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View Poll Results: Would you rather buy/pull a blue or green chrome prospect auto?
Blue 69 76.67%
Green 17 18.89%
At this point they are about the same and have no preference 4 4.44%
Voters: 90. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-24-2017, 04:51 PM   #26
jmscoggin
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Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum View Post
I consider color refractors the same as I consider serial number 1/x, or x/x, or Jersey#/x. It doesn't carry any extra value to me, but I do recognize that it does in the market and for that reason, I'd rather pull a higher value one. As a collector though, if it's for my PC, I'd just as soon get the base since it's a lot less expensive.
Bingo. Also, you need to teach me to write like this, you said what I said but with a TON less words. Even I hate my walls of text.
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Old 03-24-2017, 05:46 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by jmscoggin View Post
Lest you think I'm destroying my own prediction. I think that the devaluing will come on a player by player basis. As a player retires and fades off into the sunset, less and less people hold an interest in them. Plenty of people fight over Buster Posey stuff right now but 30 years from now, when he is long since retired, that will likely not be the case. You may still get people that want him in their PC but do you think they will pony up for a blue, gold or red when they can buy a base auto for a fraction of the price? I don't.

In summary, I think we're both right. The near future will have people blindly chasing color but I maintain, I wouldn't want to be holding the bag when people stop chasing that player in colors, be it tomorrow or 20 years from now.
I believe what you say will be true for players whose value does not hold water long-term. If you're not a hall of fame player, or have a cult following, you're a guy whose color auto value will plummet. But I don't believe that will happen for the greats; because in 120 years of baseball, we have 300 greats and are adding a couple new every year.

Players w/ color autos on that list will be just fine. Players not on that list will lose value, base - color.
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Old 03-24-2017, 05:55 PM   #28
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I collect Blue Jays cards...the Rainman in me only wants the cards I buy to be Chrome Blue autos. After that, blue wins again because of the blue ink the cards are signed in.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:09 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I believe what you say will be true for players whose value does not hold water long-term. If you're not a hall of fame player, or have a cult following, you're a guy whose color auto value will plummet. But I don't believe that will happen for the greats; because in 120 years of baseball, we have 300 greats and are adding a couple new every year.

Players w/ color autos on that list will be just fine. Players not on that list will lose value, base - color.
That's the thing though, there is no debate that Posey has a cult following and there is debate but he will most probably be a HOF'er, that is precisely why I picked him for my example. As such, do you think his blue autos will be more expensive than his base autos 30 years from now? Significantly so?

You're right, transcendent players like Trout buck all trends, that is why I did not use him as my example. Out of the "300" current greats, how many of them are of the level of which you refer? I'd argue that it is less than 20 and that is an extremely generous number. Like I mentioned above with my Dimaggio purchase, what card it was on is irrelevant, his prices are remarkably consistent whether on a newspaper, card, picture or check. I think the same will happen to 99.9% of all players 30 + years after they retire.

Of course I won't own any color and you'll have long since sold yours, so none of this matters, except the fun of conversation.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:40 PM   #30
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There is most likely going to be someone trying to put together a complete /99 set that missed that auto early on or started the set years later.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:46 PM   #31
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Depends on player and team. I think some green detractors look better on certain teams and vice versa
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Old 03-24-2017, 07:42 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmscoggin View Post
That's the thing though, there is no debate that Posey has a cult following and there is debate but he will most probably be a HOF'er, that is precisely why I picked him for my example. As such, do you think his blue autos will be more expensive than his base autos 30 years from now? Significantly so?

You're right, transcendent players like Trout buck all trends, that is why I did not use him as my example. Out of the "300" current greats, how many of them are of the level of which you refer? I'd argue that it is less than 20 and that is an extremely generous number. Like I mentioned above with my Dimaggio purchase, what card it was on is irrelevant, his prices are remarkably consistent whether on a newspaper, card, picture or check. I think the same will happen to 99.9% of all players 30 + years after they retire.

Of course I won't own any color and you'll have long since sold yours, so none of this matters, except the fun of conversation.
I think all 300 fit the bill to be quite honest. I think the wall you're hitting is because the older generation that is interested in many Hall of Fame players, never experienced color chrome autos. They collect the RC or the auto (in ball, bat, card form, whatever) because that's what they knew growing up and that's what is available.

This generation knows the chrome color auto. So when Player X retires, already has a high dollar chrome RC auto and is put into the hall of fame, I believe this generation will continue to appreciate the color chrome auto, because it's been a part of their collecting years.

In the same way an auto of Kris Bryant on a check would likely not hold long-term value now, a color auto would. The reverse could be said for Dimmagio; we have moved away from one kind of valuable collectible, onto the next. Color autos, I believe, is that change. And perhaps down the road, for the next generation of collectors, Topps and others find another way to add value to the collecting world. But when that happens, it doesn't mean color auto value disappears (just like the cut auto value of the previous generation)
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Old 03-24-2017, 08:33 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
I think all 300 fit the bill to be quite honest.
I think equating all 300 HOF'ers is like saying Trout and Chi Chi Gonzalez are the same just because they are both MLB players. I mostly typed that because I like saying Chi Chi Gonzalez. I miss me some Shigetoshi Hasegawa.

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Originally Posted by NeedChapmans View Post
This generation knows the chrome color auto. So when Player X retires, already has a high dollar chrome RC auto and is put into the hall of fame, I believe this generation will continue to appreciate the color chrome auto, because it's been a part of their collecting years.
This is a great point and a very realistic possibility. If it holds true, it would blow my entire theory out of the water.

Then again, 20 years ago we would have had this conversation and agreed the RC would stay king yet we both now know that didn't happen. For all we know, cardboard will become worthless and digital cards will be what is worth money. Sound stupid? Yep, but again, 20 years ago we would have said the same thing about minor league cards usurping RC's.
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