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Old 03-25-2017, 11:21 AM   #1
fact81
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Greetings all.
I must admit, I have slowed down considerably in Football Card collecting/purchasing/trading. I guess that happens with a wife & looking for a house. No kids yet lol.

I was just wondering the opinions of all of these great minds in Sportscard collecting what the best unopened boxes to invest in would be:

For example: I have these unopened wax boxes in my collection(definitely not cracking them open)

2000 Fleer Showcase Hobby Box(x2) (Brady)
2000 Fleer Metal Hobby Box (Brady)
2000 Quantum Leaf Hobby Box(Brady)
2000 Pacific Hobby Box(Brady)
1984 Topps Football Hobby Box(Elway, Marino, Dickerson RCS)
1989 Score Football Hobby Box(B.Sanders, D.Sanders,Aikman RCS)
1983 Topps Football Hobby Box(Singletary RC)
1987 Topps Football Box(Forget who is in this for RCS)
2004 UD Reflections Football Hobby Box(Big Ben, Eli, Rivers RCS)
Bunch of 2001 Boxes(Brees, Vick, Tomlinson)

My question is, in 20-25 years, which boxes do you think will be the most sought after/$$$. Vintage has been hot for years, but seems to have died down a smidge over the past month. My thought is that the 2000 boxes with Tom Brady Rookie potential might be even better than an 1984 Topps Football Box.

Thoughts & opinions welcome

Thanks a ton!

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Old 03-25-2017, 11:37 AM   #2
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The prices on '84 wax have gone crazy in the last few years. I bought a box of 84 from BBCEX for a little over $400 like 4 years ago. Now they're listing boxes at $1,350. They've more than tripled in price.
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Old 03-25-2017, 11:41 AM   #3
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ssbledsoe - Indeed! I bought a box of 1984 topps(I think from dave & adams) for $600.

I just feel Tom Brady is most likely going down right now as the best QB of all time(possibly even best player of all time). Just getting a feeling 2000 boxes in 20 years are gonna worth a ton! I could be wrong!
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Old 03-25-2017, 11:52 AM   #4
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84' is a good one. But as much as I hate Tom Brady, he is going to be the most expensive, sought after player in the hobby for years. Buying any year 2000 box right now is a guaranteed profit as a med to long term investment. Cheers.
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Old 03-25-2017, 02:19 PM   #5
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ssbledsoe - Indeed! I bought a box of 1984 topps(I think from dave & adams) for $600.

I just feel Tom Brady is most likely going down right now as the best QB of all time(possibly even best player of all time). Just getting a feeling 2000 boxes in 20 years are gonna worth a ton! I could be wrong!
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84' is a good one. But as much as I hate Tom Brady, he is going to be the most expensive, sought after player in the hobby for years. Buying any year 2000 box right now is a guaranteed profit as a med to long term investment. Cheers.
As a Pats fan, I agree with a lot that has been said. My only apprehension is that Brady has 2 really "iconic" RC's (Contenders/SPA). Dickerson, Elway, Marino, etc only have 1 rookie. The 1984 set has 11 (ELEVEN?!?!?!) HOFers. That set, to me, is epic and hard to top IMO. I know none of those guys are Brady, but I think a lot of guys would rather pull their own (Marino, Elway, Dickerson, etc) than pull a non-iconic Brady.
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Old 03-26-2017, 05:39 PM   #6
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Any other opinions?
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:14 PM   #7
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Any year that has a quarterback with a big following like Peyton, Brady. I would think 2005 would be good with Aaron Rodgers. I don't know if id dare to go beyond that year at this point. Maybe 2012 would be a strong candidate with Luck and Wilson. What products? Contenders and chrome would probably be the most popular. With Aaron Rodgers upper deck but some of that stuff is already very pricey. Id also consider 2001 for Brees stuff.
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Old 03-26-2017, 06:26 PM   #8
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Just think of years with sure fire hall or famers, all time greats. Brady, Manning, Elway, Montana, Marino, Brees, and anyone else i missed. Not really good players that will make the HOF...but the best.
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Old 03-26-2017, 08:11 PM   #9
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I just can't see sealed boxes from the "graded" Era having the same steam as current vintage. Boxes of 1984 were ripped, cards were kept in rubber bands. If you want high grade now you have to buy a box, or pay for one graded.

Brady sells well, Brady sold well 2 years removed from his rookie year. So those key singles were well kept, unlike countless Marinos or Elways from 84.

Will sealed 2000 go up? Sure. But not at the rate of a 10.00 box of 1984 (what it costs at the time).
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:54 AM   #10
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I just can't see sealed boxes from the "graded" Era having the same steam as current vintage. Boxes of 1984 were ripped, cards were kept in rubber bands. If you want high grade now you have to buy a box, or pay for one graded.

Brady sells well, Brady sold well 2 years removed from his rookie year. So those key singles were well kept, unlike countless Marinos or Elways from 84.

Will sealed 2000 go up? Sure. But not at the rate of a 10.00 box of 1984 (what it costs at the time).
This is really the only answer to the original question.

The whole premise to the question lies on one factor; condition. Brady's are and will forever be in top notch graded holders. Every RC has a bunch of examples at the top end and countless 9's. There is no shortage of them, they are just expensive and the value on them will go down. Every modern player has their top stuff increase in value and lesser desired items fall by the wayside to a certain extent. Even if Brady has 10 different rookies that stay at current value, that is not rising and the boxes won't rise unless the potential singles from it are rising....... Contenders, SPA... sure............. but most other items will be worth less in 3 years than they are when he retires.

The 84 items in gem are difficult to find, and as mentioned above were in rubber bands; probably glove boxes and everywhere else.... their borders are often diamond cut or way off center. Graded cards from this year will continue to rise due to scarcity if nothing else... plus double digit HOF's is a huge plus.

Buy 84 wax for investment..... buy the already graded Brady for investment..... but I don't see how the 2000 wax would ever be a really good investment outside of a handful of brands
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:48 AM   #11
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Looking at your list, here are my only concerns with long term holds:

1984 Topps Football Hobby Box(Elway, Marino, Dickerson RCS)
1989 Score Football Hobby Box(B.Sanders, D.Sanders,Aikman RCS)
1983 Topps Football Hobby Box(Singletary RC)
1987 Topps Football Box(Forget who is in this for RCS)

With the above, you only have to worry about the stray gum stains on one of the Topps cards per pack, and the printing/cutting techniques of the era. Both issue are wildly know and the value of a sealed box will always reflect this. Good long term hold prospects if you bought smart.

2000 Fleer Showcase Hobby Box(x2) (Brady)
2000 Fleer Metal Hobby Box (Brady)
2000 Quantum Leaf Hobby Box(Brady)
2000 Pacific Hobby Box(Brady)
2004 UD Reflections Football Hobby Box(Big Ben, Eli, Rivers RCS)
Bunch of 2001 Boxes(Brees, Vick, Tomlinson)

With the above modern boxes, you have to take into account modern card stock. With glossy finishes on some, these cards can "gel" together the longer they sit. This is an obvious concern, I cant tell you how many times I busted a box from 10-15 years ago and each pack produced a mini brick of cards stuck together. With the clay stock of older sets, this is not an issue.

Plus the value in these modern boxes is tied to the mem/auto content that might be in there. If that hit is a redemption, and that's obviously expired 20 years from now (35 years removed from the original date) that would have to be taken into consideration.

If the main hits, like Brady, were always inserted live the effect is minimal, but still there.

A good example is Panini making good on expired redemptions from the old DLP company they bought. You might not get the same card, but you will usually get something. Thats the deal they have right now. Will that deal be there 15 years down the road? Who knows.

Just some things to consider when trying to gauge the value of "modern" vintage sealed wax.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:06 PM   #12
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If you are looking for an investment perhaps a Roth IRA with a low cost mutual fund! Even at conservative 7% growth your money will OCTUPLE in 30 years (equivalent to a $500 box selling for $4,000 in thirty years.) The chance of finding a box or card that will do that is slim to none. Collect for fun!

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Old 03-27-2017, 01:00 PM   #13
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If you are looking for an investment perhaps a Roth IRA with a low cost mutual fund! Even at conservative 7% growth your money will OCTUPLE in 30 years (equivalent to a $500 box selling for $4,000 in thirty years.) The chance of finding a box or card that will do that is slim to none. Collect for fun!

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I make too much money for a Roth IRA. Even if I convert some of the dough in my IRA over to a Roth IRA I wouldn't want to pay the taxes upfront to do so.

Looking for investments outside of holding/hedging your own dollars are appealing to many people. I see nothing wrong with enjoying a hobby as well as looking at the investment angle of such.

Maybe OP wants to sell his boxes in 3-5 years to realize his investment sooner. Maybe something happens that drives up the value of these boxes sooner. In that instance, his short term might be a better investment and easier to realize than your 30 year plan.

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Old 03-27-2017, 01:23 PM   #14
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I just have lost interest in purchasing/ripping packs. I remember when Game Used cards first came out. 1996 Upperdeck had Jerseys & Collectors Edge Advantage had Gameballs. They were so popular & amazing to an average collector. Now in 2017, Panini has what, 15-20 Products that are mass produced with thousands of crappy Rooie Premiere Materials from players wrist bands, tee shirts, caps, ear plugs & other crap. It has just gotten ridiculous. I still watch people bust product & enjoy reading the different threads, but buying newer product that is overpriced, mass produced & yield you an Undrafted rookie auto limited to /10 doesn't appeal to me. Buying & investing in the early stuff is more fun to me

I would rather hang onto boxes I paid a couple hundred beans for & see what they are worth in 20 years. Maybe I can use them to pay my kids college tuition, take my wife on a nice vacation or pass them down to my kids. Who knows?
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Old 03-27-2017, 01:32 PM   #15
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Maybe OP wants to sell his boxes in 3-5 years to realize his investment sooner. Maybe something happens that drives up the value of these boxes sooner. In that instance, his short term might be a better investment and easier to realize than your 30 year plan.
Read the post, his question is 20-25 years...so that's why I said 30. There is definitely opportunity to flip and make some money in cards but IMO there are better long term "investment" opportunities.

OP, question just popped in my head, I'm curious if you store these boxes a special way or hold insurance on them since they are fairly valuable?
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Old 03-27-2017, 01:35 PM   #16
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I just have lost interest in purchasing/ripping packs. I remember when Game Used cards first came out. 1996 Upperdeck had Jerseys & Collectors Edge Advantage had Gameballs. They were so popular & amazing to an average collector. Now in 2017, Panini has what, 15-20 Products that are mass produced with thousands of crappy Rooie Premiere Materials from players wrist bands, tee shirts, caps, ear plugs & other crap. It has just gotten ridiculous. I still watch people bust product & enjoy reading the different threads, but buying newer product that is overpriced, mass produced & yield you an Undrafted rookie auto limited to /10 doesn't appeal to me. Buying & investing in the early stuff is more fun to me

I would rather hang onto boxes I paid a couple hundred beans for & see what they are worth in 20 years. Maybe I can use them to pay my kids college tuition, take my wife on a nice vacation or pass them down to my kids. Who knows?
I agree, the new stuff just isn't as appealing as the older stuff! Go Lions!
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Old 03-27-2017, 01:44 PM   #17
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I have them secured in a temperature controlled environment & encased in a bin. I can't say I have ever thought about insurance for them. Although over time(hmmm, maybe).

I think the 1 thing that will NEVER change in this hobby is potential to pull that "big card" unless it is listed somewhere on ebay or another traders site. IE: When was the last time you saw a perfect BGS 10 Marino Rookie or Elway Rookie. Without looking at the registry, I am willing to bet there are VERY few(if any). So the chance of opening a sealed hobby box with this potential card in it, people over time are going to pay whatever it takes. With the year 2000, Tom Brady is the Michael Jordan of Football & even though he has more Rookie cards than Jordan does(1986 Fleer), people will STILL continue to pay whatever it takes to acquire 1 or at least a chance to hit one in a box of 2000 product.

What will these boxes be worth in 25 years? No idea, maybe 1K, maybe 3K, maybe 200 bucks. No idea
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Old 03-27-2017, 02:59 PM   #18
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I have to disagree to a certain extent to some of the stuff mentioned above. The early Contenders were very condition sensitive. You aren't going to find endless BGS 9's. Not unless you consider 250 Brady's endless. And SP Authentic there were only 1250 made. That's a limited quantity. Sure the lesser brands probably had more as far as quantity and are valued less rightfully so.

If you want to talk about mass produced that was Topps in the 80's. There's ten's of thousands of Marino, Elway and Montana's out there floating around. Those cards aren't rare at all. Sure the best conditioned ones might be but those were probably opened 20 years later and put directly in a penny sleeve and top loader just like modern cards.
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:44 PM   #19
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Read the post, his question is 20-25 years...so that's why I said 30. There is definitely opportunity to flip and make some money in cards but IMO there are better long term "investment" opportunities.

OP, question just popped in my head, I'm curious if you store these boxes a special way or hold insurance on them since they are fairly valuable?
I did read his post, you are the one than spun his question on wax investing with IRA's LOL. I was only pointing out that an IRA is a long term play, he will have to sit out those 30 years to get the returns you spoke of.

Investing in wax, no matter how tricky, might have short term swings that can be realized immediately.
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:53 PM   #20
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I have them secured in a temperature controlled environment & encased in a bin. I can't say I have ever thought about insurance for them. Although over time(hmmm, maybe).
The above is the general problem with modern wax. You might have kept them sealed in a bin for the length you own them. But no way to know if they were sitting in the basement of some distributor for a decade before you got them. Or in the garage of another collector before that.

Anyone who would buy these boxes in the future would have to assume as much on the condition they might be in. Its not like we are talking about cello packs sadly. So that will still play into their value down the road. The "what if they are stuck together" situation to a potential buyer.

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I have to disagree to a certain extent to some of the stuff mentioned above. The early Contenders were very condition sensitive. You aren't going to find endless BGS 9's. Not unless you consider 250 Brady's endless. And SP Authentic there were only 1250 made. That's a limited quantity. Sure the lesser brands probably had more as far as quantity and are valued less rightfully so.

If you want to talk about mass produced that was Topps in the 80's. There's ten's of thousands of Marino, Elway and Montana's out there floating around. Those cards aren't rare at all. Sure the best conditioned ones might be but those were probably opened 20 years later and put directly in a penny sleeve and top loader just like modern cards.
It seems like you are actually agreeing. If modern wax, like Contenders, was a hard grade right from the box 15 years ago, what makes anyone think they would be in better condition 30 years after that? Modern cards will break down faster than true vintage in a pack.

As for your second point, you are agreeing that the value in true vintage is the means to get high grade. And thats why those boxes are worth so much more now. If you want that Gem Mint Marino, you almost have to take a shot at a sealed box. And that shot costs a lot of money due to the potential payout. Since busting old wax is the primary way to find high grade worthy raw.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:07 PM   #21
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I like 1984 (Elway / Marino)...1986 (Jerry Rice)...granted I think those prices with anyone retired and in the HOF are stabilized now. If I was hoping for ROI, then I would expect 1998 w Manning (IMO, no price hike until HOF call)...2000 w/ Brady...2001 w/ Brees...2004 w/ Eli & Big Ben (not to take away from Rivers)...2005 w/ Rodgers...maybe 2008 w/ Flacco & Ryan... I think everything else is more a less a gamble at this point. At least with these older guys we can expect at LEAST one more ring between them if not more.

Just my $0.02
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:31 PM   #22
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The above is the general problem with modern wax. You might have kept them sealed in a bin for the length you own them. But no way to know if they were sitting in the basement of some distributor for a decade before you got them. Or in the garage of another collector before that.

Anyone who would buy these boxes in the future would have to assume as much on the condition they might be in. Its not like we are talking about cello packs sadly. So that will still play into their value down the road. The "what if they are stuck together" situation to a potential buyer.



It seems like you are actually agreeing. If modern wax, like Contenders, was a hard grade right from the box 15 years ago, what makes anyone think they would be in better condition 30 years after that? Modern cards will break down faster than true vintage in a pack.

As for your second point, you are agreeing that the value in true vintage is the means to get high grade. And thats why those boxes are worth so much more now. If you want that Gem Mint Marino, you almost have to take a shot at a sealed box. And that shot costs a lot of money due to the potential payout. Since busting old wax is the primary way to find high grade worthy raw.
Brady's are and will forever be in top notch graded holders. Every RC has a bunch of examples at the top end and countless 9's. There is no shortage of them, they are just expensive and the value on them will go down.

This was the part i disagree with. I don't think the prices will be going down on Brady cards. His prices are all going up across the board no matter what the brand is. For everyone else that may be the case but for Brady it definitely isn't.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:48 PM   #23
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Brady's are and will forever be in top notch graded holders. Every RC has a bunch of examples at the top end and countless 9's. There is no shortage of them, they are just expensive and the value on them will go down.

This was the part i disagree with. I don't think the prices will be going down on Brady cards. His prices are all going up across the board no matter what the brand is. For everyone else that may be the case but for Brady it definitely isn't.
Ahh, I didn't say that, someone else did. But in all fairness you left this part out of your quoting

"Even if Brady has 10 different rookies that stay at current value, that is not rising and the boxes won't rise unless the potential singles from it are rising....... Contenders, SPA... sure............. but most other items will be worth less in 3 years than they are when he retires."

He said after he retires they would be worth less than they currently are. That's left to be seen. Sometimes out of sight out of mind when a player becomes removed from the game.

Right now, after a 5th Super Bowl (and one for the ages) his key RC's are worth $XXX. Maybe this is the height? I know Randy Moss sold better when he was active. So who knows.
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:03 PM   #24
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Ahh, I didn't say that, someone else did. But in all fairness you left this part out of your quoting

"Even if Brady has 10 different rookies that stay at current value, that is not rising and the boxes won't rise unless the potential singles from it are rising....... Contenders, SPA... sure............. but most other items will be worth less in 3 years than they are when he retires."

He said after he retires they would be worth less than they currently are. That's left to be seen. Sometimes out of sight out of mind when a player becomes removed from the game.

Right now, after a 5th Super Bowl (and one for the ages) his key RC's are worth $XXX. Maybe this is the height? I know Randy Moss sold better when he was active. So who knows.
Moss was kind of an enigma in the hobby...... he is a top 3 all time WR and didn't really have many big time PC collectors. He had a ton of room to grow in my opinion, kind of like Larry Fitzgerald does for the current guys. Moss has exploded because there was room. Brady had some room before this last win...... I don't think exponential jumps would be in the cards long term, although more winning and another SB will facilitate gains...... I don't see SB 6 causing a 2.5-3x increase in his top end items like SB 5 did.

The number of SB's to Brady's credit won't change my general premise on box value though. If he wins 7 SB's.... 3 years after he retires 90 plus percent of his rookies will be less than the day he walked away. If you are looking to invest in some lower end boxes from 00 with the thought he gets number 6 and lower end items are driven up... that's fine... I don't think you could really win much or lose much with that. It's a very safe and stable play
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Old 03-27-2017, 11:06 PM   #25
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Moss was kind of an enigma in the hobby...... he is a top 3 all time WR and didn't really have many big time PC collectors. He had a ton of room to grow in my opinion, kind of like Larry Fitzgerald does for the current guys. Moss has exploded because there was room. Brady had some room before this last win...... I don't think exponential jumps would be in the cards long term, although more winning and another SB will facilitate gains...... I don't see SB 6 causing a 2.5-3x increase in his top end items like SB 5 did.

The number of SB's to Brady's credit won't change my general premise on box value though. If he wins 7 SB's.... 3 years after he retires 90 plus percent of his rookies will be less than the day he walked away. If you are looking to invest in some lower end boxes from 00 with the thought he gets number 6 and lower end items are driven up... that's fine... I don't think you could really win much or lose much with that. It's a very safe and stable play
Correction::: Moss top 2
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