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View Poll Results: Who will be a bust?
Byron Buxton 27 11.74%
Xander Bogaerts 30 13.04%
Oscar Taveras 35 15.22%
Kris Bryant 31 13.48%
Miguel Sano 68 29.57%
Javier Baez 39 16.96%
Voters: 230. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-03-2014, 01:39 PM   #51
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Sano's swing is too big.
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Old 02-03-2014, 02:35 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by chiefs View Post
Define "bust", because to me if you make it to the big leagues you are not a bust. I think everyone of these guys will start on an everyday basis for a substantial period of time, but they just may not all be first ballot HOFers. The Poll question should be refined to "Which player will not live up to there prospect hype?" or "Which player's cards will lose the most value?" or something like that.
What I mean by "bust" is a player that does not live up to their potential. All these guys are considered game changing players. I'm wondering, of these players, who will be out of the game, back in the minors, or a back-up player in 5 years? All of these scenarios would be concidered to be a bust. I didn't think the question was that difficult to understand. I guess it was. My bad.


I didn't want to use the term "hype" because very few players ever live up to their hype.
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:48 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by bulljh View Post
What I mean by "bust" is a player that does not live up to their potential. All these guys are considered game changing players. I'm wondering, of these players, who will be out of the game, back in the minors, or a back-up player in 5 years? All of these scenarios would be concidered to be a bust. I didn't think the question was that difficult to understand. I guess it was. My bad.


I didn't want to use the term "hype" because very few players ever live up to their hype.
Buxton is ranked #1 and I don't think that he will live up to the #1 prospect this year Someone is going to out shine him this year. As for not being a smartass, I think Oscar will be the "biggest bust".
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:56 PM   #54
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Buxton is ranked #1 and I don't think that he will live up to the #1 prospect this year Someone is going to out shine him this year. As for not being a smartass, I think Oscar will be the "biggest bust".
I felt the same way about Profar being the top prospect last year.

I'm curious why you think Taveras will a bust.
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Old 02-03-2014, 04:31 PM   #55
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Prospectors and the people who create the Top 100 lists are too focused on "what have you done for me lately". If a prospect slips, or heaven forbid gets injured, for a couple months then that automatically means they're a bust.
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:17 PM   #56
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I felt the same way about Profar being the top prospect last year.

I'm curious why you think Taveras will a bust.
I see the other being able to be called up and stay with good playing time and impact more than him. oscar had an injured ankle plus there is peter bourjos now. If he is called up, he won't get consistent time to impact enough and will be seen as more of a bust then others. If we are talking bust as in card prices his will drop the most.
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:33 PM   #57
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Great points. Look at Jason Heyward. When he's healthy, he's an above average RF but not one of the top 10 players in the MLB like many thought he'd be. Or look at Strasburg, he gets injured and goes from the second-coming to a whipping boy. Even Harper is selling far below what he was this time last year because of an above average but not spectacular season. This is why I avoid prospecting for profit. I buy Bowman because I enjoy looking back at my cards to see what prospects made it and didn't make it. It's fun, but there are many better investments out there that have better return odds if you're looking at it as a financial investment.
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exactly , I guess I don't understand or see the hype .
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For me its Buxton and not because he will totally bust. He's being built up to be some superstar but I think in the end he'll end up being an above average player with a decent all around skill set. Just not the elite player he's being touted to be.
It's very rare for any player to become "elite" in the majors...that is why you sell them while they are still in the minors . 95% or more of prospects sell for more when they have completed successful High A and AA seasons than after 2 years of mlb service time. There are exceptions of course but when you look back the percentage it has to be very, very low. Take the money and run on most of these guys in ST and maybe keep a rare card or two of each. I will be taking my profits on Bogaerts, Taijuan, Sano, etc and buying other guys lower down in the minors. If I miss out on a "Jofer" or Trout then so be it. I won't be missing out on profit.
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:11 PM   #58
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For the record, the intent of this thread was to actually talk about these players and thier skills and not about there card values and when you should sell.
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:29 PM   #59
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I'm going off the board with Carlos Correa, I see him being good. I just don't see the power coming, while a league average player is by no means a bust, I'd say him.
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:33 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by ctbinvestments View Post
See Below
It's very rare for any player to become "elite" in the majors...that is why you sell them while they are still in the minors . 95% or more of prospects sell for more when they have completed successful High A and AA seasons than after 2 years of mlb service time. There are exceptions of course but when you look back the percentage it has to be very, very low. Take the money and run on most of these guys in ST and maybe keep a rare card or two of each. I will be taking my profits on Bogaerts, Taijuan, Sano, etc and buying other guys lower down in the minors. If I miss out on a "Jofer" or Trout then so be it. I won't be missing out on profit.
IMHO, there are 2 kinds of busts -Money busts and perceived ability busts. As CTB said very few retain monetary value for a long time. Miguel Cabrera seems to defy the odds that way. I saw a Joe Mauer Gold auto go for $650.00 completed section. To me that seems like a huge steal. Sad part is it probably isn't. Pujols couldnt hold his prices. The list goes on and on...

Many players "bust" due to injuries. These are the guys who are high up on prospect lists, but never hit their peak or make the majors even. Jason Heyward? I have never owned any of his cards, but there is a small voice in my head that he has one MVP season in him. Some never make any adjustments from year to year and never get any better.

For the people who think Profar is a bust, I don't think they understood who he was gonna be. I heard very good defender but not Andrelton Simmons.
I heard very good hitter, but not the next Jeter, Ripken, or Arod.
I heard quick will steal a good amount of bases, but he is not even close to being Billy Hamilton. Nothing will stand out, but he is gonna be a very good baseball player. Those guys are a dime a dozen in the baseball card world. Yet, teams will want this guy on their team because he will help teams win games and championships. Baseball America could care less about Profar's card prices. So many guys get the hype so few realize the what the fans think they should be.
So when people ask about busts, there are so many ways to bust.
To me the biggest bust is a guy like Brien Taylor. He had the world and gave it away!
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:45 PM   #61
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I see the other being able to be called up and stay with good playing time and impact more than him. oscar had an injured ankle plus there is peter bourjos now. If he is called up, he won't get consistent time to impact enough and will be seen as more of a bust then others. If we are talking bust as in card prices his will drop the most.
Oscar is a way better fit in RF than he is in CF. Think more of Allen Craig moving to first and Matt Adams as trade bait or backup/PH. He won't be up at the first of the year like most prospects because of financial reasons. Oscar plays well, he will play.
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:46 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by wwejhardyrox View Post
I'm going off the board with Carlos Correa, I see him being good. I just don't see the power coming, while a league average player is by no means a bust, I'd say him.
The reason I didn't included him is that I felt these 6 are on the cusp of hitting the big leagues whereas Correa is not. I have a feeling that if he were added, he might have most of the votes also.
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Old 02-03-2014, 06:51 PM   #63
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I'm going off the board with Carlos Correa, I see him being good. I just don't see the power coming, while a league average player is by no means a bust, I'd say him.
That is why I love talking and not arguing prospects. We won't know for a while, but I see him as every bit as good as Machado or even better.
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Old 02-03-2014, 07:23 PM   #64
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That is why I love talking and not arguing prospects. We won't know for a while, but I see him as every bit as good as Machado or even better.
at least we can agree on Greg Bird being good (though I'm a Sox fan so I can't stand the Yankees)
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Old 02-18-2016, 02:52 AM   #65
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Well it's been a little over 2 years since I made this thread. A lot has changed since I made this, primarily Taveras. It's still a little early to tell who will bomb, though it was fun reading back through some of the responces.
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Old 02-18-2016, 08:51 AM   #66
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I saw Tavares name on the poll and was like what the..... Then realized this was from 2014 lol
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Old 02-18-2016, 09:52 AM   #67
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Well it's been a little over 2 years since I made this thread. A lot has changed since I made this, primarily Taveras. It's still a little early to tell who will bomb, though it was fun reading back through some of the responces.
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The cubs or going to need more the bryant and baez to be contenders.
Yeah like this one. ^^^
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Old 02-18-2016, 09:57 AM   #68
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Define "bust", because to me if you make it to the big leagues you are not a bust. I think everyone of these guys will start on an everyday basis for a substantial period of time, but they just may not all be first ballot HOFers. The Poll question should be refined to "Which player will not live up to there prospect hype?" or "Which player's cards will lose the most value?" or something like that.
As we're in a baseball card forum, "bust" refers to a player's cards, not the player's MLB performance. If a card's value were actually based on MLB performance, prospect cards would have no value before prospects broke into the MLB, right?

So, a bust = decline in card value and interest.
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Old 02-18-2016, 10:43 AM   #69
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I guessed Oscar, I can see the future!
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:54 PM   #70
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I guessed Bryant. Still sticking with that pick.
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Old 02-18-2016, 02:22 PM   #71
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I feel kind of dumb voting for Sano... But the K rate is still concerning...

However it is not nearly as concerning as Baez's K rate, although he made major improvements in the minors last year and did better in a small sample size in the MLB.

I do feel vindicated in my defense of Bogaerts, though. I think he is the most sure thing out of all of them, and hopefully the power stroke comes. I'd like to see him be a bit more patient, but a lot to like about a guy who doesn't whiff often at 23.

I think the jury is still out on most of them, obviously nobody foresaw tragedy of OT.
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Old 02-18-2016, 03:51 PM   #72
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It's too early to make a call on just about anybody on this list except for Bogaerts, while discounting the obvious tragedy. It doesn't look like Bryant will be a bust though, I regret not voting for Baez instead. I'm surprised by the amount of votes Sano racked up.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:31 PM   #73
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Back in 2014, Sano was a popular choice since he would be out the whole year due to injury. Baez needs to probably find a new organization and have a rebirth to not be considered a bust.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:52 PM   #74
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sanos age and power overshadow his terrible strike zone judgement.
his strike zone judgment isn't all that bad with a 25.8% O-Swing rate, he swings and missed a lot with a low contact %. His average ball off the bat was one of the highest in baseball so he could stop trying to hit HR's every at bat and improve his contact rate (but what's the fun in that)
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