HOF Pace Tracker - Page 84

pinnacle06 · 07-30-2025, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mfw13

Alonso and Bichette came up the same year as Tatis Jr. and Vlad Jr.

Acuna and Soto came up the same year as Ohtani.

I don’t understand what your point is. I am not saying those guys are in or out. Everyone was comparing Tatis, Soto, vlad and Acuna to each other in 2020. Think there is even a buried thread on the topic here. I should have just specified their names from the git go… my bad.

redauto5 · 07-30-2025, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pinnacle06

I don’t understand what your point is. I am not saying those guys are in or out. Everyone was comparing Tatis, Soto, vlad and Acuna to each other in 2020. Think there is even a buried thread on the topic here. I should have just specified their names from the git go… my bad.

Yeah, the big 4 of Soto, Acuna, Vlad and Tatis were the primary hype machine during the COVID boom. They were all on fire that year, young studs with unlimited potential and their high end RC prices went crazy. It turns only.Soto has held up fairly well though I think hes still down from the all time COVID highs but much less than the other 3.

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tyrith · 07-30-2025, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redauto5

Yeah, the big 4 of Soto, Acuna, Vlad and Tatis were the primary hype machine during the COVID boom. They were all on fire that year, young studs with unlimited potential and their high end RC prices went crazy. It turns only.Soto has held up fairly well though I think hes still down from the all time COVID highs but much less than the other 3.

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I paid $1900 for a PSA 10 VGJ Sapphire RC once upon a time. Fortunately, I sold it while it was still a 4 digit card.

On Soto - I used Bowman 1st CPA Gold /50 to keep the transaction quantity down and make this quick. At the peak, there were two sales in March/April 2021 for about $80K each. There were two sales last month right around $17.5K. All BGS 9.5 grade. The /499 refractors are down more like 50% - I remember buying one in May 2021 for something like $5500 and they're going for 2500-3000 now.

Gold /50 for VGJ was about $24K in 2021 and is $5-6K now. Acuna $35K -> $12K. Tatis maybe 35-45K (fewer sales) down to about $7500 now, with multiple PSA 10 sales in the 80-100K range in late 2021/early 2022.

tyrith · 07-31-2025, 12:33 PM

2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

AGE 27

Clase, Emmanuel 8.9 + 1.3 = 10.2

Whelp, this is probably the last time this guy is showing up here. He was actually as on track as a closer can be, but you can't get in the HOF if you have to pitch half your career outside the US to avoid being indicted.

Kirby, George 11.3 + 0.9 = 12.2

Who knows with pitchers, but he's gonna have to pitch until he's 40 to have any sort of a shot.

Chisholm, Jazz 10.1 + 2.7 = 12.8

I'm probably going to drop Jazz in the offseason, although he might technically be slightly over the old WAR cutoff for age 27. The minimum curve goes up 4.0 from 27 to 28; he might actually still be over the cutoff for age 28 if he repeats this season. He'd just need to have 4 win seasons every year for the next 13 years to have a shot.

Rutschman, Adley 13 + 1 = 14

Oh, Adley. I bought heavily on Adley right before he hurt himself last year, and it's just been a mess ever since. I agree with the opinions out there that it'd probably be a good thing for him to get traded - Baltimore hosed him incredibly hard with service time manipulation, and the 3-5 WAR he potentially lost by spending an extra year in the minors could really cost him, particularly after this blip.

Honestly, it's probably over for Adley's Hall case with how low on the accumulation curve he is now...but I also still believe he has the possibility of rattling off an 18 win three year stretch here the next few years. But if 2026 isn't a star year, the race is gonna be run.

Kwan, Steven 11.9 + 2.7 = 14.6

There are just no signs that Kwan will have the peak years he needs to get into the Hall conversation. I actually am struggling to come up with a good career comp - all the 35-45 win LF types are either way better or way worse on defense than Kwan has been. That's where I expect him to land in a 90th percentile scenario, though.

Contreras, William 13.3 + 1.9 = 15.2

His barrel rate (a Fangraphs stat of batted balls with exit velocity and launch angle that lead to at least .500 BA and 1.500 SLG historically) is down over half since last year. So his slugging percentage is down 120 points and his xSLG is down almost as much. His power vanished.

If he can get it back, he has a shot; the last two years were really nice. That said, to this point he's been more peak Brian McCann than anything like the catchers that actually make the HOF. With how their career accumulation winds up, a catcher pretty much has to have a top 3 MVP peak to make it. The fact that I think Rutschman can do that is the reason why I'm still in on him. It doesn't feel impossible for Contreras either.

Bichette, Bo 16 + 2 = 18

Well, at least he's rebounded from last year. Bo pretty clearly is what he is at this point; after five full and two partial seasons in the majors, there's just no reason to anticipate major skill development.

Acuna Jr, Ronald 28.4 + 2.7 = 31.1

There's clearly a world where Acuna winds up a 1st ballot guy. There's also a world where he isn't healthy in his 30s and just peters out; a modern Dave Parker, you might say. The inbetween is the most interesting to think about. Or, to put it differently - how long does he need to stay healthy and productive to get to the Hall on the BBWAA ballot?

He's still only had one truly elite year - his MVP season in 2023. Otherwise, he had one 5 win season in 2019 and has had a bunch of 3-4 win seasons when healthy. His WAR total is mostly a function of having become a high quality regular at age 20 - it's easy to picture Jackson Chourio's career looking like this at age 27 if he has a superstar year somewhere in there. Now, 9 plus 6x5 = 39, which is a good enough WAR7 number even if it's not anything crazy.

Acuna has serious star power - maybe not Vlad Guerrero Sr level, but he's the best comp I can see right now. But Vlad Sr didn't have the injury issues and still got to 2500 hits and 450 HRs. There aren't a lot of examples of guys that didn't get to that kind of key stat totals and didn't get to 60+ WAR - the HOF examples of those guys are all vet committee admissions. Acuna only has 179 HR and 875 hits as of now...400/2,000 feels impossibly high; he'd have to stay healthy until he's 38 or so. And he's hurt again as I write this.

So with all that - I think his best bet is to make it by beating that WAR7 number and just having such an elite peak they can't keep him out. Even if he winds up with modest career totals, a 2nd MVP award (or at least a top 2 or 3 finish) and three peak seasons of 7+ WAR would give him a better peak than a lot of guys. It probably winds up look like Todd Helton's career but with better name value and more injuries.

redauto5 · 07-31-2025, 07:11 PM

Thanks for taking this over and doing yoeman's work here man. It's crazy to me that the only fully projectable HOFer under 30 is Soto. Witt is looking good but started a little late, Acuna and Tatis can't stay consistent with performance and injuries. Gunnar is drifting back into good from great. Vladdy's aging curve doesn't look great. Devers, same. Again, I come back to Kyle Tucker. Its a stretch as he started producing older than is preferable and hasn't had a blow out 8 or 9 WAR season. So its Soto, probably Witt, maybe Tucker, and I'm sure 3 or 4 other guys that just take it to another level unexpectedly as well as a guy or 2 mentioned above that can be elite until their late 30's.

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tyrith · 07-31-2025, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redauto5

Thanks for taking this over and doing yoeman's work here man. It's crazy to me that the only fully projectable HOFer under 30 is Soto. Witt is looking good but started a little late, Acuna and Tatis can't stay consistent with performance and injuries. Gunnar is drifting back into good from great. Vladdy's aging curve doesn't look great. Devers, same. Again, I come back to Kyle Tucker. Its a stretch as he started producing older than is preferable and hasn't had a blow out 8 or 9 WAR season. So its Soto, probably Witt, maybe Tucker, and I'm sure 3 or 4 other guys that just take it to another level unexpectedly as well as a guy or 2 mentioned above that can be elite until their late 30's.

Tucker is in the next group - but for now, I'll say that his injuries the last year have seriously hurt him. He could have had an 8 win kind of peak year last year and it didn't happen.

There are going to be some of these younger guys that make it. But besides Soto and BWJ, it's pretty hard to say which ones are on track, and it's going to come down to which guys have spiky career years versus the ones that don't. It's easier to point to Gunnar and Acuna because they've already done it once, so it's easier to picture how they do it again, but it could be any number of guys.

Jeter1020 · 08-06-2025, 12:12 AM

Wanted to ask. How’s Harper, Judge and Acuna’s chances looking like?

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rwperu34 · 08-06-2025, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Wanted to ask. How’s Harper, Judge and Acuna’s chances looking like?

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Acuna is listed up there somewhere. Harper and Judge are in if they retired today.

Archangel1775 · 08-06-2025, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Wanted to ask. How’s Harper, Judge and Acuna’s chances looking like?

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Ronald Acuna - Age 27
Active ML Seasons : 8
AGE 27 Tracked Career 13.2 WAR - 21.3 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 4.1 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 5.1 WAR
MVP
5x All-Star
Rookie of the Year

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyrith

[B]2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

Acuna Jr, Ronald 28.4 + 2.7 = 31.1

There's clearly a world where Acuna winds up a 1st ballot guy. There's also a world where he isn't healthy in his 30s and just peters out; a modern Dave Parker, you might say. The inbetween is the most interesting to think about. Or, to put it differently - how long does he need to stay healthy and productive to get to the Hall on the BBWAA ballot?

He's still only had one truly elite year - his MVP season in 2023. Otherwise, he had one 5 win season in 2019 and has had a bunch of 3-4 win seasons when healthy. His WAR total is mostly a function of having become a high quality regular at age 20 - it's easy to picture Jackson Chourio's career looking like this at age 27 if he has a superstar year somewhere in there. Now, 9 plus 6x5 = 39, which is a good enough WAR7 number even if it's not anything crazy.

Acuna has serious star power - maybe not Vlad Guerrero Sr level, but he's the best comp I can see right now. But Vlad Sr didn't have the injury issues and still got to 2500 hits and 450 HRs. There aren't a lot of examples of guys that didn't get to that kind of key stat totals and didn't get to 60+ WAR - the HOF examples of those guys are all vet committee admissions. Acuna only has 179 HR and 875 hits as of now...400/2,000 feels impossibly high; he'd have to stay healthy until he's 38 or so. And he's hurt again as I write this.

So with all that - I think his best bet is to make it by beating that WAR7 number and just having such an elite peak they can't keep him out. Even if he winds up with modest career totals, a 2nd MVP award (or at least a top 2 or 3 finish) and three peak seasons of 7+ WAR would give him a better peak than a lot of guys. It probably winds up look like Todd Helton's career but with better name value and more injuries.

Bryce Harper - Age 32
Active ML Seasons: 14
AGE 32 Tracked Career 32.8 WAR - 39.5 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 3.2 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 4.0 WAR
Current WAR: 53.6
2xMVP
ROY
8X All-Star
NLCS MVP
HR Derby Champ

*Signed through Age 38 Season

Aaron Judge - Age 33
Active ML Seasons: 10
AGE 33 Tracked Career 36.3 WAR - 42.2 WAR
Floor Level Hall of Famer Year 2.7 WAR
Average Hall of Famer Year 3.4 WAR
Current WAR: 59.2
2xMVP (Likely 3rd 2025)
ROY
7x All-Star
HR Derby Champ

*Signed through Age 39 Season

Jeter1020 · 08-06-2025, 04:35 AM

Thanks for the responses guys!

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tyrith · 08-07-2025, 07:12 PM

FYI - everything before Kyle Tucker was written about a week ago, just been busy.

2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

AGE 28

Hoerner, Nico 15.2 + 2.5 = 17.7
Torres, Gleyber 15.9 + 2.4 = 18.3
Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + 0.7 = 21.2

None of these guys has a single season that would be a top 5 season for a normal HOFer. There's just nothing here.

Riley, Austin 18.5 + 2 = 20.5

Riley did have some number of those seasons, at least. At the point where he was supposed to add the elite seasons to the list, he's hit a two year regression that doesn't show any signs of turning around. Never say never, but this feels like a run race to me.

Skubal, Tarik 12.6 + 5.2 = 17.8

Modern day pitchers just doesn't get to the IP counts to support truly large single season win totals. Last year Skubal had 5.9 fWAR in 192 innings. That prorates to 6.9 fWAR if he had pitched 225 innings. Max Scherzer had a 6 year stretch where he averaged 218 IP/yr; Justin Verlander had a 4 year stretch where he averaged 238 IP/yr. Skubal is probably going to win consecutive Cy Youngs without cracking 200.

That said - if we get a BBWAA crew in 15 years that thinks about this stuff intelligently, this is what the peak of a modern SP HOFer is gonna look like. He's going to be 1st or 2nd in SP WAR (depending on which you look at it) in consecutive seasons - what more can he do?

That means it becomes a longevity game. Scherzer, Verlander, and Kershaw all had a sustained 6-8 year peak. Greinke didn't as much, but he also had a 10 WAR season as a pitcher where he threw 229 innings with an ERA+ of 205, and then followed it up by being an ace for another decade. Chris Sale might wind up being the comp - but even he had a 7 year stretch where he accumulated somewhere in the range of 35-38 WAR before his arm fell off.

As the saying goes - well begun is half done. He's at least shown he can be a superstar pitcher. Now he has to survive.

Raleigh, Cal 13.9 + 6.3 = 20.2

Raleigh is having the peak year I talked about with Rutschman and Contreras in the 27 year olds. He's been really good before this year, but just poking along at that level for 5-8 years isn't really enough to break through, when all these catchers are done by 35. Cal has added both a huge pile of stats and a bunch of name recognition to his career case this year.

He's actually having the season that people want to think 2021 Salvador Perez was - lots of power but with a pretty high walk rate, and while his defensive value is down year over year it's still pretty solid. I think this is probably going to be a good enough season that if regressed to just being the guy he was in 2024 for another 4 years or so that he could find his way to the Hall eventually, if he stays in the league long enough to get to, say, 350 HRs on top of it.

Webb, Logan 18.8 + 3.5 = 22.3

I think Logan Webb is drawing live for the HOF. If he's going to make it, he both needs to still have the best 2-3 years of his career and also pitch for another decade. He's got a career low FIP number this year, and he's on this 3rd season in a row of leading the league in IP, so both seem possible.

Having Paul Skenes is in his league is a problem in terms of actually ever winning the Cy Young, though, and getting at least one would be a huge boon. It's not a requirement - Mussina got in on the BBWAA ballot without one - but it'd sure be nice.

Alvarez, Yordan 23.2 + -0.2 = 23

I'm an Astros fan and I own plenty of nice Yordan cards, but I'm out on him as a HOFer. He's just not gonna stay healthy, and he's not going to stay healthy enough to play the field, so he's going to have the perpetual headwind of being a big bodied single position DH as he gets into his 30s. He's also losing too much of his stat accumulation to both this season he's mostly missed and the chunks of games he misses every other season.

Tucker, Kyle 20.9 + 4 = 24.9

So far, this year has landed between his performance in his abbreviated 2024 season (which was a pro-rated 8 win season) and the 5 win baseline he was at before that. Because his best season got cut off by injury, he still doesn't have a true signature season, and just getting to around 6 wins this year doesn't really change that.

Personally, I'm mostly dubious that he has a top 3 MVP finish in him, and it's going to be tough for him to get to major career milestones. His first year as a regular was the COVID year, so he didn't play 100 games in a season until he was 24 and then lost half his age 27 season, so he's only at 143 HRs (as of 8/7) and 726 hits.

The only way he has a chance without spiking a 15 win two year peak here soon is to stay at this level until he's 36 or so and getting a WAR total in the high 60s at least. Even Scott Rolen had a 9 win peak season, but that's the sort of career we'd be looking at. But Tucker also has the defensive profile of a guy that winds up as a LF/DH by his mid 30s...it's going to be tough. It feels like a lot of Tucker's high order outcomes still wind up looking like a Bobby Abreu kind of career, and Abreu is only getting 15% of the BBWAA vote.

Something to consider, also, is that when we talk about there being 39 active Hall of Famers on average historically, that includes guys that got in as the bad Vet Committee admits. There are likely going to be some guys that get selected akin to Dave Parker and Harold Baines, and I could see a world where that happens for both Bobby Abreu (who is dramatically better than those guys as a HOF candidate) and Kyle Tucker.

Devers, Rafael 25.7 + 2.2 = 27.9

Devers is in even worse shape than Tucker even though he was the WAR lead; he has a 6.5 fWAR season at age 22 and hasn't been north of 5.0 ever since. That's just not going to get it done, and there's very little sign that he'll get the value total into the territory it needs to be, especially as a 1B/DH whose position/defense adjustment is now into Ohtani/Soto territory.

His best case is to play until he's 38 at least and get to 2500 hits and at least 400 HRs. His batted ball power-type stats are still pretty good, so it's certainly possible. There just isn't really a sign that he's going to have more peak years to get to the 40 WAR7 that's needed to get to the Hall without an MVP peak.

tyrith · 08-09-2025, 06:12 PM

2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

We're now at the stage where we might have more than one year in a post.

29 Adames, Willy 21.5 + 2.1 = 23.6

There's just nothing here to build a HOF case around. He's an above average starter, but even Hall of Very Good would be a stretch of a label for someone that's never made the ASG. He needed to take one more step up this season and has instead seen his offensive numbers take a slight step back.

29 Bellinger, Cody 23.8 + 3.2 = 27

He's on year three of a career revival, and this is looking more like his 2023 season that really got him out of the dumpster. But he's still never gotten his walk rate back to where it was at his peak - it died in 2021 and has stayed dead ever since. It's really, really hard to have HOF-level peak years around a .330 OBP as an OF; the positional adjustments just eat their lunch.

30 Smith, Will 18.3 + 3.8 = 22.1

Smith has managed to revive his relevance this season. That said, it still feels more like he's on a JT Realmuto path than a true HOF path. As I've talked about with the other catchers, they really need to have a top 3 MVP kind of peak to get there with their likely stat totals, and Smith hasn't had that kind of season. Oddly for a catcher, his bWAR and fWAR totals are within about a win now.

30 Burnes, Corbin 21.5 + 0.7 = 22.2

This TJ is probably going to kill Burnes's shot. Besides his 2020 and 2021, he hasn't really had a true HOF peak yet, and now he's going to be out until his age 32 season. His age 32-38 would have to look around as good as Max Scherzer's to have a real shot - something in the 30-35 WAR range. So far he's only pitched about 1/3 as many career innings as Clayton Kershaw and 1/2 as many as Chris Sale, much less the more healthy HOF types.

30 Correa, Carlos 38 + 1.1 = 39.1

I'm again going to put aside the Astros trash can saga here. Correa really can't afford to be petering out as quickly as it seems like he's going to. Jeremy Pena isn't an FA until after 2027; Correa is likely permanently off SS as his daily role now. His career is a WAR argument - still only has 195 HR and under 1300 hits - and being a 2B or 3B is going to make adding to that much harder if he's OBP is going to run sub 350.

His chance (again, barring the Astros stuff) is still non-zero; the only players his age or younger that have more career fWAR are the next guy on this post and Juan Soto. He needs to get back to where he was in 2024 to make that happen, which is roughly a 4 win player, and get at least 4 more seasons at that level. I don't really expect that to happen, and I think his career fWAR total is more likely to wind up in the low 50s. He does have a roughly 5 win bWAR/fWAR gap, which could help in a marginal case, also this season has shrunk that gap by over a win so far.

30 Ohtani, Shohei 40.2 + 5 = 45.2

Shohei is a lock, of course. He's getting into territory where he's close to having actual HOF comps - for instance, David Ortiz and Joe Mauer only wound up around 55 bWAR each and Ohtani is at 49.

The real question is how high he goes. I'm of the mind that he's mostly cooked as a pitcher, even though his 19 innings this season have been worth around half a win as it is. But I'm more interested in looking at him as a hitter.

He's on track for about a 7 win season this year, which would give him a three year stretch right around 23. The only guys active that can do better than that are Trout (who could beat it with any combo of three full time seasons pre-COVID), 2016-2019 Mookie, and the last four years of Aaron Judge. Two more years at this level would already get him to around 50 WAR as a batter at age 32, just a tad short of where Bryce Harper is now.

If we give him a 6-5-4-3-2-1 stairstep down from there - which is lazy but along the lines of what I'd expect from a projection system - that's another 20 WAR, giving him a career total around 70 as a batter and in the low 80s total. The only active batter north of 80 is Trout, and the only two non-young guys that seem like they have a real chance to get there are Betts and Judge.

That'd be insane for a player that didn't become a star until age 26; there are essentially no historical comps for that, and the only one that really exists is comparing Judge and Ohtani to each other. Guys like Trout, Griffey, Beltre all started around 20; that's why we hype up current players like Jackson Chourio so much. There are some examples of players that started at age 23 - Chipper Jones and Jeff Bagwell, for a couple - but this is still nuts.

Copy/paste (in your heads) most of this section for Aaron Judge.

tyrith · 08-13-2025, 09:36 PM

2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

31 Hader, Josh 12.2 + 1.1 = 13.3

Hader actually has a shot if he plays until he's 38-40, which is just kind of how it goes for relievers. WAR target would be something in the 27+ range. Hader might have a serious shoulder injury now, and if so that's probably gonna derail his career in a way where he won't be on the tracker in a year.

31 Diaz, Edwin 13.3 + 1.4 = 14.7

Diaz is also probably going to need to pitch until his late 30s, but he's on the right arc. No one really cares above saves as a standalone anymore, but he's on 248 as of Aug 12. If he can finish his age 37 season in the mid 400s, that would put him in a pretty similar position to Kenley Jansen. It's all gonna be about how long his body holds up from here.

31 Swanson, Dansby 25.1 + 2.2 = 27.3
31 Olson, Matt 26.6 + 3.1 = 29.7

Both of these guys are likely drops in the next 1-2 years. The old tracker minimum WAR requirements are very soft in the 30s and aren't indicative of what it would actually take to get to the HOF without winning some major awards or being a long time playoff hero.

31 Marte, Ketel 28 + 3.3 = 31.3

Unlike Swanson and Olson, I feel like I could construct a hypothetical scenario where Marte gets there. He's on a 2nd season of a 162 game pace around 7 to 8 WAR. If he could actually play 155 games at this level for a year or two, you're actually starting to look at a pretty nice career peak, especially since he'd certainly pick up another one or two top 5 MVP finishes in the process.

This is a very narrow window; we're talking about a guy peaking out during what is typically an accumulation period for most HOF guys. He also has played 150 games once since 2018, so he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone. But I can at least build a scenario where he gets to 60 WAR that doesn't strike me as completely insane, which is pretty impressive for a guy that only had one star season after age 28.

31 Seager, Corey 37.2 + 3 = 40.2

Probably only going to play about 120 games again. He debuted a full season before Bregman and is now 70 games played behind him. He's had a massive spike in his walk rate this season, so his OBP is getting close to some of the years where he had massive BABIP spikes earlier in his career.

31 Bregman, Alex 39.5 + 2.2 = 41.7

Astros blah blah. Bregman has actually added a full win in the last three weeks, since I pulled the numbers. His batted ball stats are really strong this year, although he's also still getting a huge boost from BABIP variance as well. If he was going to play 150 games this would be the sort of 6 win season he desperately needs, but instead it's going to be another that lands in the 4-5 range. Defense is down from last year, but he's been very up or down in defensive value over his career.

31 Lindor, Francisco 54.3 + 3.3 = 57.6

Please refer to any of my other rants on Francisco Lindor. Barring the usual caveats about DV/PEDs, he's going to be in the Hall. This season isn't up to the standard of the last few for him, he's losing incremental walk rate and his barrel rate has tanked, but it's pretty similar to his 2021 season. It's really a question of if he winds up as Barry Larkin or as an Adrian Beltre type, depending on how long he stays an above average starter.

itsbaytime · 08-13-2025, 10:16 PM

Excellent work, as always!

PeteD · 08-13-2025, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corockies

Assuming Posey goes in first ballot in 2027, he'll be the first player ever in the Hall of Fame with a Topps Black RC.

Is Miggy the 1'st with a RC Auto?

Will Verlander have the 1'st Topps / Bowman Chrome Auto Superfractor?

Archangel1775 · 08-13-2025, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteD

Is Miggy the 1'st with a RC Auto?

Will Verlander have the 1'st Topps / Bowman Chrome Auto Superfractor?

Technically the Autographs are still an insert set so you can go as far back as the 1997 Bowman Roy Halladay AU and the 1997 Donruss Signature David Ortiz AU. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Joe Mauer holds that title for now until Albert Pujols is inducted.

PeteD · 08-14-2025, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Technically the Autographs are still an insert set so you can go as far back as the 1997 Bowman Roy Halladay AU and the 1997 Donruss Signature David Ortiz AU. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Joe Mauer holds that title for now until Albert Pujols is inducted.

So Verlander will be the 1'st true Superfractor Auto?

ironfireman · 09-16-2025, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tyrith

2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total

AGE 25

Moreno, Gabriel 5.6 + 1.9 = 7.5
Perdomo, Geraldo 4.8 + 3.7 = 8.5

I don't think there's a ton to say about either of these guys. Perdomo is having a nice season, Moreno is just steady eddy, but neither of these guys is going to wind up in the HOF.

Been keeping my eye on Perdomo. Dude just took the lead in NL position player bWAR at 6.6 - He's probably still 3rd at fangraphs if they'd ever update their stats! Probably round 6.5 fWAR - 25 yr old pretty good SS - no eye popping numbers but an MVPish season and the D-baks just extended him this spring for 4/5 so he'll be in the bandbox for awhile.

Skipscards · 09-17-2025, 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteD

So Verlander will be the 1'st true Superfractor Auto?

I think Mauer has a 1st Super auto?

itsbaytime · 09-17-2025, 05:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I think Mauer has a 1st Super auto?

I don't think 02 BC had supers.

Noles939913 · 09-17-2025, 09:32 AM

Can someone explain how Matt Olson has 39.7 WAR using one and only 29.7 using the other?

Skipscards · 09-17-2025, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I don't think 02 BC had supers.

You’re right. My bad.

mattglet · 09-17-2025, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Can someone explain how Matt Olson has 39.7 WAR using one and only 29.7 using the other?

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advance...ve-replacement

fabiani12333 · 09-17-2025, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Can someone explain how Matt Olson has 39.7 WAR using one and only 29.7 using the other?

Baseball Reference uses DRS and Fangraphs uses OAA (Statcast) for defensive value -- DRS, for some reason, thinks he's been an awesome defender at 1B the last couple of seasons.

Fangraphs also uses XBR (Statcast) for base running, while Baseball Reference doesnt -- XBR thinks he's been a worse base runner.

rwperu34 · 10-03-2025, 02:05 AM

Pitchers

I’m going to lay it out based on how many years ahead or behind the player is compared to the average Hall of Fame pace.

The only adjustment from the original method is I shift the pitchers age back one year relative to hitters. For example, a 23 year old pitcher would have their WAR compared to a 22 year old on the original list. The reason for this is the unpredictable way that pitchers develop late and current usage trends. The way I'm laying it out you'll have no problem viewing it under the original method. Just subtract one from the years behind and ignore everybody that is two back.

I had a difficult time deciding which WAR to use. I settled on Fangraphs, but then I could decide between RA/9 WAR or FIP WAR. I decided to use the higher of the two. It only made any difference at all on a couple of players.

I'll sort it by years ahead/behind, then age, oldest to youngest. I'll put their age in (parenthesis).

Over the Requisite 52 WAR

Justin Verlander (42)
Max Scherzer (40)
Clayton Kershaw (37)
Chris Sale (36)

Sale is at 58.7 FIP WAR, 57.6 RA/9 WAR, 57.3 rWAR and still going strong. He's going to make it.

Three Years Ahead of Pace

Paul Skenes (23)-He could blow out his UCL next April, miss the next two seasons, and still be well ahead of pace. I probably shouldn't say that out loud. My shelves are wood. I have knocked on them.

One Year Ahead of Pace

Eury Perez (22)-It gets funky with the young pitchers because the threshold is so low.

Right On Pace

Jacob deGrom (37)-Only needs 4 more.
Aaron Nola (32)
Logan Webb (28)
Hunter Greene (25)

One Year Behind Pace

Zac Gallen (29)
Tarik Skubal (28)
George Kirby, Jesus Luzardo (27)
Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, Spencer Strider, Andrew Abbott (26)
Bryan Woo, Gavin Williams (25)
Taj Bradley (24)-FIP helps him here. His RA/9 WAR would have him not on the list.
Cade Horton (23)
Chase Burns, Luis Morales, AJ Smith-Shawver (22)

Two Years Behind Pace

Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber (30)
Dylan Cease, Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, Jack Flaherty, Rangers Suarez (29)
Logan Gilbert, Cristofer Sanchez (28)
Trevor Rogers (27)
Tanner Bibee, Yoshinoobu Yamamoto, Brayan Bello, MacKenzie Gore (26)
Spencer Schwellenbach, Reese Olson, Noah Cameron (25)
Simeon Woods-Richardson, Quinn Priester, Michael McGreavy, Cam Schlittler (24)
Nolan McLean, Kyle Harrison, Grant Taylor, Hurston Waldrep, Slade Cecconi, Jacob Misiorowski (23)
Jackson Jobe (22)

Schlittler probably made the HOF tonight. The Blowout version anyways.

09-17-2025, 09:32 AM	#2096
Noles939913 Member Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 7,040	Can someone explain how Matt Olson has 39.7 WAR using one and only 29.7 using the other? __________________ “Mr. Phillips found old Johnny Cash and he was high High before he ever took those pills and he's still too proud to die Mr. Phillips never said anything behind nobody's back Like, "Dammit Elvis, don't he know, he ain't no Johnny Cash"

10-03-2025, 02:05 AM	#2100
rwperu34 Member Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: Tempe, AZ Posts: 8,358	Pitchers I’m going to lay it out based on how many years ahead or behind the player is compared to the average Hall of Fame pace. The only adjustment from the original method is I shift the pitchers age back one year relative to hitters. For example, a 23 year old pitcher would have their WAR compared to a 22 year old on the original list. The reason for this is the unpredictable way that pitchers develop late and current usage trends. The way I'm laying it out you'll have no problem viewing it under the original method. Just subtract one from the years behind and ignore everybody that is two back. I had a difficult time deciding which WAR to use. I settled on Fangraphs, but then I could decide between RA/9 WAR or FIP WAR. I decided to use the higher of the two. It only made any difference at all on a couple of players. I'll sort it by years ahead/behind, then age, oldest to youngest. I'll put their age in (parenthesis). Over the Requisite 52 WAR Justin Verlander (42) Max Scherzer (40) Clayton Kershaw (37) Chris Sale (36) Sale is at 58.7 FIP WAR, 57.6 RA/9 WAR, 57.3 rWAR and still going strong. He's going to make it. Three Years Ahead of Pace Paul Skenes (23)-He could blow out his UCL next April, miss the next two seasons, and still be well ahead of pace. I probably shouldn't say that out loud. My shelves are wood. I have knocked on them. One Year Ahead of Pace Eury Perez (22)-It gets funky with the young pitchers because the threshold is so low. Right On Pace Jacob deGrom (37)-Only needs 4 more. Aaron Nola (32) Logan Webb (28) Hunter Greene (25) One Year Behind Pace Zac Gallen (29) Tarik Skubal (28) George Kirby, Jesus Luzardo (27) Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, Spencer Strider, Andrew Abbott (26) Bryan Woo, Gavin Williams (25) Taj Bradley (24)-FIP helps him here. His RA/9 WAR would have him not on the list. Cade Horton (23) Chase Burns, Luis Morales, AJ Smith-Shawver (22) Two Years Behind Pace Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber (30) Dylan Cease, Sandy Alcantara, Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, Jack Flaherty, Rangers Suarez (29) Logan Gilbert, Cristofer Sanchez (28) Trevor Rogers (27) Tanner Bibee, Yoshinoobu Yamamoto, Brayan Bello, MacKenzie Gore (26) Spencer Schwellenbach, Reese Olson, Noah Cameron (25) Simeon Woods-Richardson, Quinn Priester, Michael McGreavy, Cam Schlittler (24) Nolan McLean, Kyle Harrison, Grant Taylor, Hurston Waldrep, Slade Cecconi, Jacob Misiorowski (23) Jackson Jobe (22) Schlittler probably made the HOF tonight. The Blowout version anyways. __________________ Me: Did I win? Gixen: Yes. You won. Now you're broke.

07-31-2025, 12:33 PM	#2079
tyrith Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 1,903 tyrith	2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total AGE 27 Clase, Emmanuel 8.9 + 1.3 = 10.2 Whelp, this is probably the last time this guy is showing up here. He was actually as on track as a closer can be, but you can't get in the HOF if you have to pitch half your career outside the US to avoid being indicted. Kirby, George 11.3 + 0.9 = 12.2 Who knows with pitchers, but he's gonna have to pitch until he's 40 to have any sort of a shot. Chisholm, Jazz 10.1 + 2.7 = 12.8 I'm probably going to drop Jazz in the offseason, although he might technically be slightly over the old WAR cutoff for age 27. The minimum curve goes up 4.0 from 27 to 28; he might actually still be over the cutoff for age 28 if he repeats this season. He'd just need to have 4 win seasons every year for the next 13 years to have a shot. Rutschman, Adley 13 + 1 = 14 Oh, Adley. I bought heavily on Adley right before he hurt himself last year, and it's just been a mess ever since. I agree with the opinions out there that it'd probably be a good thing for him to get traded - Baltimore hosed him incredibly hard with service time manipulation, and the 3-5 WAR he potentially lost by spending an extra year in the minors could really cost him, particularly after this blip. Honestly, it's probably over for Adley's Hall case with how low on the accumulation curve he is now...but I also still believe he has the possibility of rattling off an 18 win three year stretch here the next few years. But if 2026 isn't a star year, the race is gonna be run. Kwan, Steven 11.9 + 2.7 = 14.6 There are just no signs that Kwan will have the peak years he needs to get into the Hall conversation. I actually am struggling to come up with a good career comp - all the 35-45 win LF types are either way better or way worse on defense than Kwan has been. That's where I expect him to land in a 90th percentile scenario, though. Contreras, William 13.3 + 1.9 = 15.2 His barrel rate (a Fangraphs stat of batted balls with exit velocity and launch angle that lead to at least .500 BA and 1.500 SLG historically) is down over half since last year. So his slugging percentage is down 120 points and his xSLG is down almost as much. His power vanished. If he can get it back, he has a shot; the last two years were really nice. That said, to this point he's been more peak Brian McCann than anything like the catchers that actually make the HOF. With how their career accumulation winds up, a catcher pretty much has to have a top 3 MVP peak to make it. The fact that I think Rutschman can do that is the reason why I'm still in on him. It doesn't feel impossible for Contreras either. Bichette, Bo 16 + 2 = 18 Well, at least he's rebounded from last year. Bo pretty clearly is what he is at this point; after five full and two partial seasons in the majors, there's just no reason to anticipate major skill development. Acuna Jr, Ronald 28.4 + 2.7 = 31.1 There's clearly a world where Acuna winds up a 1st ballot guy. There's also a world where he isn't healthy in his 30s and just peters out; a modern Dave Parker, you might say. The inbetween is the most interesting to think about. Or, to put it differently - how long does he need to stay healthy and productive to get to the Hall on the BBWAA ballot? He's still only had one truly elite year - his MVP season in 2023. Otherwise, he had one 5 win season in 2019 and has had a bunch of 3-4 win seasons when healthy. His WAR total is mostly a function of having become a high quality regular at age 20 - it's easy to picture Jackson Chourio's career looking like this at age 27 if he has a superstar year somewhere in there. Now, 9 plus 6x5 = 39, which is a good enough WAR7 number even if it's not anything crazy. Acuna has serious star power - maybe not Vlad Guerrero Sr level, but he's the best comp I can see right now. But Vlad Sr didn't have the injury issues and still got to 2500 hits and 450 HRs. There aren't a lot of examples of guys that didn't get to that kind of key stat totals and didn't get to 60+ WAR - the HOF examples of those guys are all vet committee admissions. Acuna only has 179 HR and 875 hits as of now...400/2,000 feels impossibly high; he'd have to stay healthy until he's 38 or so. And he's hurt again as I write this. So with all that - I think his best bet is to make it by beating that WAR7 number and just having such an elite peak they can't keep him out. Even if he winds up with modest career totals, a 2nd MVP award (or at least a top 2 or 3 finish) and three peak seasons of 7+ WAR would give him a better peak than a lot of guys. It probably winds up look like Todd Helton's career but with better name value and more injuries.

07-31-2025, 07:11 PM	#2080
redauto5 Member Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 1,307	Thanks for taking this over and doing yoeman's work here man. It's crazy to me that the only fully projectable HOFer under 30 is Soto. Witt is looking good but started a little late, Acuna and Tatis can't stay consistent with performance and injuries. Gunnar is drifting back into good from great. Vladdy's aging curve doesn't look great. Devers, same. Again, I come back to Kyle Tucker. Its a stretch as he started producing older than is preferable and hasn't had a blow out 8 or 9 WAR season. So its Soto, probably Witt, maybe Tucker, and I'm sure 3 or 4 other guys that just take it to another level unexpectedly as well as a guy or 2 mentioned above that can be elite until their late 30's. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

08-06-2025, 12:12 AM	#2082
Jeter1020 Member Join Date: Jul 2024 Posts: 1,596	Wanted to ask. How’s Harper, Judge and Acuna’s chances looking like? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

08-06-2025, 04:35 AM	#2085
Jeter1020 Member Join Date: Jul 2024 Posts: 1,596	Thanks for the responses guys! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

08-07-2025, 07:12 PM	#2086
tyrith Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 1,903 tyrith	FYI - everything before Kyle Tucker was written about a week ago, just been busy. 2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total AGE 28 Hoerner, Nico 15.2 + 2.5 = 17.7 Torres, Gleyber 15.9 + 2.4 = 18.3 Albies, Ozzie 20.5 + 0.7 = 21.2 None of these guys has a single season that would be a top 5 season for a normal HOFer. There's just nothing here. Riley, Austin 18.5 + 2 = 20.5 Riley did have some number of those seasons, at least. At the point where he was supposed to add the elite seasons to the list, he's hit a two year regression that doesn't show any signs of turning around. Never say never, but this feels like a run race to me. Skubal, Tarik 12.6 + 5.2 = 17.8 Modern day pitchers just doesn't get to the IP counts to support truly large single season win totals. Last year Skubal had 5.9 fWAR in 192 innings. That prorates to 6.9 fWAR if he had pitched 225 innings. Max Scherzer had a 6 year stretch where he averaged 218 IP/yr; Justin Verlander had a 4 year stretch where he averaged 238 IP/yr. Skubal is probably going to win consecutive Cy Youngs without cracking 200. That said - if we get a BBWAA crew in 15 years that thinks about this stuff intelligently, this is what the peak of a modern SP HOFer is gonna look like. He's going to be 1st or 2nd in SP WAR (depending on which you look at it) in consecutive seasons - what more can he do? That means it becomes a longevity game. Scherzer, Verlander, and Kershaw all had a sustained 6-8 year peak. Greinke didn't as much, but he also had a 10 WAR season as a pitcher where he threw 229 innings with an ERA+ of 205, and then followed it up by being an ace for another decade. Chris Sale might wind up being the comp - but even he had a 7 year stretch where he accumulated somewhere in the range of 35-38 WAR before his arm fell off. As the saying goes - well begun is half done. He's at least shown he can be a superstar pitcher. Now he has to survive. Raleigh, Cal 13.9 + 6.3 = 20.2 Raleigh is having the peak year I talked about with Rutschman and Contreras in the 27 year olds. He's been really good before this year, but just poking along at that level for 5-8 years isn't really enough to break through, when all these catchers are done by 35. Cal has added both a huge pile of stats and a bunch of name recognition to his career case this year. He's actually having the season that people want to think 2021 Salvador Perez was - lots of power but with a pretty high walk rate, and while his defensive value is down year over year it's still pretty solid. I think this is probably going to be a good enough season that if regressed to just being the guy he was in 2024 for another 4 years or so that he could find his way to the Hall eventually, if he stays in the league long enough to get to, say, 350 HRs on top of it. Webb, Logan 18.8 + 3.5 = 22.3 I think Logan Webb is drawing live for the HOF. If he's going to make it, he both needs to still have the best 2-3 years of his career and also pitch for another decade. He's got a career low FIP number this year, and he's on this 3rd season in a row of leading the league in IP, so both seem possible. Having Paul Skenes is in his league is a problem in terms of actually ever winning the Cy Young, though, and getting at least one would be a huge boon. It's not a requirement - Mussina got in on the BBWAA ballot without one - but it'd sure be nice. Alvarez, Yordan 23.2 + -0.2 = 23 I'm an Astros fan and I own plenty of nice Yordan cards, but I'm out on him as a HOFer. He's just not gonna stay healthy, and he's not going to stay healthy enough to play the field, so he's going to have the perpetual headwind of being a big bodied single position DH as he gets into his 30s. He's also losing too much of his stat accumulation to both this season he's mostly missed and the chunks of games he misses every other season. Tucker, Kyle 20.9 + 4 = 24.9 So far, this year has landed between his performance in his abbreviated 2024 season (which was a pro-rated 8 win season) and the 5 win baseline he was at before that. Because his best season got cut off by injury, he still doesn't have a true signature season, and just getting to around 6 wins this year doesn't really change that. Personally, I'm mostly dubious that he has a top 3 MVP finish in him, and it's going to be tough for him to get to major career milestones. His first year as a regular was the COVID year, so he didn't play 100 games in a season until he was 24 and then lost half his age 27 season, so he's only at 143 HRs (as of 8/7) and 726 hits. The only way he has a chance without spiking a 15 win two year peak here soon is to stay at this level until he's 36 or so and getting a WAR total in the high 60s at least. Even Scott Rolen had a 9 win peak season, but that's the sort of career we'd be looking at. But Tucker also has the defensive profile of a guy that winds up as a LF/DH by his mid 30s...it's going to be tough. It feels like a lot of Tucker's high order outcomes still wind up looking like a Bobby Abreu kind of career, and Abreu is only getting 15% of the BBWAA vote. Something to consider, also, is that when we talk about there being 39 active Hall of Famers on average historically, that includes guys that got in as the bad Vet Committee admits. There are likely going to be some guys that get selected akin to Dave Parker and Harold Baines, and I could see a world where that happens for both Bobby Abreu (who is dramatically better than those guys as a HOF candidate) and Kyle Tucker. Devers, Rafael 25.7 + 2.2 = 27.9 Devers is in even worse shape than Tucker even though he was the WAR lead; he has a 6.5 fWAR season at age 22 and hasn't been north of 5.0 ever since. That's just not going to get it done, and there's very little sign that he'll get the value total into the territory it needs to be, especially as a 1B/DH whose position/defense adjustment is now into Ohtani/Soto territory. His best case is to play until he's 38 at least and get to 2500 hits and at least 400 HRs. His batted ball power-type stats are still pretty good, so it's certainly possible. There just isn't really a sign that he's going to have more peak years to get to the 40 WAR7 that's needed to get to the Hall without an MVP peak.

08-09-2025, 06:12 PM	#2087
tyrith Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 1,903 tyrith	2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total We're now at the stage where we might have more than one year in a post. 29 Adames, Willy 21.5 + 2.1 = 23.6 There's just nothing here to build a HOF case around. He's an above average starter, but even Hall of Very Good would be a stretch of a label for someone that's never made the ASG. He needed to take one more step up this season and has instead seen his offensive numbers take a slight step back. 29 Bellinger, Cody 23.8 + 3.2 = 27 He's on year three of a career revival, and this is looking more like his 2023 season that really got him out of the dumpster. But he's still never gotten his walk rate back to where it was at his peak - it died in 2021 and has stayed dead ever since. It's really, really hard to have HOF-level peak years around a .330 OBP as an OF; the positional adjustments just eat their lunch. 30 Smith, Will 18.3 + 3.8 = 22.1 Smith has managed to revive his relevance this season. That said, it still feels more like he's on a JT Realmuto path than a true HOF path. As I've talked about with the other catchers, they really need to have a top 3 MVP kind of peak to get there with their likely stat totals, and Smith hasn't had that kind of season. Oddly for a catcher, his bWAR and fWAR totals are within about a win now. 30 Burnes, Corbin 21.5 + 0.7 = 22.2 This TJ is probably going to kill Burnes's shot. Besides his 2020 and 2021, he hasn't really had a true HOF peak yet, and now he's going to be out until his age 32 season. His age 32-38 would have to look around as good as Max Scherzer's to have a real shot - something in the 30-35 WAR range. So far he's only pitched about 1/3 as many career innings as Clayton Kershaw and 1/2 as many as Chris Sale, much less the more healthy HOF types. 30 Correa, Carlos 38 + 1.1 = 39.1 I'm again going to put aside the Astros trash can saga here. Correa really can't afford to be petering out as quickly as it seems like he's going to. Jeremy Pena isn't an FA until after 2027; Correa is likely permanently off SS as his daily role now. His career is a WAR argument - still only has 195 HR and under 1300 hits - and being a 2B or 3B is going to make adding to that much harder if he's OBP is going to run sub 350. His chance (again, barring the Astros stuff) is still non-zero; the only players his age or younger that have more career fWAR are the next guy on this post and Juan Soto. He needs to get back to where he was in 2024 to make that happen, which is roughly a 4 win player, and get at least 4 more seasons at that level. I don't really expect that to happen, and I think his career fWAR total is more likely to wind up in the low 50s. He does have a roughly 5 win bWAR/fWAR gap, which could help in a marginal case, also this season has shrunk that gap by over a win so far. 30 Ohtani, Shohei 40.2 + 5 = 45.2 Shohei is a lock, of course. He's getting into territory where he's close to having actual HOF comps - for instance, David Ortiz and Joe Mauer only wound up around 55 bWAR each and Ohtani is at 49. The real question is how high he goes. I'm of the mind that he's mostly cooked as a pitcher, even though his 19 innings this season have been worth around half a win as it is. But I'm more interested in looking at him as a hitter. He's on track for about a 7 win season this year, which would give him a three year stretch right around 23. The only guys active that can do better than that are Trout (who could beat it with any combo of three full time seasons pre-COVID), 2016-2019 Mookie, and the last four years of Aaron Judge. Two more years at this level would already get him to around 50 WAR as a batter at age 32, just a tad short of where Bryce Harper is now. If we give him a 6-5-4-3-2-1 stairstep down from there - which is lazy but along the lines of what I'd expect from a projection system - that's another 20 WAR, giving him a career total around 70 as a batter and in the low 80s total. The only active batter north of 80 is Trout, and the only two non-young guys that seem like they have a real chance to get there are Betts and Judge. That'd be insane for a player that didn't become a star until age 26; there are essentially no historical comps for that, and the only one that really exists is comparing Judge and Ohtani to each other. Guys like Trout, Griffey, Beltre all started around 20; that's why we hype up current players like Jackson Chourio so much. There are some examples of players that started at age 23 - Chipper Jones and Jeff Bagwell, for a couple - but this is still nuts. Copy/paste (in your heads) most of this section for Aaron Judge.

08-13-2025, 09:36 PM	#2088
tyrith Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 1,903 tyrith	2024 WAR + 2025 WAR through 7/24 = total 31 Hader, Josh 12.2 + 1.1 = 13.3 Hader actually has a shot if he plays until he's 38-40, which is just kind of how it goes for relievers. WAR target would be something in the 27+ range. Hader might have a serious shoulder injury now, and if so that's probably gonna derail his career in a way where he won't be on the tracker in a year. 31 Diaz, Edwin 13.3 + 1.4 = 14.7 Diaz is also probably going to need to pitch until his late 30s, but he's on the right arc. No one really cares above saves as a standalone anymore, but he's on 248 as of Aug 12. If he can finish his age 37 season in the mid 400s, that would put him in a pretty similar position to Kenley Jansen. It's all gonna be about how long his body holds up from here. 31 Swanson, Dansby 25.1 + 2.2 = 27.3 31 Olson, Matt 26.6 + 3.1 = 29.7 Both of these guys are likely drops in the next 1-2 years. The old tracker minimum WAR requirements are very soft in the 30s and aren't indicative of what it would actually take to get to the HOF without winning some major awards or being a long time playoff hero. 31 Marte, Ketel 28 + 3.3 = 31.3 Unlike Swanson and Olson, I feel like I could construct a hypothetical scenario where Marte gets there. He's on a 2nd season of a 162 game pace around 7 to 8 WAR. If he could actually play 155 games at this level for a year or two, you're actually starting to look at a pretty nice career peak, especially since he'd certainly pick up another one or two top 5 MVP finishes in the process. This is a very narrow window; we're talking about a guy peaking out during what is typically an accumulation period for most HOF guys. He also has played 150 games once since 2018, so he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone. But I can at least build a scenario where he gets to 60 WAR that doesn't strike me as completely insane, which is pretty impressive for a guy that only had one star season after age 28. 31 Seager, Corey 37.2 + 3 = 40.2 Probably only going to play about 120 games again. He debuted a full season before Bregman and is now 70 games played behind him. He's had a massive spike in his walk rate this season, so his OBP is getting close to some of the years where he had massive BABIP spikes earlier in his career. 31 Bregman, Alex 39.5 + 2.2 = 41.7 Astros blah blah. Bregman has actually added a full win in the last three weeks, since I pulled the numbers. His batted ball stats are really strong this year, although he's also still getting a huge boost from BABIP variance as well. If he was going to play 150 games this would be the sort of 6 win season he desperately needs, but instead it's going to be another that lands in the 4-5 range. Defense is down from last year, but he's been very up or down in defensive value over his career. 31 Lindor, Francisco 54.3 + 3.3 = 57.6 Please refer to any of my other rants on Francisco Lindor. Barring the usual caveats about DV/PEDs, he's going to be in the Hall. This season isn't up to the standard of the last few for him, he's losing incremental walk rate and his barrel rate has tanked, but it's pretty similar to his 2021 season. It's really a question of if he winds up as Barry Larkin or as an Adrian Beltre type, depending on how long he stays an above average starter.

08-13-2025, 10:16 PM	#2089
itsbaytime Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 762	Excellent work, as always!