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Old 09-12-2013, 03:52 PM   #1
ChicoCheese
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Default Football Elimination Pool -I think I made good choices.

This is not a contest for our boards, though I am in a pool at work with some sales reps and other folks up and down the west coast. Would love your input! I think I am making some good choices so far, and I hope to win. If I can beat my boss I view that as a semi-victory, but if I can win the pot I will be extra happy.

Week 1 my boss chose the Colts over the Raiders (because they were favored by 10.) and this week he chose New England over the Jets (again, because they are favored...or atleast were I am not sure.) Last week he was nearly knocked out of the competition and this week he may also get knocked out.

I chose the Chiefs in week 1 (and caught major flack for it, as they were only favored by 4.) I had a gut feeling the Chiefs would stop the Jags and I was right. This week I took Denver over New York. Again, the team I chose is only favored by 4 but I feel like Denver is going to build on their success last week. I am slightly nervous as Eli is known for outstanding, last minute victories but I think that Denver is a better all around team and will win.

What are your thoughts, and who would you pick?

Also, I am entertaining the idea of doing an elimination contest on these boards starting week 5. Who would be down for it and also, how would we do it to make it work? Everyone chips in a nice card and winner takes the pot? Let me know... I wouldn't one one guy to collect all the card and send them out to the winner though...too scary.
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Old 09-12-2013, 04:01 PM   #2
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I would NOT have chosen Denver so early. Have to look for weak teams vs even weaker teams. I would have taken OAK over JAX this week...maybe DAL over KC.
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Old 09-12-2013, 04:13 PM   #3
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Chose the team with the best chance of winning reguardless of how good the team is. The object is to stay in the competition as long as possible. There is no reason to "save" a good team to use later because if you lose with a mediocre team then you'll be out of the competition before you even have the chance to use a good team. I took the colts last week and I am taking the patriots this week. I also considered the Eagles over the Chargers.
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Old 09-12-2013, 04:19 PM   #4
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Im going Arizona over Detroit
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Old 09-12-2013, 05:39 PM   #5
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For me Arizona vs. Detroit was too close to feel comfortable and I also almost went Oak over Jax but I have this gut feeling that MJD is gonna get loose on Oakland and tear them up.

I picked Denver because they were less of a favorite choice and that SHOULD mean that fewer folks take them, and choose the Pats and Eagles and HOPEFULLY there is an upset.
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Old 09-17-2013, 12:51 PM   #6
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Alrighty folks, week 3 is upon us. Who would you feel more confident taking this week?

Philadelphia over KC

or

Dallas over St. Louis

or

New Orleans over Arizona

I realize the point spreads favor N.O. more than the other two games, and obviously Seattle over Jax is the clear favorite out of ALL week 3 games. However, I am trying to save most of my power-house teams for later in the elimination game (yes, I did take Denver last week but that game was only a 4 point favorite over NY.)

Advice is greatly appreciated, currently I am leaning towards Dallas over St. Louis.
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Old 09-17-2013, 12:54 PM   #7
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None of those look appealing.

Arizona is tough, the Rams are tough and Philly and KC is a toss up.

However, if N.O. is at home, I would probably take them.
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Old 09-17-2013, 12:58 PM   #8
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week 1 i did indy
week 2 i did oakland
week 3 im doing minnesota.

no brainer id do seattle, but i like saving those teams when possible.
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Old 09-17-2013, 01:52 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GetBig14 View Post
Chose the team with the best chance of winning reguardless of how good the team is. The object is to stay in the competition as long as possible.
This is literally the worst way to try and win survivor pools. Absolute worst.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid: Week 2 Help

If you aren't taking into account popularity of pick, eW%, future value, etc., you're never, ever going to win a large pool. Ever.
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Old 09-17-2013, 01:55 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hagrin View Post
This is literally the worst way to try and win survivor pools. Absolute worst.

2013 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid: Week 2 Help

If you aren't taking into account popularity of pick, eW%, future value, etc., you're never, ever going to win a large pool. Ever.
I agree....but it depends on your pool size like you said. I'm in one with over a hundred people. You have to last the entire season to share in the winnings. If you are in a pool with 10-15 people that may not be a bad strategy.

Still this week I'd look at Minnesota in their home opener before the games you are looking at. If you want a no-brainer now would be the week to have used Denver or Seattle.
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Old 09-17-2013, 02:06 PM   #11
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I agree....but it depends on your pool size like you said. I'm in one with over a hundred people. You have to last the entire season to share in the winnings. If you are in a pool with 10-15 people that may not be a bad strategy.

Still this week I'd look at Minnesota in their home opener before the games you are looking at. If you want a no-brainer now would be the week to have used Denver or Seattle.
hold onto denver until week 5 if can, vs. jax haha. but yes, the easiest strategy this year is to pick vs. jax unless you blew the chance by using one of those teams already.
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Old 09-17-2013, 02:52 PM   #12
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week 1 i did indy
week 2 i did oakland
week 3 im doing minnesota.

no brainer id do seattle, but i like saving those teams when possible.
I hear ya on MN, and I almost thought about making them one of my top 3 choices but they are just too wishy washy for me. I mean, Ponder is just tanking left and right this season. The Browns could pull off an upset. We shall see, maybe they will be the right choice.
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Old 09-17-2013, 03:09 PM   #13
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Old 09-17-2013, 03:19 PM   #14
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Id go Bears over Steelers this week. I wouldnt touch the Pats until later in the year when they get on track.
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Old 09-17-2013, 04:12 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicoCheese View Post
Alrighty folks, week 3 is upon us. Who would you feel more confident taking this week?

Philadelphia over KC

or

Dallas over St. Louis

or

New Orleans over Arizona

I realize the point spreads favor N.O. more than the other two games, and obviously Seattle over Jax is the clear favorite out of ALL week 3 games. However, I am trying to save most of my power-house teams for later in the elimination game (yes, I did take Denver last week but that game was only a 4 point favorite over NY.)

Advice is greatly appreciated, currently I am leaning towards Dallas over St. Louis.
I like Philly to win at home this week. Chiefs are bound to regress on the road as they travel. A weak pass offense vs. a pathetic eagles secondary bodes better for Philly.....
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Old 09-17-2013, 10:49 PM   #16
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I picked the Chiefs in week 1. Wish I woulda saved them now.
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Old 09-17-2013, 11:31 PM   #17
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I might also take the Vikings this week. Weeden is out with his thumb injury. Maybe taking the Bears over the Steelers.
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Old 09-17-2013, 11:37 PM   #18
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I think the Steelers are due for I win. I think they may just take the Bears (and I HOPE they do!)
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Old 09-17-2013, 11:39 PM   #19
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Quote:
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I think the Steelers are due for I win. I think they may just take the Bears (and I HOPE they do!)
19 total points against the Bengals and Titans doesn't strike me as having high hopes vs a team who has scored 55 points in two weeks.
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Old 09-18-2013, 02:01 AM   #20
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Yeah, you're right...also I just noticed that I said "Due for I win." Oops... shoulda been "A win."
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Old 09-18-2013, 06:36 PM   #21
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Wow, I feel a ton better about taking the Vikings over the Brown now! Not that I was TOO worried earlier, but I feel a ton more relaxed about it now.
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