The Card Shop Theory....

[ryo1549]

So Vincesanity and I have talked about this before and after looking at breaks of finest, I am wondering if this is true.

The theory is that card shops get LOADED cases and boxes while the large online retailers get the lesser filled cases. Seems crazy, but check out some of the finest breaks.

We opened 10 cases total. Here is the breakdown of the hits:

AJ Jenkins SP 2
Russell Wilson SP 2
Doug Martin SP 3
Devier Posey 8
Joe Adams 8
Stephen Hill SP 3
Brock Osweiler SP 3
Ronnie Hillman 10
Nick Toon 7
Bernard Pierce 2
Kendall Wright SP 2
Chris Givens 9
Jarius Wright 13
Michael Egnew 12
Robert Turbin 6
T.Y Hilton 9
Mohamed Sanu SP 1
T.J Graham 7
Matt Schaub 1
Isaiah Pead 1
Rueben Randle 2
Dwayne Allen 7
Brian Quick SP 1
Michael Floyd SP 2
Nick Foles SP 3
David Wilson SP 1
Justin Blackmon SP 1
Ryan Broyles 10
Coby Fleener 8
Alshon Jeffery SP 3
Torrey Smith 1
Lamar Miller 1
LaMichael James SP 1

Mohamed Sanu Gold Atomic Auto /25
Triple Rams Auto GU /10
Doug Martin Red Atomic Auto /10
Colt McCoy Red Auto Jersey /25
Trent Richardson auto patch /10
Mark Ingram Auto jersey /10
Michael Floyd Auto patch /10
AJ Green Red Refractor Auto jersey /25
Justin Blackmon Finest Moments
Kendall Wright Gold Atomic Auto /25
Devier Posey Pulsar auto Patch /25
Brock Osweiler Finest Moments Auto

If you go look at any case breaks in which they purchased from a physical store, you can see that their break blows any of our 10 cases away.


Also if you look at the Exquisite breaks, most of them that came from the card shops were fantastic. It seemed as though each box anyone opened from a shop was able to make their money back. The ones now we are seeing from the online retailers seem to be AWFUL.

What do you think of this theory? Do you think this could be true?

[Qwasian]

I agree, I believe the ones that go to brick & mortar stores are called hobby direct, and the others are just called hobby, the hobby direct have better hits........ not sure it's like that with everything but I know of 2 or 3 releases I've seen that this was true......

everytime I buy something from my local cardshop I pull quality hits and money cards, every single time.

[slugger82685]

well I wish I had that kind of luck lol....seems the opposite to me, I rarely pulled quality cards at a brick & mortar shop, I think its just my luck though.....anyone that knows me personally knows that I have horrible luck

[bigbensbff]

i agree with this 100%

[Ajax1723]

Most of my big pulls have been from Online retailers like Blowout. Rarely do I pull something good from my LCS.

[bradsholly]

you've never seen "hobby direct" boxes?

This isn't a theory, its a proven fact!!

[FanboyOfNone]

I haven't opened enough to pull much useful data...

...but my case of Finest with the Luck Jumbo Relic Superfractor and auto'd Tannehill Atomic Rookie /10 was from an online retailer. Albeit an online retailer which seems to have a physical card shop presence as well. Not sure how that would affect what I was sent.

Yesterday I bought a box each of 2011/2012 R&S from my LCS. Nothing much in the 2012. But the 2011 had a Julio Jones 11/25 (eBay 1/1! ) with a massive patch auto...and some non auto'd Cam Newton patch out of /299.

[addicted36]

So your saying we shouldn't buy from Blowout because we won't get the best hits? I think you might have missed some of these threads

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...er-2012-a.html

Now I have a theory about cards and best pulls, goes a little like this. In a way it agrees with you since I believe brick and moter shops get the first cases released....

Card companies know that the more exciting they can make something the better it will sell. They also know that cards are bought and sold on places like this and Ebay and other online retailers and see how the value in cards usually decreases with time.

The card companies also know they have to make it seem like spending money on a hobby box will make you money so that they can continue to make the gamble worth it to the buyers. The understand that box breakers are not collectors, they are gamblers. Collectors are the people buying the cards the box breakers sell.

The know why people bust boxes and cases. The people who do that think they are going to gamble and strike it rich and love the rush associated with opening a box. This is a gamble and since the card companies are the dealers like any good dealer they are going to make your first experience a great one so you keep coming back.

So my theory is this....All card companies will front load the earliest cases produced with the best hits and will leave the worse hits out of the initial cases and ship them later. So as a gambler the very best shot you have at hitting the top cards come at the very first date of release and the likelyhood that you are going to hit a very valuable top chase card decreases the further away from release date you go.

The initial first round of hits you see on ebay go for the most money and hence generate the most excitement and momentum and gets people talking. The higher the prices the first cards go the more people who waited around for them want to buy...the more momentum behind wanting to buy the more sales the card companies will get down the road. In essence the card companies have a strong vested interest in ensuring that the first cards seen from a new release are high dollar money making cards for the buyers. They know that when people see someone spend $100 and get back $3000 that will generate purchases so they cater the business around that.

So in short if you want to buy some cards and open some boxes you better get them the day they come out for the best odds of hitting something nice.

[Prospect Rush]

Originally Posted by addicted36

So your saying we shouldn't buy from Blowout because we won't get the best hits? I think you might have missed some of these threads

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...er-2012-a.html

Now I have a theory about cards and best pulls, goes a little like this. In a way it agrees with you since I believe brick and moter shops get the first cases released....

Card companies know that the more exciting they can make something the better it will sell. They also know that cards are bought and sold on places like this and Ebay and other online retailers and see how the value in cards usually decreases with time.

The card companies also know they have to make it seem like spending money on a hobby box will make you money so that they can continue to make the gamble worth it to the buyers. The understand that box breakers are not collectors, they are gamblers. Collectors are the people buying the cards the box breakers sell.

The know why people bust boxes and cases. The people who do that think they are going to gamble and strike it rich and love the rush associated with opening a box. This is a gamble and since the card companies are the dealers like any good dealer they are going to make your first experience a great one so you keep coming back.

So my theory is this....All card companies will front load the earliest cases produced with the best hits and will leave the worse hits out of the initial cases and ship them later. So as a gambler the very best shot you have at hitting the top cards come at the very first date of release and the likelyhood that you are going to hit a very valuable top chase card decreases the further away from release date you go.

The initial first round of hits you see on ebay go for the most money and hence generate the most excitement and momentum and gets people talking. The higher the prices the first cards go the more people who waited around for them want to buy...the more momentum behind wanting to buy the more sales the card companies will get down the road. In essence the card companies have a strong vested interest in ensuring that the first cards seen from a new release are high dollar money making cards for the buyers. They know that when people see someone spend $100 and get back $3000 that will generate purchases so they cater the business around that.

So in short if you want to buy some cards and open some boxes you better get them the day they come out for the best odds of hitting something nice.

Why do they care if most stuff is made to order and already sold out?

[Wise4671]

I buy from hobby shops and also buy from Blowout Cards and all my best hits have come from the boxes that I have busted from Blowout Cards.

[MasterPattie]

I've busted many cases from both BO and my LCS. From my observations, the quality of the breaks have been about the same. I see no evidence to support the card shop theory.

Furthermore, I think it would be borderline unethical for card companies to knowingly load up their products to sell direct to the card shops and sell the less-loaded ones to their distributors.

[tnj0426]

Actually, at my brick and mortor LCS, over the last nine months. I pull these: Absolute Aaron Rodgers jersey autograph /25, Limited Cam Newton Phenom Spotlight /25 (13 breaks in patch area), Sandy Koufax Marquee Museum autograph /10, 2012 Topps Archive Topps Original 1969 Hank Aaron autograph #5/5. These were pulled within the first couple of weeks when the product was released.







I do agree that products are front loaded to generate interest; it is a standard marketing strategy. Example- why do so many short prints, like with Topps variations, show up the first week and a half, then, it is very difficult to pull one. Monster pulls occur with randomness, yet, we have all seen cases that seem to be loaded versus normal distribution of big hits.

[MI Rob]

My best pulls are from my LCS without question.

[JChrist1732]

This thread is a perfect example of how our shoddy psychology affects our perceptions.

[Texas Brave13]

This tread is a perfect example of how our shoddy psychology affects our perceptions.

The tread on the truck tires are a little low. I may go out and give'em the ol' Abe test...

[addicted36]

Originally Posted by Major_League

Why do they care if most stuff is made to order and already sold out?

They would care because its basic marketing. Get off on the right track and put your best foot forward so people are excited and wanting to buy, just because Chrome is sold out online doesn't mean everyone is sold out everywhere and that it won't show back up somewhere later.

[studioU]

I do believe, and have seen evidence, that most products are front-loaded. If shops get their's first then I would think they have a better chance at better hits. NT and 5* seem to be less so, maybe because there is a smaller print run. I also noticed Black Box Basketball was consistent throughout the breaks I saw. I have seen quit a few older product breaks and they are usually brutal.

[MasterPattie]

studioU, throwing his hat into the ring...

[Clarka3]

just doesn't seem to make sense considering, as ML said, they sell out at the factory before anythings even shipping.

sure, drive up excitement at first, but if things are sold out, it's not like the consumer is going to be able to run to the factory or Topps and buy more... They have seemingly little to gain from doing this, as when things cool off at the end of the run, might leave a sour taste in people's mouths for next year.

or, they just overproduce the products that rocked the year before and screw it up anyway.

[bigmikeatl88]

Think it's also been exacerbated by people not posting the 1363rd break where the hits were both /1368 whereas people will still post the cool hits.

[JoeyMach81]

Could be true, never even thought about this. You figure with a 10 case break you would expect some amazing results!

[Prospect Rush]

Originally Posted by addicted36

They would care because its basic marketing. Get off on the right track and put your best foot forward so people are excited and wanting to buy, just because Chrome is sold out online doesn't mean everyone is sold out everywhere and that it won't show back up somewhere later.

Not what I meant. Topps for example prints to order. On release day they ship it all out. No need for hype since by the time it starts getting busted they have the $$$ in the bank...

[JChrist1732]

Originally Posted by addicted36

They would care because its basic marketing. Get off on the right track and put your best foot forward so people are excited and wanting to buy, just because Chrome is sold out online doesn't mean everyone is sold out everywhere and that it won't show back up somewhere later.

Another thing to consider: if, for example, they ship all the Chrome superfractors the first day, after a week there would be no cards to chase, hurting the demand.

This thread, however, is full of speculation though with no factual information to back up any theories.

[03supto]

you know what!?

i'll second and third that opinion...i've pulled a 1/1 triple threads booklet, cam newton auto redemption /49 patch...and an andrew luck /90 auto, A LOT more than i can say from buying online...might be it why it's cheaper too!!!!!! never thought of that...thanks!!!!!

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Major_League

Not what I meant. Topps for example prints to order. On release day they ship it all out. No need for hype since by the time it starts getting busted they have the $$$ in the bank...

I tend to agree with this^^^^^^^ topps has already made their money on hobby cases by the time the product hits the market. Where is the true incentive? The product has already been purchased.

To me, retail is a totally different animal. I could definately see topps "frontloading" retail boxes when a product is first released to build hype/excitement, because they could always print more depending on how well the product is selling, hits left, etc......