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Old 08-08-2017, 09:38 AM   #201
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Literally every single name on that list so far, if you hit a /5 parallel and you aren't an idiot and in a rush to sell, will get you over $250. There should be 2 per box. Then move up a parallel and you have 10-15 names on that list that will get you back your buy in. There should be 4 of those per box. Even at the base autograph level, I see at least 7-10 names on that list that will comfortably get you back buy in easily.
So 16 out of 40 should get you a ROI. I see what you're saying where a good amount of breaker buy-ins will do well versus almost everything else.

I know this is only based on the names shown, and adding Ford, Hamill, etc., will increase that ROI percentage. But adding Rose, Colley, etc., will not. I guess that remains to be seen.

I'm doing my best to understand the pros to this set at the cost, I really am. It's hard for me to grasp which is why I'm questioning everything. For a set of this magnitude, I don't think that's unreasonable. I'll leave the "simple numbers" to the big spenders, because I'm obviously not wealthy enough to do maths.
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Old 08-17-2017, 12:44 PM   #202
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John Boyega is confirmed for this set.
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Old 08-17-2017, 02:10 PM   #203
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So 16 out of 40 should get you a ROI. I see what you're saying where a good amount of breaker buy-ins will do well versus almost everything else.

I know this is only based on the names shown, and adding Ford, Hamill, etc., will increase that ROI percentage. But adding Rose, Colley, etc., will not. I guess that remains to be seen.

I'm doing my best to understand the pros to this set at the cost, I really am. It's hard for me to grasp which is why I'm questioning everything. For a set of this magnitude, I don't think that's unreasonable. I'll leave the "simple numbers" to the big spenders, because I'm obviously not wealthy enough to do maths.
Ted, I agree with you in that I'm having a hard time with the numbers / ROI. I can see the argument that an individual box could have a good return, if you play it right. But where I struggle is, will ALL boxes be able to get see that return? I guess it depends on how many are sold direct to collectors (I.e. Never seeing the secondary market), how many are group breaks, and how many are purely for resell. There are 4,000 autographs coming, if half are "big ticket" cards that's 2,000 such cards ... are there seriously enough buyer's out there for that many cards?

I guess only time will tell ...

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Old 08-18-2017, 12:04 AM   #204
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Well, compare this to Steven Stanton for example, his video says he did 700 autos for MW16. Now consider how many signers did that many for the set. That's a lot of autos, in a magnitude of over 10x of this set. I'm hard pressed to think that a run of 100 sets will be flooding the market. Then there is the matter of owning a card from something that we all know is a short run. I am in a few breaks, but I am looking mostly for signers I don't own. There will be tough choices to be made when you put base auto of signer X vs 1/1 of signer Y. I would say every card in the set should be a $200 minimum. Sure people can get a Tim Rose literally anywhere, but how many of the 100 will be out there from this set. There will be a rarity to it - I hope. It all comes down to how many collectors are able to get their hands on these vs. secondary market sellers. Unfortunately, like most popular things, the eBay sellers are quick to swoop down on things to make a buck.



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Ted, I agree with you in that I'm having a hard time with the numbers / ROI. I can see the argument that an individual box could have a good return, if you play it right. But where I struggle is, will ALL boxes be able to get see that return? I guess it depends on how many are sold direct to collectors (I.e. Never seeing the secondary market), how many are group breaks, and how many are purely for resell. There are 4,000 autographs coming, if half are "big ticket" cards that's 2,000 such cards ... are there seriously enough buyer's out there for that many cards?

I guess only time will tell ...

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Old 08-18-2017, 03:14 AM   #205
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Well, compare this to Steven Stanton for example, his video says he did 700 autos for MW16. Now consider how many signers did that many for the set. That's a lot of autos, in a magnitude of over 10x of this set. I'm hard pressed to think that a run of 100 sets will be flooding the market. Then there is the matter of owning a card from something that we all know is a short run. I am in a few breaks, but I am looking mostly for signers I don't own. There will be tough choices to be made when you put base auto of signer X vs 1/1 of signer Y. I would say every card in the set should be a $200 minimum. Sure people can get a Tim Rose literally anywhere, but how many of the 100 will be out there from this set. There will be a rarity to it - I hope. It all comes down to how many collectors are able to get their hands on these vs. secondary market sellers. Unfortunately, like most popular things, the eBay sellers are quick to swoop down on things to make a buck.
The thing is, how much were those autos selling for? $10 at a stretch? Any collector can justify that amount for a card, it makes them more accessible. Far fewer people will drop $200+ on an auto when they can get the same auto for $10. Maybe a few super collectors of a character will buy a Rose or a Quinn for that much, I just don't see there being enough super collectors of all characters if a lot of this hits eBay.

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Old 08-18-2017, 05:50 AM   #206
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Well the context here is 4,000 cards, but the reality is still 100 sales/sets. I guess it does matter how many are being resold, but if you look at may the fourth set, which was limited to something like 1600 sets, there was a lot of turnover for a product like that which was limited. It was readily available to anyone, yet it was still turned over with a high frequency on the bay. This set isn't going to be as easy to get your hands on, I think many who can't afford, or justify the set on the onset would at least like to get their hands on a card to have something which is heavily limited edition.

4,000 cards all in is 1 million bucks, on average buyers are paying $250 per card retail. I'm supposing that this set isn't going to lose value immediately.


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The thing is, how much were those autos selling for? $10 at a stretch? Any collector can justify that amount for a card, it makes them more accessible. Far fewer people will drop $200+ on an auto when they can get the same auto for $10. Maybe a few super collectors of a character will buy a Rose or a Quinn for that much, I just don't see there being enough super collectors of all characters if a lot of this hits eBay.

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Old 08-18-2017, 06:01 AM   #207
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If Topps were doing 2-3 sets a year this would I believe be amazing. The issue is the sheer volume of sets we are having now and also have scheduled up to the end of the year.
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:47 AM   #208
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If Topps were doing 2-3 sets a year this would I believe be amazing. The issue is the sheer volume of sets we are having now and also have scheduled up to the end of the year.
And the foreseeable future. Ridley and Boyega will have autos in 8-10 sets per year for the next 3-4 years at least. They may not have a lot per set, but they will add up pretty quick.
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Old 08-18-2017, 09:22 AM   #209
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I have a bad feeling about this...

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Old 08-18-2017, 02:33 PM   #210
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If Topps were doing 2-3 sets a year this would I believe be amazing. The issue is the sheer volume of sets we are having now and also have scheduled up to the end of the year.
And the fact MW3 releases right around the same time, also on card autos and premium card stock.

Are you telling me Hayden's 1/1 from MW3 will be that much different in price from one of multiple 1/1s from this set? Usually the MW 1/1 has a cool feature like being framed or something whereas these parallels are same card stocks but different colors.

Plus don't people say in the RDJ iron man thread that a pack pulled auto has more perceived value than one bought out or an incentive?

Also, remember topps has 3 colors for the Stellar 1/1 cards, so it's more like 1/3 really. The color border is the only difference.

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Old 10-05-2017, 12:01 PM   #211
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So...is this set still moving forward or what? There hasn't been any release date confirmed besides Q4 2017 and still a lot of signers to announce.

Topps has 4 sets left to close out the year: Stellar, MW3, Tek 3 and TLJ S1, and we are

Blowout's product page has this nice summary of who we know so far.
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:25 PM   #212
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Maybe / hopefully more signers will be announced over the weekend since it is NYCC?
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:54 PM   #213
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Maybe / hopefully more signers will be announced over the weekend since it is NYCC?
I don't think there are any new SW people (that haven't been announced for this set yet) at the event other than Mark Hamill. Peter Serafinowicz as Darth Maul's voice, maybe.

They've got to have this set nailed down by now. For such a high-ticket item, they're really letting it fall by the wayside.

How many here have pre-ordered?
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:56 PM   #214
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Supposedly an announcement is coming "very soon". My guess is either during NYCC or on Monday, which is the date I think the Last Jedi trailer will be shown.
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Old 10-05-2017, 02:59 PM   #215
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I don't think there are any new SW people (that haven't been announced for this set yet) at the event other than Mark Hamill. Peter Serafinowicz as Darth Maul's voice, maybe.

They've got to have this set nailed down by now. For such a high-ticket item, they're really letting it fall by the wayside.

How many here have pre-ordered?
I have 4 boxes ordered. Lots of money tied up in a product I only know about 40% of the content of.
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:19 PM   #216
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I have 4 boxes ordered. Lots of money tied up in a product I only know about 40% of the content of.
Boba and Finn are also confirmed. 50% known 👍🏻
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:29 PM   #217
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I have a sinking feeling that Ford will not be in this product. They would've announced it by now. Why hide your #1 selling point beyond the sales window for this set? Unless, of course, he's not in it. That'll kill this product if he's not
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:34 PM   #218
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What's the chances of having John Williams in this set? Is that even a possibility?
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:49 PM   #219
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I have a sinking feeling that Ford will not be in this product. They would've announced it by now. Why hide your #1 selling point beyond the sales window for this set? Unless, of course, he's not in it. That'll kill this product if he's not
Sales window closed and the product sold out. So withholding him doesn't matter. They don't need to raise any more awareness for the set, its sold out.
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Old 10-05-2017, 03:51 PM   #220
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They are probably just waiting for him to sign. But you don't make a product like this without him. He's in there.
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Old 10-05-2017, 05:22 PM   #221
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They are probably just waiting for him to sign. But you don't make a product like this without him. He's in there.
Topps waiting for someone to sign, how reassuring.
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Old 10-05-2017, 06:48 PM   #222
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Topps waiting for someone to sign, how reassuring.
A redemption in a $10K box? Never say never!
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Old 10-05-2017, 06:52 PM   #223
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A redemption in a $10K box? Never say never!
Redemptions in expensive products are common, not this expensive but flawless, the cup, exquisite, they all had redemptions. My concern is what happens if the card doesn’t get made. Knock on wood Harrison Ford isn’t that old but he’s crashed two airplanes. Sometimes crap happens. If you’re stuck holding the 1/1 gold ford auto redemption what’s the replacement? A new Harley?
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Old 10-05-2017, 11:11 PM   #224
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Redemptions in expensive products are common, not this expensive but flawless, the cup, exquisite, they all had redemptions. My concern is what happens if the card doesn’t get made. Knock on wood Harrison Ford isn’t that old but he’s crashed two airplanes. Sometimes crap happens. If you’re stuck holding the 1/1 gold ford auto redemption what’s the replacement? A new Harley?
Not that its that big a deal, but Flawless never had redemptions.
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Old 10-05-2017, 11:15 PM   #225
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Not that its that big a deal, but Flawless never had redemptions.
Whoops, for some reason I thought it did. Here’s to hoping this doesn’t either.
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