The Official Stock Market Thread

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

SPY

Preach!

[jcardstore]

China coming for casino operators. I think biggest loser here is going to be WYNN. I thought I remembered hearing 70% of rev comes from Macau

I actually like MLCO on this sell off, I think they're better insulated against the crackdowns and may come out ahead if they are granted a new license. Since they are China(HK) based.

I'm buying some WYNN puts today, I think there are still plenty of days of pain ahead. Going to wait for MLCO to bottom out and buy long calls

[finfangfan]

Palantir (PLTR) with the great day today to close over $28/sh. I’m doing really well with that one this year. It makes up for some of my stinkers.

Added some DMYI (IONQ), DMYQ (Planet labs), and NGCA (Virgin Orbit). DMYI actually briefly spiked today… might have some volatility heading into the 9/28 merger vote.

[NCtheBBcradle]

Heads up...Dow Futures down 300+ as of 11:55 PM ET

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NCtheBBcradle

Heads up...Dow Futures down 300+ as of 11:55 PM ET

Make that 550.

Bloodbath incoming

[jcardstore]

Could this be the correction people have been calling for all year? And not just an under the surface correction but a full market one.

[monkeymcgee]

Nah, just September things. I’m not concerned.


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[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by monkeymcgee

Nah, just September things. I’m not concerned.


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China doesn’t blow everything up every September. The evergrande situation is becoming critical and if they default there’s a lot of pain coming to financial markets around the globe.

[monkeymcgee]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

China doesn’t blow everything up every September. The evergrande situation is becoming critical and if they default there’s a lot of pain coming to financial markets around the globe.

FUD is in the air, creating buying opportunities. Seems like September to me.


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[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

China doesn’t blow everything up every September. The evergrande situation is becoming critical and if they default there’s a lot of pain coming to financial markets around the globe.

No chance.

Let people panic thinking Evergrande is more important than they are. Buy what you were going to buy on a discount.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No chance.

What, no chance China let’s them default?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

What, no chance China let’s them default?

No chance for global financial pain. Most of this issue is self contained to China.

The money that’s been parked will scoop the baby dip they’ve been wanting and we will move forward.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No chance for global financial pain. Most of this issue is self contained to China.

The money that’s been parked will scoop the baby dip they’ve been wanting and we will move forward.

Well see how much money is still parked. The move has been to buy every single dip but that has slowed considerably in the last month or so.

We’ll see. It’s either a good buying opportunity or in a couple weeks there will be a great buying opportunity.

Ultimately means little to me because my cost basis on my long term positions gives me plenty of cushion I can just buy more

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Well see how much money is still parked. The move has been to buy every single dip but that has slowed considerably in the last month or so.

We’ll see. It’s either a good buying opportunity or in a couple weeks there will be a great buying opportunity.

Ultimately means little to me because my cost basis on my long term positions gives me plenty of cushion I can just buy more

I'm dumb.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Well see how much money is still parked. The move has been to buy every single dip but that has slowed considerably in the last month or so.

We’ll see. It’s either a good buying opportunity or in a couple weeks there will be a great buying opportunity.

Ultimately means little to me because my cost basis on my long term positions gives me plenty of cushion I can just buy more

I think it may have slowed in the past month because big money took vacations before the school year and the market was hitting ATHs in August.

My point is Evergrande isn’t a black swan, because people have known about their debt situation and priced in the potential ramifications going back months.

[jcardstore]

ARCB

1) I think logistics is going to be a big winner this round of ER. They have all the pricing power and demand isn't going anywhere.

2) Solid financials and super undervalued in the trucking/logistics industry
- .45 PEG
- .48 Price to Sales
- Trading at 14x which is 8pts lower than industry.

3) Small dividend

4) Appears to be breaking out to test ATH

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No chance for global financial pain. Most of this issue is self contained to China.

The money that’s been parked will scoop the baby dip they’ve been wanting and we will move forward.

I wouldn’t say no chance. China has been building empty buildings and roads to nowhere for years. Even if it’s isolated to China it will have a global impact. Not meltdown levels though

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by rcmb3220

I wouldn’t say no chance. China has been building empty buildings and roads to nowhere for years. Even if it’s isolated to China it will have a global impact. Not meltdown levels though

Yeah I guess there’s always a chance of anything happening, I just don’t see Evergrande as this big deal. I think there are way more pressing issues to markets than the #2 Chinese real estate developer squandering monies. Especially when their risk has been a known in the market for a long time.

Originally Posted by rcmb3220

It’s going the wrong direction, Geech. I’d probably walk into the ocean if BCRX hadn’t cancelled out AUPH today.

In more important news, I hope you’re still holding our darling AUPH.

[babyfaceposey]

Have 90k sitting on the side lines currently. Waiting for 20% correction.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Yeah I guess there’s always a chance of anything happening, I just don’t see Evergrande as this big deal. I think there are way more pressing issues to markets than the #2 Chinese real estate developer squandering monies. Especially when their risk has been a known in the market for a long time.



In more important news, I hope you’re still holding our darling AUPH.

I think you are underselling the Evergrande liquidity issue. That's really all I want to toss out there. It won't be a 2009-type of meltdown, but the volatility will shake out a lot of weak hands.

[rcmb3220]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Yeah I guess there’s always a chance of anything happening, I just don’t see Evergrande as this big deal. I think there are way more pressing issues to markets than the #2 Chinese real estate developer squandering monies. Especially when their risk has been a known in the market for a long time.



In more important news, I hope you’re still holding our darling AUPH.

I am holding AUPH, thankfully


I think the bigger story is the Chinese government shutting down its billionaires. I’m all in favor of China destroying itself.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

I think you are underselling the Evergrande liquidity issue. That's really all I want to toss out there. It won't be a 2009-type of meltdown, but the volatility will shake out a lot of weak hands.

As I understand it and how I model it:

Evergrande is a known risk. I can find articles with people worried about Evergrande’s debt problem back to January of this year. I believe the default has been a forgone conclusion for months. China started running stress tests on their liquidity in early June and by the end of the month Chinese banks killed their credit. I have to believe quants have modeled the risk associated with their eventual default.

In the end, Evergrande’s default is roughly 1/2 the size of Lehman’s (non inflation adjusted) and maybe 2% of the reach at best. For contrast, Lehman was in the S&P 100.

I’d assume the vast majority of Evergrande is contained in China, and it’s likely that China softens the blow internally. China just dumped $14B into its markets last week.

I agree the volatility will shake week hands, but when VIX cools (and it will), SPY will continue its trajectory and the markets move forward.

Last time VIX went this high, SPY was at $405. We’re about $30 higher now, so what happens when VIX cools back down to even the 18 range? Hell, VIX is up 50% in the past month and SPY is down 3%.

At this rate we could go back to the VIX being at 60+ and we’d lose maybe 15%? I’ll just buy more, along with most everybody else. So much cash on the sideline waiting for that event.

Any meaningful swipe will likely occur in the crypto space I’d assume, not on the NYSE.

I could be reading everything wrong, I just believe their to be greater tail risks to the markets than a $300B default from Chinas 2nd largest real estate developer.

[Josh611]

China is just a wildcard. A computer or analysts can predict things all they want but there's no telling what will come from the whole situation. You can never predict human emotion. And we all know the market hates uncertainty. Any meaningful dip still a great buying opportunity IMO but wouldn't want to force anything.

China sucks. That place is a flipping mess.

[jcardstore]

A couple more undervalued names in a shipping/logistics space to go along with ARCB are:

ZIM:
~6B Market Cap
.96 price to sales
~3 PE vs industry average of ~9


AAWW:
.61 Price to sales
.48 PEG
4.7 PE
~2B Market Cap

both have positive ROE/ROA and good cash flows.

I love logistics for the next few months. Demand is crazy and supply is crunched so the shippers can basically name their price.

I also expect regional freight shippers and warehousing to be booming this holiday season

[carlo16]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

As I understand it and how I model it:

Evergrande is a known risk. I can find articles with people worried about Evergrande’s debt problem back to January of this year. I believe the default has been a forgone conclusion for months. China started running stress tests on their liquidity in early June and by the end of the month Chinese banks killed their credit. I have to believe quants have modeled the risk associated with their eventual default.

In the end, Evergrande’s default is roughly 1/2 the size of Lehman’s (non inflation adjusted) and maybe 2% of the reach at best. For contrast, Lehman was in the S&P 100.

I’d assume the vast majority of Evergrande is contained in China, and it’s likely that China softens the blow internally. China just dumped $14B into its markets last week.

I agree the volatility will shake week hands, but when VIX cools (and it will), SPY will continue its trajectory and the markets move forward.

Last time VIX went this high, SPY was at $405. We’re about $30 higher now, so what happens when VIX cools back down to even the 18 range? Hell, VIX is up 50% in the past month and SPY is down 3%.

At this rate we could go back to the VIX being at 60+ and we’d lose maybe 15%? I’ll just buy more, along with most everybody else. So much cash on the sideline waiting for that event.

Any meaningful swipe will likely occur in the crypto space I’d assume, not on the NYSE.

I could be reading everything wrong, I just believe their to be greater tail risks to the markets than a $300B default from Chinas 2nd largest real estate developer.

Some good points but I’d caution against downplaying this against a market priced to perfection that is at the point where it’s almost looking for a reason to stall. This plus news out of China always spooks the market because it brings into question much if their financial data as they aren’t the most forthcoming country when reporting. They are a huge economy and the market may have a hard time digesting that level of uncertainty.