Who Will Be the #1 Prospect In 2023

[Yaga]

Never mind!

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

I mentioned this back in July, and will say it again now - Chourio does not have immense risk. That is crazy.

As those of us, like you, who've been doing this a while - we know everyone comes with some level of risk. But it's just inaccurate to say there is immense risk.

I don't know what to tell you if you don't think a 19 year old that's yet to hit above A+ isn't considered immense risk. Maybe your risk tolerance is significantly higher than mine.

So far the guy is a .150 hitter that's struck out in 37% of his AA at-bats, after not exactly lighting the world on fire in High A. He looks physically maxed out at 5'11.

Luis Matos looked like a high floor prospect at the same level, and he lost all feel to hit within a year.

If you are confident, go right ahead. But I wouldn't quantify any player under the age of 20 as anything except immense risk. Hell, Juan Soto's preternatural plate discipline is supposed to he the definition of low risk, and he seems to have fallen off a cliff at age 24. People were cherry picking Luis Matos stats two seasons ago in the same manner.

In recent memory alone, supposed high floor bat-to-ball guys Hiura and Kieboom have completely busted, and they were significantly more advanced with a greater track record of success than Chourio.

It wouldn't surprise me if Chourio shakes off an early slump and breaks into the middle of the big league order in 2024. But I'd venture that there's a significant bust risk that's only been amplified since fall 2022, if nothing else, based purely on his profile.

[ucLAkers]

Fernando Tatis Jr…..

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by ucLAkers

Fernando Tatis Jr…..

....has graduated from prospect status quite some time ago.

[Boredlawyer]

Ol No Risk Chourio is seeming a little more risky after 50 games.

[DadofTwins]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Ol No Risk Chourio is seeming a little more risky after 50 games.

3-4 2 2b, Hr 4 RBi tonight. Take out the one 0-21 stretch and the numbers are better than you think.

[sheetskout]

Originally Posted by DadofTwins

3-4 2 2b, Hr 4 RBi tonight. Take out the one 0-21 stretch and the numbers are better than you think.

Agreed. He's 19 at double-A. That he's doing this well is simply outstanding.

[BigSeph]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

So far the guy is a .150 hitter that's struck out in 37% of his AA at-bats, after not exactly lighting the world on fire in High A. He looks physically maxed out at 5'11.

Today that's .253 with a 23.6% K rate. It's almost like he's adjusting to the AA competition as a 19 year old.

Luis Matos looked like a high floor prospect at the same level, and he lost all feel to hit within a year.

Today Luis Matos is torching AAA so hard at age 21 he's about to get called up to SF.

If you are confident, go right ahead. But I wouldn't quantify any player under the age of 20 as anything except immense risk. Hell, Juan Soto's preternatural plate discipline is supposed to he the definition of low risk, and he seems to have fallen off a cliff at age 24. People were cherry picking Luis Matos stats two seasons ago in the same manner.

https://www.milb.com/player/luis-matos-682641

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Ol No Risk Chourio is seeming a little more risky after 50 games.

Hahaha, nice try, pal.

After he’s a consensus top 10 (basically top 5) prospect, you’re going to try and defend this? Lol.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

I don't know what to tell you if you don't think a 19 year old that's yet to hit above A+ isn't considered immense risk. Maybe your risk tolerance is significantly higher than mine.

So far the guy is a .150 hitter that's struck out in 37% of his AA at-bats, after not exactly lighting the world on fire in High A. He looks physically maxed out at 5'11.

Luis Matos looked like a high floor prospect at the same level, and he lost all feel to hit within a year.

If you are confident, go right ahead. But I wouldn't quantify any player under the age of 20 as anything except immense risk. Hell, Juan Soto's preternatural plate discipline is supposed to he the definition of low risk, and he seems to have fallen off a cliff at age 24. People were cherry picking Luis Matos stats two seasons ago in the same manner.

In recent memory alone, supposed high floor bat-to-ball guys Hiura and Kieboom have completely busted, and they were significantly more advanced with a greater track record of success than Chourio.

It wouldn't surprise me if Chourio shakes off an early slump and breaks into the middle of the big league order in 2024. But I'd venture that there's a significant bust risk that's only been amplified since fall 2022, if nothing else, based purely on his profile.

Missed this absolute gem when you posted it.

Calling kieboom and hiura significantly more advanced is truly laughable. Just a hilarious take. And shows your lack of knowledge here. Hiura was likely not enrolled in college at the age chourio was last season. And kieboom? Lol.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Hahaha, nice try, pal.

After he’s a consensus top 10 (basically top 5) prospect, you’re going to try and defend this? Lol.

Heck. At this point I'm still debating which Jackson is going to be #1 on my list.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Hahaha, nice try, pal.

After he’s a consensus top 10 (basically top 5) prospect, you’re going to try and defend this? Lol.

Yes, Matos has revived his prospect stock and really turned it around. Impressive to say the least.

Chourio is down like what, 50% since off season prices?

[Jaypers]

I've noticed that prospect cards spike the most when:

1) a Bowman product has just released and thus, the market has not been established. 9 times out of 10, the more hyped prospects will be severely overinflated for some time.
2) a prospect is in the middle of a sustained hot streak, and/or has been recently promoted.

Chourio not (yet) having the whirlwind season he had last year has made the fickle prospect buyers not spend as much as they did. Of course, the release of 2023 Bowman products has played a part in this as well, as this year's class has distracted buyers from his ceiling as a potential star.

[Boredlawyer]

10 month bump.

[awz50]

So we were all wrong

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

I mentioned this back in July, and will say it again now - Chourio does not have immense risk. That is crazy.

As those of us, like you, who've been doing this a while - we know everyone comes with some level of risk. But it's just inaccurate to say there is immense risk.

Here we are. Chourio autographs are at an all-time low (PSA 9 just sold for $151), and there's a high likelihood he's getting optioned to AAA in the next week. He's shown almost zero pop and has proven incapable of taking a walk in his (albeit, premature) MLB debut.

Statcast confirms this isn't merely getting unlucky. About the only thing he's not bottom quartile for in the MLB is swing speed and sprint speed. When he makes contact, his exit velocity is on par with J.P. Crawford and Nolan Schanuel.

An endeavor wherein your "investment"--in this case, a hypothetical PSA 9 autograph--has the potential to lose over half its value in two months, would be considered immensely risky, making Chourio immensely risky.

Don't be surprised if Chourio autographs are sub $100 by the off-season. Now he has to totally exceed sky-high expectations to stay afloat. Why would I pay $150 for a chrome autograph for a guy that's proven that he's not ready for MLB pitching?

This thread is a great analysis in prospectors totally underestimating the inherent risk of this sport. But go off, kings!

[KhalDrogo]

Another big prospect who struck out a lot and couldn’t take a walk in the minors. These teams need to allow these kids to spend more time in the minors to really figure it out. Throwing them to the wolves in the majors clearly isn’t working.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Another big prospect who struck out a lot and couldn’t take a walk in the minors. These teams need to allow these kids to spend more time in the minors to really figure it out. Throwing them to the wolves in the majors clearly isn’t working.

His K rate was under 20% at AA over 559PA. They probably should have made him repeat that at AAA, but thanks not striking out a lot. Unless you're giving more weight to his time in A ball which seems foolish.

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Here we are. Chourio autographs are at an all-time low (PSA 9 just sold for $151), and there's a high likelihood he's getting optioned to AAA in the next week. He's shown almost zero pop and has proven incapable of taking a walk in his (albeit, premature) MLB debut.

Statcast confirms this isn't merely getting unlucky. About the only thing he's not bottom quartile for in the MLB is swing speed and sprint speed. When he makes contact, his exit velocity is on par with J.P. Crawford and Nolan Schanuel.

An endeavor wherein your "investment"--in this case, a hypothetical PSA 9 autograph--has the potential to lose over half its value in two months, would be considered immensely risky, making Chourio immensely risky.

Don't be surprised if Chourio autographs are sub $100 by the off-season. Now he has to totally exceed sky-high expectations to stay afloat. Why would I pay $150 for a chrome autograph for a guy that's proven that he's not ready for MLB pitching?

This thread is a great analysis in prospectors totally underestimating the inherent risk of this sport. But go off, kings!

A great time to buy his cards.

It never ceases to amaze me how many on this board mistakenly think prospectors unload all of their cards right at - or shortly after - the player's first call up.

[21Pittsburgh58]

Isn't it always nice to come back into a thread for a nice 'told ya so' when there's a far better chance in the MLB to be average or below average at the beginning, middle and end of a career? Baseball is hard.

Congratulations, you are the MAN!

I'm not a Chourio guy simply because he's a Brewer and I own exactly one Chourio card (pack pulled). No need to use the old 'he's invested so he's mad' cliche.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by 21Pittsburgh58

Isn't it always nice to come back into a thread for a nice 'told ya so' when there's a far better chance in the MLB to be average or below average at the beginning, middle and end of a career? Baseball is hard.

Congratulations, you are the MAN!

I'm not a Chourio guy simply because he's a Brewer and I own exactly one Chourio card (pack pulled). No need to use the old 'he's invested so he's mad' cliche.

Baseball is the hardest. That's why even the seemingly most low risk players, I.e. Acuna, Soto, Trout etc, would be considered unbelevably high risk investments in any traditional market.

[Galileo77]

[QUOTE=Boredlawyer;19454839]Baseball is the hardest. That's why even the seemingly most low risk players, I.e. Acuna, Soto, Trout etc, would be considered unbelievably high risk investments in any traditional market.[/QUOT

There in lies the problem. although this is an unconfirmed, unproven statement i am to make-in basketball, in football, college performance i would guess correlates much higher than baseball performance at the same age with success at the highest level-for baseball the MLB
when trying to [predict future performance from 16 and 17 year olds from the Dominican Republic and other countries in South America even where academies exist and players get an incredible experience at a young age-and the High School and college players in the US at 19-20 with much less experience -it is so easy to fall on ones face (as i have multiple times in the past 10 years )because as said above baseball is such a mental game -you can measure exit velocity etc etc but what goes on inside the head of a 20 year old in the MLB is often a guessing game and often there is little patience by organizations to allow players to adjust to each level of Minor League Baseball- no one has been able to measure objectively the mental component of baseball and never will

[JRX]

[QUOTE=Galileo77;19455000]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Baseball is the hardest. That's why even the seemingly most low risk players, I.e. Acuna, Soto, Trout etc, would be considered unbelievably high risk investments in any traditional market.[/QUOT

There in lies the problem. although this is an unconfirmed, unproven statement i am to make-in basketball, in football, college performance i would guess correlates much higher than baseball performance at the same age with success at the highest level-for baseball the MLB
when trying to [predict future performance from 16 and 17 year olds from the Dominican Republic and other countries in South America even where academies exist and players get an incredible experience at a young age-and the High School and college players in the US at 19-20 with much less experience -it is so easy to fall on ones face (as i have multiple times in the past 10 years )because as said above baseball is such a mental game -you can measure exit velocity etc etc but what goes on inside the head of a 20 year old in the MLB is often a guessing game and often there is little patience by organizations to allow players to adjust to each level of Minor League Baseball- no one has been able to measure objectively the mental component of baseball and never will

How much does the use of metal bats in college and hs affect projections? Lots of guys put up video game numbers in college, but that's not a reflection of their true talent. We don't really see that in college football or basketball. I think baseball is the only one where there's a pretty big difference in the equipment used.

[UMich92]

[QUOTE=Galileo77;19455000]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Baseball is the hardest. That's why even the seemingly most low risk players, I.e. Acuna, Soto, Trout etc, would be considered unbelievably high risk investments in any traditional market.[/QUOT

There in lies the problem. although this is an unconfirmed, unproven statement i am to make-in basketball, in football, college performance i would guess correlates much higher than baseball performance at the same age with success at the highest level-for baseball the MLB
when trying to [predict future performance from 16 and 17 year olds from the Dominican Republic and other countries in South America even where academies exist and players get an incredible experience at a young age-and the High School and college players in the US at 19-20 with much less experience -it is so easy to fall on ones face (as i have multiple times in the past 10 years )because as said above baseball is such a mental game -you can measure exit velocity etc etc but what goes on inside the head of a 20 year old in the MLB is often a guessing game and often there is little patience by organizations to allow players to adjust to each level of Minor League Baseball- no one has been able to measure objectively the mental component of baseball and never will

I think it's similar to 1st round QBs. Over the last few decades, the "bust/failure" rate is around 50%. I wonder how close this is to the prospects in the BA Top 10.

[Jaypers]

Looks as though Chourio reads these boards. Just went yard.