**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by JRX

Trout's BCA will also go down as one of the most famous cards. Even though Pujols' BCA was first it was short printed. The Trout was the one that really set the stage for what we have today.

Interesting thought I had btw. I determined that there’s less Trout BCA’s in entirety, including the base auto, than there is NUMBERED 2023 Bowman Druw Jones autos. Lord knows how high that number increases when including base chrome autos, Sapphire autos etc.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Interesting thought I had btw. I determined that there’s less Trout BCA’s in entirety, including the base auto, than there is NUMBERED 2023 Bowman Druw Jones autos. Lord knows how high that number increases when including base chrome autos, Sapphire autos etc.

Without a doubt. Same goes for Dominguez and probably many others.

[Grave252]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Only on Blowout would anyone ask about Trout being forgotten lol. It's incredible that people can be so absorbed in baseball cards yet so disconnected from the actual sport. You guys are the same adults that buy pokemon cards and graded toys right?

Perhaps forgotten was the wrong word choice, of course he will not be forgotten. But there is also a big disconnect between collectors and the hobby. The hobby has moved to degenerates and gamblers, Blowout is mostly NOT representative of the hobby. The hobby moves past almost everyone at some point when they are no longer active, and in the long run, being a winner matters more and more to collectors who are going to shell out big bucks.

If I want a Trout auto I'll just wait 15 years, at which point some HOF release will come along and I'll get an /10 for $150.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Perhaps forgotten was the wrong word choice, of course he will not be forgotten. But there is also a big disconnect between collectors and the hobby. The hobby has moved to degenerates and gamblers, Blowout is mostly NOT representative of the hobby. The hobby moves past almost everyone at some point when they are no longer active, and in the long run, being a winner matters more and more to collectors who are going to shell out big bucks.

If I want a Trout auto I'll just wait 15 years, at which point some HOF release will come along and I'll get an /10 for $150.

I don't think this is true. Who are some of the biggest hobby darlings of the 90s? Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, even Barry Bonds. For every Derek Jeter who built a hobby legacy on championships, there is a Ken Griffey Jr. who didn't. The reality is, there are many things that go into a lasting legacy in the hobby, and championships are just one of many ways to do so. Interestingly, Griffey's career is very similar to Trout's. Both were the undisputed kings of a decade in the hobby, endearing their legend on a whole generation of collectors. Then they faded with injury down the stretch. Griffey stuff could be had cheap in the late 00s. Now that those who grew up collecting him in the 90s are older, his stuff is absolutely the most collectible of the 90s for every year except 96 (where the Jeter rookie year stuff reigns). I foresee a similar outcome for Trout. His stuff will dip as his career winds down, but once those who were kids in the 2010s grow up and get back into collecting, his stuff will rise to the top just like Griffey's did.

[JRX]

How many guys on the 90s blue jays are highly collected? They won back to back world series, that matters more than everything, right? Baseball isn't the nba and its not like qbs in the nfl. Hell outside of Jeter, none of the other players on those teams are what I would call "highly" collected.

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Griffey stuff could be had cheap in the late 00s. Now that those who grew up collecting him in the 90s are older, his stuff is absolutely the most collectible of the 90s for every year except 96 (where the Jeter rookie year stuff reigns). I foresee a similar outcome for Trout. His stuff will dip as his career winds down, but once those who were kids in the 2010s grow up and get back into collecting, his stuff will rise to the top just like Griffey's did.

I feel the same way 100%. The kids who idolized Trout from 2012-2019 are just starting to enter the workforce. Hell I was 21 when Trout made his debut and I only started buying cards again regularly this year. It'll take 15-20 years to payoff but US175 and the '09 BCA are incredible long term hold opportunities.

As soon as US175 Gold PSA 10s come down to the price of a yearly Roth IRA contribution, I'm buying. 2009 BCA will have to wait until I have a mortgage lol

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

Trout has a Sarduakar army of Jaylens and Coltons who are just starting to enter the workforce. He was a God to Little Leaguers from 2012-2019. US175 is still a fantastic long term hold, there's only 88k of those cards!!

I don’t know. I think with rising interest rates and housing expenses climbing the next generation will have less disposable income to spend on cards than our generation did. So I wouldn’t assume Trout prices stay high and/or climb if Gen Z is not as actively engaged in the card market as we are.

My nephew graduated college last Spring and got a solid enough job but is paying 8% interest on the car he bought to get to work and the prospects of affordable housing are kinda bleak.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I don't think this is true. Who are some of the biggest hobby darlings of the 90s? Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, even Barry Bonds. For every Derek Jeter who built a hobby legacy on championships, there is a Ken Griffey Jr. who didn't. The reality is, there are many things that go into a lasting legacy in the hobby, and championships are just one of many ways to do so. Interestingly, Griffey's career is very similar to Trout's. Both were the undisputed kings of a decade in the hobby, endearing their legend on a whole generation of collectors. Then they faded with injury down the stretch. Griffey stuff could be had cheap in the late 00s. Now that those who grew up collecting him in the 90s are older, his stuff is absolutely the most collectible of the 90s for every year except 96 (where the Jeter rookie year stuff reigns). I foresee a similar outcome for Trout. His stuff will dip as his career winds down, but once those who were kids in the 2010s grow up and get back into collecting, his stuff will rise to the top just like Griffey's did.

This absolutely will not happen for several key reasons -- I can guarantee it. Griffey and Trout are not caparable. Griffey, MLB and baseball cards were all popular with boys in general in the 90s. The modern game, its stars, and baseball cards are not popular like they were 30 years ago. Trout will not engender the nostalgia that Griffey has.

The game and the card market was also very different in the mid-to-late 90s. Griffey had a limited supply of auto cards during that time -- exclusive contract with Upper Deck -- and inserts were a focal point in the hobby. Open licensing allowed multiple manufacturers to produce unique and diverse cards. It's the total opposite now with Trout and the ultra modern market, with autos in very large supply and ugly and bland parallels dominating the market.

Trout's card prices already peaked during the bubble. Those prices will never be matched again, adjusted for inflation. Griffey's card prices had a resurgence during the bubble and peaked again. But it was driven by unprecedented factors that won't ever happen again.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

I feel the same way 100%. The kids who idolized Trout from 2012-2019 are just starting to enter the workforce. Hell I was 21 when Trout made his debut and I only started buying cards again regularly this year. It'll take 15-20 years to payoff but US175 and the '09 BCA are incredible long term hold opportunities.

As soon as US175 Gold PSA 10s come down to the price of a yearly Roth IRA contribution, I'm buying. 2009 BCA will have to wait until I have a mortgage lol

Lol Anyone treating Trout cards as a viable retirement investment is a dummy.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I don’t know. I think with rising interest rates and housing expenses climbing the next generation will have less disposable income to spend on cards than our generation did. So I wouldn’t assume Trout prices stay high and/or climb if Gen Z is not as actively engaged in the card market as we are.

My nephew graduated college last Spring and got a solid enough job but is paying 8% interest on the car he bought to get to work and the prospects of affordable housing are kinda bleak.

Millennials had to deal with the great recession -- gen z will have to deal with high costs of living. Everyone gets screwed.

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Lol Anyone treating Trout cards as a viable retirement investment is a dummy.

I wouldn't consider it an investment, at that price it would be less than a single percent of my current portfolio. More of a cool reward for staying financially disciplined in my 20s.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by JRX

Without a doubt. Same goes for Dominguez and probably many others.

I'd guess Dominguez has far fewer than Jones. Even in the past two years the number of parallels have just exploded.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Perhaps forgotten was the wrong word choice, of course he will not be forgotten. But there is also a big disconnect between collectors and the hobby. The hobby has moved to degenerates and gamblers, Blowout is mostly NOT representative of the hobby. The hobby moves past almost everyone at some point when they are no longer active, and in the long run, being a winner matters more and more to collectors who are going to shell out big bucks.

If I want a Trout auto I'll just wait 15 years, at which point some HOF release will come along and I'll get an /10 for $150.

You are talking as if Trout won't be remembered as one of the greatest players of the last 50 years. He will be regardless how the career finishes off. It's the Blowout baseball collector bubble, that aren't really fans of the sport but more collectibles, that doesn't understand that.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by atk825

I'd guess Dominguez has far fewer than Jones. Even in the past two years the number of parallels have just exploded.

I think between chrome, sapphire, and mega boxes it was around 2100 numbered autos

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Millennials had to deal with the great recession -- gen z will have to deal with high costs of living. Everyone gets screwed.

At least Trout is doing his part in keeping his cards affordable for the next generation by only playing half seasons the last half of his career. 😹

[theshowandme]

Off-season Trout hate starting early I see

Strap in folks, it could be a rough winter

[atk825]

Originally Posted by JRX

I think between chrome, sapphire, and mega boxes it was around 2100 numbered autos

There's 306 Mike Trout 2009 BCA in the PSA pop report. 24 of the 150 blue refractors. If you take that math across all the autos, plus just eyeballing the pack odds, it looks like roughly 2000 total Mike Trout autos?

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

At least Trout is doing his part in keeping his cards affordable for the next generation by only playing half seasons the last half of his career. 😹

my man is quiet quitting, he's like me fr fr

[anusinha]

Griffey was WAAAAYYYY more marketable a person than Trout was. Trout doesnt have that personality or pizzazz to be in the Griffey/Jeter class. Trout seems more in line with a Frank Thomas (or a Vlad Guerrero/Albert Pujols), great stats, never won a championship (until the was basically retired), and his hobby presence is basically dirt cheap aside from a few key cards.

[Cardsandcoffee]

Originally Posted by atk825

There's 306 Mike Trout 2009 BCA in the PSA pop report. 24 of the 150 blue refractors. If you take that math across all the autos, plus just eyeballing the pack odds, it looks like roughly 2000 total Mike Trout autos?

Yes I approximated roughly 2000 total ‘09 BCA Trout’s based off of pack odds with my previous statement.

The relative rarity of then vs. now is crazy.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Yes I approximated roughly 2000 total ‘09 BCA Trout’s based off of pack odds with my previous statement.

The relative rarity of then vs. now is crazy.

I can imagine prospects now get wrist injuries having to sign all that nonsense.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Cardsandcoffee

Yes I approximated roughly 2000 total ‘09 BCA Trout’s based off of pack odds with my previous statement.



The relative rarity of then vs. now is crazy.

If you figure topps was sending rough round numbers, 2k makes sense. Maybe 2500 max, but I think base at around 2x as many as refractor sort of makes sense.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

I get that Trout's contract eats up a fair amount of salary yet the Angel's continuously bring in other players with large salary's to help out. Also, Bryce has a nearly $30 million a year deal yet he makes the playoffs. Corey Seager makes $32 million a year and he's in the WS. Gerrit Cole makes $35 million and generally is in the playoffs. Trea Turner (teammate of Bryce) in the playoffs with his $30+ million a year contract. Carlos Correa is 30+ million a year yet he was in the playoffs as well too. In fact, just about everyone making $30+ million a year has had plenty of playoff experience...except Trout.

Problem is, Ohtani missed 1/6 of the season and Rendon barely played. I’ll guess at least a third of the salary misses that many games, the team will struggle.

A performer is only as valuable as the ability to perform.

[caflisch78]

Trout is signed for 7 more seasons folks, through age 39.

Strap in, there's plenty of road ahead.

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by caflisch78

Trout is signed for 7 more seasons folks, through age 39.

Strap in, there's plenty of road ahead.

As we saw with Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, those final 7 seasons generally do more harm than good. So get ready for the road ahead and the direction of his cards for the next 7 years.

Albert Pujols

pre 32 .328 BA .421 OB .617 Slug 1.037 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .313 OB .454 Slug .767 OPS

Miguel Cabrera

pre 32 .320 BA .397 OB .564 Slug .960 OPS
post 32 .272 BA .341 OB .416 Slug .758 OPS

others....

Alex Rodriguez

pre 32 .306 BA .389 OB .578 Slug .987 OPS
post 32 .263 BA .353 OB .469 Slug .822 OPS

Griffey

pre 32 .296 BA .379 OB .566 Slug .945 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .348 OB .477 Slug .825 OPS

Frank Thomas

pre 32 .321 BA .440 OB .579 Slug 1.018 OPS
post 32 .262 BA .376 OB .507 Slug .884 OPS

Mike Trout

pre 32 .301 BA .412 OB .582 Slug .994 OPS

**taking the averages of the 5 players listed you can can a proper estimate of what the remaining 7 years of Trout looks like.

Post 32 .249 BA .353 OB .466 Slug .815 OPS

***of note...

Age 31 .263 BA .367 OB .490 Slug .858 OPS (you can already see the fall off beginning)

I'd estimate that Trout has about 2500 AB's left in him if he plays the 7 years of his contract.

His final stats after his career is over should look something like this.

7902 AB - 166th all time
2245 hits - 173rd all time
421 doubles - 157th all time
62 triples - 498th all time
521 home runs - 20th all time
1277 RBIs - 94th all time
1334 walks - 39th all time
2169 k's - 6th all time
.284 BA - 530th all time
.387 OBA - 128th all time
.550 SA - 29th all time
.937 OBA - 36th all time