2016-17 Spectra Set Analysis

[ProtonPills]

Hi all,

The massive nerd in me decided to do some basic math on the Spectra checklist to work a few things out. As a result I've come up with the below data for this years release. I have the info for every team/player stashed away but it would take up way too much space for one post! I can post the full team/player lists as a reply if you want to see it.

Let me know if anyone finds this sort of stuff interesting and I can consider doing it again for future releases (mid to high end only).

Box Breakdown (On Average):
10 Cards per Box
3 base (1 numbered /99 or less)
3 Jersey/Patch Cards
4 Jersey/Patch Auto Cards

Redemptions (TBC - Please let me know of any others):
Dario Saric
AJ Hammons
Brice Johnson
Skal Labissiere
Jaylen Brown
Dragan Bender

Spectra Set Stats (as per Checklist):
Total #d Cards: 113786
Total # Memorabilia Cards: 43,746 (38.45% of #d Cards)
Total # Memorabilia + Auto Cards: 55,040 (48.37% of #d Cards)
Total # Numbered Base Cards: 15,000 (13.18% of #d Cards)
Total # Cases:
15,000 numbered base cards
➡️ 1 numbered base/box on average
➡️6 boxes per case
➡️15,000 / 6 = 2,500 cases in total
Base Card Print Run:
2,500 Cases
➡️2 base cards per Box on Average
➡️6 boxes per case
➡️12 Cards per Case
➡️2,500 x 12 = 30,000 Base Cards in total
➡️30,000 / 100 Cards in the Set = 300 Base Cards per Player


Top 10 Teams by Total # of Hits (#d Cards)
Toronto Raptors - 6080
Milwaukee Bucks - 5851
Denver Nuggets - 5612
Phoenix Suns - 5353
Sacramento King - 5327
Memphis Grizzlies - 5289
Golden State Warriors - 5168
Cleveland Cavaliers - 5139
Los Angeles Lakers - 5130
Boston Celtics – 4950
Full List

Top 10 Teams % Chance of Hit (#d Card) / Case
Team - % Card - % Mem - % Auto + Mem - % Base
Toronto Raptors - 32.06% - 12.41% - 16.48% - 3.16%
Milwaukee Bucks - 30.85% - 10.16% - 16.74% - 3.95%
Denver Nuggets - 29.59% - 8.91% - 17.52% - 3.16%
Phoenix Suns - 28.23% - 12.14% - 13.71% - 2.37%
Sacramento Kings - 28.09% - 12.59% - 13.92% - 1.58%
Memphis Grizzlies - 27.89% - 10.69% - 14.03% - 3.16%
Golden State Warriors - 27.25% - 8.66% - 15.42% - 3.16%
Cleveland Cavaliers - 27.1% - 12.44% - 10.7% - 3.95%
Los Angeles Lakers - 27.05% - 11.25% - 13.43% - 2.37%
Boston Celtics - 26.1% - 9.04% - 13.89% - 3.16%

Top 10 Rookies by Total # of Hits (#d Cards)
Denzel Valentine - 1933
Malcolm Brogdon - 1843
Thon Maker - 1752
Kay Felder - 1505
Pascal Siakam - 1505
Jakob Poeltl - 1504
Skal Labissiere - 1504
Henry Ellenson - 1504
Wade Baldwin IV - 1504
Brandon Ingram – 1470
Full List

Top 10 Veterans by Total # of Hits (#d Cards)
Devin Booker - 1106
Marc Gasol - 1031
Jabari Parker - 971
Kristaps Porzingis - 958
Andrew Wiggins - 948
Stephen Curry - 941
DeMar DeRozan - 937
Tony Parker - 916
C.J. McCollum - 885
Goran Dragic – 834
Full List

Top 10 Rookies % Chance of Hit (#d Card) / Case
Player - % Card - % Mem - % Auto + Mem - % Base
Denzel Valentine - 10.19% - 1.78% - 8.41% - 0 %
Malcolm Brogdon - 9.72% - 3.56% - 6.15% - 0 %
Thon Maker - 9.24% - 1.57% - 7.67% - 0 %
Kay Felder - 7.94% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Pascal Siakam - 7.94% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Jakob Poeltl - 7.93% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Skal Labissiere - 7.93% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Henry Ellenson - 7.93% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Wade Baldwin IV - 7.93% - 1.78% - 6.15% - 0 %
Brandon Ingram - 7.75% - 3.56% - 4.19% - 0 %

Top 10 Veterans % Chance of Hit (#d Card) / Case
Devin Booker - 5.83% - 3.3% - 1.74% - .79%
Marc Gasol - 5.44% - 3.56% - 1.08% - .79%
Jabari Parker - 5.12% - 3.2% - 1.13% - .79%
Kristaps Porzingis - 5.05% - 1.78% - 2.48% - .79%
Andrew Wiggins - 5.% - 3.56% - .64% - .79%
Stephen Curry - 4.96% - 3.56% - .61% - .79%
DeMar DeRozan - 4.94% - 3.54% - .61% - .79%
Tony Parker - 4.83% - 3.56% - .47% - .79%
C.J. McCollum - 4.67% - 1.7% - 2.18% - .79%
Goran Dragic - 4.4% - 3.% - .61% - .79%

PLEASE NOTE:
The figures presented above are based purely on the number of cards per box on average. The values presented per player and per team are not guaranteed to be reflected in every case, instead they represent the average odds for all cases produced. They do not take into account variations in these numbers or the methods/processes used to package the product. All data presented here has been derived from the Panini checklist for the product and therefore all errors present in the checklists will be present in the figures above. This data is for information only and should not be considered authoritative in any way.

[kingofsnake]

That's pretty interesting stuff, especially for people who do group breaks. Even though Toronto seems to have the most hits - I'd stay away from them. Thanks for sharing.

[ProtonPills]

Originally Posted by kingofsnake

That's pretty interesting stuff, especially for people who do group breaks. Even though Toronto seems to have the most hits - I'd stay away from them. Thanks for sharing.

No worries, it was pretty easy to do

Yeah Toronto has the most hits, but then you look at the checklist and see who it is and you run, run fast...

[almostkinda]

I like your hard work.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[keysersoze4242]

Thanks for the post! This was really interesting and I really hope to see you do this in the future!

[tjforce]

Good stuff OP!.

Any guess on the print run of the base?

[ProtonPills]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Good stuff OP!.

Any guess on the print run of the base?

Thanks! Well there's 2 base per Box on average, 6 boxes per case and 2500 cases = 30,000 cards in total. 100 cards in the set so I'd guess the base is limited to 300 each

[king47sooners]

Nice work OP very cool

[Earvin32]

Nice work. I think I saw a Skal redemption in a group break.

[ProtonPills]

Originally Posted by Earvin32

Nice work. I think I saw a Skal redemption in a group break.

OK nice, thanks. Brice Johnson popped up too

[yiguiri2002]

Dude! I've been working on something similar for past releases. I'm trying to focus more on hits (cards that pay for a case, cards that pay for a box) but I feel like your breakdown is more detailed and player oriented. Great job!

[dwest13cavs]

nice stuff..

but most people do not consider Base cards 'Hits' well i guess unless its Ben simmons

[dwest13cavs]

Originally Posted by ProtonPills

Thanks! Well there's 2 base per Box on average, 6 boxes per case and 2500 cases = 30,000 cards in total. 100 cards in the set so I'd guess the base is limited to 300 each

except for Ben Simmons

[ProtonPills]

Originally Posted by dwest13cavs

except for Ben Simmons

As far as I can tell his base card is still not numbered

[ProtonPills]

Originally Posted by dwest13cavs

nice stuff..

but most people do not consider Base cards 'Hits' well i guess unless its Ben simmons

No I totally agree, but breakers do count a numbered base card as a hit usually...