5 boxes into a case of 2013 Gypsy Queen...BAT BARREL!

[DaBaddestHic]

Congrats OP, awesome case.

Unfortunately, we get to deal with this type of stuff until 2020 (I think that was the date), because Topps will have little motivation to fix it. I like this product and will probably get a box to help with the base set/inserts, but the collation problems really suck. Yes random should be random and these things COULD happen on their own, but if I was writing a game where there were 5 monsters chosen at random and only 2 were spawning, I'd suspect I'd done something wrong and fix it.

[ajscards101]

I don't see anywhere (correct me if I'm wrong) where Topps says that bat barrels will be evenly spread out throughout the product.

Congrats OP on the nice break.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by ajscards101

I don't see anywhere (correct me if I'm wrong) where Topps says that bat barrels will be evenly spread out throughout the product.

Congrats OP on the nice break.

They certainly don't ... but it is implied through the simple use of the word "odds".

[andrewwink]

id love a shot at that prince fielder, PM me if you have a price in mind

[Frankp2311]

Originally Posted by ajscards101

I don't see anywhere (correct me if I'm wrong) where Topps says that bat barrels will be evenly spread out throughout the product.

Congrats OP on the nice break.

This is true. Technically the odds only provide you information on the card ratio to packs produced. If it is 1:50,000 packs they technically can all be in the same box. I am guessing the odds don't say anything about bat barrel cards to case ratio. Stuff happens like this. Few years ago I got 3 rip cards in a case of Ginter while some people hit none in their cases. Congratulations OP, it's your lucky day!

[ckilgor5]

Congrats to OP on the break.

But how would this NOT be considered a QC error? Is there not like 20 bat barrels on the checklist? 4 of them into one case is pathetic. That's NOT random. That's some sort of error occurring and 4 of these bat barrels sitting next to each other during packaging. Yeah OP "beat the odds" that are stated on the back of the packs, but that's due to a clear slip-up at the Topps factory.

[XL5]

Congrats, that box was probably supposed to be backdoored. Somewhere some guy is sitting there, like, "WTF? I know there were 3 barrels in here..."

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Frankp2311

This is true. Technically the odds only provide you information on the card ratio to packs produced. If it is 1:50,000 packs they technically can all be in the same box. I am guessing the odds don't say anything about bat barrel cards to case ratio. Stuff happens like this. Few years ago I got 3 rip cards in a case of Ginter while some people hit none in their cases. Congratulations OP, it's your lucky day!

Not that it really matters I guess ... but the odds of getting 3 rip cards in one case of Ginter is probably like a thousand times greater than the odds of 3 bat barrels in one case on GQ.

[XL5]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Not that it really matters I guess ... but the odds of getting 3 rip cards in one case of Ginter is probably like a thousand times greater than the odds of 3 bat barrels in one case on GQ.

Yep, rip cards are 1 per case. So getting 3 in a case isn't that big a deal. Still probably a QC issue because that's two cases missing the Rip.

But bat barrels are I'm not sure what, anyone have the odds? I know retail is 1:134,910 for the GQ barrels. Let's be really conservative and say 1:100,000 for Hobby. So that's 1 in 416 cases.

A&G Rip - 1:1
GQ Bat Barrel - 1:416

It's probably even higher than 1:416.

[Frankp2311]

Originally Posted by XL5

Yep, rip cards are 1 per case. So getting 3 in a case isn't that big a deal. Still probably a QC issue because that's two cases missing the Rip.

But bat barrels are I'm not sure what, anyone have the odds? I know retail is 1:134,910 for the GQ barrels. Let's be really conservative and say 1:100,000 for Hobby. So that's 1 in 416 cases.

A&G Rip - 1:1
GQ Bat Barrel - 1:416

It's probably even higher than 1:416.

I think my post was misunderstood. My point was that pack odds are simply a ratio of the card to number of packs produced. It has nothing to do with how those packs are distributed throughout boxes and cases. The Ginter rip cards I believe were advertised as 1 per case so that makes it different. So even if a card is 1:100,000 packs, all could be hit in the same case and Topps would still be mathematically accurate with their odds assuming the number of packs produced is correct. The distribution of those packs would just be terrible as happened here.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Frankp2311

I think my post was misunderstood. My point was that pack odds are simply a ratio of the card to number of packs produced. It has nothing to do with how those packs are distributed throughout boxes and cases. The Ginter rip cards I believe were advertised as 1 per case so that makes it different. So even if a card is 1:100,000 packs, all could be hit in the same case and Topps would still be mathematically accurate with their odds assuming the number of packs produced is correct. The distribution of those packs would just be terrible as happened here.

Two things:

(1) There is a significant statistical difference here between 3 rip cards in a case of A&G vs 3 bat barrels in a case of GQ. When I say "significant", I mean one of them is possible and the other is ... well, not. So I disagree that the "distribution of those packs would just be terrible as happened here". Also, didn't A&G declare rip cards as case hits, and agree to replace them for breakers who didn't pull one in a case?

(2) You are right, Topps could stack all 20 bat barrels in a single box and their odds would, technically, still be correct. However, it is implied and understood by everyone that the word "odds" means "randomly distributed". Topps is a private company, so there are no rules here ... they can do whatever they want. However, GQ being a low-to-mid-level product, I doubt that as many people would purchase and break if they knew that all 20 bat barrels were going to be found, somewhere, in a single box.

[XL5]

Originally Posted by Frankp2311

I think my post was misunderstood. My point was that pack odds are simply a ratio of the card to number of packs produced. It has nothing to do with how those packs are distributed throughout boxes and cases. The Ginter rip cards I believe were advertised as 1 per case so that makes it different. So even if a card is 1:100,000 packs, all could be hit in the same case and Topps would still be mathematically accurate with their odds assuming the number of packs produced is correct. The distribution of those packs would just be terrible as happened here.

Yes, I understand that random is random and all 20 cards could end up in the same box, let alone case, in a truly random packout. But it's well understood and accepted that product type hits and 1-of-1s are typically distributed somewhat reasonably, not completely randomly. That's why we see 1:6 cards almost always 4 to a 24-pack box. There is usually some order to the pack out process. So it's not unreasonable to think that multiple product hits would at the very least be kept out of the same case.

I mean technically someone could actually complain to topps if they bought that inserts and hits seem drop at exactly the rate stated on the pack odds over a case or a couple of cases. That wouldn't happen in a truly random pack out. But we don't make an issue of it because it's expected. We know it's not a truly random process.



And an unrelated point, I think someone said earlier that countless customers got screwed by this. Really only two did because even if the barrels were in 3 different cases, only two other customers at most would have hit them, assuming one stayed in the OP's case.

[barry6124]

I think everyone is blowing this out of proportion.

[eaglescubs555]

Wow that is awesome. Congrats.

[slugger3469]

Awesome case OP! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

But if this doesnt further cement the argument that hobby direct is LOADED vs other distribution methods (BO, retail, etc), I dont know what will.

I broke 2 cases of 2012 Topps chrome from BO, best hit was a Jesus Montero red auto /25. Walked into my LCS & watched a guy go through a fresh case that the store got direct from Topps. Pulled 3 Harper autos, a superfractor and like 6 or so red refs. Hence my suspicions about Topps & hobby direct.

[dbroockerd]

Should we be glad that we are seeing this? At least we know true randomness is happening. Sure some people busted and got no bat barrel but I think that would be the case no matter what given the 2500 cases and 20 bat barrels. While I agree as a customer you'd hope to see a nice hit in every case, that wouldn't be random. I think more people by due to the fact they can kill the odds. I personally like the fact I can kill the odds. Sure I may lose on some too but that's the risk and we all know the risk. Knowing you can kill the odds makes it a funner gamble. Isn't that what gambling a all about. Not the small wins but the jackpot.

Just my two cents worth. I know many will disagree. Congrats to the OP!

[dd316]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

(2) You are right, Topps could stack all 20 bat barrels in a single box and their odds would, technically, still be correct. However, it is implied and understood by everyone that the word "odds" means "randomly distributed".

No matter how you slice it, it's always possible that this could happen. Highly unlikely? Yup, but still possible. You can take it any implied way, but when odds are stated, that's what they are. Unless there's a guaranteed of x amount of inserts to a box or case, you can't complain when this happens. Poor quality control would be if all the cards were damaged, or 50 of the same 1/1 card are packed out.

These were randomly distributed, and they randomly ended up in the same case. That's not poor QC, that's good luck to the person that bought that particular case.

Perhaps Topps created some unannounced "hot cases" and this was one of them?

[DaBaddestHic]

Originally Posted by dbroockerd

Should we be glad that we are seeing this? At least we know true randomness is happening. Sure some people busted and got no bat barrel but I think that would be the case no matter what given the 2500 cases and 20 bat barrels. While I agree as a customer you'd hope to see a nice hit in every case, that wouldn't be random. I think more people by due to the fact they can kill the odds. I personally like the fact I can kill the odds. Sure I may lose on some too but that's the risk and we all know the risk. Knowing you can kill the odds makes it a funner gamble. Isn't that what gambling a all about. Not the small wins but the jackpot.

Just my two cents worth. I know many will disagree. Congrats to the OP!

If someone is in the hobby purely because they like to gamble and opening cards is a way of doing that then yes, you're probably right. I don't think it's those type of people that are upset about this though; it's the people that are in it because they enjoy collecting and don't actually enjoy the gambling aspect of the hobby very much.

People opening boxes from a pure collector's standpoint I think would prefer knowing they're getting a case hit in each case opposed to knowing they can kill it every 5 cases (or whatever the number is). It's possible to have case hits distributed evenly and still have it be random; you just have different types of case hits. For example, in base Topps hobby cases, a case hit might be a manufactured card (not that great), or a relic/auto card (better). Yes I know there aren't really case hits in base Topps, but you know what I'm getting at.

Say I was told to pick a case out of two piles of 10 cases. I was told that one pile had a case hit in each case, and the other pile had two cases with 3 case hits, two with two hits, and 5 with none. I'd pick from the first pile because I'd rather spend my hard earned money on a guaranteed nice hit (on top of the other cards I'm getting that I'll enjoy) instead of risking getting no case hits at all.

Also, it's possible to kill cases without having to hit multiple case hits. You might get a case hit, some nice parallel of a hot player, and a 1/1 of some sort.

Also also, if you just want to gamble, that's what high end products are for. This is a more mid end product, and probably isn't something that pure gamblers are as attracted to.

[ckilgor5]

What a joke. Horrible QC. Great luck for OP, congrats to him, that's awesome. But what a joke of an argument and thread. Again, congrats to OP.

[XL5]

Originally Posted by dd316

No matter how you slice it, it's always possible that this could happen. Highly unlikely? Yup, but still possible. You can take it any implied way, but when odds are stated, that's what they are. Unless there's a guaranteed of x amount of inserts to a box or case, you can't complain when this happens. Poor quality control would be if all the cards were damaged, or 50 of the same 1/1 card are packed out.

These were randomly distributed, and they randomly ended up in the same case. That's not poor QC, that's good luck to the person that bought that particular case.

They are not randomly distributed though, that's the point. Open a few cases and you'll see. Hits and inserts tend to drop at their stated rates. Sets are collated. Sure there's variation and clumping, and everyone accepts that. But 15% of an entire run of 1/1s in a single case? That's a bit eyebrow raising.

[XL5]

Originally Posted by DaBaddestHic

Also also, if you just want to gamble, that's what high end products are for. This is a more mid end product, and probably isn't something that pure gamblers are as attracted to.

Maybe they should put out a product where all the hits are in one case and all the other cases are base only.

2014 Topps Baller Platinum Ultra Mojo Gambler Extreme.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by XL5

They are not randomly distributed though, that's the point. Open a few cases and you'll see. Hits and inserts tend to drop at their stated rates. Sets are collated. Sure there's variation and clumping, and everyone accepts that. But 15% of an entire run of 1/1s in a single case? That's a bit eyebrow raising.

Well then this is variation and clumping, why can't anyone accept it? Just because they're 1/1's?

Maybe if the next set Topps tells everyone exactly where the big hits are then everyone will be happy.


Let's think about this. I don't know how the Topps packing production line goes, but lets say the hits are inserted just as they say - the 50,000th pack gets one of these 1/1's inserted. So they're pretty spread out at that point. Then those packs get inserted randomly into boxes. Then those boxes get randomly inserted into cases. I can see how it's still possible this could potentially happen, where the "planets align" in a single case. Sure, the accumulated odds are astronomical, but not totally unbelievable.

[XL5]

Originally Posted by dd316

Well then this is variation and clumping, why can't anyone accept it? Just because they're 1/1's?

Maybe if the next set Topps tells everyone exactly where the big hits are then everyone will be happy.


Let's think about this. I don't know how the Topps packing production line goes, but lets say the hits are inserted just as they say - the 50,000th pack gets one of these 1/1's inserted. So they're pretty spread out at that point. Then those packs get inserted randomly into boxes. Then those boxes get randomly inserted into cases. I can see how it's still possible this could potentially happen, where the "planets align" in a single case. Sure, the accumulated odds are astronomical, but not totally unbelievable.

Yes, becasue they're 1/1. And I'm pretty sure the packout process doesn't go like that. At the very least, consider how they hold back product for replacements, etc.

[lrudometkin]

Originally Posted by jrodbrewcrew

Thank you, it does feel like hitting the lottery, but I agree, terrible collation. I just looked it up and there are 20 bat barrel cards in GQ this year...3 of which were in this case.

And 1 of which was found in a retail blaster ROFLROFL

[atilla]

Another reason for me to quit the card collecting hobby. Getting too expensive and the product is suspect, phony autos, etc. Will be selling off all my crap collected over 50 years. Well, it used to be fun.