✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

About half of his cards going for 1K+ are going to Asian buyers already.

This makes so much as to answer why the stuff traditional baseball collectors like is lagging in price. I'd assume the Asian buyers that don't normally collect baseball and, just like the basketball money, are going to go for the autos/shiny chrome stuff.

The SSPs in PSA 9 are still only going for about $500. Based on the sale prices of other mid-high end stuff those should be at least 50-100% higher. The higher end paper parallels too are lagging, Indy Days and Blacks.

Those being weaker than expected confirms what I had suspected that most traditional baseball collectors at that price level still aren't all that interested in Ohtani over the other guys(Tatis, Acuna)

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

This makes so much as to answer why the stuff traditional baseball collectors like is lagging in price. I'd assume the Asian buyers that don't normally collect baseball and, just like the basketball money, are going to go for the autos/shiny chrome stuff.

The SSPs in PSA 9 are still only going for about $500. Based on the sale prices of other mid-high end stuff those should be at least 50-100% higher. The higher end paper parallels too are lagging, Indy Days and Blacks.

Those being weaker than expected confirms what I had suspected that most traditional baseball collectors at that price level still aren't all that interested in Ohtani over the other guys(Tatis, Acuna)

This is why I've pretty much sold all my base and many autos that aren't heritage or bowman. I've also put my money where my mouth is and bought back 3 heritage low autos (for higher, but not high enough prices).

It's funny how many stateside collectors will dump 5 figures into a Jasson Dominguez card, but are reluctant to invest in a guy presently rewriting the record books on a daily basis.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by BBases31

This makes so much as to answer why the stuff traditional baseball collectors like is lagging in price. I'd assume the Asian buyers that don't normally collect baseball and, just like the basketball money, are going to go for the autos/shiny chrome stuff.

The SSPs in PSA 9 are still only going for about $500. Based on the sale prices of other mid-high end stuff those should be at least 50-100% higher. The higher end paper parallels too are lagging, Indy Days and Blacks.

Those being weaker than expected confirms what I had suspected that most traditional baseball collectors at that price level still aren't all that interested in Ohtani over the other guys(Tatis, Acuna)

You would make a really terrible detective. You have your conclusion all set up, which is based on nothing more than your gut feeling, and every piece of information that comes in you mold and steer it to fit the narrative you've already convinced yourself of.

Don't stop believing.

Arthur

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

You would make a really terrible detective. You have your conclusion all set up, which is based on nothing more than your gut feeling, and every piece of information that comes in you mold and steer it to fit the narrative you've already convinced yourself of.

Does anyone know the print run on the Series 2 SSP?

[waxxius]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

This is why I've pretty much sold all my base and many autos that aren't heritage or bowman. I've also put my money where my mouth is and bought back 3 heritage low autos (for higher, but not high enough prices).

It's funny how many stateside collectors will dump 5 figures into a Jasson Dominguez card, but are reluctant to invest in a guy presently rewriting the record books on a daily basis.

I for one am thankful for this, otherwise I would have been priced out long ago.

[parkerj33]

Its called confirmation bias, and unfortunately we all suffer from it....just some more than others.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Does anyone know the print run on the Series 2 SSP?

~265

Another market inefficiency that this is going for about the same as the US1 SSPs

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

This is why I've pretty much sold all my base and many autos that aren't heritage or bowman. I've also put my money where my mouth is and bought back 3 heritage low autos (for higher, but not high enough prices).

It's funny how many stateside collectors will dump 5 figures into a Jasson Dominguez card, but are reluctant to invest in a guy presently rewriting the record books on a daily basis.

Age and durability as a pitcher are big factors. If he can throw 150 innings this year, people will get over both. But he's 3.5 years older than Acuna and 4.5 years older than Soto/Guerrero/Tatis, so there's less prospect of him having a 70 WAR decade than those guys, pitcher or no. Plus Ohtani is obviously a very good batter, but his OBP is always going to lag the truly top end batters, so he's dependent on the pitcher to be super elite. Watching Ohtani vs Guerreo for MVP this year will be a sight to see, though.

[BBases31]

Reds!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Age and durability as a pitcher are big factors. If he can throw 150 innings this year, people will get over both. But he's 3.5 years older than Acuna and 4.5 years older than Soto/Guerrero/Tatis, so there's less prospect of him having a 70 WAR decade than those guys, pitcher or no. Plus Ohtani is obviously a very good batter, but his OBP is always going to lag the truly top end batters, so he's dependent on the pitcher to be super elite. Watching Ohtani vs Guerreo for MVP this year will be a sight to see, though.

WAR is an important factor in evaluating a player, but it's not everything. If you're referring to HoF consideration, you need to take into context what Ohtani will accomplish when his resume is reviewed.

It's been mentioned many times, but he is currently taking a path that was written off as an impossibility for the modern game. It's almost common sense to say that Ohtani's WAR will be much heavier than a 60-70 WAR stat accumulator with largely a dozen+ 3-4 WAR seasons.

Age is a factor, but it's not like Ohtani came up to the majors at age 24 - he has been playing professionally since 18 years old in NPB. He won't get WAR credit for that but it will be considered as a factor - see Ichiro.

Ohtani isn't Nick Markakis. He doesn't need to play by the same WAR rules if he keeps smashing 100+ year old records and wills his team to win. It would be irresponsible and ignorant for MLB to not vote in a guy to the HoF if he changed the game and rewrote entire chapters of the sport's history - especially without cheating. Time will tell, but don't cookie cutter this guy.

[Trueblue]

I'll also say that if Ohtani came to the US at age 18, as he originally wished, I would presume that there is close to a zero chance that he becomes the player he is today.

The philosophy of player development is very different in the NPB and a majors club would have just drooled over his bat and forced him to be a corner outfielder with a +++ arm. Or a high end pitcher that can Micah Owings off the bench.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

WAR is an important factor in evaluating a player, but it's not everything. If you're referring to HoF consideration, you need to take into context what Ohtani will accomplish when his resume is reviewed.

It's been mentioned many times, but he is currently taking a path that was written off as an impossibility for the modern game. It's almost common sense to say that Ohtani's WAR will be much heavier than a 60-70 WAR stat accumulator with largely a dozen+ 3-4 WAR seasons.

Age is a factor, but it's not like Ohtani came up to the majors at age 24 - he has been playing professionally since 18 years old in NPB. He won't get WAR credit for that but it will be considered as a factor - see Ichiro.

Ohtani isn't Nick Markakis. He doesn't need to play by the same WAR rules if he keeps smashing 100+ year old records and wills his team to win. It would be irresponsible and ignorant for MLB to not vote in a guy to the HoF if he changed the game and rewrote entire chapters of the sport's history - especially without cheating. Time will tell, but don't cookie cutter this guy.

It's just a tougher route for him to be an inner ring style HOF player because he started in the US so late. He's not going to get to 500 HR most likely, his US accumulation totals won't be great. Because he played in Japan he doesn't necessarily need to do that, but it's a factor.

But the bigger factor, IMO, is that he already has already had TJ once. He has a total of 100 career IP. Now I don't expect, nor is it necessary, for him to be some 200 inning a year innings eater. But I have, and I suspect many others have, some concerns about how long he'll be able to pitch and whether injuries from one side will impact performance on the other. It's only going to get harder as he gets older. But don't get me wrong - his hobby value certainly has mega upside if he can sustain it.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Yeah, I don't see a scenario where I would sell it this season. Just think that my personal "I've got to sell this" price is going to arrive faster than I previously imagined.

I think people forget about the Asian market. If Ohtani is in position to either win the MVP or lead the majors in WAR he will easily roll past Acuna and Soto as the highest priced 2018 RC.

Arthur

I actually agree with this. Why I bought some nice color a few weeks ago and am still trying to buy lower numbered color whenever I can.

[ScooterD]

MVP voters will face an unprecedented task this year if Ohtani’s pitching and batting numbers both stay strong.

If I were the AL all-star coach, I would let Ohtani pitch the first inning and play him in the field or DH later in the game

[BigL7370]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I'd assume the Asian buyers that don't normally collect baseball and, just like the basketball money, are going to go for the autos/shiny chrome stuff.

I don't think Ohtani really quite register among the Asian buyers that focus on basketball.

However, it's the Japanese that see him as a megastar, like how baseball guys see Mike Trout, except Ohtani is not only a pro athlete in Japan but a celebrity.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Reds!

Awesome!!!!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by tyrith

It's just a tougher route for him to be an inner ring style HOF player because he started in the US so late. He's not going to get to 500 HR most likely, his US accumulation totals won't be great. Because he played in Japan he doesn't necessarily need to do that, but it's a factor.

But the bigger factor, IMO, is that he already has already had TJ once. He has a total of 100 career IP. Now I don't expect, nor is it necessary, for him to be some 200 inning a year innings eater. But I have, and I suspect many others have, some concerns about how long he'll be able to pitch and whether injuries from one side will impact performance on the other. It's only going to get harder as he gets older. But don't get me wrong - his hobby value certainly has mega upside if he can sustain it.

I think you're missing that he doesn't need to be a full time two way player till he's 40. If he even keeps up a two way role for 3-4 years and then choose one or the other or even does a closer/DH type of deal, that blows away all conventional expectations. Even Babe Ruth couldn't do it for more than 2-3 years.

As for "a tougher route" comment, which route are you referring to? (yes, it's a rhetorical question).

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BigL7370

I don't think Ohtani really quite register among the Asian buyers that focus on basketball.

However, it's the Japanese that see him as a megastar, like how baseball guys see Mike Trout, except Ohtani is not only a pro athlete in Japan but a celebrity.

There aren't that many Japanese people buying high end cards from my sample size of a few dozen 1K+ sales. It's all Korean/Taiwanese folks.

The thing about Japanese people is that if an Ichiro or Ohtani shines and represents their country, the first reaction is not to go out and "invest" in autograph RCs. They consider these guys the pride of their country and feeling that pride is good enough for 99% of people. Every morning, it's weather, current events, and Ohtani's batting/pitching line.

Card "investing" is a very American phenomenon.

[Rage]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

There aren't that many Japanese people buying high end cards from my sample size of a few dozen 1K+ sales. It's all Korean/Taiwanese folks.

The thing about Japanese people is that if an Ichiro or Ohtani shines and represents their country, the first reaction is not to go out and "invest" in autograph RCs. They consider these guys the pride of their country and feeling that pride is good enough for 99% of people. Every morning, it's weather, current events, and Ohtani's batting/pitching line.

Card "investing" is a very American thing to do.

My mom is from Japan and every day/night on the news is the highlights from Ohtani, and Darvish if he pitched. She follows them on the daily but owns 0 cards.

Pride of their country is right on point.

Ohtani is the most popular athlete by far in Japan, even becoming a celebrity/model a la David Beckham.

Will be interesting to see how much his popularity in the states goes up after his ASG/HRD showcase...

[dfd]

[QUOTE=BigL7370;17413843]I don't think Ohtani really quite register among the Asian buyers that focus on basketball.

I've owned the 2017 Mega one of one Otani and five (5) 2017 Bowman orange mega Otanis. Sold them all. Not once did I receive an offer from Asia for any of those cards.

[hammertime]

It seems like people in Japan are selling Ohtani cards to Americans more than vice-versa right now.

[Trout Fan]

Originally Posted by hammertime

It seems like people in Japan are selling Ohtani cards to Americans more than vice-versa right now.

2018 Bowman Chrome Auto 9.5/ 10 auto just sold for 3,250.
The Ohtani market is hot.

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by Trout Fan

2018 Bowman Chrome Auto 9.5/ 10 auto just sold for 3,250.
The Ohtani market is hot.

WOW

[NYRE2PECT]

I need more money for Shohei - lost an auction that tonight that I wish I would not have lost. He's officially out of my reach.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

I need more money for Shohei - lost an auction that tonight that I wish I would not have lost. He's officially out of my reach.

As did I. Lost out on Gold Wave TC and Dynasty Patch Auto