📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[ninjabum87]

Originally Posted by MavsRChamps

I'm less critical of Kaboom cards because there's no insert set like it out there ... So supply is > compared to many individual cards but the amount of "Gold" shiny cards /10 from all the sets like Prizm, Optic, Select, Mosaic etc etc. far outweighs the amount of Kabooms there are. Plus add in all the other parallels from those sets & they're not unique at all.

They have the same pattern post-2019 that a low tier revolution parallel does (impact) so that always lowered my desire for them drastically.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Did anyone get out of the hobby yet?

Panini, with their terrible card designs in recent years, has made it very easy to buy a lot fewer singles.

And I don't expect Topps to be much better when they finally start printing fully-licensed cards.

There's just a lot of newer overprinted garbage out there.

I'm always on the look-out for older cards, but not many pop-up that I want.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by ninjabum87

They have the same pattern post-2019 that a low tier revolution parallel does (impact) so that always lowered my desire for them drastically.

pattern snob.

[WaiverWire]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Did anyone get out of the hobby yet?

Cue quote from The Godfather Part III. “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”

In all seriousness though, I’m like 85-90% out.

[ninjabum87]

I have one or two more cards I'd like to get over the next year or so and then I'm on hiatus.

[PuddleMonkey]

We're far from the bottom, there's 4 or 5 WNBA threads on page 1. People barely watch the NBA you can stop pretending to care about the WNBA.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

We're far from the bottom, there's 4 or 5 WNBA threads on page 1. People barely watch the NBA you can stop pretending to care about the WNBA.

flipperbois

[Nomad]

Can you imagine being in a job in an exponentially growing industry and watch your modest-from-the-start wordly stay the same over 14 years? That's what your average prospecting player collectr experience is and why it's impossible to see it as anything other than a long term retirement play.

[WaiverWire]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

We're far from the bottom, there's 4 or 5 WNBA threads on page 1. People barely watch the NBA you can stop pretending to care about the WNBA.

99% of the WNBA stuff gonna tank hard. The quality just isn’t there. As noted by others, not a single on card WNBA Caitlin Clark auto, as of yet. Just stickers. It’s a lot of printing. Not a lot of quality. And the prices aren’t good either.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Can you imagine being in a job in an exponentially growing industry and watch your modest-from-the-start wordly stay the same over 14 years? That's what your average prospecting player collectr experience is and why it's impossible to see it as anything other than a long term retirement play.

what?

[rainmaker]

WNBA cards are clearly a flippers paradise should be easy to read the peak and subsequent crash. If I had any interest in following it I would be having a field day. Its the most obvious $ making short term flip since 2021.

This isn't completely knocking WNBA. I could certainly see the bubble will bring more long term collectors than once was but, yeah, get while the getting is good and make sure to move that potato the moment it gets warm!

[boxbuster7]

it is pretty much the last thing that hasn't been pumped by the "hobby"

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

what?

I was just likening the prospect player card collecting experience to being a writer in an age of AI. You inhabit the bottom rung, even as your/your players' skill and ability increases (assuming top 20 percent of the class), the actual value of the cards/written product stays steady and even declines relative to inflation.

Example: Double A NT /99 just sold for $317. That's roughly the same as what I paid for mine three years ago. However, looking at other players in the 20-21 class, those who were neck and neck are now $20 to $100. (Obi Toppin is also strong at $306).

But fast forward 20 years, the kids who got excited by the team and player back in the day are now prime earners, so the cards turn out to be a great long term play. Or as a writer, your masterpiece gets published just in time to usher you into a retirement home.

I personally do not mind. It's nice to have the collection to revel in and as a security blanket.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I was just likening the prospect player card collecting experience to being a writer in an age of AI. You inhabit the bottom rung, even as your/your players' skill and ability increases (assuming top 20 percent of the class), the actual value of the cards/written product stays steady and even declines relative to inflation.

Example: Double A NT /99 just sold for $317. That's roughly the same as what I paid for mine three years ago. However, looking at other players in the 20-21 class, those who were neck and neck are now $20 to $100. (Obi Toppin is also strong at $306).

But fast forward 20 years, the kids who got excited by the team and player back in the day are now prime earners, so the cards turn out to be a great long term play. Or as a writer, your masterpiece gets published just in time to usher you into a retirement home.

I personally do not mind. It's nice to have the collection to revel in and as a security blanket.

This is only true if you are bad at prospecting.

Your only frame of reference is Nesmith (and other random bad players on whatever team Nesmith is on) who was never a good prospect and was never going to be a good hobby player.

[jcardstore]

The craziest part is that everyone on this board has been telling you and you still can't seem to understand

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

This is only true if you are bad at prospecting.

Your only frame of reference is Nesmith (and other random bad players on whatever team Nesmith is on) who was never a good prospect and was never going to be a good hobby player.

I will book mark that and come back at you when he and Nembhard are back to guide a team that seems to have found a center (watch the Pels get schooled tonight). I would say that the playing time all the young guys are getting and the rest Nesmith is getting make an even more impressive Indy late season run likely.

Okay you say "hobby player," but actually collectors themselves define who are hobby players. In an ideal hobby, winning has its own gravity. Is it fair to keep that dream alive? To think the hobby can evolve, as baseball did? Or should we really stop buying prospects, knowing that only the annointed will hold any value.

Let us allow for a fair battle. Because actually if only Ant, Lamello, and Ty are allowed to rise in the 20-21 class, and everyone can fall but not rise, it gets super boring. Trying to decide whether to invest in another player collection and right now my thought is anyone affordable is already written off. So looking at stamps, which have fallen so far there might be a value play. And where an issue is an issue.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I will book mark that and come back at you when he and Nembhard are back to guide a team that seems to have found a center (watch the Pels get schooled tonight). I would say that the playing time all the young guys are getting and the rest Nesmith is getting make an even more impressive Indy late season run likely.

Okay you say "hobby player," but actually collectors themselves define who are hobby players. In an ideal hobby, winning has its own gravity. Is it fair to keep that dream alive? To think the hobby can evolve, as baseball did.

Let us allow for a fair battle. Because actually if only Ant, Lamello, and Ty are allowed to rise in the 20-21 class, and everyone can fall but not rise, it gets super boring. Trying to decide whether to invest in another player collection and right now my thought is anyone affordable is already written off. So looking at stamps, which have fallen so far there might be a value play.

you can dream and pretend about whatever kind of hobby you want. It's not going to change the reality of what the hobby is and what the hobby values. Your refusal to accept reality will prevent you from ever making money

It's your money that you're going to lose anyways. It wouldn't even matter if you looked at your Nesmith PC as an actual PC and not like some kind of investment but you're deadset on somehow turning a profit.

[Nomad]

I disagree completely. A rare card of a veteran known name is a rare card of a veteran known name.

Is there not a market for ultra rare cards of players of the 90s who were respected in their times and still remembered? Have the prices not been on a steady growth arc? If not, is there not a value play in such cards? As the MJs and Kobes become unaffordable. After all, a lot of these cards are locked up in collections.

I am not talking about prices rising sharply tomorrow. I am talking 20 years down the line. If the cards being prospected do not hold any future value, why are hobby people not reorienting the algorithms so that they do.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I disagree completely. A rare card of a veteran known name is a rare card of a veteran known name.

Is there not a market for ultra rare cards of players of the 90s who were respected in their times and still remembered? Have the prices not been on a steady growth arc? If not, is there not a value play in those cards? As the MJ and Kobes become unaffordable.

How did we even get to ultra rare 90s? If you look at the "no-names" you'll see the same downward sloping line coming out of the covid boom.

We're talking about prospecting. If you buy an ultra rare card of a random nobody, it's just going to go down in value over time.

Being artificially scarce doesn't matter. Sure, there are some (very few) exceptions but not enough to matter.

[ninjabum87]

What's "boring" doesn't matter. How many collectible guys considered to have strong collector bases with steady value have come out of even the past 35 years? There's like 3 or 4 from the 90s, Lebron, Steph, then to a lesser extent KD, and then in modern the threads start splintering out. As time goes on those various threads terminate or nosedive as the collector culture as a whole begins to revolve around a few key guys. There are of course always set collectors or people who collect guys like Chris Webber or Sprewell-tier guys. There's gonna be people who gravitate towards being Steven Adams or Draymond supercollectors, but we shouldn't pretend the general hobby cares about those guys.

Just because you think the hobby should work in a different fashion doesn't mean it will, Nomad. You're fighting human nature. Even the biggest Luka collectors would probably immediately begin liquidating if he retired or got hurt and left the NBA as of today and he already has a better career than Nesmith ever could. What you value and what most people value is not in alignment. So much of this hobby is based on perceived value of your own collection in the eyes of the rest of the hobby that you're never going to change that behavior.

[Nomad]

I see the issue. You are considering Nesmith a no-name, when he clearly is not. He is right there in the Toppin, Okongwu range, winning players who sell (and with higher potential, found a move to the basket just before injury). I mean, comparing players on the same team, you can love Toppin all you want (and I do) but he is not sniffing the starting lineup even with five key players out.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I see the issue. You are considering Nesmith a no-name, when he clearly is not. He is right there in the Toppin, Okongwu range, players who sell. And with higher potential.

and we're just back to your fantasy land that nobody believes in but you.

No matter the evidence, you'll never get it. Nesmith has ZERO hobby value. Absolutely ZERO. You're probably the single biggest buyer. There's no floor to his cards because they will all trend to $0.

Obi Toppin? He's not even a good NBA player. At least Nesmith has some real life value.

You just can't figure out why things work in a certain way and you're intent on forcing your (wrong)opinions on a market that will never care.

Like I said, it's just your money that you will lose, and even then you'll still probably deny it

[Nomad]

I think that it just takes a few more collectors thinking the way I do. That's what's great about a hobby. There was an episode a few weeks ago about someone who bought a master collection of some NFL linebacker for like $20k. It barely even included rookies, was all the late career Flawless bling. The guy didn't make the purchase out of charity. He was going to piece it out and make a profit on it.

I think that my approach not only has merit but is the best investment pathway for those who can't afford key issues of top rookies. Put together a top tier collection of a mid-tier player that can't really be replicated. Buyers will establish themselves.

Whatever buyers in New York, China, are looking for, I guarantee you I could go to Indiana in 10 years, assuming Nesmith had a nice career that brought team pride back, and sell the collection for a pretty penny. Someone could do the same with a Myles Turner collection, by the way. I'm being super realistic here. May think Double A is 10 times more valuable than Zion, but I realize his prices will never reach a fraction.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I think that it just takes a few more collectors thinking the way I do. That's what's great about a hobby. There was an episode a few weeks ago about someone who bought a master collection of some NFL linebacker for like $20k. It barely even included rookies, was all the late career Flawless bling. I think that my approach not only has merit but is the best investment pathway for those who can't afford key issues of top rookies. Put together a top tier collection that can't really be replicated.

Whatever buyers in New York, China, are looking for, I guarantee you I could go to Indiana in 10 years, assuming Nesmith had a nice career that brought team pride back, and sell the collection for a pretty penny. Someone could do the same with a Myles Turner collection.

absolutely 0% chance if pretty penny means more than you paid for it, but you're free to believe whatever you want

[ninjabum87]

I feel like best case scenario with something like that is about the same return as a 0% APY savings account over 20 years once you factor in inflation for a role player type of guy.

I'd be interested in that "some linebacker". I better not find out you're comparing Nesmith with someone like Terrell Suggs or some sh*t lmao.