✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Wanted to offer my quick observations on the Ohtani market. From spring training to now, I've sold 350+ slabs and probably another 100+ raw Ohtani RCs. Many were base rookies, but some were in the mid thousands. Here's my takeaways:

1. There are a lot of low feedback / new to hobby and new to eBay buyers hitting the BIN at prices that are not the lowest. This is causing others to raise prices and resulting in quick inflation of pricing. Sellers who are willing to use/pay the sponsored ad functions are raking, as the casual collector will only enter simple phrases like "Ohtani rookie" and the sponsored ad acts as a catch-all.

2. Most of the buyers for graded base rookies are either new or crossovers from basketball/hockey. They know the allure of a PSA 10 rookie, but they are very confused with the amount of selection. There is a blind demand being dispersed to all Ohtani rookie cards and the lower end sets are getting a price bump more than they deserve (A&G, Heritage High, etc).

3. The batting rookie is the first preference for the casual collector. They will pay more for the card, but the casual collector also has a budget range that is easy to identify. It is usually sub 900 range, as 4 figures becomes too serious for many collectors. Once you get past the thousand mark, pitching tends to take over again as the collector group is usually more to experienced and values traditional set pedigree. There are always exceptions, though.

4. There are a TON of people holding Ohtani, gritting their teeth at the fact that PSA is closed. Many of these people are not Ohtani collectors. They may have just opened a ton of TU/TCU and have stacks of base singles. This suppressed (or halted) supply is allowing the graded cards to achieve current prices. This does not apply for Bowman or high-end autos, as it's clearly worth the $300 fee if you believe the card is a 10.

5. Continuing from above, when PSA opens backs up, there are going to be a disproportionally heavy amount of Ohtanis sent in. By the time they come back 6 months down the line, the supply will probably meet or exceed the demand. Ohtani is an amazing story, but there's one hot summer blockbuster a year and they rarely repeat.

6. Low pop rookies are being dubbed as SPs or SSPs even though they're really not. An example is the Ohtani new era RC (pop ~20) that had at least a few thousand printed. Another is the retail chrome Ohtani variation. These cards aren't that rare and you can bet people are sifting through their boxes to grab them to put in CS1s.

7. High end Ohtani cards are extremely lumpy. Some are getting too much love and some are still flying under the radar, despite slightly higher prices. It only takes one bidding war to elevate the price of a card, but there are still deals to be had if you wish to own high end or consolidate up.

My final thoughts: I collect Ohtani as hard as anyone in this forum, but this has been a perfect storm for his low-end cards. I will not debate whether batting or pitching will win long term, but historically speaking, overall player market value tends to consolidate upward over extended periods of time. Many Ohtani base card 10s have cruised past Soto/Acuna, and while I do earnestly believe Ohtani is the superior athlete, he carries more health risk due to his double duties. Don't invest in something you can't afford to lose, but collect what you like. Ohtani is awesome.

So your opinion is that low end base cards psa10 are over priced. How do you feel about low end base cards raw...still mostly over priced due to being lifted up by psa10's? It seems like 2018 series 2 and update are way cheaper than Acuna and Soto.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So your opinion is that low end base cards psa10 are over priced. How do you feel about low end base cards raw...still mostly over priced due to being lifted up by psa10's? It seems like 2018 series 2 and update are way cheaper than Acuna and Soto.

I don't think you can do much wrong paying $10-15 per card, but S2 was in the 2018 complete sets (S1/S2) in addition to regular release so there were many more printed than the update US300/US250/US1 - MANY more. Therefore, I think there are some headwinds for the #700 base appreciation path, longer term.

Every few days ESPN OR Yahoo! writes an article about Ohtani's greatness, it creates a new pocket of unsuspecting collectors to feed and sustain the current market - but writers eventually move on. As an Ohtani collector that has been there from day one, I think this is truly a quality over quantity period where collectors should focus on known rare cards or serial # parallels and stick to historically high pedigree sets (flagship, Bowman, etc) if concerned about value. That said, not everyone is concerned with value

[HarryLime]

I think the hitting cards got a bit blown out of proportion. We've got close to a decade in this current format's provenance to know which brands and their issues are sought-after most, as well as where all the parallels fit among the hierarchy.

I think what happened was a small contingency of collectors enjoyed the niche of discovering Ohtani RCs that depicted him hitting, since there are so few, and a lot of people took that as though the cards were being pumped up and should now be considered some sort of hobby staple, causing them to push back on the pro-hitting contingency.

I don't think Ohtani's hierarchy has changed from pre- to post-hitting cards. I don't expect GL Class 1 cards to become valuable nor do I think his RD cards will increase much past the nice premium they've received from the small group of collectors seeking them out. Under no circumstances would I advise anyone to "invest" in these niche cards.

I think it's just difficult sometimes when we're all piled into a single thread separating who is talking about where the money is currently going, where the money is probably going to go in the future, and who is just looking to have fun with no thought to money involved at all. Someone can make a statement and three people can read three entirely different meanings based on how they're looking at the hobby at that moment.

Maybe we should color code the text for people who are just talking about stuff that is not meant to be taken as financial advice?

Arthur

[BBases31]

After having bought Ohtani for a year+ before this season, I haven't bought a single card of his this season. I lost out on some higher end stuff early in the month, but have decided to stop chasing at these prices due to 1. The likelihood that he won't get enough pitching innings to give him an MVP shot and 2. Not Ohtani related but a coming big overall market drop in the offseason due the lockout potential.

Piggybacking on what Trueblue said, if you are price sensitive to your collection, I think it's a great time to sell low to mid end and especially anything non-traditional that's being pushed up by the influx of basketball/casual collectors which would be stuff like Rookie Debuts or Wave parallels. But, if you don't care about the price swings, I think you can't go wrong holding or buying if your time horizon is long enough. I fall into that category and haven't sold any of my Ohtani collection

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by waxxius

Nice! You have the good looking one, mine's been beaten with an ugly stick. Haha

[tblood]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Nice! You have the good looking one, mine's been beaten with an ugly stick. Haha

I’ll take it off your hands if its hideousness is wearing on you!


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[BBases31]

$3600 for a 9.5 Update Black with 9 corners is pretty strong.

But what a weird result for the BGS 10 Update Refractor. Finished at $750 There were 3 PSA 10 sales in the last month and a half between $1150 and $1400. Are BGS 10s really worth so much less now?

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by BBases31

$3600 for a 9.5 Update Black with 9 corners is pretty strong.

But what a weird result for the BGS 10 Update Refractor. Finished at $750 There were 3 PSA 10 sales in the last month and a half between $1150 and $1400. Are BGS 10s really worth so much less now?

Frankly, yes. People don't really care about BGS 10s vs BGS 9.5s these days. BGS prices (besides black label) are going to keep taking a pounding, because whatever might be said about the PSA delays, BGS has done dramatically worse and is killing (has killed?) their brand.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Frankly, yes. People don't really care about BGS 10s vs BGS 9.5s these days. BGS prices (besides black label) are going to keep taking a pounding, because whatever might be said about the PSA delays, BGS has done dramatically worse and is killing (has killed?) their brand.

I also think a lot of the True Gem or higher BGS stuff got bought with the intention of crossing it over to PSA and with the realization now that that process probably means you won't get your card back for a year, those people have decided to just pay a premium for one that's already in a PSA slab.

If you're long-term, probably a good time to be buying some low-priced BGS True Gem and TG+ cards.

Arthur

[omega145]

My small Ohtani collection so far

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[al3xmac10]

The Ringer on Shohei.
Love Ben Lindbergh!

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2021/6...tani-war-stats

[imbluestreak23]

Ohtani is great.

Glad I bought some this spring.

[Rage]

Let's get a pinch hit HR into McCovey Cove tonight!

Shohei would be a legend in SF with a splash hit, already gets lots of love there

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by Rage

Let's get a pinch hit HR into McCovey Cove tonight!

Shohei would be a legend in SF with a splash hit, already gets lots of love there

How far is it for a HR into McCovey Cove?

[zbaseball21]

It was probably good for Shohei to get a couple games off. Will be good to see him back in there hitting on Thursday.

[waxxius]

Attachment 507976
Attachment 507977
Attachment 507978

The 6 was damaged by PSA. They refunded me my declared value and grading cost of that card.

[al3xmac10]

[SGC300ier]

Anyone?

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[RW3FAN]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

How far is it for a HR into McCovey Cove?

Google is your friend.........

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-physics-of-splash-hits/

[NYRE2PECT]

Because teasing is fun - grades popped today, but not sharing scores yet.

Description

2018 Panini National Treasures 48 Shohei Ohtani Material Sig
2018 Panini Immaculate 37 Shohei Ohtani Autograph Patch
2018 Topps Clearly Authentic So Shohei Ohtani Autograph

These three are the last of my $75 express subs from purchases at the beginning of the year. Could not touch them now.

A mixed bag of grades, but three more coming off of the registry. I am now up to 54/63 of Shohei's rookie cards that are graded. I have three more to sub, but I am not paying $300 apiece for them, so technically I have 57/63.

I need 2,4,5,6,7 /10 Dynasty cards and 1 Transcendent Icon and I am done!

Reality is it may never be a completed set.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

pcp's 190k sale topped the 184k sale of the 2018 Bowman Chrome (pitching) Superfractor Auto BGS 9.5 last August 2018!

ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE!

https://www.beckett.com/news/2018-bo...h-tops-184000/

I sold the Topps Transcended Autograph Superfractor today for 300K net (private sale). This sale sets a new record, beating the 190K sale of TC Pitching Superfractor last week, which was also my card. High end market is still strong! I am glad I held on to all of my Ohtani cards until this season began.

Ohtani Superfractors by icollector23, on Flickr

I have been selling some of my Ohtani duplicates since last month but I will be holding on to the cards below for long term.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/144335...57675417455977

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I sold the Topps Transcended Autograph Superfractor today for 300K net (private sale). This sale sets a new record, beating the 190K sale of TC Pitching Superfractor last week, which was also my card. High end market is still strong! I am glad I held on to all of my Ohtani cards until this season began.

I thought whaling was illegal?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I sold the Topps Transcended Autograph Superfractor today for 300K net (private sale). This sale sets a new record, beating the 190K sale of TC Pitching Superfractor last week, which was also my card. High end market is still strong! I am glad I held on to all of my Ohtani cards until this season began.


I have been selling some of my Ohtani duplicates since last month but I will be holding on to the cards below for long term.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/144335...57675417455977

Dammmmm, congrats man!

[NYRE2PECT]

Wow - congrats on sale. A stunning amount of money.

[3rdpedal]

Amazing collection pcptrade. And congrats on the 2 big sales!