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Old 10-23-2013, 12:28 PM   #276
RFulch40
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Originally Posted by ctbinvestments View Post
Fact remains with this checklist I don't see where busting cases would be profitable unless you got an extremely lucky hit. I don't believe in "this draft is better than this draft" because I'll be buying singles of players I think will be good regardless of what number they were drafted. Not sure how much cases are running now a days but I'd much rather buy however many singles of Dom Smith I can get for the same price. Sure I'll miss out on the "homerun" chance but the chances of losing money will be alot less also.
Thats not every product?
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:31 PM   #277
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CTB and I are on the same page. Ive never busted cases and never will. Why risk a few grand on what ifs when I can buy sure things as singles. I may buy a few boxes but certainly not a case.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:32 PM   #278
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Thats not every product?
He means that there arent as many top end guys as before so the lucky hits are much fewer and far between so youre basically banking on hitting the top guy or garbage essentially meaning youre almost a sure thing to lose out
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:44 PM   #279
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He means that there arent as many top end guys as before so the lucky hits are much fewer and far between so youre basically banking on hitting the top guy or garbage essentially meaning youre almost a sure thing to lose out
2012 draft highest sellers after release:

Almora-35
Russell-35
Zunino-40

2013 will have:
Meadows and Frazier over 50 and smith over atleast 40 to me.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:50 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by metsplaya123 View Post
2012 draft highest sellers after release:

Almora-35
Russell-35
Zunino-40

2013 will have:
Meadows and Frazier over 50 and smith over atleast 40 to me.
David Dahl was expensive upon release as well. I am getting old, so I could be wrong but I seem to remember Zunino selling for more than $40 after release.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:53 PM   #281
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Originally Posted by metsplaya123 View Post
2012 draft highest sellers after release:

Almora-35
Russell-35
Zunino-40

2013 will have:
Meadows and Frazier over 50 and smith over atleast 40 to me.
those guys will sell yes since people always fine players to grab regardless of how week the checklist is. Personally im staying away from them all as I dont see much to be made from it.
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:57 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by DSizzle31 View Post
David Dahl was expensive upon release as well. I am getting old, so I could be wrong but I seem to remember Zunino selling for more than $40 after release.
I think they might have reached 45ish
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Old 10-23-2013, 12:59 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by hagausaf View Post
those guys will sell yes since people always fine players to grab regardless of how week the checklist is. Personally im staying away from them all as I dont see much to be made from it.
The point is if 2012 was so good then who else was selling well besides the top guys? Noone really. Wacha was cheap in the beginning. Could be the same thing with 2013.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:11 PM   #284
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As I've said before chrome checklist was release way late as well a week or two before
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:35 PM   #285
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Draft is and has always been a rip and hold product. Yeah there are always the guys that'll sell well from release, but there are so many OTHER guys that have huge potential but haven't had a chance to prove themselves yet. Why sell these players for $8 apiece when you can hold them and sell for $35 6 months down the road?

There's no draft product whose average case provided an instant profit for breakers. IMO it's always been a rip and hold for 80%+ of the cards you pull if you're wanting to maximize return.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:39 PM   #286
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Why sell these players for $8 apiece when you can hold them and sell for $35 6 months down the road?
Or 10 months down the road for $85

Thanks Wacha
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:41 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by rseve43 View Post
Draft is and has always been a rip and hold product. Yeah there are always the guys that'll sell well from release, but there are so many OTHER guys that have huge potential but haven't had a chance to prove themselves yet. Why sell these players for $8 apiece when you can hold them and sell for $35 6 months down the road?

There's no draft product whose average case provided an instant profit for breakers. IMO it's always been a rip and hold for 80%+ of the cards you pull if you're wanting to maximize return.
If every auto went up form 8 to 35, it would make sense. But they don't. It's a risk, just like everything else in this hobby.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:43 PM   #288
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Or 10 months down the road for $85

Thanks Wacha
Exactly what I'm talking about.


Don't buy a case if you have to recoup immediately....you may get lucky and pull a big card, but if that's what you're wanting to do you might as well go buy a lottery ticket instead. If your case break is average, you can still do well by holding to sell at the right times. If you sell everything from an average case immediately you're going to take a bath.

This product is going to be crammed full of 1st and 2nd round draft picks. Major League Baseball scouts obviously like these guys well enough to advise their organizations to pick them so early, but many are picked based on future potential because the organizations expect to give them some time to mature. The same must be done for these players' cards.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:45 PM   #289
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Draft is and has always been a rip and hold product
false statement, draft hasnt always been rip & hold. before 2010 the most money being made was selling immediately upon release. people were paying for overnight shipping to be the first to get their cases to rip & list. it wasnt just the autos but color & player lots. player lots were at one time the real big money maker before the over production. 1 day listings were the way to go & it didnt matter if they ended at 4pm or 4am, it was an absolute frenzy.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:47 PM   #290
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If every auto went up form 8 to 35, it would make sense. But they don't. It's a risk, just like everything else in this hobby.
Very true, breaking wax is probably the BIGGEST risk in the hobby.

I'm just saying that for those people who are trying to say this product is going to be no good because there won't be enough return...you have to consider the long term potential of many of these players rather than accepting current price on the immediate secondary market.
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Old 10-23-2013, 01:51 PM   #291
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For me, 2012 Draft was the be all end all in value. The print run was super low in comparison to other releases (previous and since) and there is value in so many things. Not to mention that seven different autos have touched $40 base value since release (Zunino / Almora / Russell / Seager / Gallo / Gausman / Wacha). Toss in 165 prospects which was the biggest class every and a very solid rookie class ...

I wish I had bought more than I did.
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:02 PM   #292
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2012 draft's auto checklist was pretty darn solid in my personal opinion. It was extremely deep, unlike 2013 Bowman and Bowman Chrome. You've got the top tier guys like Zunino, Wacha, Almora and Seager, but not many people talk about Heaney, Sims, Fried, Davis, Williams, Plawecki, Cecchini, Brinson, Zimmer, Blackburn, Taylor, etc. I'm pretty certain each one of those guys are only going up. Wish I had a list of buys that long for the last two Bowman releases.
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:11 PM   #293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metsplaya123 View Post
2012 draft highest sellers after release:

Almora-35
Russell-35
Zunino-40

2013 will have:
Meadows and Frazier over 50 and smith over atleast 40 to me.
You think Smith will be over $40?

Never really knew too much about him, but as a Mets fan, I kind of like it (the fact that he's good enough, not liking having to drop $40+ for a base of his lol).
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:29 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by centereacan06 View Post
You think Smith will be over $40?

Never really knew too much about him, but as a Mets fan, I kind of like it (the fact that he's good enough, not liking having to drop $40+ for a base of his lol).
Lets go over a few things:

1. He's a met
2. He's a top pick
3. He's considered by some as the best pure hitter in the whole draft


I actually wouldn't be surprised to see him sell over 50
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Old 10-23-2013, 02:41 PM   #295
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Well obviousley Draft is a break and hold product considering it is released AFTER THE SEASON....huh? Obviousley prices are lowest in Nov-Jan and rise during spring training and the season as the draft class gets setrled and people are promoted.
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Old 10-23-2013, 03:34 PM   #296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctbinvestments View Post
Fact remains with this checklist I don't see where busting cases would be profitable unless you got an extremely lucky hit. I don't believe in "this draft is better than this draft" because I'll be buying singles of players I think will be good regardless of what number they were drafted. Not sure how much cases are running now a days but I'd much rather buy however many singles of Dom Smith I can get for the same price. Sure I'll miss out on the "homerun" chance but the chances of losing money will be alot less also.
You just summed up every sports product
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Old 10-23-2013, 05:10 PM   #297
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Reese McGuire officially added!

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Old 10-23-2013, 05:44 PM   #298
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damn you are fast j p i was just gonna posti t !
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Old 10-23-2013, 06:04 PM   #299
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How much do you think Reese base autos go for. He's from around my area
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Old 10-23-2013, 06:06 PM   #300
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Four Yankees that could be on here and help the product out ... wonder how many we'll see.
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