The economy of Basketball Cards: Lets talk Buys and Sells

[jjohnson814]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

That's exactly what we're talking about.

You named 2 iconic players who've had some of their key cards appreciate in value.

I can name 1000 more that lost all of their value. You realize that 99.9% of ALL sports cards lose most if not all of their value within 5 years. Of course you can find outliers but that doesn't mean that because there are a couple examples of players appreciating in value it's a good investment.

If someone gave you a mystery box and said there is a 99.9% chance this asset will depreciate to almost nothing within 5 years why on earth would you consider that a good investment???

I cannot believe you really think the trends in sports cards are anything like the stock market. That is so far from reality that it's really not even worth discussing if you truly believe that.

Stocks will obviously fluctuate in value and established blue chip companies may lose money over a year or even 2 but I'll bet you that in 5-10 years you'd be hardpressed to find something that didn't appreciate.

But you're assuming someone would randomly choose a player and card to invest in when we know what players you should invest in long term. I can greatly increase my odds from 0.1% if I choose Jordan, LeBron, Kobe, Will, etc. We even know what cards of those players that you should generally target if investing is your goal (rookies, low print, etc).

If I was investing my money I wouldnt choose a mystery box. I would choose proven players.

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[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by jjohnson814

But you're assuming someone would randomly choose a player and card to invest in when we know what players you should invest in long term. I can greatly increase my odds from 0.1% if I choose Jordan, LeBron, Kobe, Will, etc. We even know what cards of those players that you should generally target if investing is your goal (rookies, low print, etc).

If I was investing my money I wouldnt choose a mystery box. I would choose proven players.

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Yeah... I feel like there’s a disconnect somewhere. We know that certain players and sets appreciate quite well. All of the cards I can’t afford on eBay are proof of this. If I’m buying LBJ or Curry today, why would these cards go down to next to nothing in the long run? I’m talking the high end, Prizm silvers, Chrome refractors, other sought after inserts/parallels like Galactics, Kaboom, etc. Because if I can get these same cards for less in the future, by all means, I will stop collecting and just wait until that stuff is dirt cheap. I don’t see it going that way, though.

[mc1]

Sealed boxes/cases can be a decent investment. If you think boxes are overpriced at release just wait some years for some of those to actually increase in price. Like double, triple or quadruple in price! That’s even if the possible contents inside the boxes are actually selling for less than they were in the past!! Too much of a hassle though with storage, shipping and handling.

I’ve sold some boxes in other sports and non-sports for over $100 and I felt a little dirty knowing if the buyer opened the box they might get $15-20 worth of cards. I figure they might collect boxes, they aren’t looking to sell the singles and maybe the nostalgia is what they are really paying for.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by jjohnson814

But you're assuming someone would randomly choose a player and card to invest in when we know what players you should invest in long term. I can greatly increase my odds from 0.1% if I choose Jordan, LeBron, Kobe, Will, etc. We even know what cards of those players that you should generally target if investing is your goal (rookies, low print, etc).

If I was investing my money I wouldnt choose a mystery box. I would choose proven players.

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Fwiw when I first addressed this I mentioned that the only investable section of the card market is super high end and high grade vintage but only a very small percentage of people in the market have an opportunity to invest in that stuff.

I think it is fair to make a blanket statement that overall, cards are a poor investment. Like I said, there are obviously exceptions to every rule. Not to mention the heavy manipulation of the high end market which is an entirely different conversation to have.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by jjohnson814

But you're assuming someone would randomly choose a player and card to invest in when we know what players you should invest in long term. I can greatly increase my odds from 0.1% if I choose Jordan, LeBron, Kobe, Will, etc. We even know what cards of those players that you should generally target if investing is your goal (rookies, low print, etc).

If I was investing my money I wouldnt choose a mystery box. I would choose proven players.

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Who is this Will guy and what do you know?

[PKIPP]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Who is this Will guy and what do you know?

He was the star of a very popular 1990's sitcom. Some call him the Fresh Prizm

[regularp]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Fwiw when I first addressed this I mentioned that the only investable section of the card market is super high end and high grade vintage but only a very small percentage of people in the market have an opportunity to invest in that stuff.

I think it is fair to make a blanket statement that overall, cards are a poor investment. Like I said, there are obviously exceptions to every rule. Not to mention the heavy manipulation of the high end market which is an entirely different conversation to have.

And that's more or less what we've been talking about but you wanted to derail this thread by getting high and mighty while acting like everyone in here was talking about putting money in Jonas Valanciunas collections.

[regularp]

I wonder if either of Atlanta's young guns, Collins or Young, could be worth putting a little money in. Mainly Collins since he's really flying under the radar but putting up really nice numbers. Granted, the Hawks are trash, but he's a high flyer and kind of exciting.

If the team adds a couple guys in the offseason, they could be in the playoffs next season.

[Southpas2013]

Originally Posted by ChampCards

Thanks bro, surprised there isn't other threads like this to discuss this topic yet..

I've seen previous discussions where when the word 'investing' is brought up in the card community it is a little frowned upon because it should be about collecting. Though, some cards are getting really high in prices, we can all collect base cards, but when it comes to higher end cards, I think it is definitely OK that it isn't ONLY be about collecting... but also part investment

I LOVE cards, I love looking at them and love 'prospecting' and really enjoy watching basketball. The thing is why not buy and invest in something you enjoy. Just like how people enjoy and support a company (like apple, or facebook, or google, or amazon)

Anyways, I look forward to everyone's input!

I agree with this 100% . I used to play the stock market as well. I got fully out of it. There’s just too much “real” info you use don’t know about these companies unless you’re an insider close to some sources that make decisions.

Once I got back into cards, I kept my logs of how mich I paid for cards and the date just to see where the value is now. And sure enough , it has done much better than I could have done in the stock market.

I would rather keep up with the sports world than try to read what’s going on with these companies and watch all these shows with the expert stock pickers than are MAYBE probably right 50% of the time of that.


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[unclemonkey]

I have discovered in all my collectible hobby interests (coins, sports, movie posters, art) that each has there icons.

Within those icons (Jordan/Lebron for example) are dreck and supreme quality. Sometimes in the same card.

I think to ultimately replace something like the S&P 500 one would have to think like or become a dealer.

Live within those niches and trade/sell relentlessly without regret.

Essentially collecting Benjamin's

[CitizunKane]

Originally Posted by regularp

I wonder if either of Atlanta's young guns, Collins or Young, could be worth putting a little money in. Mainly Collins since he's really flying under the radar but putting up really nice numbers. Granted, the Hawks are trash, but he's a high flyer and kind of exciting.

If the team adds a couple guys in the offseason, they could be in the playoffs next season.

I just don't see it with Young. I see his ceiling somewhere around a rich man's Jamal Crawford - can score in buckets, but probably better leading a second team.

Now Collins, on the other hand, I think may have some nice hobby upside. I've seen him play in person a few times in the past couple years, and he just looks "different" while playing - quick twitch muscles, or whatever they call it - he just seems to have another gear beyond most of the other guys on the floor. He just needs to get out of the wasteland of Atlanta - the Hawks have never produced a hobby favorite (says a guy with way too many Joe Johnson rookies . . .)

[regularp]

Originally Posted by CitizunKane

I just don't see it with Young. I see his ceiling somewhere around a rich man's Jamal Crawford - can score in buckets, but probably better leading a second team.

Now Collins, on the other hand, I think may have some nice hobby upside. I've seen him play in person a few times in the past couple years, and he just looks "different" while playing - quick twitch muscles, or whatever they call it - he just seems to have another gear beyond most of the other guys on the floor. He just needs to get out of the wasteland of Atlanta - the Hawks have never produced a hobby favorite (says a guy with way too many Joe Johnson rookies . . .)

Last 30 games:

18.9ppg
3.9rpg
8.2apg

43/38/82 shooting

Put up 36/8 on Chris Paul tonight on 12/23 shooting; 8/12 from three.

PSA 10 Silver Prizms are going between $130-175. If someone was in on him, now would be the time to pick some up while Luka-mania is going on.

Galactics are between $425-575.

[ChampCards]

updated this post a bit with some new things

I need opinions and help on these guys, which are cards i don't follow too much:
Paul George
Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
Kawhi Leonard
Marvin Bagley
DeAaron Fox
Trae Young
John Collins
DeAngelo Russell
DeAndre Ayton

[regularp]

Another monster game for Trae Young. 36/10/8 in an OT win over Minnesota. I did not know he would be this good of a passer in the league.

[ChampCards]

Originally Posted by regularp

Another monster game for Trae Young. 36/10/8 in an OT win over Minnesota. I did not know he would be this good of a passer in the league.

He always kinda looked good at passing! Underrated passer.

[regularp]

With the way Silver Prizms have taken off recently and with the growing popularity of Optic, I'd be surprised if those Optic Previews from a couple years ago don't have an explosion in price at some point. Even though the top names were going for $50-100 raw for a while those things are super rare.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by regularp

With the way Silver Prizms have taken off recently and with the growing popularity of Optic, I'd be surprised if those Optic Previews from a couple years ago don't have an explosion in price at some point. Even though the top names were going for $50-100 raw for a while those things are super rare.

Are you saying that a chrome LeBron with a print run of maybe 15 should be going for more than a chrome LeBron Prizm Silver with a print run of about 1,500?

[regularp]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Are you saying that a chrome LeBron with a print run of maybe 15 should be going for more than a chrome LeBron Prizm Silver with a print run of about 1,500?

Ha, it takes a while for that logic to catch on with the masses.

[ChampCards]

Bumping this: 2019-20 Prizm Basketball Sealed products will be absolutely on fire and will be a highly sought after product for investment should you get some early at retail price. Also, if Zion gets hot out the gate, watch out.

Reposting this by Tjforce from another thread, which I'd like to revisit later:

[regularp]

I hate that this thread died.

If anyone poured their money into key Kobe, LeBron or Curry cards when this was made, they're making out like a bandit right now and it's not even been a year and a half.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by regularp

I hate that this thread died.

If anyone poured their money into key Kobe, LeBron or Curry cards when this was made, they're making out like a bandit right now and it's not even been a year and a half.

Originally Posted by regularp

With the way Silver Prizms have taken off recently and with the growing popularity of Optic, I'd be surprised if those Optic Previews from a couple years ago don't have an explosion in price at some point. Even though the top names were going for $50-100 raw for a while those things are super rare.

Then we might as well bump this comment too, and the last round of eBay auctions on top players have appreciated quite a bit.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by regularp

I hate that this thread died.

If anyone poured their money into key Kobe, LeBron or Curry cards when this was made, they're making out like a bandit right now and it's not even been a year and a half.

Not entirely correct.

The majority of Kobe, Lebron, or Curry cards haven’t appreciated at all.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Not entirely correct.

The majority of Kobe, Lebron, or Curry cards haven’t appreciated at all.

Notice that he mentioned “key” Kobe, LeBron, curry cards.

Many that I can think of have done very well, at least for LeBron, who I follow.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Notice that he mentioned “key” Kobe, LeBron, curry cards.

Many that I can think of have done very well, at least for LeBron, who I follow.

I actually missed that word, but in my defense it’s early.

A bunch of those key cards though are close to impossible to accumulate volume. Outside of base chrome of course. It’s not like I can pick up multiple copies of key cards whenever I’d like.

I started picking up Lebron when he came to my Lakers. Don’t think if I went to sell right now I’d get my money back.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I actually missed that word, but in my defense it’s early.

A bunch of those key cards though are close to impossible to accumulate volume. Outside of base chrome of course. It’s not like I can pick up multiple copies of key cards whenever I’d like.

I started picking up Lebron when he came to my Lakers. Don’t think if I went to sell right now I’d get my money back.

Lol... you're telling me... I'm in LA and the baby decided 4am was a good time to wake up this morning.

With a guy like LeBron, when something becomes impossible to find in quantity, that just means that there's something else hiding in plain sight thats the next to blow.

Over the last 2 years, first it was Topps Chrome refractors, then it was Prizm Silvers, then it was Topps Chrome color.

Next will be........

I can't tell you. I am currently hoarding them.