2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[Jgil316]

The number of positives being shown is alarming........

Let's be honest here for a min - the virus was in the US in Dec 19 and simmering across the USA - hot spots cropping up all over the place but no one knew exactly what it was (the symptoms people have vary widely)

At the "start" of the pandemic - testing was nill to none - we get testing for acute patients and boom - they have it. Numbers are high with a high positivity rate.

Now - numbers are spiking again, we have more testing (thank god!) BUT what is about to come is a wave of hospitalizations in 10 or so days.

Viruses are not linear and the transition rate on this is foolish - along with a crazy 14 day cycle for symptoms.

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by cnewby

Loving all the lefties in here claiming victory! makes my heart pitter patter.

What victory is that you speak of?

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

What victory is that you speak of?

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I just can't see the path at this juncture. Covid won't be behind us and the democrats know the play is to push it for as long as possible and keep Joe in the basement like you said. It won't be hard to do those two things either.

I saw his path clearly in 2016 and picked him to the presidency in 2015.

Trump Bucks 2.0 just a few months too late...

[Jgil316]

Originally Posted by cnewby

Honestly - I do not believe anyone can take any victory lap at this time.

[techtre2003]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Here's my thing, all politics aside (Dem, Rep, Conservative, Liberal ect.) How can anyone listen to Trump speak and seriously think to themselves "this person should be leading the greatest country in the world"?? Im not the smartest person in the world but I expect the President to be WAYYYYY smarter than I am. I expect the President to speak with knowledge, intelligence with facts to back up his statements, thoughtfulness, class, and dignity to name a few. Frankly Trump does none of these things. How can anyone support a person for President that is 70+ years old and still makes up childish names for anyone that disagrees with him?? How can you support a President that is 4 years in and still blaming everything on the last guy?? Those are not American qualities that I can respect and get behind. Again this has zero to with actual politics or policy rather the human being.

Because he's going up against Joe Biden (and the Democrats in general). Just like the last election, I think the majority of people are going to be voting against someone rather than for someone. I'm much more excited to see who we get in 2024.

[patchgenie]

no more splash mountain. it's the princess and the frog in the future. at least people will have seen that one.

[k13]

Biden is -150 in odds if anyone is confident one way or the other.

Was +105 a few months ago.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by cnewby

Loving all the lefties in here claiming victory! makes my heart pitter patter.

Those righties too, amirite?

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Fear not, perhaps a letter from Comey is on the way!

(Hillary was an awful candidate, hated by many. Biden doesn't elicit that kind of emotion and negativity, so he's got a leg up).

Trump feels behind because he is behind. The Biden basement strategy is working and the country is clearly fatigued at all of the negative "stuff" over the last four months. If this continues through October, Trump is 100% toast but if you start to feel good about life again (you being the country as a whole), then he will win.

As we've seen, 4 months is an eternity. But I do believe current polling reflects reality.

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Those righties too, amirite?

You seem really confused, which is clear from your Heel method of .giffing

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by cnewby

You seem really confused, which is clear from your Heel method of .giffing

Was the pitter patter more of a:



If so, very confused. My B.

Carry on...

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Was the pitter patter more of a:



If so, very confused. My B.

Carry on...

Thats the one. Never change, and promise me you'll be here in November!

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by cnewby

Thats the one. Never change, and promise me you'll be here in November!

No promises

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No promises

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Here's my thing, all politics aside (Dem, Rep, Conservative, Liberal ect.) How can anyone listen to Trump speak and seriously think to themselves "this person should be leading the greatest country in the world"?? Im not the smartest person in the world but I expect the President to be WAYYYYY smarter than I am. I expect the President to speak with knowledge, intelligence with facts to back up his statements, thoughtfulness, class, and dignity to name a few. Frankly Trump does none of these things. How can anyone support a person for President that is 70+ years old and still makes up childish names for anyone that disagrees with him?? How can you support a President that is 4 years in and still blaming everything on the last guy?? Those are not American qualities that I can respect and get behind. Again this has zero to with actual politics or policy rather the human being.

Have you met many Americans? A good portion are just as stupid as he is.

[calculusdork]

I honestly can't believe anyone would put any faith in odds and polling numbers after what happened in 2016. Don't make me dig up the images of "disheveled Nate Silver".

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I honestly can't believe anyone would put any faith in odds and polling numbers after what happened in 2016. Don't make me dig up the images of "disheveled Nate Silver".

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

Have you met many Americans? A good portion are just stupid.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I honestly can't believe anyone would put any faith in odds and polling numbers after what happened in 2016. Don't make me dig up the images of "disheveled Nate Silver".

I'm surprised that YOU, of all people, wouldn't put faith in this type of stuff.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I honestly can't believe anyone would put any faith in odds and polling numbers after what happened in 2016. Don't make me dig up the images of "disheveled Nate Silver".

This is the one that I will always remember. November 5th; everything was laid out nice and neat for the University of Princeton.

Over 99% they said. Princeton. PRINCETON.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a7399671.html

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I'm surprised that YOU, of all people, wouldn't put faith in this type of stuff.

I put great faith in statistics and polling when it's truly representative of the population. We found out in 2016 that, somehow, someway ... it wasn't. Period.

So why should I? On Election Day, the morning of ... Five Thirty Eight gave Trump like a 25% chance. That was the highest they'd ever put him ... and they were the highest by far on or around Election Day (see Mike's Princeton link above).

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I put great faith in statistics and polling when it's truly representative of the population. We found out in 2016 that, somehow, someway ... it wasn't. Period.

Would you expect the same type of error to occur twice and at an even greater margin?

I wouldn’t.

Although predictive type stuff is never 100% accurate, it’s quite obvious to anybody involved in politics why polling is so important. Campaigns are literally built on the foundation of polling. There’s an obvious reason as to why that is. Accuracy.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Jgil316

Why do people believe so strongly in herd immunity?

Does anyone actually understand what that means?

Not really, TBH ... but this guy seems to (Michael Levitt, Nobel Laureate).

https://twitter.com/mlevitt_np2013?lang=en

https://twitter.com/gummibear737/sta...18332887392256

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Would you expect the same type of error to occur twice and at an even greater margin?

I wouldn’t.

Although predictive type stuff is never 100% accurate, it’s quite obvious to anybody involved in politics why polling is so important. Campaigns are literally built on the foundation of polling. There’s an obvious reason as to why that is. Accuracy.

I don't disagree ... but when polling across the board gets it completely wrong, it means that somehow the people being polled and the people showing up to vote are not the same group of people.

[hairysasquatch]

There is no more vile piece of crap in American politics than King Andrew of NY. Just absolutely disgusting to see his rank hypocrisy, sneering arrogance, and pettiness.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

I don't disagree ... but when polling across the board gets it completely wrong, it means that somehow the people being polled and the people showing up to vote are not the same group of people.

Fair enough.

I can guarantee you that Parscale is seeing all this polling information from this morning and reevaluating some aspects of the campaign.

Not directed at you, I just find it silly that anybody would scoff at the polls when the campaigns themselves do not.

We all saw UMBC beat Virginia. Not every "guarantee" happens every time, but it happens enough of the time time to pretty much call those 16 v 1 match-ups. If you're right 99% of the time, that's damn good.

[tpeichel34]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Here's my thing, all politics aside (Dem, Rep, Conservative, Liberal ect.) How can anyone listen to Trump speak and seriously think to themselves "this person should be leading the greatest country in the world"?? Im not the smartest person in the world but I expect the President to be WAYYYYY smarter than I am. I expect the President to speak with knowledge, intelligence with facts to back up his statements, thoughtfulness, class, and dignity to name a few. Frankly Trump does none of these things. How can anyone support a person for President that is 70+ years old and still makes up childish names for anyone that disagrees with him?? How can you support a President that is 4 years in and still blaming everything on the last guy?? Those are not American qualities that I can respect and get behind. Again this has zero to with actual politics or policy rather the human being.

1) Going into 2016, our political system was entirely corrupted
2) Globalists sold out America to enrich themselves

So the America First Agenda and "drain the swamp" resonated with a lot of people.

It came out yesterday that Obama/Biden directed the FBI to investigate Flynn, even though Comey told them there was nothing to the calls with Kislyak. The result is that Flynn has been gagged and cannot go public with what he knows was happening under the Obama Administration. This is after we learned that the FBI altered evidence presented to a secret court so they could continue spying on the Trump campaign and administration.

Biden is knee deep in the corruption of the Obama administration and possibly committed treason and you want that in the White House? That does not even take into consideration Biden's corrupt activities in Ukraine and China.

People like Trump because he is a fighter. He is going head to head with the corrupted DC elite, the propaganda spewing MSM, the globalists and neocons. You may not like that he hurts peoples' feelings and does not act like a traditional President, but I believe he is the President we need right now.