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Old 08-20-2016, 07:34 AM   #1
nrm1977
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Default Are we in a modern "junk wax era"?

I grew collecting in the "first" junk wax era (1987-1993). With that said, it seems the current current card markets are mass-producing products. Since we're I'm posting this in the football section, I'll reference football cards by Panini.

The shear amount of products produced makes me scratch my head. All these products are watered down beyond believe. For instance, jersey cards are worthless nowadays, you'll be lucky to get a dollar for a semi-star player. Heck, these aren't even game worn. These jersey's are event worn, players just put on and take off an endless amount of jersey's. To top it off, I saw in another thread that the manufacturer had the player put on a jersey 4x's the size to increase the amount of endless jersey cards. The signatures aren't even on card anymore (very few products), stickers, really?!

I'm curious how much of each product Panini is printing? I can't imagine all of these current products selling even half the amount printed! I don't see how anyone can even have fun collecting this "stuff"? Now, I understand people collect but, I think the majority of people would like their cards to hold some value. I just don't see how any of these products can hold value. Look at the amount of each rookie card produced. With 30+ products and in each product probably 10+ different versions of each card. It's absolutely mind-boggling.

These companie(s) (along with the NFL, inc) are just trying to maximize profit. Which as a business is ok IF you're producing a good product and I"m sorry but, these current products are just junk!

Thoughts?
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Old 08-20-2016, 07:56 AM   #2
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I think you are right. Poopnini will soon destroy the Football market then attempt to acquire the Baseball exclusive. If that happens we will see the same thing - diarrheal output of products that nobody wants and that retains no value, I.e. junk wax. We will see abandoned cases of Panini Phoenix just laying by the road on Indian reservations...
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Old 08-20-2016, 10:37 AM   #3
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I dont think the amount of releases is so much the problem as the lack of innovation is. Every set looks roughly the same, with the same checklist, with the same stickers, and the same event worn jerseys.

I'm old school, I don't like autos or memorabilia on cards. How about releasing a couple sets without hits? Give us traditional guys some ultra rare inserts to chase.

How about a few sets devoted to just defense or offensive line or specials team or coaches or unsung heroes? Really anything other than the same checklist everytime.

Then of course, they can mix up the memorabilia. If Nascar can do firesuit, sheet metal, gloves, helmet, and tires then the possibilities here are endless. The Super Bowl pylons in 2011 exquisite were a huge hit. Why did they get away from them?

They could do a set with scenery, the different stadiums and training facilities all around the country. Include historic venues and such.

They could do a set highlighting specific moments and plays.

If they wanted to expand the base, they could do a pop culture set. Show famous stars in their favorite team jerseys and offer autos with it.

There's just so much they could do beside the same stuff over and over and over again.
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Old 08-20-2016, 10:37 AM   #4
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As far as I'm concerned, yes we are in a period where football cards (autos especially) are overproduced.

None of this crap will be worth anything in 10-20 years except for possibly any players who become HOFers.

I think this one reason why the vintage market has exploded.
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Old 08-20-2016, 10:55 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redman01 View Post
I dont think the amount of releases is so much the problem as the lack of innovation is. Every set looks roughly the same, with the same checklist, with the same stickers, and the same event worn jerseys.

I'm old school, I don't like autos or memorabilia on cards. How about releasing a couple sets without hits? Give us traditional guys some ultra rare inserts to chase.

How about a few sets devoted to just defense or offensive line or specials team or coaches or unsung heroes? Really anything other than the same checklist everytime.

Then of course, they can mix up the memorabilia. If Nascar can do firesuit, sheet metal, gloves, helmet, and tires then the possibilities here are endless. The Super Bowl pylons in 2011 exquisite were a huge hit. Why did they get away from them?

They could do a set with scenery, the different stadiums and training facilities all around the country. Include historic venues and such.

They could do a set highlighting specific moments and plays.

If they wanted to expand the base, they could do a pop culture set. Show famous stars in their favorite team jerseys and offer autos with it.

There's just so much they could do beside the same stuff over and over and over again.


Some nice suggestions here!!!!

By sheer production, I don't know if we can truly call this another "junk wax" era---but it terms of product mediocrity I would agree.

I want to like Panini, I really do, but when each product looks the same, it's tough. They inherited some nice products from donruss/leaf (classics/limited/certified) but these releases are now a shadow of themselves.

As of now the only product I'm thinking about buying is contenders---the one product they haven't completely run into the ground. (but it too, is getting bogged down)

I think a lot of collectors are like me: get your fix opening wax by buying older boxes. (I'm still buying 2014 and older)
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:00 AM   #6
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There were more products/production in the "golden era"....

2007 had like 40 products....

Not that long Topps had auto's out of 5 million...
Inserts were /1500 but you think those are "rare" because you want to live in the past..


There's no collectors left because lessons were learned especially from the reggie bush era...
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:05 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Gustomania View Post
None of this crap will be worth anything in 10-20 years except for possibly any players who become HOFers.

.
None of the crap from 10-20 is worth anything now either.

None of this crap is worth anything NOW...you don't need to wait 20 years... you can just wait 2weeks-2 years.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:14 AM   #8
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I agree on 99% of this, however you will still find value in guys like Brady, Rodgers, AP in the future, we just don't know who those players will be from 2012 - Present (maybe none of them)

Every decade has at least 2-3 significant HOF players and those will have value regardless of mass production.....


Quote:
Originally Posted by k13 View Post
None of the crap from 10-20 is worth anything now either.

None of this crap is worth anything NOW...you don't need to wait 20 years... you can just wait 2weeks-2 years.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:28 AM   #9
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the chase is in the rare top cards, doesn't matter if the lower level stuff is worth anything, it's all about that top guys cards that are low numbered / auto'd........ all the top rc's low numbered stuff is going for over $100 and that's all that will ever matter. a good example is cam newton, if you invested in him, YOU WON..............there is money to be made but it's not in $1 jersey cards and junk auto's, you have to buy the correct stuff.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:36 AM   #10
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As noted, I think a huge impact of the perception that this is all "junk" is that nearly all products are rookie centric. Thousands of Rookie autos, jerseys, inserts, base cards, parallels. Every release. Every year. Year after year. Anything that has even a remotely reasonable shot of pulling a HOFer autograph (either enshrined or will be: Manning/Rodgers/Brady, etc.) is automatically $350+ per box. They just load this crap with autos and memorabilia from the guys they can get to sign stacks of stickers for a couple bucks each. They can't build sets around HOFer type players who charge $100+ a signature.

End result: exactly as mentioned above. The big money is now chasing older stuff - vintage, HOFer on-card autos from old sets, SP's from 90's insert sets, etc. Personally, I know I am glad I started building a few of the older UD auto sets about 8 years back. The prices they get now are crazy, if they even show up anymore.

In general, it juts won't get better until the value is driven by current stars or HOFers - and you can actually pull autos of those types with consistency - and not them hoping to lure people in each year with the hot, hot, hot sick mojorific rookie(s) of that season. The entire approach is bassackwards.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:39 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redman01 View Post
I dont think the amount of releases is so much the problem as the lack of innovation is. Every set looks roughly the same, with the same checklist, with the same stickers, and the same event worn jerseys.

I'm old school, I don't like autos or memorabilia on cards. How about releasing a couple sets without hits? Give us traditional guys some ultra rare inserts to chase.

How about a few sets devoted to just defense or offensive line or specials team or coaches or unsung heroes? Really anything other than the same checklist everytime.

Then of course, they can mix up the memorabilia. If Nascar can do firesuit, sheet metal, gloves, helmet, and tires then the possibilities here are endless. The Super Bowl pylons in 2011 exquisite were a huge hit. Why did they get away from them?

They could do a set with scenery, the different stadiums and training facilities all around the country. Include historic venues and such.

They could do a set highlighting specific moments and plays.

If they wanted to expand the base, they could do a pop culture set. Show famous stars in their favorite team jerseys and offer autos with it.

There's just so much they could do beside the same stuff over and over and over again.
I'm old school, and I am not making excuses for Panini.

With just the card itself, what is still left to be invented?
1989 Upper Deck, quality card in baseball, 1991 in football
1990 Action Packed, embossed cards
1992 Bowman with foil edges, Topps Gold foil
1992 Collector's Edge printed on plastic
1993 Bowman with colored foil
1993 Pacific with Prism effects
1995 Pacific Crown Royale with foil edged diecuts
That are some of the changes I can remember off the top of myself, compare that to 1987-1988 Topps, with color shifts, sometimes too blue etc, misaligned print so players would look like they wore mascara, fuzzy images, bubbly paper, dull colors on the back, a lot of change happened for the better.

Cards have been made using metal, glass, probably other materials

A lot of innovation took place, parallels, inserts, auto, memorabilia

There must have been about 1000 designs, so cards have had so much change since 1989, it is hard to constantly remain fresh.

Where is it different today,
a) the cost of a pack / box
b) the repeating of the same core checklist
c) small sets, easier to produce, but up to 20ish parallels for the rainbow collectors.
d) excessive amounts of 'game worn' junk or rookie autos to fulfill the number of 'hits' per box, with a lot of rookies who will never become stars (my Jets Tajh Boyd as an example.)

The examples from redman01 will work for some collectors, that's for sure.

Expanding the set, as in the old days, like 1997 Pacific or 2004-6 Topps Total, some of my favorite sets for creating the only RC's of some players, they were hated because there were too many 5th LB on the roster, 3rd S 5th CB, free agents who made the team but missed out on the mass RC production because they were an undrafted free agent. If you weren't a superfan of your team, who was Vance Joseph and Kwame Ellis (short time CB's for the Jets in the mid 90's, one card each)

The changes will come as was pointed out, the buyers go down buying new, the LCS / case buyers go down, Blowout and the like reduce purchasing if $100 boxes turn into $30 sales and it' not sustainable, Panini will need to change it's business model.

I stated last week, I am waiting for 5 established Panini products to appear, Prizm, Contenders, National Treasures are three of them, by contrast, the Gala, Infinity, Phoenix etc appearing now or shortly, good luck to everyone in the supply chain from Panini on down, I'm and buying $0 worth so somebody may buy it, but it's going to be hard moving all of that, I'll use the common word here 'junk'.

So I will finish on a positive, what do I like.
In baseball Topps Heritage. Topps can go back and reproduce the design from about 40 years ago. Can Panini repeat that with Contenders, would it be accepted. Start in 2018 and announce it, celebrating the design from 1993 (25 years) or 1998 (20 years) when the Playoff ticket first appeared. Maybe always make it vertical format, not horizontal, but the buzz would be the design would be know and desired, the checklist would be the mystery.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:45 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustomania View Post
I agree on 99% of this, however you will still find value in guys like Brady, Rodgers, AP in the future, we just don't know who those players will be from 2012 - Present (maybe none of them)

Every decade has at least 2-3 significant HOF players and those will have value regardless of mass production.....
Yes. Every year will have a couple worthy players long term and those will be "vintage" in the future.
If someone becomes a legend then it trickles down to their mid-low end rc's too as the high end become too unaffordable for the masses.
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Old 08-20-2016, 11:48 AM   #13
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Yes, yes we are.
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Old 08-20-2016, 12:03 PM   #14
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Collecting cards is like the stock market. There's crazes and bubbles that will burst. Everyone thinks they know what will be worth more in the future, hence why they buy them. But at the end of the day its all luck. No one knows exactly what will happen and a lot of people will loose money trying to time tops and bottoms


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Old 08-20-2016, 12:08 PM   #15
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At the end of the day, as long as you collect for the joy of collecting instead of doing so to make a buck down the road, you can't lose. Enjoy what you PC without placing a monetary value to it.
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Old 08-20-2016, 01:00 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redman01 View Post
I dont think the amount of releases is so much the problem as the lack of innovation is. Every set looks roughly the same, with the same checklist, with the same stickers, and the same event worn jerseys.

I'm old school, I don't like autos or memorabilia on cards. How about releasing a couple sets without hits? Give us traditional guys some ultra rare inserts to chase.

How about a few sets devoted to just defense or offensive line or specials team or coaches or unsung heroes? Really anything other than the same checklist everytime.

Then of course, they can mix up the memorabilia. If Nascar can do firesuit, sheet metal, gloves, helmet, and tires then the possibilities here are endless. The Super Bowl pylons in 2011 exquisite were a huge hit. Why did they get away from them?

They could do a set with scenery, the different stadiums and training facilities all around the country. Include historic venues and such.

They could do a set highlighting specific moments and plays.

If they wanted to expand the base, they could do a pop culture set. Show famous stars in their favorite team jerseys and offer autos with it.

There's just so much they could do beside the same stuff over and over and over again.
Panini just posted a SB 50 Pylon yesterday........ To be cut up I suppose.
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Old 08-20-2016, 01:16 PM   #17
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This all sounds like the exact same discussions we had in 1997 when I sold my entire football collection.
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Old 08-20-2016, 02:35 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ginge01 View Post
I'm old school, and I am not making excuses for Panini.

With just the card itself, what is still left to be invented?
1989 Upper Deck, quality card in baseball, 1991 in football
1990 Action Packed, embossed cards
1992 Bowman with foil edges, Topps Gold foil
1992 Collector's Edge printed on plastic
1993 Bowman with colored foil
1993 Pacific with Prism effects
1995 Pacific Crown Royale with foil edged diecuts
That are some of the changes I can remember off the top of myself, compare that to 1987-1988 Topps, with color shifts, sometimes too blue etc, misaligned print so players would look like they wore mascara, fuzzy images, bubbly paper, dull colors on the back, a lot of change happened for the better.

Cards have been made using metal, glass, probably other materials

A lot of innovation took place, parallels, inserts, auto, memorabilia

There must have been about 1000 designs, so cards have had so much change since 1989, it is hard to constantly remain fresh.

Where is it different today,
a) the cost of a pack / box
b) the repeating of the same core checklist
c) small sets, easier to produce, but up to 20ish parallels for the rainbow collectors.
d) excessive amounts of 'game worn' junk or rookie autos to fulfill the number of 'hits' per box, with a lot of rookies who will never become stars (my Jets Tajh Boyd as an example.)

The examples from redman01 will work for some collectors, that's for sure.

Expanding the set, as in the old days, like 1997 Pacific or 2004-6 Topps Total, some of my favorite sets for creating the only RC's of some players, they were hated because there were too many 5th LB on the roster, 3rd S 5th CB, free agents who made the team but missed out on the mass RC production because they were an undrafted free agent. If you weren't a superfan of your team, who was Vance Joseph and Kwame Ellis (short time CB's for the Jets in the mid 90's, one card each)

The changes will come as was pointed out, the buyers go down buying new, the LCS / case buyers go down, Blowout and the like reduce purchasing if $100 boxes turn into $30 sales and it' not sustainable, Panini will need to change it's business model.

I stated last week, I am waiting for 5 established Panini products to appear, Prizm, Contenders, National Treasures are three of them, by contrast, the Gala, Infinity, Phoenix etc appearing now or shortly, good luck to everyone in the supply chain from Panini on down, I'm and buying $0 worth so somebody may buy it, but it's going to be hard moving all of that, I'll use the common word here 'junk'.

So I will finish on a positive, what do I like.
In baseball Topps Heritage. Topps can go back and reproduce the design from about 40 years ago. Can Panini repeat that with Contenders, would it be accepted. Start in 2018 and announce it, celebrating the design from 1993 (25 years) or 1998 (20 years) when the Playoff ticket first appeared. Maybe always make it vertical format, not horizontal, but the buzz would be the design would be know and desired, the checklist would be the mystery.

Great post right here, covers just about everything.
I would have to agree for the most part as to the current state of overproduction, but I feel that this is the "end result" of trying to make ALL collectors happy.

I'm not sticking up for Panini or any of the other companies, but from their vantage point, they are screwed if they do, and screwed if they don't.

They are trying to make every single type of collector happy, and this is the end result. The regurgitation of designs, watered down products, an epic *&^%$ ton of no name rookies from round 5, and 6, etc, etc..

At the end of the day, this makes them more money, so I don't expect it to change.
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Old 08-20-2016, 02:52 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by 88horsepower View Post
At the end of the day, as long as you collect for the joy of collecting instead of doing so to make a buck down the road, you can't lose. Enjoy what you PC without placing a monetary value to it.
^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^
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Old 08-20-2016, 02:59 PM   #20
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here here to more expanded checklists. Score and base Topps used to be the only products that had the expanded rosters. Now i barely see any punters, kickers, or OLs.

Also +1 to more vets and HOF guys in the products. chasing the same rookies from product to product is boring AF. Get more autos of the old guys, and get more cards (and possibly autos) of the way off the wall guys.


my favorite panini products historically have been Contenders (and i'll even lump Contenders Draft in here so long as they have a Bearcat for me to chase AND/OR also carry an expanded checklist so I can snag an auto of a rookie that doesn't end up getting a regular contenders auto), Crown (yeah, i'm one of those guys, but haven't been a fan for the last few releases), and Certified (which used to seem like it had more of a vet/HOF presence in the checklist).
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Old 08-20-2016, 03:32 PM   #21
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At the end of the day, as long as you collect for the joy of collecting instead of doing so to make a buck down the road, you can't lose. Enjoy what you PC without placing a monetary value to it.
Yup, I agree with this.
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Old 08-20-2016, 05:50 PM   #22
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I always thought that one of the more satisfying things about collecting cards was finishing a master set. Is that even realistically possible anymore?
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Old 08-20-2016, 06:38 PM   #23
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I always thought that one of the more satisfying things about collecting cards was finishing a master set. Is that even realistically possible anymore?
From everything I have seen, its not possible.

You literally have about 100 cards in a NT set that you have to pay near $150,000 for those. (the 1/1s 1/3s 1/5s rare variations, super expensive high end rookies RPAs) etc. etc.
You think you have plenty of money? Even if you do, its still not possible.
The only way you could "truly" have a complete set is to buy every single case available, and that will never happen.

Its kind of like the guys around here saying they "completed a rainbow".
Sure some do, and I get that and applaud it.
But realistically, if it contains any 1/1s, then how many people can say they got all variations/finished that rainbow.....? Just one person.

About the only thing you can really do is complete some of the "subsets".
One guy I know here is gathering up all the 2015 NT RPA's.
Thats right, he is getting a complete set of every player available.
He is down to the last 4 or 5 players.
I know Gurley is one of the last few he doesn't have. (thats likely a price issue, not scarcity) But I do know he had trouble finding a few, and he has been watching EBAY for several months now.


Anyway, I agree, they need to make it where your average collector has a chance at finishing a complete set.
That aspect is missing from the hobby now.
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Old 08-20-2016, 08:56 PM   #24
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Yes, yes we are.
No, we really are not.

There's a lot of similar products, but we haven't even approached the level of junk wax of the early 1990's. Unnumbered autos have been prevalent for a long time from Topps, yet everyone is happy to pull one from a Blaster (even a no name), but if it is in a Hobby Box, then it's a bad card.

I want people to do some searches for Classic autos from the early 1990's. Rookie autos #'d/7,500 and they were only maybe one or two per case. Have fun with a huge stack of base cards that are worth nothing.
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Old 08-20-2016, 09:21 PM   #25
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How many cases did Topps produce of chrome the last few years???
10000+ some years...

Yet you love it...

How many of these garbage sets actually have 10000+ cases???
Doubt very many..
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