✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

For the 3 people who pointed out that Judge sucked in April

He has been so good the rest of the season I honestly forgot

Just imagine his numbers right now if he even had an average April, look at his numbers after his first ejection on May 3rd they are astronomical.

[seanrs1]

So how did the low end and mid end RC market collapse in one year (as it is not performance based)? Consolidation might be one factor but it doesn't seem to be the whole explanation. Did Ohtani lose a part of his fan base? Are low and mid end collectors leaving the market? Are there no new Ohtani collectors?

I completely understand why the Ohtani high end RC market is bonkers based on supply and demand. I just don't understand how Ohtani is likely going to win a 3rd MVP and his low and mid end RC cards have taken a nose dive. Did the supply drastically go up or his demand drastically go down?

Either way it allows me to buy at a much lower price (compared to last years peak), so I am not complaining. And I can't think of any of my cards that I am under water on based on current comps. I bought most of my low end base/inserts at $15 or below and majority below $10.

I am just trying to understand the current market especially when I compare to what Aaron Judge low and mid end RC are doing.

I am still of the belief Ohtani is a good buy right now at current prices. The cost of 2018 wax is astronomical so its not like supply is going to go up much...and I only see demand going up as time goes on (I assume the hobby will continue to grow and Ohtani will be high on most wish lists).

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by Qubits

On the Judge market, I have no idea about that one as I've never bought a single Judge card. Does he have as many rookies in 2017 products as Ohtani has in 2018? If not, that could explain why those cards hold up a little better.

He has a ton of Topps RC cards in 2017. Almost identical to Ohtani except flip flop series 1 & 2. Multiple RC's in Update. Lots of sets to choose from.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

There's definitely a lot of people trying to trade up or do cash+trade. It's obnoxious how many people message me for this on eBay.

Okay, okay, I will stop doing it.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

oh for sure. its still terrible in 2024

the hobby is extremely racist unfortunately

Disagree.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Okay, okay, I will stop doing it.

If you agree to come out of retirement I'll give you some sweet deals

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Its a good thing I am a long term collector! I know the super high end Ohtani RC are near all time highs...doesn't make a whole lot of sense why low end and mid end RC are down 50% or more from last years peak. I get the high print runs, but the amount they have gone down would seem like the market thinks he is having a bad year...but he is having a MVP year.

It also doesn't make sense to me that all Judge cards, low end, mid end, and high end RC are going up. Many of his low end sell for more than Ohtani. I know his high end are way below Ohtani. So why are Judge RC cards going up compared to Ohtani. Ohtani to me is the clear long term buy over Judge and he is younger.

I guess I just don't understand the baseball card market!

I'll try to answer your question but have to pick a fight with this one

Judge first off broke the HR record in 2022 and is pretty unanimously the best hitter in MLB this season

So if anything his cards should be up and ohtanis should be down...where as what I am seeing is his are relatively stable (down probably 30-40% from 2022) and ohtanis have been dipping probably 20%-30 from his dodgers signing and about 50% from his peak market (july/august 2023)

Now on the high end part - you have to be careful as there is a lot of manipulation going on. A lot of these guys know each other and imo there could be some shilling going on. Obviously harder with a place like goldin vs. ebay, so I would say use that instead to get a gauge on the market

All in all they are both great players to hold long term and I wouldn't be too worried

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I'll try to answer your question but have to pick a fight with this one

Judge first off broke the HR record in 2022 and is pretty unanimously the best hitter in MLB this season

So if anything his cards should be up and ohtanis should be down...where as what I am seeing is his are relatively stable (down probably 30-40% from 2022) and ohtanis have been dipping probably 20%-30 from his dodgers signing and about 50% from his peak market (july/august 2023)

Now on the high end part - you have to be careful as there is a lot of manipulation going on. A lot of these guys know each other and imo there could be some shilling going on. Obviously harder with a place like goldin vs. ebay, so I would say use that instead to get a gauge on the market

All in all they are both great players to hold long term and I wouldn't be too worried

I am in essential agreement with your observations! I agree that Judge cards should be up due to his performance. But why should Ohtani cards be down...especially some 50% or more from peak. If they were off by 10-20% I could sort of understand. But the guy is still likely to win his 3rd MVP.

I also agree his long term outlook is positive!

[ThoseBackPages]

sean may be the boards most worried collector

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am in essential agreement with your observations! I agree that Judge cards should be up due to his performance. But why should Ohtani cards be down...especially some 50% or more from peak. If they were off by 10-20% I could sort of understand. But the guy is still likely to win his 3rd MVP.

I also agree his long term outlook is positive!

I think two points

1) he isn't pitching this year
2) his rookie cards aren't in the team he is playing for currently

That said...long term I don't think either of these are a concern

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

sean may be the boards most worried collector

I think I might need to send you a photo of my Tatis and Wander collections! Massive is an understatement!!!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I think I might need to send you a photo of my Tatis and Wander collections! Massive is an understatement!!!

then it would be in your best interest to no longer buy anyone that is still breathing

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

then it would be in your best interest to no longer buy anyone that is still breathing

Agreed...but what is the fun in that!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Agreed...but what is the fun in that!

for sure!

but stop worrying about what % cards are down (or up!)

collect and enjoy the ride

[boxbuster7]

I will say that 5 years from now anybody holding ohtani and judge rookies today will be very happy

[Trueblue]

I think you'd worry about me rather than the Shohei market if you ever saw my total Sho collection. On a serious note, you need to believe in the legacy and not the baseball player. The prices will sort itself out later.

[seanrs1]

I am in essential agreement with everyone on here! This is why I collect Ohtani!!! Like I said before, I am looking at this as a buying opportunity. If base cards were $50 and SP and SSP many multiples, I would just be sitting on my collection and observing!

I am just trying to understand the current Ohtani market that I participate in. If I was worried I would just stop buying! Instead I am doubling down and not selling!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I think you'd worry about me rather than the Shohei market if you ever saw my total Sho collection. On a serious note, you need to believe in the legacy and not the baseball player. The prices will sort itself out later.

there is a whole lotta truth in the bolded statement

Ohtani is already "larger" than just being a 'baseball player"

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Agreed...but what is the fun in that!

Might not be as exciting, but you also don't gotta worry that Ty Cobb is gonna tear his ACL and cause his cards to drop by 50%.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

If you agree to come out of retirement I'll give you some sweet deals

Fair...I hang around a baseball card forum and look at way too many baseball cards at night. So far, the desire has been subdued, but yeah, the struggle is real.

It's also the three-year anniversary of my Ohtani sale.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

There's definitely a lot of people trying to trade up or do cash+trade. It's obnoxious how many people message me for this on eBay.

what card?

[Tim]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So how did the low end and mid end RC market collapse in one year (as it is not performance based)? Consolidation might be one factor but it doesn't seem to be the whole explanation. Did Ohtani lose a part of his fan base? Are low and mid end collectors leaving the market? Are there no new Ohtani collectors?

I completely understand why the Ohtani high end RC market is bonkers based on supply and demand. I just don't understand how Ohtani is likely going to win a 3rd MVP and his low and mid end RC cards have taken a nose dive. Did the supply drastically go up or his demand drastically go down?

Either way it allows me to buy at a much lower price (compared to last years peak), so I am not complaining. And I can't think of any of my cards that I am under water on based on current comps. I bought most of my low end base/inserts at $15 or below and majority below $10.

I am just trying to understand the current market especially when I compare to what Aaron Judge low and mid end RC are doing.

I am still of the belief Ohtani is a good buy right now at current prices. The cost of 2018 wax is astronomical so its not like supply is going to go up much...and I only see demand going up as time goes on (I assume the hobby will continue to grow and Ohtani will be high on most wish lists).

On the one hand, you ask this question multiple times daily. But on the other hand, no one has given a satisfactory answer yet, so I don't blame you. Seeing some other players' cards, who are having the same or slightly inferior or superior seasons, hold or rise and watching O's base cards tumble (more than) 50% is very perplexing to me too. My niche is sealed product so I know my stuff there but I must really not understand the card market itself when I see (one example) a #700 Gem go from $350 to $85 in just one year's time when O has a better team, an MVP season (as a DH no less), WS hero potential (at the least post-game exposure), and upside for the next season, and the already acknowledged incredible legacy brewing. It's mind numbing to understand this.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

what card?

Really any higher end card, especially autos. People want to take many cards in the hundreds and turn them into a few cards in the thousands. That train left a while ago though.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Tim

On the one hand, you ask this question multiple times daily. But on the other hand, no one has given a satisfactory answer yet, so I don't blame you. Seeing some other players' cards, who are having the same or slightly inferior or superior seasons, hold or rise and watching O's base cards tumble (more than) 50% is very perplexing to me too. My niche is sealed product so I know my stuff there but I must really not understand the card market itself when I see (one example) a #700 Gem go from $350 to $85 in just one year's time when O has a better team, an MVP season (as a DH no less), WS hero potential (at the least post-game exposure), and upside for the next season, and the already acknowledged incredible legacy brewing. It's mind numbing to understand this.

It has very little to do with Ohtani and a lot to do with the fact that there's like 345,000 copies of #700 in existence, the majority of which are in gem mint condition.

[SidVish]

Let's get back to cards...latest pickups x2.