HOF Pace Tracker

[TheVolta]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Pitchers

Schlittler probably made the HOF tonight. The Blowout version anyways.

The whole post was awesome but this part was golden.

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Pitchers


Schlittler probably made the HOF tonight. The Blowout version anyways.

I think the Yankees are retiring his number today.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by fulltritty

I think the Yankees are retiring his number today.

Look how far the Yankees have fallen. They used to celebrate championships. Now they celebtrate winning the wild card series. They used to sign the best free agents. Now they sign with the Dodgers and Mets. 2009 must feel like a lifetime ago. It is getting hard to hate them anymore.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by rats60

Look how far the Yankees have fallen. They used to celebrate championships. Now they celebtrate winning the wild card series. They used to sign the best free agents. Now they sign with the Dodgers and Mets. 2009 must feel like a lifetime ago. It is getting hard to hate them anymore.

Yankees literally just signed Max Fried this year.

[rwperu34]

Batters

These are using the orignal numbers. I will list them in order of how many WAR ahead of pace they are for their age;

Over the Requisite 52 WAR


Mike Trout (33)-Trout is the same age as Aaron Judge. He's still got a 26 WAR lead and will probably end up ahead at the end of their careers, but there is a chance... The other ridiculous Trout stat is he's 45 WAR ahead of what the average HOFer had at the end of his age 33 season.

Francisco Lindor (31)
Mookie Betts (32)
Aaron Judge (33)
Jose Ramirez (32)
Freddie Freeman (35)
Manny Machado (32)-This is the first player on this list that, IMO, is not a lock if he retired today.
Bryce Harper (32)
Jose Altuve (35)-Altuve needs 622 hits to reach 3,000. He's signed for four more years. He has 611 over his last four seasons. Given that his production will likely decline, he'll probably need another year or two after this contract to make it.
Paul Goldschmidt (37)
Andrew McCutchen (38)-McCutchen is stiing at 52.3 and going backwards. The longer he can stay replacement level or better the more likely he is to make it.

Seven Years Ahead Of Pace

Juan Soto (26)
Shohei Ohtani (30)

Next year Ohtani will become the youngest player on the list...until Soto gets to 52 in 2027 or 2028. Soto is actually farther ahead of pace than Ohtani by quite a bit.

Four Years Ahead Of Pace

Nolan Arenado (34)-Only had 0.9 WAR this year. If he can repeat that performance next year he'll be over.

Three Years Ahead Of Pace

Ronald Acuna Jr. (26)
Bobby Witt Jr. (25)
Julio Rodriguez (24)
Trea Turner (32)

Two Years Ahead Of Pace

Fernado Tatis Jr. (26)
Gunnar Henderson (24)
Corbin Carroll (24)
Alex Bregman (31)
Jackson Chourio (21)

One Year Ahead Of Pace

Carlos Correa (30)
Elly De La Cruz (23)
Corey Seager (31)
Xander Bogaerts (32)
Jackson Merrill (22)
Rafael Devers (28)
Christian Yelich (33)
Junior Caminero (21)

Right On Pace

Valdimir Guerrero Jr. (26)-Vladito is signed for 14 years and needs 1,923 hits for 3,000. He's averaged about 175 per year over the last four. If you figure he's got six more at that level, that leave him 8 years to get 900...in case you're wondering why his cards are priced so high.
Michael Harris (24)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (23)
Roman Anthony (21)
Nick Kurtz (22)
James Wood (22)
Wyatt Langford (23)
Riley Greene (24)
Francisco Alvarez (23)
Kyle Tucker (28)

Anybody from Anthony or below that puts up less than 4 WAR next year is falling behind.

[rwperu34]

One Year Behind Pace

Masyn Winn (23)
Cody Bellinger (29)-He needs about 4.2 WAR next year to be on pace.
Ezequiel Tovar (23)
Jackson Holliday (21)
Evan Carter (22)-Still producing at ~4.8 per 162 for his career. That shows how ridiculous the 2023 start to his career was.
Geraldo Perdomo (25)
Bo Bichette (27)
Yordan Alvarez (28)-A full, typical Yordan year gets him back on track.
Andres Gimenez (26)
Zach Neto (24)
Giancarlo Stanton (35)-Probably needs 500, but isn't that far off of the WAR pace. He can get to 52.
Cal Raleigh (28)-He was only two years behind pace at the start of the year (surprising), but closer to falling three years behind that moving up the chart. Needs 6 WAR next year to be on pace, which will be pretty close to his median projection.
Alejandro Kirk (26)
CJ Abrams (24)
Anthony Volpe (24)
Ozzie Albies (28)
Ketel Marte (31)

Only five of these seventeen had over 4 WAR this year (the number it takes to gain on the pace). Only two were over 5 (Perdomo 7.1, Raleigh 9.1).

Two Years Behind Pace

Sorted by age;

(21) Cole Young
(22) Luke Keaschall, Daylen Lile, Cam Smith, Jasson Dominguez
(23) Jacob Wilson, Colt Keith, Colson Montgomery, Tyler Soderstrom, Nolan Schauel, Kyle Teel
(24) Andy Pages, Lawrence Butler, Ceddane Rafaela
(25) Maikel Garcia, Gabreil Moreno, Austin Wells, Brice Turang
(26) Isaac Paredes, Patcik Bailey
(27) William Conteras, Steven Quan, Adley Rutschman, Jeremy Pena, Jazz Chisholm, Luis Robert Jr.
(28) Austin Riley, Nico Hoerner, Gleyber Torres
(29) None
(30) None
(31) Matt Olson
(32) Matt Chapman

30 players on this list. Only Maikel Garcia (5.6) and Jeremy Pena (5.7) had over 5 WAR.

Keep in mind, the younger or older the player the easier it is to make up ground. Over 35 needs less than 2 WAR. Under 24 needs less than 3. It is that 25-31 range where it takes at least 3.5, if not over 4.

[rwperu34]

One more note on batters. If they were on my prospect list, I did not include them here. That's Moises Ballesteros and Dylan Beavers for sure. There may have been a few others. I was not nearly as good at filtering the pitching prospects (in no small part because I haven't made that list yet!), so a few might have made it on to this list.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rats60

Look how far the Yankees have fallen. They used to celebrate championships. Now they celebtrate winning the wild card series. They used to sign the best free agents. Now they sign with the Dodgers and Mets. 2009 must feel like a lifetime ago. It is getting hard to hate them anymore.

If you mean Lindor, the Yankees had Gleyber at SS in 2021. They already had Soto and let him go.

If you're talking Ohtani, I don't think he was ever leaving the Los Angeles area. After that, the Dodgers were for sure first choice for Yamamoto and Roki.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

If you mean Lindor, the Yankees had Gleyber at SS in 2021. They already had Soto and let him go.

If you're talking Ohtani, I don't think he was ever leaving the Los Angeles area. After that, the Dodgers were for sure first choice for Yamamoto and Roki.

The Yankees didn't let Soto go.....

[seanrs1]

New season is arriving soon! Is Silent George ever coming back? Is anyone else planning to continue this thread or start a new one like it?