Future of Giannis Antetokounmpo???

[zebrastar]

Originally Posted by PlagueisTheWise

Yes, and I'm still buying. I've shifted more towards on-card autos with his full signature as only about 3-4 releases (Gold Stanard, Timeless Treasures, Court Kings Next Day, and I'm blanking on any others) had his full name with an on-card signature.

Again, you are comparing Giannis to Rondo and Shawn Marion...we aren't talking apples to apples as far as players go here. Toss out values for KD, Lebron, Towns, AD, and Wiggins...that's the caliber of player I have always viewed Giannis as having the potential to become in both the game and hobby. Investing as you defined it is not luck. It's having a good eye, buying smart, and selling at the optimal time...which isn't yet for Giannis.

Good luck with your collecting goals, I'll let you know if I run across anything!

As for your ideal comparison, it doesn't fit for me because the argument I'm making is that there is a high potential for a major decline in value, so my examples given will not be of other currently hot players that haven't themselves yet lived up to future expectations. They're players that currently viewed as having POTENTIALS for superstar status. My examples are players had that potential and then lost it, and there are many more of them then there are the handful that reach that level.

Remember when Kevin Martin was considered a top 5 MVP candidate who was "not yet in his prime"

[PlagueisTheWise]

Originally Posted by zebrastar

Good luck with your collecting goals, I'll let you know if I run across anything!

As for your ideal comparison, it doesn't fit for me because the argument I'm making is that there is a high potential for a major decline in value, so my examples given will not be of other currently hot players that haven't themselves yet lived up to future expectations. They're players that currently viewed as having POTENTIALS for superstar status. My examples are players had that potential and then lost it, and there are many more of them then there are the handful that reach that level.

Remember when Kevin Martin was considered a top 5 MVP candidate who was "not yet in his prime"

I can't even take you seriously anymore. I realize that the basis of your argument is that there is a high potential in decline once a card reaches its pinnacle value. My point is, Giannis hasn't hit his pinnacle yet, nor have the value of his cards. You're throwing out a different, irrelevant, and inequitable comparison in each post. Also, it's only logical to compare a current player to other current players of the same caliber as we live in the present, rather than the past. That last point is the one you seem to be missing. You're giving multiple examples of players that just aren't a fair comparison to Giannis given his interesting and unique blend of current skills, potential, physical measureables, and wide collecting base.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by PlagueisTheWise

I can't even take you seriously anymore. I realize that the basis of your argument is that there is a high potential in decline once a card reaches its pinnacle value. My point is, Giannis hasn't hit his pinnacle yet, nor have the value of his cards. You're throwing out a different, irrelevant, and inequitable comparison in each post. Also, it's only logical to compare a current player to other current players of the same caliber as we live in the present, rather than the past. That last point is the one you seem to be missing. You're giving multiple examples of players that just aren't a fair comparison to Giannis given his interesting and unique blend of current skills, potential, physical measureables, and wide collecting base.

I'll give you a good example: Blake Griffin.

Perennial all-star, basically a 25/10 guy a night and one of the best PF's in the game when healthy. Yet his cards decreased in value after his rookie year after the all-star break despite his numbers consistently getting better year in and year out.

Basically, the window of value in the hobby is short unless you are a top 3 player in the league or meet any of the following criteria:

1) win an mvp honor (no, not a runner up)
2) win a championship or on a strong contender (a la Kawhi)

If neither are met, it's tough to see substantial rise in prices for players that are not already bargain bin material without any previous buzz. The hobby has a strange way of already factoring in potential and ceiling into prices, which is where many 'investors' meet their downfall.

Not saying Giannis won't be any of the above (well, I personally don't think he will, but my own opinion), but I think that's what the previous poster was getting at. Unless he suddenly blooms into a top tier franchise talent which translates into enormous team success, then the personal incremental stat improvements mean very little to nothing.

[chitownbears22]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I'll give you a good example: Blake Griffin.

Perennial all-star, basically a 25/10 guy a night and one of the best PF's in the game when healthy. Yet his cards decreased in value after his rookie year after the all-star break despite his numbers consistently getting better year in and year out.

Basically, the window of value in the hobby is short unless you are a top 3 player in the league or meet any of the following criteria:

1) win an mvp honor (no, not a runner up)
2) win a championship or on a strong contender (a la Kawhi)

If neither are met, it's tough to see substantial rise in prices for players that are not already bargain bin material without any previous buzz. The hobby has a strange way of already factoring in potential and ceiling into prices, which is where many 'investors' meet their downfall.

Not saying Giannis won't be any of the above (well, I personally don't think he will, but my own opinion), but I think that's what the previous poster was getting at. Unless he suddenly blooms into a top tier franchise talent which translates into enormous team success, then the personal incremental stat improvements mean very little to nothing.

Explain Lillard...PG13...Jimmy Butler...Harden...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930AZ using Tapatalk

[zebrastar]

Originally Posted by PlagueisTheWise

I can't even take you seriously anymore. I realize that the basis of your argument is that there is a high potential in decline once a card reaches its pinnacle value. My point is, Giannis hasn't hit his pinnacle yet, nor have the value of his cards. You're throwing out a different, irrelevant, and inequitable comparison in each post. Also, it's only logical to compare a current player to other current players of the same caliber as we live in the present, rather than the past. That last point is the one you seem to be missing. You're giving multiple examples of players that just aren't a fair comparison to Giannis given his interesting and unique blend of current skills, potential, physical measureables, and wide collecting base.

In simple terms. You can't say what a player CAN be and give an example of a bunch of other players that CAN be something but are not yet. You compare prospects to potential, your examples of ideal comparisons are comparing prospects to other prospects. Kris Bryant may someday be Giancarlo Stanton or Chris Davis.... not Kris Bryant may someday be Joc Pederson... they're peers, that's not a comparison.

[zebrastar]

Originally Posted by chitownbears22

Explain Lillard...PG13...Jimmy Butler...Harden...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930AZ using Tapatalk

Butler NT RC Auto- $450
Giannis NT RC Auto- $650
Lillard NT RC Auto- $880
PG13 NT RC Auto- $970
James Harden NT RC Auto- $950

Yeah, looking at this you can definitely see that there is room for growth.... if he meets his potential. Will he? There are lots of others that were hyped and fell short. Anyone remember what Rondo Exquisite's went for when he was hyped?

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by chitownbears22

Explain Lillard...PG13...Jimmy Butler...Harden...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930AZ using Tapatalk

Am I missing something with Lillard? I fondly recall his immaculate RPA's selling for more than they currently sell for back after his rookie year. I also recall his Leaf autos selling for ungodly amounts back before he became an all-star.


PG13 fits perfectly into my scenario. His price explosion really happened when he got into the top 3 discussion with his 2-way play while leading his team to the conference finals. Unfortunately both times he ran into the Lebron lead Heat.

Butler also had his rise as one of the best 2 way players in the game before his injury. But that's apples to oranges. He plays for Chicago. Their enormous hobby fanbase pays unreasonable prices for any glimpse of a franchise star or the next 23. Same reason why they were dropping 5k for a Ben Gordon exquisite back in the day.

Harden's prices spiked sharply his first year with Houston, as he inevitably became the top scoring option every knew he was going to be. I recall this fondly because I watched the prices on his NT RPA's the first week of the regular season. They exploded multiple-fold that week then everything pulled back drastically as the hype died and people realized they already knew what he was back in OKC.

[yiguiri2002]

I feel like people are arguing about things when they are saying the same.

There is a point in time in hobby that a player becomes overpriced. I'm not saying it stays that way, but there is always a period when a player's prices are higher than they should be. That happens whether you're a superstar, an emerging All-Star or a prospect. There are very few exceptions to this but it's the general rule.

What a lot of people don't see is that Giannis current prices are not that ridiculous. I like using Prizm as an example because I think that nowadays is the standard RC:

Klay - $12
AD - $12
Dame - $8
Kyrie - $6
Giannis - $6
Draymond - $5
Jimmy - $4

He's slightly overpriced right now but it's not that bad. People are using the examples of him other players being overpriced, but the fact is, it probably hasn't happened yet for Giannis. What some people are banking on is that, even after the boom and bust, Giannis prices are going to be higher than they are right now. Which it's not ridiculous at all if he continues his development.

[chitownbears22]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Am I missing something with Lillard? I fondly recall his immaculate RPA's selling for more than they currently sell for back after his rookie year. I also recall his Leaf autos selling for ungodly amounts back before he became an all-star.


PG13 fits perfectly into my scenario. His price explosion really happened when he got into the top 3 discussion with his 2-way play while leading his team to the conference finals. Unfortunately both times he ran into the Lebron lead Heat.

Butler also had his rise as one of the best 2 way players in the game before his injury. But that's apples to oranges. He plays for Chicago. Their enormous hobby fanbase pays unreasonable prices for any glimpse of a franchise star or the next 23. Same reason why they were dropping 5k for a Ben Gordon exquisite back in the day.

Harden's prices spiked sharply his first year with Houston, as he inevitably became the top scoring option every knew he was going to be. I recall this fondly because I watched the prices on his NT RPA's the first week of the regular season. They exploded multiple-fold that week then everything pulled back drastically as the hype died and people realized they already knew what he was back in OKC.

PG13's prices dropped when his ankle exploded, not because he lost in the playoffs. Lillards prices have been stable, he had an initial boom after his rookie year, and the prices leveled off, but have risen slightly since they leveled off. Jimmy Butler is still relatively cheap, and that is because Chicago has a terrible collecting fanbase for the most part (outside of Jordan and Rose).

Giannis has never had that boom like these guys, he is still undervalued. He has the right international exposure to blow up.

[zebrastar]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I feel like people are arguing about things when they are saying the same.

There is a point in time in hobby that a player becomes overpriced. I'm not saying it stays that way, but there is always a period when a player's prices are higher than they should be. That happens whether you're a superstar, an emerging All-Star or a prospect. There are very few exceptions to this but it's the general rule.

What a lot of people don't see is that Giannis current prices are not that ridiculous. I like using Prizm as an example because I think that nowadays is the standard RC:



He's slightly overpriced right now but it's not that bad. People are using the examples of him other players being overpriced, but the fact is, it probably hasn't happened yet for Giannis. What some people are banking on is that, even after the boom and bust, Giannis prices are going to be higher than they are right now. Which it's not ridiculous at all if he continues his development.

Very well said, at one time I remember these On a consistent basis

AD - $25+
Dame - $15+
Kyrie - $25+
Jimmy - $10+

They all had their moment, it wasn't long and it quickly dropped. Dray and Klay are currently in that moment. Kawhi recently had his moment, you couldn't find his prizm RC for less than $25 for about three weeks there. It's very possible to never get back to that price for him, even with some stellar play. If Giannis shows steady growth and makes it to the first or second round of the playoffs I can see his rise to about $15 before falling back to about the $8 range.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by chitownbears22

PG13's prices dropped when his ankle exploded, not because he lost in the playoffs. Lillards prices have been stable, he had an initial boom after his rookie year, and the prices leveled off, but have risen slightly since they leveled off. Jimmy Butler is still relatively cheap, and that is because Chicago has a terrible collecting fanbase for the most part (outside of Jordan and Rose).

Giannis has never had that boom like these guys, he is still undervalued. He has the right international exposure to blow up.

PG13's prices spiked sharply and declined well before his ankle explosion in the olympics. I believe it was around midway through the 2013 season (can't recall, could have been earlier) when his NT RPA's were fetching around 3k. Needless to say, this coincided fully with the media attention he was getting, and analysts all praising him for being the next big thing. Every other thread on here was about him (sound familiar?)

I disagree on Chicago having a terrible collecting fanbase. They just simply haven't had the talent or young starpower.

McBuckets and Mirotic both sold for unreasonable amounts (relatively speaking to other rc's of the same class with higher stock) before they even stepped foot on the floor. Chicago collectors are always hoping for that next guy to relive the nostalgia.

If Giannis wore a red jersey, I guarantee you his prices would not be at their current levels. Same reason why Tobias Harris rc's were dirt cheap even though he was showing promise. I think the real terrible basketball collecting fanbase would be in Buck land.

[zebrastar]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

PG13's prices spiked sharply and declined well before his ankle explosion in the olympics. I believe it was around midway through the 2013 season (can't recall, could have been earlier) when his NT RPA's were fetching around 3k. Needless to say, this coincided fully with the media attention he was getting, and analysts all praising him for being the next big thing. Every other thread on here was about him (sound familiar?)

I disagree on Chicago having a terrible collecting fanbase. They just simply haven't had the talent or young starpower.

McBuckets and Mirotic both sold for unreasonable amounts (relatively speaking to other rc's of the same class with higher stock) before they even stepped foot on the floor. Chicago collectors are always hoping for that next guy to relive the nostalgia.

If Giannis wore a red jersey, I guarantee you his prices would not be at their current levels. Same reason why Tobias Harris rc's were dirt cheap even though he was showing promise. I think the real terrible basketball collecting fanbase would be in Buck land.

But Europe just discovered basketberrrrl cards!

[ricefan77]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I feel like people are arguing about things when they are saying the same.

There is a point in time in hobby that a player becomes overpriced. I'm not saying it stays that way, but there is always a period when a player's prices are higher than they should be. That happens whether you're a superstar, an emerging All-Star or a prospect. There are very few exceptions to this but it's the general rule.

What a lot of people don't see is that Giannis current prices are not that ridiculous. I like using Prizm as an example because I think that nowadays is the standard RC:

Klay - $12
AD - $12
Dame - $8
Kyrie - $6
Giannis - $6
Draymond - $5
Jimmy - $4

He's slightly overpriced right now but it's not that bad. People are using the examples of him other players being overpriced, but the fact is, it probably hasn't happened yet for Giannis. What some people are banking on is that, even after the boom and bust, Giannis prices are going to be higher than they are right now. Which it's not ridiculous at all if he continues his development.

I have to go through my prizm cards, those are for base?

[Mongol]

Someone sell me a Giannis nt rpa
I'd be glad to pay top dollar.

[neil34]

Originally Posted by PlagueisTheWise

I'm sure you do disagree with me...considering I disagreed with your initial assessment that was understood. I've been buying him for two plus years now. Prices were far too low at the outset. People were bemoaning paying $600 for his NT RPA his rookie year and compared to Wiggins, Towns, Jabari, and other recent and hyped rookies that's pennies on the dollar. He wasn't "hyped" a quarter as much as a great number of guys, including but not limited to those I listed above. "Investing" isn't the right term for buying pieces of cardboard to me; however, for the sake of discussion, investing is all about risk versus potential payoff. The risk wasn't high on Giannis if you bought in early, which I did, and the payoff is proving to be substantial.

Hi Buddy, you made a very good point. Giannis is less one year older than Wiggins. And the impact to the team he brought in last 30 games are really something we are looking for as a Franchise Player. If you start collecting his rookie year high end from his rookie season. The price compare Wiggins and Towns almost make you feel likes they cheap as chips.In his Rookie season, His NT RPA are bwt 500-750 depend on patch. IMM RPA are 350-500, Imm Acetate was about 800. Compare what you can get now. It is really paid off already. I am hoping Giannis can play the ALL-Star this year and Maybe playoff. Personally, I don't understand the player trades from last pre-season, They gave away Dudley and ZAZA these kind of solid players, Dudley can shoot outside plays hard "D", ZaZa is a smart inside bigman who can pass and finish inside. Then Bucks Signed Greg and trade in MCW. One is non-athletic below average rebounder bigman shooter and the other is just a below everage "everthing can" player plus turnover monster. So If Bucks can pick a solid big man to play aside with Giannis in this year draft then Trade those two for some solid role players, We will see a good bright future. Also I am still have hope on Tyler Ennis and Damian Inglis to step up become the solid role player.

These are my Giannis collection. Also I have 6 More NT RPA include his Jersey number 34/99 not in this pics plus 2 more Imm RPA.

[Mongol]

Originally Posted by neil34

Hi Buddy, you made a very good point. Giannis is less one year older than Wiggins. And the impact to the team he brought in last 30 games are really something we are looking for as a Franchise Player. If you start collecting his rookie year high end from his rookie season. The price compare Wiggins and Towns almost make you feel likes they cheap as chips.In his Rookie season, His NT RPA are bwt 500-750 depend on patch. IMM RPA are 350-500, Imm Acetate was about 800. Compare what you can get now. It is really paid off already. I am hoping Giannis can play the ALL-Star this year and Maybe playoff. Personally, I don't understand the player trades from last pre-season, They gave away Dudley and ZAZA these kind of solid players, Dudley can shoot outside plays hard "D", ZaZa is a smart inside bigman who can pass and finish inside. Then Bucks Signed Greg and trade in MCW. One is non-athletic below average rebounder bigman shooter and the other is just a below everage "everthing can" player plus turnover monster. So If Bucks can pick a solid big man to play aside with Giannis in this year draft then Trade those two for some solid role players, We will see a good bright future. Also I am still have hope on Tyler Ennis and Damian Inglis to step up become the solid role player.

These are my Giannis collection. Also I have 6 More NT RPA include his Jersey number 34/99 not in this pics plus 2 more Imm RPA.

Nice collection
Lmk if you ever wanna move some NT Rpa.
I only need one

[neil34]

Originally Posted by Mongol

Nice collection
Lmk if you ever wanna move some NT Rpa.
I only need one

I will when i am ready buddy

[PlagueisTheWise]

Originally Posted by zebrastar

In simple terms. You can't say what a player CAN be and give an example of a bunch of other players that CAN be something but are not yet. You compare prospects to potential, your examples of ideal comparisons are comparing prospects to other prospects. Kris Bryant may someday be Giancarlo Stanton or Chris Davis.... not Kris Bryant may someday be Joc Pederson... they're peers, that's not a comparison.

I'm comparing him to young players that have been "hyped" (Towns, Wiggins, AD) to show the spectrum of values paid for Giannis' contemporaries. I'm comparing him to Towns/Wiggins/AD to show he is currently still underpriced relative to other young stars, not claiming he will someday become them. That's asinine. While I'm using Lebron/KD as exemplars of a more accurate comparison from a strictly physical standpoint and possible hobby pinnacle. Try to keep up.

[PlagueisTheWise]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I'll give you a good example: Blake Griffin.

Perennial all-star, basically a 25/10 guy a night and one of the best PF's in the game when healthy. Yet his cards decreased in value after his rookie year after the all-star break despite his numbers consistently getting better year in and year out.

Basically, the window of value in the hobby is short unless you are a top 3 player in the league or meet any of the following criteria:

1) win an mvp honor (no, not a runner up)
2) win a championship or on a strong contender (a la Kawhi)

If neither are met, it's tough to see substantial rise in prices for players that are not already bargain bin material without any previous buzz. The hobby has a strange way of already factoring in potential and ceiling into prices, which is where many 'investors' meet their downfall.

Not saying Giannis won't be any of the above (well, I personally don't think he will, but my own opinion), but I think that's what the previous poster was getting at. Unless he suddenly blooms into a top tier franchise talent which translates into enormous team success, then the personal incremental stat improvements mean very little to nothing.

Blake's a decent comparison from a physical standpoint, but he came into the league with considerably more hype than Giannis being a #1 pick and all. You referenced this in the second to last paragraph of your post. Blake's prices were 3x-4x higher out of the gate on his high-end rookies. No upside at those prices. Plenty of upside for Giannis at $600 for an NT RPA if bought during his rookie year. I'm one of the group who believes he is certainly a franchise talent and possibly a transcendent one though, so I suspect that's where our difference in opinion comes from.

[thenwhatjk]

Originally Posted by zebrastar

Butler NT RC Auto- $450
Giannis NT RC Auto- $650
Lillard NT RC Auto- $880
PG13 NT RC Auto- $970
James Harden NT RC Auto- $950

Yeah, looking at this you can definitely see that there is room for growth.... if he meets his potential. Will he? There are lots of others that were hyped and fell short. Anyone remember what Rondo Exquisite's went for when he was hyped?

I paid more than that for my giannis NT summer of 2015, so they've gone down? That sucks

[neil34]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

I paid more than that for my giannis NT summer of 2015, so they've gone down? That sucks

that Price was his rookie year price. If you know anyone sell his NT RPA for this price i will buy without thinking.

[thenwhatjk]

Originally Posted by neil34

that Price was his rookie year price. If you know anyone sell his NT RPA for this price i will buy without thinking.

No I think he's saying that's what current prices are, but he's got to be wrong. Butler was nowhere near 450 as a rookie and I bought a harden his rookie year for like 65

What is the going rate for a nice patch giannis NT these days? I can't remember the last time one sold. I think that damaged one that's been sitting on eBay forever hurts the market for that card

[neil34]

Originally Posted by thenwhatjk

No I think he's saying that's what current prices are, but he's got to be wrong. Butler was nowhere near 450 as a rookie and I bought a harden his rookie year for like 65

What is the going rate for a nice patch giannis NT these days? I can't remember the last time one sold. I think that damaged one that's been sitting on eBay forever hurts the market for that card

There are only 2 NT RPA on ebay right now. one is 2 colour name patch. and the other one has smudged auto. which has been sold and come back for hundred times.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by PlagueisTheWise

Blake's a decent comparison from a physical standpoint, but he came into the league with considerably more hype than Giannis being a #1 pick and all. You referenced this in the second to last paragraph of your post. Blake's prices were 3x-4x higher out of the gate on his high-end rookies. No upside at those prices. Plenty of upside for Giannis at $600 for an NT RPA if bought during his rookie year. I'm one of the group who believes he is certainly a franchise talent and possibly a transcendent one though, so I suspect that's where our difference in opinion comes from.

Actually, Griffin's NT RPA's could be had all day for right around 1k or slightly lower for a nice patch his rookie year. That's quite low for a number 1 overall pick, especially when you compare him to former #1's. How do I know this? Because I bought around 5 of them. It was around a month or two into the year where they essentially doubled in price, then by all star break they had sweltered to around 3-4k for a nice example /99, and even more for a /25. Then the prices pulled back and never recovered.

Blake had a bit of hype, but I don't think anyone projected him to be the type of player he was today. Additionally, he missed his entire rookie year due to injury, so health concerns were factored in.

But my entire point is that the hobby is irrational. They already price factored a perennial all star career mid way through his first year in the league, and when he suddenly blossomed into that, the market pulled back.

The hobby has an ADD riddled attention span where it's always onto the next shiny thing. Long term it wants mvps and championships. Anything short of that and you're playing a volatile stock market where prices can crash at any given instant, without logic.

[thenwhatjk]

^no, blakes were closer to 500 than 1000 when he was an injured rookie. And there was no precedent for what a #1 pick injured or not NT should go for