Everyone is talking about a market bubble...

[hermanotarjeta]

...so what exactly has to happen for the bubble to burst?

Seems like cards have already massively been accepted as a commodity - who is willing to take a significant loss in their investment?

Is it possible that cards truly never can go down in price as long as player performance sustains itself? And retired players can never really decline in performance - maybe it is true that cards can only get more expensive with time?

As long as people are only willing to sell their cards at a higher price, they should increase in value indefinitely.

[mindcycle]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1374741

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by mindcycle

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1374741

The card says moops

[vincecarder]

[zhiyuchen90]

I don't care if bubble bust, because I do not plan to sell anything next ten years. My collection make me happy.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by zhiyuchen90

I don't care if bubble bust, because I do not plan to sell anything next ten years. My collection make me happy.

My argument is that there is NO bubble currently, and that cards can and will continue to appreciate in value with time.

I'm just curious why people say that a bubble will burst? What factors can cause this supposed bubble to burst, because I don't see it.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

My argument is that there is NO bubble currently, and that cards can and will continue to appreciate in value with time.

I'm just curious why people say that a bubble will burst? What factors can cause this supposed bubble to burst, because I don't see it.

For the same reasons MJ Fleer 86 PSA 10s dropped by 50% just a few years ago.

This notion that recent flippers and speculators won't sell when their new purchases start showing losses couldn't be more wrong. You're saying that card-flippers in the face of losing money will act differently than all other speculators/investors in human history.

And it doesn't have to be 'one thing' that causes the bubble to burst and it may be something none of us can predict, like Covid just shut down the world economy which nobody forecast.

The tulip bubble burst, the gold/silver bubble of 79-80 burst, the Japanese RE bubble burst, the 1999-2000 tech bubble burst, the late 80s-early 90s Monet bubble burst, the Bitcoin bubble burst [down 75%+ at one point] the 80s-90s card bubble burst, and this bubble will burst.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

For the same reasons MJ Fleer 86 PSA 10s dropped by 50% just a few years ago.

This notion that recent flippers and speculators won't sell when their new purchases start showing losses couldn't be more wrong. You're saying that card-flippers in the face of losing money will act differently than all other speculators/investors in human history.

And it doesn't have to be 'one thing' that causes the bubble to burst and it may be something none of us can predict, like Covid just shut down the world economy which nobody forecast.

The tulip bubble burst, the gold/silver bubble of 79-80 burst, the Japanese RE bubble burst, the 1999-2000 tech bubble burst, the late 80s-early 90s Monet bubble burst, the Bitcoin bubble burst [down 75%+ at one point] the 80s-90s card bubble burst, and this bubble will burst.

That might be true if you are a card flipper, but that 50% drop in Jordan rookies would only manifest itself if you had sold at that time. Had you held on to it, heck, today you are up again. Over time, because sports are not going away and you have a consistent influx of new talent, put in the mix of the entertaining and gambling aspect of wax and a finite amount of product - and perhaps you see continued appreciation. I’m sure those monets have rebounded a bit since dropping.

Like you said, you need a massive amount of people selling at the same time for a bubble to burst, but there will always be a huge line of people willing to buy your jordan rookies no matter how bad the economy gets - or will there? I don’t see it.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

My argument is that there is NO bubble currently, and that cards can and will continue to appreciate in value with time.

I'm just curious why people say that a bubble will burst? What factors can cause this supposed bubble to burst, because I don't see it.

99% of cards depreciate in value over time so I’m not sure where you got this idea.

[Card Love]

Originally Posted by zhiyuchen90

I don't care if bubble bust, because I do not plan to sell anything next ten years. My collection make me happy.

This ^^^^^^^^^. It will only affect those who bought to resell when the high prices they paid will not go up higher or be sustainable in the long run causing the speculators and investors to sell at lower prices than what they paid because the money they invested with is money they need to operate their daily lives. Collectors will be fine in all this but those who paid 9k for 9(OC) Jordan as an investment is going to get possibly furked when there aren't many collectors buying at those prices.

[SirTommyWinAlot]

[drobfan8]

I don't think it will ever burst.

Other than Rookies each year that is.

Surely if you're holding an expensive card for investment purposes you just lose faith at some point and sell, you probably don't take a massive loss, but every buyer after that shares the loss.

If prices bottomed out, it would be just like shares where people that can afford to keep them do, and then buy more at low prices, and those that need to sell, sell.

I sold a bunch of stuff a few years back and I never should have.

I just don't see this Hobby ever bursting as there's too many people still loving it. Maybe Panini will not make so much in lean years and produce less product. But that is it.

Already gone through the GFC and now Covid.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

I don't think it will ever burst.

Other than Rookies each year that is.

Surely if you're holding an expensive card for investment purposes you just lose faith at some point and sell, you probably don't take a massive loss, but every buyer after that shares the loss.

If prices bottomed out, it would be just like shares where people that can afford to keep them do, and then buy more at low prices, and those that need to sell, sell.

I sold a bunch of stuff a few years back and I never should have.

I just don't see this Hobby ever bursting as there's too many people still loving it. Maybe Panini will not make so much in lean years and produce less product. But that is it.

Already gone through the GFC and now Covid.

I don't think the hobby has ever seen a generalized bubble burst and I don't see how it can happen. Holding on to your cards for decades, your cards can be resold at a higher price based on inflation alone.

I'm not sure I can think about anything to would trigger a massive sell-off. People who own valuable cards have tons of expendable income, very rarely do people feel forced to sell at a cheap price and there are always buyers out there that are in a better financial position to pick up your prizes.

So despite having essentially no intrinsic value, perhaps cards are commodities that can actually withstand the tests of time.

I'm not talking about specific prospects and younger volatile players either. I'm simply referring to the card hobby/market in general, and holding on to blue-chip cards long term may be a wise investment choice despite all the naysayers.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I don't think the hobby has ever seen a generalized bubble burst and I don't see how it can happen. Holding on to your cards for decades, your cards can be resold at a higher price based on inflation alone.

I'm not sure I can think about anything to would trigger a massive sell-off. People who own valuable cards have tons of expendable income, very rarely do people feel forced to sell at a cheap price and there are always buyers out there that are in a better financial position to pick up your prizes.

So despite having essentially no intrinsic value, perhaps cards are commodities that can actually withstand the tests of time.

I'm not talking about specific prospects and younger volatile players either. I'm simply referring to the card hobby/market in general, and holding on to blue-chip cards long term may be a wise investment choice despite all the naysayers.

And even then, you have the most hardcore of collectors in this Hobby that just collect for the passion.

I remember Slobbythegreat still. His Pippen stuff has not come out and he has EVERYTHING. He swears he'll die with that collection.

Plus people like money and cards generally retain some type of value.

You just have to look to the 80s and 90s graded stuff. Pippen PSA 10s and 9s selling for what?

Surely other guys on that level and above from the 90s will always be collectable.

Add in the Chinese market and damn.

People need not ever forget how much stamp collections and antiques sell for. Good lord I wouldn't pay a cent for that crap yet it sells for thousands

[Gem10collection]

Bubble bursting?!?!?! I think they use to say that about daVinci, van Gogh, and Picasso!

It's art bro. And as long as global GDP and the human population are expanding prices will go up.

[markinca]

there's always going to be a demand for the iconic cards and base rookies of stars...

But the days of lebron base prizm cards going for $50+? that bubble has to burst.

[The Finest]

It's just a wee bit of a gully.

[deemsterz33]

It's refreshing to see this thread

[liva]

Aren't we simply at a unique moment were collectors who were kids/teenagers at the golden age of basketball (only IMHO but let's say Dream Team and Jordan age) and of trading cards (multiple companies with great sets, many collectors, first rare inserts, first serial, first masterpieces, etc) are grown up with some cash to spend on cards they dreamt of but coudn't afford at the time?

I often wonder what will happen when that generation moves away from the hobby...

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by liva

Aren't we simply at a unique moment were collectors who were kids/teenagers at the golden age of basketball (only IMHO but let's say Dream Team and Jordan age) and of trading cards (multiple companies with great sets, many collectors, first rare inserts, first serial, first masterpieces, etc) are grown up with some cash to spend on cards they dreamt of but coudn't afford at the time?

I often wonder what will happen when that generation moves away from the hobby...

That certainly describes me. I was 13 in 1989 when everything took off. I used to spend hours in card shops just looking at things, with no money. I still have that first copy of Beckett Football with Bo Jackson on the cover that I got in '89....it's beat to hell and has great sentimental value.

Over the last couple of years I've simply been buying great iconic cards from the 80's and 90's I always wanted and could never afford: '86 Donruss Canseco, '84 Donruss Mattingly, '82 Topps Traded Cal Ripken, etc.

As far as your "generational" question - what happens when the Baby Boomers, who drive the 50's and 60's cards, all die out? No one will have the childhood connection with those cards. Will the market drop for those?

[blinkme323]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

That certainly describes me. I was 13 in 1989 when everything took off. I used to spend hours in card shops just looking at things, with no money. I still have that first copy of Beckett Football with Bo Jackson on the cover that I got in '89....it's beat to hell and has great sentimental value.

Over the last couple of years I've simply been buying great iconic cards from the 80's and 90's I always wanted and could never afford: '86 Donruss Canseco, '84 Donruss Mattingly, '82 Topps Traded Cal Ripken, etc.

As far as your "generational" question - what happens when the Baby Boomers, who drive the 50's and 60's cards, all die out? No one will have the childhood connection with those cards. Will the market drop for those?

Fair point, but I’m pretty sure that there aren’t many people alive today that watched Babe Ruth play and his cards are still pretty popular right?

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

Fair point, but I’m pretty sure that there aren’t many people alive today that watched Babe Ruth play and his cards are still pretty popular right?

The legends (like Mantle, Clemente, Koufax) will always have value, but what happens to all the intermediate stars and the generation of cards as a whole? I really don't know, time will tell.

I have the same question about 1960's muscle cars. They have huge value now, but what happens when all those men from that era are dead? Nostalgia drives markets - that nostalgia is gone forever when generations die out.

[DajuanWagner]

If TBP has "guaranteed" the bubble will burst, then that's enough for me....................to believe that the bubble won't burst.



#stopthebubbleburstnonsense

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by liva

Aren't we simply at a unique moment were collectors who were kids/teenagers at the golden age of basketball (only IMHO but let's say Dream Team and Jordan age) and of trading cards (multiple companies with great sets, many collectors, first rare inserts, first serial, first masterpieces, etc) are grown up with some cash to spend on cards they dreamt of but coudn't afford at the time?

I often wonder what will happen when that generation moves away from the hobby...

It's not just one factor, but this is part of it. There are so many factors contributing to the market right now... Zion being the most hyped basketball star since Lebron... Luka being the most hyped international star, maybe ever... Kobe passing (RIP)... nostalgia fueled by a perfectly-timed documentary on the most popular athlete ever... social media influencers fueling unprecedented new interest... lots of new money looking for new "investment" opportunities... unprecedented price-levels further validating the idea of cards as "investments"...

IMO, just because the market has grown at a rapid rate does not necessarily make it an unstable market that has to burst. For the market as a whole to "burst" there would have to be a gigantic sell-off, particularly at the top levels. I believe there are plenty of financially-insulated people at those levels, and the market is far too easily manipulated for them to let that happen. Even during the Covid stuff, we've seen isolated cases of the super-high-end being sold off, and there are plenty of others with money to burn looking to scoop up cards that rarely become available. Basically, as long as MJ rookie cards are hitting insane values, there will always be people looking for/gambling/"investing" in the next MJ/Trout/Brady.

Exciting time to be in the hobby

[YouTheManNick]

Originally Posted by liva

I often wonder what will happen when that generation moves away from the hobby...

If my seven year old nephew and his friends are any indication, their generation will happily take the mantle.