2018 AL MVP race

[jstasyk1121]

Originally Posted by tlschwerz

The three horse race includes Trout and not JD. Yes, Martinez is having a great year, but he only hits. You can try to remove that from the equation, but the voters don't. I'm a huge supporter of the DH rule, but when it comes to awards, it's a specialist scenario and the same reason why a reliever rarely is in the Cy Young discussion. Ramirez, Mookie, and Trout lead the AL in fWAR by a pretty wide margin. It will be one of those three barring a complete falloff from the trio.

Trout has close to no shot to win the MVP this year...WAR will not help him this year...his team is a distant 4th in the division and could fall to last place and it wouldnt be crazy...he will not and should not come close to winning the award this year...

not when other guys are right there in WAR on winning teams and another guy (JD) is killing the ball and also on a winning team(the best team in league by a mile at this point and might win 110+ games...

JD is currently leading the AL in:
Hits
Home Runs
RBIs
SLG
Total Bases
Xtra Base Hits

and also isnt some slouch in WAR...he is at 5.6WAR right now...so himself is going at a 7.5WAR pace or so...sure he will still be behind the other guys...but not like its some atrocious number...7+ is a monster WAR season

oh and he is hitting .333 and 2nd in the AL on top of all that...

there is NO SHOT that Trout wins the 2018 MVP

there is at least some chance that JD wins the 2018 MVP

he can win the Triple Crown which in my opinion would easily get him the award...

he can also just keep hitting monster home runs late in games...stuff like that just sticks out to voters...when down the stretch you just keep see him hitting tying or go-ahead homers...yea that stuff matters...its not a computer voting...its a human who biased or not is emotionally invested in the game...it just doesnt break down WAR like a robot and spit out a ballot

Betts, J.Ram, JD and probably Lindor should all finish ahead of Trout this year...they will all have great seasons...and only 1 will be on a mediocre non-playoff team...2 of them will be right there in WAR and Lindor not far behind at all....and JD will end up trouncing him in traditional stats and have a bunch of BOLD on his stat line for league leader

[Tim]

It's a two-horse race between Betts (winner) and Jose Ramirez (a VERY close second). Trout would have to get en fuego to be in the mix. JD has zero chance unless the others slump. Ramirez could easily take this but Betts is the winner right now.

[moosetequila]

Agree, Fish is fried for this Year, Mook gets the WIN!

[Sportnut08]

Originally Posted by tlschwerz

The three horse race includes Trout and not JD. Yes, Martinez is having a great year, but he only hits. You can try to remove that from the equation, but the voters don't. I'm a huge supporter of the DH rule, but when it comes to awards, it's a specialist scenario and the same reason why a reliever rarely is in the Cy Young discussion. Ramirez, Mookie, and Trout lead the AL in fWAR by a pretty wide margin. It will be one of those three barring a complete falloff from the trio.

I don’t see Trout doing much of anything right now. Not playing provides zero value. How’s that WAR are accumulated earlier in the season helping his team win right now?

[SaveMeTheGum]

What JD has done for the Red Sox this year is hard to measure. Besides the ridiculous numbers he's putting up (can't believe I felt like this was the consolation prize to Stanton), he's brought the entire rest of the lineup up a couple notches. I think he fits the definition of MVP the best, but I also know he probably won't win it because of the number of 5 tool players on that list, so I'll go with Mookie.

[seabass97166]

Ramirez monster night..



.

[NeedChapmans]

No Mookie today or tomorrow; will give Ramirez another day to pad his WAR lead.

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

No Mookie today or tomorrow; will give Ramirez another day to pad his WAR lead.

He's missed too many games at this point I think. It's Ramirez's to lose.

[seabass97166]

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

He's missed too many games at this point I think. It's Ramirez's to lose.

I have a different perspective, I'm holding a 30-1 ticket on Ramirez for MVP
($100 to make $3000), and literally I think I need a miracle finish...like he would need a player of the month surge. Finish with 50 HR/30 SB, something crazy. I just don't think the voters care about Jose Ramirez as much as they do Mookie or JD.

Every poll ever taken has him a distant third.

[mnvikingstwins]

Rooting for JD but I only put $5/90 on him a few months ago and should have put a bit more

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

I have a different perspective, I'm holding a 30-1 ticket on Ramirez for MVP
($100 to make $3000), and literally I think I need a miracle finish...like he would need a player of the month surge. Finish with 50 HR/30 SB, something crazy. I just don't think the voters care about Jose Ramirez as much as they do Mookie or JD.

Every poll ever taken has him a distant third.

A lot can happen before the end of the season. Mookie has already missed 22 games. There have only been 6 times in the last 40 years a player has missed that many games and won MVP.

[seabass97166]

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

A lot can happen before the end of the season. Mookie has already missed 22 games. There have only been 6 times in the last 40 years a player has missed that many games and won MVP.

A lot of time left. I think JD is the favorite at this point. JRAM has to go on a HR barrage!!!

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

A lot of time left. I think JD is the favorite at this point. JRAM has to go on a HR barrage!!!

Well 3 games with a HR in a row is a good start!

[EricTownsend88]

Originally Posted by seabass97166

A lot of time left. I think JD is the favorite at this point. JRAM has to go on a HR barrage!!!

Wait do whaaat??? Ramirez is exactly 1 home run behind Martinez. Ramirez adds elite defense and elite base running to his game something Martinez can't say. Ramirez has him beat by like 2.5 WAR on Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs. Martinez is having a great season but Ramirez is easily a level above him and it's not really close. The one extra home run means that much more or what?? I'm so beyond confused here. If anyone actually wants to look at the numbers seriously it is a flip of the coin between Betts and Ramirez for MVP. Trout and Lindor are behind them and then Martinez rounds out the top 5.

[Sportnut08]

Originally Posted by EricTownsend88

Wait do whaaat??? Ramirez is exactly 1 home run behind Martinez. Ramirez adds elite defense and elite base running to his game something Martinez can't say. Ramirez has him beat by like 2.5 WAR on Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs. Martinez is having a great season but Ramirez is easily a level above him and it's not really close. The one extra home run means that much more or what?? I'm so beyond confused here. If anyone actually wants to look at the numbers seriously it is a flip of the coin between Betts and Ramirez for MVP. Trout and Lindor are behind them and then Martinez rounds out the top 5.

JD is going after the Triple Crown and, more importantly, has a ton of huge late-inning, game-tying or go-ahead hits. There's a lot more to someone's stats than overall slash line or WAR will tell you.

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by Sportnut08

JD is going after the Triple Crown and, more importantly, has a ton of huge late-inning, game-tying or go-ahead hits. There's a lot more to someone's stats than overall slash line or WAR will tell you.

As it stands would you trade Jose Ramirez for JD Martinez straight up?

[EricTownsend88]

Originally Posted by Sportnut08

JD is going after the Triple Crown and, more importantly, has a ton of huge late-inning, game-tying or go-ahead hits. There's a lot more to someone's stats than overall slash line or WAR will tell you.

Oh boy. I am actually embarrassed reading this. Betts and Ramirez are neck to neck in WAR and both could very well finish with two of the top 10-15 seasons in MLB history. Martinez isn't even in the top 10 in WAR for the 2018 season. I mean come on now buddy. I'll tell you what - if anyone can convince me that a DH on pace to finish with 7 WAR should win the MVP over an OF or a 3B who are on pace to finish with 10.5-11 WAR I'll give you my entire collection because that's how silly this is. It was a three horse race between Betts/Ramirez/Trout but with Trout missing time Betts and Ramirez should finish comfortably ahead of him in everything.

This is how it should play out: Ramirez and Betts are 1A/1B - literally flip a coin right now between those two as they are having two of the greatest seasons of all-time. Assuming Trout doesn't miss too much more time he should be 3rd, Lindor 4th, Martinez 5th and Chapman 6th. But it should be pretty clear this is a two horse race right now. I don't really know how much more I could seriously talk about the MVP race if anyone see's otherwise.

[lambeauleap87]

I'm not sure there's a single good argument for JD Martinez, and I like JD. It's a toss-up between Mookie and Jose with Trout still having a chance if he does Trout-like things (or the other two fall off).

By wRC+ (offensive output), JD trails both Trout and Mookie by ten percent compared to league average and is ahead of Jose by just four percent (again, compared to league average). So he's trailing the outfielders and has a slight lead over Ramirez in the hitting category. Nevermind the fact that he's far worse on the basepaths, and you're getting negative/zero defensive value while Ramirez/Betts are elite in both.

Don Baylor is the only person even listed as a DH to have won the MVP, and he played a half season in the outfield when he won. Voters are handing a DH the MVP award, even less so when there are far more deserving candidates. It's a coin-flip between Mookie and J-Ram at this point, and it should be a fun finish.

[EricTownsend88]

Originally Posted by lambeauleap87

It's a coin-flip between Mookie and J-Ram at this point, and it should be a fun finish.

This is correct

[Sportnut08]

Originally Posted by EricTownsend88

Oh boy. I am actually embarrassed reading this. Betts and Ramirez are neck to neck in WAR and both could very well finish with two of the top 10-15 seasons in MLB history. Martinez isn't even in the top 10 in WAR for the 2018 season. I mean come on now buddy. I'll tell you what - if anyone can convince me that a DH on pace to finish with 7 WAR should win the MVP over an OF or a 3B who are on pace to finish with 10.5-11 WAR I'll give you my entire collection because that's how silly this is. It was a three horse race between Betts/Ramirez/Trout but with Trout missing time Betts and Ramirez should finish comfortably ahead of him in everything.

This is how it should play out: Ramirez and Betts are 1A/1B - literally flip a coin right now between those two as they are having two of the greatest seasons of all-time. Assuming Trout doesn't miss too much more time he should be 3rd, Lindor 4th, Martinez 5th and Chapman 6th. But it should be pretty clear this is a two horse race right now. I don't really know how much more I could seriously talk about the MVP race if anyone see's otherwise.

All I’m hearing is “WAR, WAR, WAR.”

[EricTownsend88]

Originally Posted by Sportnut08

All I’m hearing is “WAR, WAR, WAR.”

I'll tell you what if you can convince me J.D. Martinez is better then Mookie Betts or Jose Ramirez I am all ears.

[Sportnut08]

Originally Posted by EricTownsend88

I'll tell you what if you can convince me J.D. Martinez is better then Mookie Betts or Jose Ramirez I am all ears.

I wasn’t trying to do that. I was explaining how JD will get votes. And lots of them.

[hxcmilkshake]

JD and Mookie may actually split votes both playing for BOS, so JRAM gets that benefit.

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[anusinha]

Some guy sitting in the dugout 95% of the game provides a whole lot less value than a guy playing elite level defense. Betts and J-Ram are neck and neck, if J ram can get 40/40, you almost have to give it to him

[EricTownsend88]

Originally Posted by anusinha

Some guy sitting in the dugout 95% of the game provides a whole lot less value than a guy playing elite level defense. Betts and J-Ram are neck and neck, if J ram can get 40/40, you almost have to give it to him

Absolutely correct here. And even with Martinez sitting in the dugout 95% of the time as good of a year as he is having he still is not a better hitter then Betts or Ramirez. Add in the elite defense and what they do on the basepath and it's kind of silly to put Martinez is the same sentence as Ramirez/Betts. Ramirez is actually second in the entire MLB only behind Billy Hamilton in value and efficiency via baserunning. I don't know where Betts ranks off hand but I know he provides a plus value as well. I just have a really hard time taking anyone serious that would say anyone other then Betts or Ramirez is the MVP. I guess maybe you could argue for Trout but that is even a stretch. After looking at the numbers there's no way anyone can sell me on another option then those two and am really confused why Martinez has the second most votes in the poll. Very odd to me to say the least.