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Old 09-13-2018, 09:55 PM   #51
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I agree with this. You can have a scrub NBA guy like Trey Burke have some 30 point games and his cards start to light up a bit. Commons suddenly start to move and even if it's a temporary shift, it still creates some movement and the sense that these players can become something if they have a chance. Same in Baseball. A journeyman in the minors like Arcia for the Angels gets called up...is almost 30...and he hits a bunch of home runs to start his late bloomer career and suddenly his cards are moving. It's the movement of those lower tier prospects that is healthy for the hobby and all it takes is a 30-point game or a 2-3 home run game to spark interest. But there's precious little some of these defensive players and linemen can do to ever be worth anything, and that creates a ton of disposable cards and it limits the pool of worthy investments. Stats are very important and at the end of the day, yards and touchdowns are easier to digest like home runs and Points and assists
I go to an LCS that has big $2 and $1. Ive been going for a while and these boxes have the same lineman/safety/WR autos of guys who probably arent even in football anymore. There's hardly any baseball or basketball because as soon as they go in the boxes they're gone while these football cards will never be purchased.

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Old 09-13-2018, 10:24 PM   #52
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#1 - Frank Gore is a Hall of Famer. This is just for you, just because.

#2 - But joking aside, I would disagree that there are 2-3 releases anyone cares about in football. Yes contenders and NT are the top but overproduction means marginal stars who also get 5000 cards a year go in the trash, but people do buy these cards. The length of career + overproduction means the scarcity to importance ratio in the history of a team is VERY different than baseball. Even in basketball a role player can play 15 years easy, especially if they can shoot without relying on athleticism. So they remain important. The prospect-hunting lottery in baseball isn't in football, the longtime careers aren't like in basketball. Those can drive sales.

Football needs less product, or more variation in subjects and release themes. I would argue a late in the release year "high number" set would outsell some of the BS "contract filling releases" Panini feels compelled to make. Or - like the panini college sets that were school specific - make me all-time 49ers-only blaster boxes or hobby release with all time 49ers (or Steelers, Cowboys, Pats) checklists, fan favorites, etc? I will buy that by the ton. The problem is Football collecting in fundamentally different than other sports, and the new junk wax era hurts it. Obsidian and Vertex? Same release. Overproduced.
1.... lmfao, hilarious

2. Yea I can see your point. The fundamental difference in collecting each of the sports makes a topic like this hard to quantify. I guess for me Iím not worried about marginal players or even semi stars. If the question is why is football not worth as much as x.. I immediately go to the top. Why is bowman chrome baseball worth more than national treasure; why is heritage worth more than contenders? To me overall that makes baseball higher priced. I just feel like the people who dive into select, certified, whatever arenít drug cling the market; so although the products arenít useless... I donít think they drive the overall view of the market in a whole

3. And to touch on gore again; I can appreciate accumulation in a league where staying healthy is impossible; and at that position. I actually like gore a lot. I just struggle with there being a low peak
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:38 PM   #53
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I love the fact that for the most part anyone can really collect football cards.

As an example you can buy a 57 Unitas psa 1.5 or so for less than $200....or you can still buy Brady non high end rookies for very little raw.....CRAZY

It's very possible that at some point football continues to gain popularity in the collecting world and the above may not be the case....might take 50 years but....

If not, u can still enjoy watching football and collecting without forking out 4K for a 51 Mantle.....I'm glad I primarily like football in this regard.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:33 PM   #54
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Are people really wondering why baseball and basketball outsell football by a massive margin? Football is not a popular sport overseas. No one plays it outside of the US with any merit. Baseball is played all over the world. Asia, South America, Central America. Obviously Basketball dominates Europe. The answer is no one gives a flying F about American football outside of the USA.


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Old 09-13-2018, 11:53 PM   #55
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Oh ...and anyone who asserts Frank Gore isnít a lock for the Hall is crazy


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Old 09-14-2018, 01:10 AM   #56
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Oh ...and anyone who asserts Frank Gore isnít a lock for the Hall is crazy


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Old 09-14-2018, 01:15 AM   #57
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I love the fact that for the most part anyone can really collect football cards.

As an example you can buy a 57 Unitas psa 1.5 or so for less than $200....or you can still buy Brady non high end rookies for very little raw.....CRAZY

It's very possible that at some point football continues to gain popularity in the collecting world and the above may not be the case....might take 50 years but....

If not, u can still enjoy watching football and collecting without forking out 4K for a 51 Mantle.....I'm glad I primarily like football in this regard.
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:04 AM   #58
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injuries.

tons of product.

no NFL equivalent for the 1st Bowman Chrome Auto.
This. I wish there were like 3 main types of cards to collect for football. They pump out so much garbage, it really makes it hard to collect a specific type. I focus on NT, Contenders, and Prizm.
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:13 AM   #59
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Overproduction goes all of the way across the board, but the MLB and NBA are both much more equipped to handle it.

MLB has 2 markets - the superstars and the prospects. They can easily split some of their products to focus on both of these markets. Overproduction is still a thing, but it's more limited. Plus, they have a global market.

NBA is just as overproduced as NFL, but they have such a large global market that everyone is still buying. I think I saw last year that even the top rookies signed 10000+ autographs (could be really wrong about this) but the prices maintain their levels because there's always someone in the market with how large it is.

NFL just doesn't have either of those things. It's a market limited almost exclusively to the US, and the same people appear in every product because there is no minor league system.

You can blame overproduction on the companies all you want but this is a product of Players' Association greed. The more products there are, the more money goes in their players' pockets. I can tell you for sure that none of these companies want to produce as many products as they are, but in order to stay in the game, they have to sign the exclusive which comes with the product floor.
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:23 AM   #60
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Constant rule changes makes it difficult to compare eras.

The Great RB investing of 2001-2006 and the 2006 Draft Class destroyed football for investing. Brady's jumps finally brought people back, along with the rule changes making quarterbacks the "go to."

Great players do not make great teams. Very rarely in football does one person create a great team. QB's CAN do this.

The BIGGEST thing is multi-generation collecting. If an adult can purchase the player's cards at the "first peak" and someone can grow up watching a player play and want to collect them when older, a giant spike occurs. You'll have two groups of people going for the same cards. In Brady's case, with an 18 year NFL career, and multiple generations being able to see him at his best, you're going to see 3-4 spikes. He has shown 3 so far. Two of which are from performance spikes, in my opinion.
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:57 AM   #61
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One word sums it up.

PANINI

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Old 09-14-2018, 09:48 AM   #62
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Football is tough because while there are 53 players, only the skill positions sell. Occasionally you'll find the flashy defensive player that can sustain some sales, but for the most part, even the best stay relatively low. There's just not enough impact on a play-to-play basis for a lot of these positions to sell. You're looking at the ones that touch the ball most often and put up the stats - QB, RB, and WR. So many of these players end up flaming out that it's a tough market.

Overproduction certainly factors in but football is just an inherently different sport.
It took 42 posts to see the answer that I believe is correct. QB's, RB's, and to a lesser extent WR's are collected in football. Very few collect linemen or defensive players.
I tend to believe the hobby is driven by player collectors and there just aren't that many people who player collect the "boring" position players.

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Old 09-14-2018, 10:01 AM   #63
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It has deteriorated in recent years IMO. I had a very good year with FB in 2010--at the time, it was a good draft class, there were some really interesting products out, and a lot of interest.

As mentioned, there are some systemic issues with the sport that will limit the collectibility versus baseball--to me the biggest is new names don't get time to develop before they are judged as good or bad. So right away most of the rookie football cards are considered crap. You may get a couple that jump out of that bucket with a few good games, but how often have those guys retained value?

If you take the flagship baseball products out of the equation that have multi-generational collectors and remove the prospect products, is it really that much different from football value-wise? Maybe on the top-end, but baseball products have a lot of low-value autos and relic cards just like football. I think baseball reveres the Rookie Card more, but with the RC shield being abused by Topps I think that may matter less with younger collectors.

Or maybe I'm just full of it
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Old 09-14-2018, 10:34 AM   #64
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I used to collect football. Stopped in the last 5 years though.

Main reasons? Stars tend to flame out after a couple of years. Very few long-lasting big name players anymore.

Not saying the NFL doesn't have stars, there are always a few huge names every year. But very few recent players that stay at a peak performance for more than a 2-3 year period.

Also, players tend to switch teams more. Hard to keep an interesting team PC when most guys aren't there for long. I look at my collection of rookies and "stars" that play for one or two years and have no attachment to them.

Lastly, my team left my city. So my interest dropped quite a bit.

Panini or Topps, it doesn't matter. Star power sells. Name more than 5 active players who were superstars 5 years ago and still are today.
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Old 09-14-2018, 10:46 AM   #65
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#1 reason in my opinion is the massive rules changes that greatly encouraged the passing game. While on one hand it has made the game more fun to watch, it has devalued the the running back and defense so much that the stars on defense and running backs have been greatly devalued in the hobby because they are just not that important on the field anymore. A great running back or Defensive lineman were pivotal when games were constantly under 20 points for each team. Now its a free for all, with incredibly annoying DIVA wide receivers being the most important non-quarterbacks on the field.

The hobby is QBs and thats it. That and for some bizarre reason, the hobby can only support the top 3-5 QBs at all, the rest are after thoughts.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:05 AM   #66
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Just read this entire thread, here is my critique of answers so far:

1. Panini is the problem!: Basketball has just Panini, they do just fine

2. Overproduction: Again, tons of crap basketball products, yet prices are just fine

3. There's no key rookie set: Are we forgetting Contenders? Although I believe Panini has screwed this set up recently, one could argue that this is more of a key rookie set than anything basketball has

4. Injuries: Yes, I think this is a problem. When you only get to see your favorite player play 16-20 times a year and they get dinged and miss a month, it really cuts down their exposure

5. Players wear helmets: Yes, there is something to this. It cuts down on marketability and awareness of players

6. Bad recent crop of QBs: Ehh, I'll admit that since Rodgers there hasn't been one Qb who has stood out as an undeniable next all time great and hobby favorite (like a Steph Curry, Mike Trout, etc), but then again, it takes time in football and a guy won't get there until he does.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:47 AM   #67
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It took 42 posts to see the answer that I believe is correct. QB's, RB's, and to a lesser extent WR's are collected in football. Very few collect linemen or defensive players.
I tend to believe the hobby is driven by player collectors and there just aren't that many people who player collect the "boring" position players.

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Yep it's just too hard. In any other sport, almost every single member of the team can take over the game by themselves (for the most part). In baseball, a guy can get 3 home runs or throw a no hitter and there becomes a market. In basketball, a bench player can come in and drop 40 points in a spot start and there becomes a market.

In football, that's limited mostly to the skill positions. A defensive player can come away with 4 sacks but it's just not going to increase his market exponentially. I mean, Marshon Lattimore had a killer rookie season that led to DROY, Pro Bowl, and future star status, and you can get most of his stuff for under $10. Great player but it's just hard for a guy like that to impact the game enough individually to create value. Football is a team sport where only a few positions can truly standout as individual greatness.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:09 PM   #68
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The cards just arenít as good. I buy colts on card only, so very little to choose from. Just much lower quality for football than other sports and non sports imo.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:24 PM   #69
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I still want to know if NFL cards are so unpopular why are there 946 Deshaun Watson RC autos? Why would they produce so many friggin NFL cards if there was no demand for them? In comparison, there were only 308 Donovan Mitchell RC autos. The logic of that just doesn't coincide with the lack of popularity theory.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:32 PM   #70
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I still want to know if NFL cards are so unpopular why are there 946 Deshaun Watson RC autos? Why would they produce so many friggin NFL cards if there was no demand for them? In comparison, there were only 308 Donovan Mitchell RC autos. The logic of that just doesn't coincide with the lack of popularity theory.
part of the licensing agreement minimum number of products
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:34 PM   #71
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part of the licensing agreement minimum number of products
Why would the agreement require such a ridiculous amount of cards produced for something that has such little demand? Wouldn't that mean they lose money?
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:35 PM   #72
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Why would the agreement require such a ridiculous amount of cards produced for something that has such little demand? Wouldn't that mean they lose money?
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:50 PM   #73
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Why would the agreement require such a ridiculous amount of cards produced for something that has such little demand? Wouldn't that mean they lose money?
Wouldn't the NFL still make money? I would think they agreement is set up on a per product fee and then to keep the license in general the company must produce so many products per year. So the NFL gets paid regardless if Panini wants to keep the license.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:53 PM   #74
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Wouldn't the NFL still make money? I would think they agreement is set up on a per product fee and then to keep the license in general the company must produce so many products per year. So the NFL gets paid regardless if Panini wants to keep the license.
and the NFLPA.

exactly

they could not charge panini the same amount if they said panini could only make 10 releases a year. i believe the agreement is for a minimum of around 30.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:54 PM   #75
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actually set up on minimum, not per product
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