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Old 04-22-2018, 10:40 PM   #1
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Default The economy of Basketball Cards: Lets talk Buys and Sells

Playing around with this, since I haven't seen a thread made like this.

I have always been into stock trading and stock market and in stock market there is always analysts that talks about what stocks they suggest you to buy and sell, when they suggest a stock is a sell (having a negative outlook), or suggesting when it is a good time to buy a stock (stock down too much and have a positive outlook)

In the stock market there is, short term trade (daytrade), mid term trade (swing trade), and long term trade (investments).

I know there are a lot of collectors in the forum who just collects for fun, but I also know there are a lot of people who are interested in not only enjoying beautiful cards but also buy for part 'investment' reasons.

A friend of mine sent me this the other day.. https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/market-indices


I found this very interesting that the card market (At least vintage) has out performed even S&P500 investments (And the S&P500 already did amazingly well already!), so card investments is a legit investment despite what people say, maybe even less risky than stock investments. And you know, if people invest in sneakers, toys, etc, why not cards.

To me there are blue chips in card world just like in the stock world, there are penny stocks which are high risk high reward in cards just like stock world.

Anyways... heres my take right now, feel free to share your own thoughts as if you were an analyst:

Jordan - Blue Chip, always a BUY mid term/long term hold for steady gains
Lebron - Blue Chip, always a BUY short term sell (playoff hype), mid term/long term hold for steady gains. If he loses to Pacers for whatever reasons (unlikely), it is a hugeee dip BUY
Kobe Bryant - Blue Chip, BUY long term hold for pre-panini stuff. Always a lakers legend, LA market a big market so there will always be buyers. However post panini cards less demand due to over production.
Wilt - Blue Chip (like a dividend stock, lol), Buy at anytime & long term hold
Tim Duncan - Buy, long term hold


Durant - Buy, people are not paying as much attention to warriors yet, they are bored, but comes conf or finals time, they will look again, still have chances to win another chip.
Curry - Short term to midterm Buy, his prices are down, but he is a highlight reel in shooting when he comes back. Bay area also helps.
Anthony Davis - Buy, good team and good outlook, will be a legend but only risk is injury.
Kawhi Leonard - Buy or Sell (could go either way depends on how things play out, more towards Sell side for uncertainly and risk)
Ben Simmons - Sell (short to midterm), Buy (mid to long term)
Harden - Sell
Giannis - Sell short term, mid/longterm potential Buy
Derozan - Sell Sell Sell
Rubio - Sell ASAP
Lillard - Sell
Towns - Buy for long term, He is great and could be real special.. However slightly hesitant on the buy, because I'm not sure if he will have that 'killer' mentality, AD is actually starting to develop this, but Towns...if he is not aggressive enough, could be a hobby downfall, also Jimmy Butler is overshadowing both KAT and Wiggins and limiting their potential hobby value wise.
Wiggins - Too late to Sell, might as well be a bagholder.. lol
Wall - Sell if he has a few good games int he playoffs, also bagholder situation... sell on any pop.
Donovan Mitchell - Sell (short term), Buy (midterm)
Devin Booker - Buy mid term to long term, He's kinda forgotten in Phoenix, but he can turn it up and light it up big time shooter highlight reel.
Westbrook - Buy (short term)
Dwayne Wade - Buy (long term), undervalued
Vince Carter - Buy (long term), undervalued, but slowly creeping up
Embiid - Sell (short term), potential Buy (mid to long), as long as he stays healthy

Penny stock equivalents (high risks, high rewards)
Jayson Tatum - Sell short term, midterm Buy
Lonzo Ball - Sell, can't shoot
Markelle Fultz - Sell
Jaylen Brown - Tough one to say, Sell short term
Victor Oladipo - Sell (playoff hype), not projected to get too far in playoffs though.

Other Lists:
Failed Penny Stock Equivalent: Player's in the hobby (pretty much spiked hard in first two years then died in the hobby and never came back, down trend from there, slow bleed), from a hyped price to pretty much nothing:
Tyreke Evans
Eric Gordon
Lamarcus Aldridge
Michael Carter Williams
Deron Williams
Rudy Gay
Jabari Parker
Andrew Bynum
D'angelo Russell
Greg Oden
Brandon Roy
Wiggins is getting there...

Failed blue chip potential (Ultimate crash):
Derrick Rose

Most of these are based on what we know currently and my thoughts on their outlook right now.

Other Tidbits shared by Chain:
90s Inserts - Sell on spikes
Exquisite - Buy on dips, Hold mid-long term
High-End Panini Autos and Patch Autos - Buy blue chip players, Hold mid-long term
Prizm RC - Sell
90s RC of All-time Greats - Buy based on rarity
Panini Case Hit Inserts - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
Post-2000 low numbered parallels - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:51 PM   #2
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Old 04-22-2018, 10:55 PM   #3
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Outstanding thread. I'm on my tablet but will comment when I hit my laptop. This is exactly how I've looked at my collection for quite sometime.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:00 PM   #4
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Outstanding thread. I'm on my tablet but will comment when I hit my laptop. This is exactly how I've looked at my collection for quite sometime.
Thanks bro, surprised there isn't other threads like this to discuss this topic yet..

I've seen previous discussions where when the word 'investing' is brought up in the card community it is a little frowned upon because it should be about collecting. Though, some cards are getting really high in prices, we can all collect base cards, but when it comes to higher end cards, I think it is definitely OK that it isn't ONLY be about collecting... but also part investment

I LOVE cards, I love looking at them and love 'prospecting' and really enjoy watching basketball. The thing is why not buy and invest in something you enjoy. Just like how people enjoy and support a company (like apple, or facebook, or google, or amazon)

Anyways, I look forward to everyone's input!
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:04 PM   #5
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No embiid?
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:06 PM   #6
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No embiid?
No opinion...
could go either way.. I'll add it why not.. lol.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:08 PM   #7
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This thread is going to be a good one. Great idea. The recent rapid rise in prices has me a little worried that a bubble pop is coming.

I think the big guys, LeBron and Jordan will always remain steady though

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Old 04-22-2018, 11:10 PM   #8
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The really interesting thing to me is the rise in prices of 90s cards. I mean it makes sense given kids from that era of card collecting are hitting the age where they can afford those cards. That's exactly my case.

I'm wondering how long that will last.

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Old 04-22-2018, 11:14 PM   #9
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Cards can absolutely be an investment and I've never understood why some people are so steadfast in claiming that they are not. What other way is there to 'buy stock' in athletes?

The card market overall seems to be in a great spot and I don't really see it changing anytime soon. Recent publicity from some huge sales should help too. Whenever I tell people about my card hobby and the possibilities that come with it, they are always very intrigued. I wish there was more of a way to market and advertise the industry to bring more outside folks in.

It's always fun identifying some players, buying them up, and then waiting on them to see if they pan out. I'd agree with all the names you listed above for the most part, and add in some other young studs such as Towns, Jokic, Ingram, Jamal Murray as other guys to watch. I've also personally gravitated towards the 90s-early 2000s players and cards myself as opposed to newer products, and think this is a trend we will continue to see.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:28 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by jjohnson814 View Post
This thread is going to be a good one. Great idea. The recent rapid rise in prices has me a little worried that a bubble pop is coming.

I think the big guys, LeBron and Jordan will always remain steady though

Quote:
Originally Posted by jjohnson814 View Post
The really interesting thing to me is the rise in prices of 90s cards. I mean it makes sense given kids from that era of card collecting are hitting the age where they can afford those cards. That's exactly my case.

I'm wondering how long that will last.
Hey man I agree, I am also worried about a bubble popping too, but does this really exist in cards? I wonder.

I think there are not enough people trading it (for a real 'bubble' to pop)
Technically the prizm 'bubble' already popped (since the run late last year).

Thats the amazing thing about cards too, because even when a bubble pops, its not going to sell off in a rapid speed. Simply because a lot of people really just buy for pleasure (i partly do too for certain players just for fun) People sell off more because of emotion sometimes more than because of 'fear' (which is the case in stocks and crypto).

Look at Lebron for example, when he announced the 'decision' to go to the Heat, the sell off came quick because of emotional fans who didn't want anything to do with him anymore..but even then, all the new buyers came in and bought it all up. His prices eventually solidified after a few championships and then now its going strong bullish just like Jordan. But thats also because he is exclusive with UD and theres scarcity. Unlike Kobe and Durant being overproduced by Panini.

When you invest in Stocks or Crypto, etc, you really just have a number and a ticker symbol, its almost hard to quantify. The liquidity of stocks and crypto is also a lot higher because general public are in big as it gets 'popularized in media'. Trading cards has a way lower liquidity and will never become mainstream (thats part of the great things about cards, IMO way lower risks) you won't wake up ONE morning to find that Kobe cards dropped in 50% lol...worst case scenario it drops 50% over 1-2 years but never overnight.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:33 PM   #11
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Good job starting this thread OP.

Apart from specific players, what's the opinion on these:

90s Inserts
Exquisite
High-End Panini Autos and Patch Autos
Prizm RC
90s RC of All-time Greats
Panini Case Hit Inserts
Post-2000 low numbered parallels

Personally I would say:

90s Inserts - Sell on spikes
Exquisite - Buy on dips, Hold mid-long term
High-End Panini Autos and Patch Autos - Buy blue chip players, Hold mid-long term
Prizm RC - Sell
90s RC of All-time Greats - Buy based on rarity
Panini Case Hit Inserts - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
Post-2000 low numbered parallels - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:35 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ChampCards View Post
Hey man I agree, I am also worried about a bubble popping too, but does this really exist in cards? I wonder.

I think there are not enough people trading it (for a real 'bubble' to pop)
Technically the prizm 'bubble' already popped (since the run late last year).

Thats the amazing thing about cards too, because even when a bubble pops, its not going to sell off in a rapid speed. Simply because a lot of people really just buy for pleasure (i partly do too for certain players just for fun) People sell off more because of emotion sometimes more than because of 'fear' (which is the case in stocks and crypto).

Look at Lebron for example, when he announced the 'decision' to go to the Heat, the sell off came quick because of emotional fans who didn't want anything to do with him anymore..but even then, all the new buyers came in and bought it all up. His prices eventually solidified after a few championships and then now its going strong bullish just like Jordan. But thats also because he is exclusive with UD and theres scarcity. Unlike Kobe and Durant being overproduced by Panini.

When you invest in Stocks or Crypto, etc, you really just have a number and a ticker symbol, its almost hard to quantify. The liquidity of stocks and crypto is also a lot higher because general public are in big as it gets 'popularized in media'. Trading cards has a way lower liquidity and will never become mainstream (thats part of the great things about cards, IMO way lower risks) you won't wake up ONE morning to find that Kobe cards dropped in 50% lol...worst case scenario it drops 50% over 1-2 years but never overnight.
Yeah that's a good point. LeBron Kobe and Jordan have extremely low volatility. It's just a steady rise.

One thing that you didn't mention though is if the stock market goes into recession then you will see card prices dip across the board. When the economy has less money, they will spend less on pleasure items like collectibles.

I've actually put a decent amount of money into cards for investing for the simple fact of diversification. Crypto, stocks, cards, there's a place for all these as investments.

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Old 04-22-2018, 11:35 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by darscards35kd View Post
Cards can absolutely be an investment and I've never understood why some people are so steadfast in claiming that they are not. What other way is there to 'buy stock' in athletes?

The card market overall seems to be in a great spot and I don't really see it changing anytime soon. Recent publicity from some huge sales should help too. Whenever I tell people about my card hobby and the possibilities that come with it, they are always very intrigued. I wish there was more of a way to market and advertise the industry to bring more outside folks in.

It's always fun identifying some players, buying them up, and then waiting on them to see if they pan out. I'd agree with all the names you listed above for the most part, and add in some other young studs such as Towns, Jokic, Ingram, Jamal Murray as other guys to watch. I've also personally gravitated towards the 90s-early 2000s players and cards myself as opposed to newer products, and think this is a trend we will continue to see.
I agree, card market seems to be in a great spot especially with all the interest of the NBA to spread the sport worldwide.. so many buyers from around the world now. Especially the interest spike in Asia. (I see a lot of buyers and sellers from Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and China these days...)

I am actually glad it is not marketed or advertised more, because you don't want to attract too big of institutional buyers or other super big buyers which will mess up the market lol.

Theres definitely great fun and joy about identifying new players every year, buying them up, and seeing if they pan out. haha..

I think the 90s trend will continue steadily, for the cards to go up as there is scarcity.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjohnson814 View Post
This thread is going to be a good one. Great idea. The recent rapid rise in prices has me a little worried that a bubble pop is coming.

I think the big guys, LeBron and Jordan will always remain steady though

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I agree about the bubble. That graph screams bubble. I donít want to detract from the OP, I think their is investment potential in cards, but now is not the time for that. The current rise is unsustainable. Product is continuing to flood the market. Any player who is worth investing in is being mass produced, even after retirement. Players are signing at record numbers. This is just like the housing bubble.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:38 PM   #15
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I agree about the bubble. That graph screams bubble. I donít want to detract from the OP, I think their is investment potential in cards, but now is not the time for that. The current rise is unsustainable. Product is continuing to flood the market. Any player who is worth investing in is being mass produced, even after retirement. Players are signing at record numbers. This is just like the housing bubble.
But that graph is only the best of the best cards. I bet overall cards are down. This actually tells me that people are tired of overproduced junk and they would rather put their money in legendary cards.

That doesn't mean a bubble isn't possible.

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Old 04-22-2018, 11:39 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Chain View Post
Good job starting this thread OP.

Apart from specific players, what's the opinion on these:

90s Inserts
Exquisite
High-End Panini Autos and Patch Autos
Prizm RC
90s RC of All-time Greats
Panini Case Hit Inserts
Post-2000 low numbered parallels

Personally I would say:

90s Inserts - Sell on spikes
Exquisite - Buy on dips, Hold mid-long term
High-End Panini Autos and Patch Autos - Buy blue chip players, Hold mid-long term
Prizm RC - Sell
90s RC of All-time Greats - Buy based on rarity
Panini Case Hit Inserts - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
Post-2000 low numbered parallels - Buy blue chip players. Hold long term
Thanks buddy, I actually was hoping someone like you would comment, i find these sets also very intriguing. I don't know enough about sets and didnt' really watch closely the growth of the 90s inserts and Exquisite era, so I can't comment on them really. But I would love to hear from experts here on these topics.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:43 PM   #17
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So, some of my thoughts on this:

This was what made Beckett, Beckett. With those little arrows pointing up and down. The problem was, back in the day, it was a monthly release.

Now we have Ebay.

I could go 1000 different directions with this thread, all positive, but looking at cards, they most certainly can be looked at as varying blue chips, shorts, etc etc using the wall street slang.

You can also look at the various sports in terms of types of annuity's - some will do better than others when it comes to ROI as a whole:

1. Baseball
2. Basketball
3. Football
4. Hockey
5. Soccer

Of course that order could change.

Now, the players.

I agree with the OP's post - perhaps one or two variations, but predictably, the same. For example, Embiid, for someone with my style of collecting, is a straight out SELL SELL SELL. I consider him to fragile to make any long term impact.

KAT - Buy/hold
Giannis - Buy/hold
Kawhi - sell/go long
Etc, list could get long.

But for fun, I'm going to do the top 20 rookies from last years draft:

1. Fultz - hold/ mid term
2. Ball - sell / mid term
3. Tatum - buy / hold
4. Jackson - buy / mid term
5. Fox - buy / mid term
6. Isaac - sell / mid term
7. Markkanen - buy / hold
8. Ntilikina - sell
9. DSJ - buy / hold
10. Collins - buy / long hold
11. Monk - sell
12. Kennard - sell
13. Mitchell - buy / long hold
14. Bam - sell / mid term
15. Jackson - buy / mid-term
16. Patton - sell
17. Wilson - buy / mid term
18. Leaf - sell
19. Collins - buy / mid term
20. Harry Giles - sell

I'm going to jump to Kuzma - buy/ long hold

Oh and of course any good stock broker has to disclose if they own any stock. I own all of the above mentioned stock.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:44 PM   #18
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Also, people disparage the grading companies quite a bit here... but I don’t think we see this spike if not for graded and authenticated cards.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:44 PM   #19
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I agree about the bubble. That graph screams bubble. I don’t want to detract from the OP, I think their is investment potential in cards, but now is not the time for that. The current rise is unsustainable. Product is continuing to flood the market. Any player who is worth investing in is being mass produced, even after retirement. Players are signing at record numbers. This is just like the housing bubble.
Harper, thank you for sharing your input, I love this input because doesn't that chart screams bubble? In any bubble of the stock market, it looks like that.

I'm actually thinking S&P500 is also in a bubble, it has a similar chart..
At the end of the day, it is about supply and demand. I feel that the bubble would have popped HARD already if there wasn't more buyers..but there are it seems. It seems like the overseas market, group breakers, are holding it together..

I noticed that the 'hype' just dies faster, the role players just goes to $1 quicker.

You'd be surprise how many decent player autographs or jersey cards you can pick up for $1 lol...

However, people seem to buy the best and due to the scarcity of Jordans and Lebrons, they continue to rise... Simmons may join them if UD continues to have his license...Especially Jordan's scarcity, since panini can't even product any bulls jersey cards for him anymore. Demand for Jordan is still really high especially with the collectors worldwide..
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:50 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by jjohnson814 View Post
Yeah that's a good point. LeBron Kobe and Jordan have extremely low volatility. It's just a steady rise.

One thing that you didn't mention though is if the stock market goes into recession then you will see card prices dip across the board. When the economy has less money, they will spend less on pleasure items like collectibles.

I've actually put a decent amount of money into cards for investing for the simple fact of diversification. Crypto, stocks, cards, there's a place for all these as investments.

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Absolutely its on my mind man, because I watch the S&P500 and I see a potential crash coming...unless it can reach all time highs again, the chart doesn't look great though...

I also agree with you, that if the stock market goes into recession then cards will dip across the board. Cards is also a way for me to diversify, but its probably the most fun for me out of stocks and crypto, simply because its something that looks pretty, just like people who invest in art market and have paintings they can look at to appreciate lol.
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Old 04-22-2018, 11:57 PM   #21
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thanks for sharing man, i love your input especially on what you have to say about this year's rookies!

haha damn, you own a lot of the rookies. haha.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wickedliquids View Post
So, some of my thoughts on this:

This was what made Beckett, Beckett. With those little arrows pointing up and down. The problem was, back in the day, it was a monthly release.

Now we have Ebay.

I could go 1000 different directions with this thread, all positive, but looking at cards, they most certainly can be looked at as varying blue chips, shorts, etc etc using the wall street slang.

You can also look at the various sports in terms of types of annuity's - some will do better than others when it comes to ROI as a whole:

1. Baseball
2. Basketball
3. Football
4. Hockey
5. Soccer

Of course that order could change.

Now, the players.

I agree with the OP's post - perhaps one or two variations, but predictably, the same. For example, Embiid, for someone with my style of collecting, is a straight out SELL SELL SELL. I consider him to fragile to make any long term impact.

KAT - Buy/hold
Giannis - Buy/hold
Kawhi - sell/go long
Etc, list could get long.

But for fun, I'm going to do the top 20 rookies from last years draft:

1. Fultz - hold/ mid term
2. Ball - sell / mid term
3. Tatum - buy / hold
4. Jackson - buy / mid term
5. Fox - buy / mid term
6. Isaac - sell / mid term
7. Markkanen - buy / hold
8. Ntilikina - sell
9. DSJ - buy / hold
10. Collins - buy / long hold
11. Monk - sell
12. Kennard - sell
13. Mitchell - buy / long hold
14. Bam - sell / mid term
15. Jackson - buy / mid-term
16. Patton - sell
17. Wilson - buy / mid term
18. Leaf - sell
19. Collins - buy / mid term
20. Harry Giles - sell

I'm going to jump to Kuzma - buy/ long hold

Oh and of course any good stock broker has to disclose if they own any stock. I own all of the above mentioned stock.
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:01 AM   #22
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Any pointers on my Al Jefferson collection? I don't see any advice for him.
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:05 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post
Any pointers on my Al Jefferson collection? I don't see any advice for him.
Collect...for the personal love of Big AL.
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:27 AM   #24
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Great post
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Old 04-23-2018, 12:32 AM   #25
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Hey man I agree, I am also worried about a bubble popping too, but does this really exist in cards? I wonder.

I think there are not enough people trading it (for a real 'bubble' to pop)
Technically the prizm 'bubble' already popped (since the run late last year).

Thats the amazing thing about cards too, because even when a bubble pops, its not going to sell off in a rapid speed. Simply because a lot of people really just buy for pleasure (i partly do too for certain players just for fun) People sell off more because of emotion sometimes more than because of 'fear' (which is the case in stocks and crypto).

Look at Lebron for example, when he announced the 'decision' to go to the Heat, the sell off came quick because of emotional fans who didn't want anything to do with him anymore..but even then, all the new buyers came in and bought it all up. His prices eventually solidified after a few championships and then now its going strong bullish just like Jordan. But thats also because he is exclusive with UD and theres scarcity. Unlike Kobe and Durant being overproduced by Panini.

When you invest in Stocks or Crypto, etc, you really just have a number and a ticker symbol, its almost hard to quantify. The liquidity of stocks and crypto is also a lot higher because general public are in big as it gets 'popularized in media'. Trading cards has a way lower liquidity and will never become mainstream (thats part of the great things about cards, IMO way lower risks) you won't wake up ONE morning to find that Kobe cards dropped in 50% lol...worst case scenario it drops 50% over 1-2 years but never overnight.
Great thread I love trading stocks as well.

The lack of liquidity imo is the biggest risk of the card market. Easy manipulation, hard to unload high quantities, limited amount of capital involved. Itís fun buying cards but the risk factor is much higher than equites, collectibles are usually categorized as high risk on an investment spectrum.
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