Rolling 2023 Bowman Chrome Autograph Checklist Thread

[bub838]

Originally Posted by njsportscardguy

Where do the Topps.com pre-sale orders ship from? As in,...which state? Seeing as the 13th falls on a Wednesday, will these ship next Monday, or is there any shot that they ship-out this Friday?

I've had them ship from both Florida and Ohio. Should be Monday but who knows if they have their stuff together.

[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

... A Bowman Chrome HTA choice box in 2017 was $105. It's $350 now. Inflation hasn't gone up that much in 6 years.

I bought a case of 2015 Bowman Chrome hobby for $600. I think it was 2 autos per box? If so, around $25 per auto chance.

[njsportscardguy]

Originally Posted by bub838

I've had them ship from both Florida and Ohio. Should be Monday but who knows if they have their stuff together.

Appreciate it!

[Grave252]

Salas base autos will come out the gate over $225. Orange's will be over 10K.

As always, if you are hunting singles, just wait 3 months when prices are half of what they are upon release.

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Salas base autos will come out the gate over $225. Orange's will be over 10K.

As always, if you are hunting singles, just wait 3 months when prices are half of what they are upon release.

I think you’re low by about $200


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[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

I think you’re low by about $200


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I think you both are low, the hype on him is Dominguez like, i expect $700 plus out the gate.

[Boredlawyer]

A lot of people are about to learn that catching development is nonlinear compared to other positions.

There's a very, very good reason that no catcher has ever broken $500 for a base chrome autograph.

But this time it's different, right?

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

A lot of people are about to learn that catching development is nonlinear compared to other positions.



There's a very, very good reason that no catcher has ever broken $500 for a base chrome autograph.



But this time it's different, right?

Preach

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[bub838]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

A lot of people are about to learn that catching development is nonlinear compared to other positions.

There's a very, very good reason that no catcher has ever broken $500 for a base chrome autograph.

But this time it's different, right?

Very good point. Unless he really starts cranking the ball and gets shifted to another position its completely possible he's in the minors until he's 25 and he has little to no hobby hype by then.

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

A lot of people are about to learn that catching development is nonlinear compared to other positions.

There's a very, very good reason that no catcher has ever broken $500 for a base chrome autograph.

But this time it's different, right?

Prospecting isn’t a rational exercise. Investing in cards is not a rational exercise.

When guys get hyped as generational, phenoms, unicorns, etc, it puts those usual thoughts (catcher, unproven at higher levels, etc) out of the window.


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[WSCards5]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

A lot of people are about to learn that catching development is nonlinear compared to other positions.

There's a very, very good reason that no catcher has ever broken $500 for a base chrome autograph.

But this time it's different, right?

Exactly why I dont buy catchers. None of them have ever held value. A lot of prospects don’t but catchers have played well in the majors and still can’t hold value.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

Oh, 100%. And Fanatics offering an equity share was genius. It ensured they got the exclusive license. Doesn't mean I like it, and doesn't mean I think that what they're doing is right. I personally hope somebody besides Panini goes after them for a violation of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act. MLB is excluded from that. Fanatics is not. When they also bought the printing companies, you'd think they would increase the quality? Take a look at what happened to Topps Chrome update last year, and you'll see, nope. Everything was off centered like it was back in the 80s. I get it they do a few gimmicky things like tacofractors with some reward, (hopefully not free tacos for a month). But overall, you're not getting anywhere near your money's worth in anything. Nothing worse than spending $350 for a 3 auto box out of chrome and getting 2 base pitcher autos and a third guy that will never make it to AA bc the auto checklist is so watered down. A Bowman Chrome HTA choice box in 2017 was $105. It's $350 now. Inflation hasn't gone up that much in 6 years.

Remember, you always have to see it from the breaker POV. $350/box is $4200 per case. Divide that by 30 and you have a $140 buy-in cost per degenerate gambler per random team per case.

In the degenerate’s mind, that’s $140 to be able to pull a $100k+ superfractor auto redemption - that’s a no-brainer from the gambler’s mind.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by WSCards5

Exactly why I dont buy catchers. None of them have ever held value. A lot of prospects don’t but catchers have played well in the majors and still can’t hold value.

Joe Mauer came out at $60 when 2002 bowman chrome was $60/box, he peaked at about $300.

Buster Posey came out at $30 when 2008 bowman draft was $65/box, he peaked at $400.

That’s not $500, but in today’s money, those cards passed $500 considering boxes are $350.

And people had the opportunity to make money.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Joe Mauer came out at $60 when 2002 bowman chrome was $60/box, he peaked at about $300.

Buster Posey came out at $30 when 2008 bowman draft was $65/box, he peaked at $400.

That’s not $500, but in today’s money, those cards passed $500 considering boxes are $350.

And people had the opportunity to make money.

Go for it!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Go for it!

I will try a few boxes if salas is live.

If he’s a redemption, forget about it.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by WSCards5

Exactly why I dont buy catchers. None of them have ever held value. A lot of prospects don’t but catchers have played well in the majors and still can’t hold value.

wild that people continue to hold onto the fallacy that only guys like Wander, Tatis, Vladdy, etc will produce 'hobby value'. The same thing always gets said in the basketball forums, where "big men don't hold value!" - they will scream it in fact, and then I made money on Giannis, then Porzingis, then Embiid, and Jokic. Eventually you stop listening. Hell I even made money on Gobert and Drummond. Not saying every talented C will make money, but everything is relative. Anyone who at some point is cheaper than their respective talent indicates is a good bet to increase in value at some point.

[VandyCards]

As a semi-test for the extent to which folks avoid catchers, I might take a look at the difference in relative prices for Salas and Basallo (the only other teenage Catcher on most T100 lists). Salas is gonna have otherworldly, generational hype around him. Basallo is more of a “normal” prospect.

What are we gonna guess Basallo comes out at? $75?


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[dbodbodbo]

If you want an indication of the Salas market, look at the price that his Onyx stuff. This will easily be a $700 base auto out of the gate. That said, no product cools like Bowman Chrome. I expect the typical 75% singles nose dive in less than a year. Stoked to rip my box though.

[WSCards5]

Originally Posted by daeve

wild that people continue to hold onto the fallacy that only guys like Wander, Tatis, Vladdy, etc will produce 'hobby value'. The same thing always gets said in the basketball forums, where "big men don't hold value!" - they will scream it in fact, and then I made money on Giannis, then Porzingis, then Embiid, and Jokic. Eventually you stop listening. Hell I even made money on Gobert and Drummond. Not saying every talented C will make money, but everything is relative. Anyone who at some point is cheaper than their respective talent indicates is a good bet to increase in value at some point.

Never said that you can’t make money. Said they don’t hold value. Very different things.

[Osfan81]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Remember, you always have to see it from the breaker POV. $350/box is $4200 per case. Divide that by 30 and you have a $140 buy-in cost per degenerate gambler per random team per case.

In the degenerate’s mind, that’s $140 to be able to pull a $100k+ superfractor auto redemption - that’s a no-brainer from the gambler’s mind.

Oh, 100% and, Fanatics is really going after that gambler's mind. It irritates the living daylights out of me that they don't say who the short printed guys are. But, that would hurt breakers if they do. But, this is all a result of Fanatics being shady and playing into that gambler's mindset of "this next hand will have my ace, then the next one, then the next one." Meanwhile, you spend $5k just to get $500 that will go down in 5 years to like $100, eh hmmmm...Kahlil Watson.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

Oh, 100% and, Fanatics is really going after that gambler's mind. It irritates the living daylights out of me that they don't say who the short printed guys are. But, that would hurt breakers if they do. But, this is all a result of Fanatics being shady and playing into that gambler's mindset of "this next hand will have my ace, then the next one, then the next one." Meanwhile, you spend $5k just to get $500 that will go down in 5 years to like $100, eh hmmmm...Kahlil Watson.

Look at all the “big names” from 2022 bowman chrome - vaquero, arias, Mejia, balcazar, etc, all a fraction of what they were pumped to be worth.

Watching those 2022 bowman chrome HTA breaks are horrendous today - maybe one card out of 5 cases that is actually worth more than the cost of a single box.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by WSCards5

Never said that you can’t make money. Said they don’t hold value. Very different things.

Eh but that can be said for the big majority of sports cards. Individual players are way more susceptible to that than popular sets. Though that's even tougher in baseball because it feels like Topps hasn't made a landmark popular/collectible set in a long time. Like something that is collectible because the set, not the 2-3 best players involved.

And I really thought Project2020 was going to be that, until they ran it into the ground, per usual.

[Prox3]

Probably a dumb question, but how do we know which players have 1st Bowman's in 2023 Chrome?

[arod305]

This feels like a blood bath… with that being said I’m in for a case or two lol.

I could be wrong, but didn’t topps or fanatics have cases for sell on their website the day of release for draft?

[RainCityShecks]

That hobby box up to 295 on BO


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