahomes. That's 1.5 a season.

83 playoff TDs for Brady. That's 4.15 a season.
17 for Mahomes. That's 4.25 a season.

12,449 playoff passing yards for Brady. That's 622.45 a season.
2,324 for Mahomes. That's 581 a season.

7 Super Bowls for Brady. That's 0.35 a season.
1 Super Bowl for Mahomes. That's 0.25 a season.

Essentially for records that Brady has set, Mahomes is on pace to be neck and neck with Brady assuming health. I'm not saying he ever reaches Brady (his cards aren't the price of Brady either, mind you), but he definitely has laid the foundation to reach the Brady tier which no other QB has come close to. Even if he fails to pass Brady and ends up as GOAT Jr. (Lebron to MJ) that's still a ridiculous ceiling for his card prices. He has shown no sign that he will not reach that level either, and only signs that he will.

Too much extrapolation to say an amazing 3 year run can be compared to an amazing 20 year run.

Nor do I understand how that compares to risk.

I take the loss yesterday as a sign that he may not reach that level. The reality of playing in double digit SBs and winning a major percentage of them is daunting.

Let’s say she gets 3 SBs, which I think is reasonable but also not guaranteed in any way. Do his prices now, justify that level of career achievement? I’m not sure
they do, which for me puts him in the high risk category.

He has an incredible pace he needs to maintain now with an absolute disaster of a second SB.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Take any other QB and ask the same questions. Is it possible for any other QB to catch walk the Brady path? No, it's not.

Mahomes included.

I know the math says that he still can; but reasonably, it would take the world breaking Mahomes way, almost always for the next 15 years. Keep in mind, he's having surgery on the toe, had a dislocated knee cap and a concussion in the last three years. If you want to extrapolate his accolades, then lets do it with the injuries as well ... he'll be in pieces by age 35.

Mahomes will never be in Brady's league. That was always likely but last night cemented it. He can still be a great, but not a GOAT.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Too much extrapolation to say an amazing 3 year run can be compared to an amazing 20 year run.

Nor do I understand how that compares to risk.

I take the loss yesterday as a sign that he may not reach that level. The reality of playing in double digit SBs and winning a major percentage of them is daunting.

Let’s say she gets 3 SBs, which I think is reasonable but also not guaranteed in any way. Do his prices now, justify that level of career achievement? I’m not sure
they do, which for me puts him in the high risk category.

He has an incredible pace he needs to maintain now with an absolute disaster of a second SB.

I get that. I'm also not saying the risk isn't there. Just stating that comparatively the risk is minimal to the other players in the league.

Brady started his career as hot as Mahomes too then went on a "drought" for a decade. What if Mahomes never has the decade long drought? Now he's outpacing Brady and just needs to hold up health wise.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by Derekbauer

Not sure it’s being said enough but the play calling was not good. Two high safeties all game.

They ran 69 plays. Only 12 of them were actually called runs when you take out sacks and Mahomes rushes.

At some point you have to take what they’re giving you. Especially when your QB is running for his life

Run game wasn't working either though

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I know the math says that he still can

Everything else is speculation, and nobody is wrong.

Bottom line, the math says he can. Until the math says he can't, Mahomes is the safest bet by a mile.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

There's no evidence to say we wont.

Brady ran the same way in that he came out the gates SCORCHING HOT, then "cooled" off for a decade.

Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Also sure.

Take any other QB and ask the same questions. Is it possible for any other QB to catch walk the Brady path? No, it's not.

Yeah, I was just thinking about that. He “only” went to the Super Bowl twice from 2005-2013. Thanks to Eli he had zero wins.

Mahomes will have to win his rings in the next 10 years to catch Brady.

This really could be it. We really dont know. Theres so many moving pieces to this puzzle.

[I pull scrubs]

Originally Posted by SaintsFan4Life

KC played a very bad game all around. They made no adjustments during the game.
Mahomes still threw passes not many QB’s could have. Even though many of his passes weren’t turning to catches. They were pretty darn close to his teammates who had a chance of making the catch. Flippers might panic and some people who need cash out on their investments quickly will drive down prices on most of his cards. I don’t think his super rare cards will take a big hit. His cards already had multiple SB’s priced in them.
Time for his market to correct itself some.

Short and to the point! Andy Reid made ZERO adjustments to help Mahomes in the game - no TE(someone not named Kelce of course) or RB to stay and help with the pass blocking - the same 5 o-line guys over 90% of the time doing the pass protection - they saw what was happening and made no changes - just terrible! I agree prices of rarer cards still stay the same, but regular multiple copies of Prizm/Optic etc. will go down 20-25%- they went down in the offseason after he won his Super Bowl.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Everything else is speculation, and nobody is wrong.

Bottom line, the math says he can. Until the math says he can't, Mahomes is the safest bet by a mile.

Yes, it's part of what drives the hobby. Value stays w/ players because the potential to be a GOAT is still there. It's what is driving all the baseball prospects; the basketball guys like Luka / Trae / Ja etc. Once that luster falls off, the value will too.

This is a step back for Mahomes but he still has time.

[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

Run game wasn't working either though

The Bucs implemented the Bills regular season strategy vs the Chiefs - make them a run team. The Chiefs didn't adjust in the first half and got to far behind in the second to run. Might have been a more exciting game if the Patriots didn't score the TD to end the first half.

Got to give credit to the Bucs D. Incredible performance.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Yes, it's part of what drives the hobby. Value stays w/ players because the potential to be a GOAT is still there. It's what is driving all the baseball prospects; the basketball guys like Luka / Trae / Ja etc. Once that luster falls off, the value will too.

This is a step back for Mahomes but he still has time.

I wouldn't even say it's a step back. Had he won, he's now outpacing Brady. Instead he's just keeping the pace.

It's going to be years until we can write Mahomes off as not achieving GOAT status.

We have a lot of unknown variables and that's the risk obviously, but every player/team/situation has unknown variables so they all assume that same risk.

With the variables we know, we can hedge some of that risk.

Again, Brady went a decade between SB wins. We used to say he wouldn't catch Joe during the drought and then wrote him off after his nasty knee injury. We were wrong.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I get that. I'm also not saying the risk isn't there. Just stating that comparatively the risk is minimal to the other players in the league.

Brady started his career as hot as Mahomes too then went on a "drought" for a decade. What if Mahomes never has the decade long drought? Now he's outpacing Brady and just needs to hold up health wise.

It will be very interesting to watch.

I feel like Mahomes is the test case for super insane speculation out of the gate in the “new market”. If he sustains long term, I think it will go along way to seeing more normalcy with price justification. If he doesn’t, it could really push big money back to predominately established players.

[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

It will be very interesting to watch.

I feel like Mahomes is the test case for super insane speculation out of the gate in the “new market”. If he sustains long term, I think it will go along way to seeing more normalcy with price justification. If he doesn’t, it could really push big money back to predominately established players.

What would be considered established players????...becuase Patrick is pretty darn established already.

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

Run game wasn't working either though

This is false as it gets. They only had SIX called runs in the first half. Four of those went for 5+ yards.

First drive second half they had 26 and 10 yards run from Clyde. Then they went full air raid. Inexcusable

[BeastMode27]

The only way I could see someone catching Brady would be to win 1 or 2 on their rookie contract. Do not resign. Sign a two year contract with a stacked team only needing a QB like Brady just did. Win 1 there, move to the next stacked team with a 2 year contract. Repeat. It would look incredibly disloyal, but you would be hard pressed to dominate your conference with the same team for 20 years like Brady just did.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

It will be very interesting to watch.

I feel like Mahomes is the test case for super insane speculation out of the gate in the “new market”. If he sustains long term, I think it will go along way to seeing more normalcy with price justification. If he doesn’t, it could really push big money back to predominately established players.

I'd argue that out of all players Mahomes has the least amount of speculation baked into his prices.

LamJack jumped off a cliff, and the ball kept rolling.

I think we're also making the assumption that Mahomes has to best Brady to maintain his card prices and I don't think that's needed. Mahomes can be the certified #2 to Brady and I'd still think his card prices would move upward.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mc1

Yeah, I was just thinking about that. He “only” went to the Super Bowl twice from 2005-2013. Thanks to Eli he had zero wins.

Mahomes will have to win his rings in the next 10 years to catch Brady.

This really could be it. We really dont know. Theres so many moving pieces to this puzzle.

Mahomes doesn’t need to catch Brady in rings to sustain these prices. Brady is such an absurd outlier that it helps literally ever other elite QB to ever play the game. To even be in the ballpark of Brady is good enough.

If Mahomes can achieve longevity, he will have the stats to contend with the all-time greats. Those stats plus one more SB puts him in the same class as Manning, Montana, and Brady.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

[B]I wouldn't even say it's a step back. Had he won, he's now outpacing Brady. Instead he's just keeping the pace.

It's going to be years until we can write Mahomes off as not achieving GOAT status.

So for a counterpoint.

The bolded is interesting because Mahomes hasn’t outpaced Brady since he’s been in the league. Brady has been to 3 SBs, with 2 victories and 1 MVP. So you can compare early career, but he’s also not keeping pace with Brady right now.

And the second part of the post just assumes bias that Mahomes is even in the GOAT status conversation now, he simply isn’t. That would be absurd.

There are two QBs in that conversation and an incredible amount of HOF QBs between those two that aren’t in the conversation. Right now Mahomes isn’t in the conversation.

[MyckKabongo]

PCPtrade and Geechquest are making great points as usual.

QBs are aging very well these days. Most likely, Mahomes has another 15-20 years of high level play. Sure, his career could go off the rails but do you really want to bet against him? Somebody is going to be this generation's Legend.

[Spartyon]

For those calling for a Mahomes collapse because you can’t wait to buy some finally.. do not wait for this thing to tank. Look at prices in mid-December. That’s where I expect the floor to be for this off-season


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[HeadstrongRSS]

Looked a bit different playing with squads like Watson, Trubisky, Dimes. Etc have to deal with. Mahomes is top 5...but he's not head and shoulders above the pack.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by ALBASKETBALL

What would be considered established players????...becuase Patrick is pretty darn established already.

I can’t call a year 3 starter an established player.

For established it’s either retired players or Lebron/Brady.

Mahomes prices are indicative that he will continue to play at a high level for a long time with multiple more SB wins. That isn’t established to me.