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05-12-2015, 06:52 PM | #1 |
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Thoughts on the Cano deal, nearly two years later.
Was having a discussion about this earlier today with a bud and we had differing opinions, but it got me thinking.
What do you guys think of Cano and his deal with the Mariners? Worth every penny, or disappointment? I'm leaning towards the latter, but I'm biased, as he's on my fantasy team and is having a total power outage since he moved over to Seattle. I know that was to be expected. But I saw an article in ESPN that showed his HRs in his last year in NY, and all but one would have been homers in SEA. I'd love to hear some Mariners fans thoughts, and non Mariners fans, too. Just keep it friendly!
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05-12-2015, 06:55 PM | #2 |
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Any time you give a player 30 or over a long term deal there is major risk. If you think it is a disappointment now, it isn't going to get better over time. I always feel like a player's prime is 27 to about 34. Cano is closer to that 34 so idk man.
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05-12-2015, 06:56 PM | #3 |
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That park is a killer.
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05-12-2015, 07:05 PM | #4 |
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Nelson Cruz sees your comment, and homers off of it.
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05-12-2015, 07:12 PM | #5 |
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I will also say that we have seen way, way too many recent cases of a star cashing in on a huge long term contract and the power falling off the table immediately after, coincidence? Am I accusing Cano of anything? No, but personally it sets off plenty of red flags in my head.
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05-12-2015, 07:13 PM | #6 |
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Nearly two years? Closer to one year
To early to chalk it up as a bust. |
05-12-2015, 07:15 PM | #7 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:17 PM | #8 |
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To me, as a Mariners fan. I still like the deal. Ask me in about 6 seasons.
BUT, without having Cano here, I doubt Cruz signs. His bat is lacking thus far, but he brings free agents, and still plays killer defense
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05-12-2015, 07:18 PM | #9 |
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Who was the last hitter to hit 30 HR's for the Mariners playing half their games in SafeCo field? He's having a special season, but name the last one.....
Answer: Russell Branyan 2009 Before that? Richie Sexson, 2006 They've had two different players in ten years hit 30 HR's. Not 40, 30....
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05-12-2015, 07:20 PM | #10 |
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Some warning signs before the contract.
The first key is to see how many home runs Cano lost moving from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Field. Using Inside Edge data*, I estimated his HRs in 2012 and 2013 if he played half his games in Safeco and half at a league average field. This value would give an estimate on how much his home run total would go down. He hit 60 for the combined two seasons and the estimated home run total was 54.0. On average, he would be down three home runs per season if he was a Mariner those two years. If we move to his 2014 home runs, he would be estimated to hit 14.4 HR. He wasn’t exactly unlucky this past season, he hit almost as many home runs as he deserved. Cano has really quit hitting the ball deep and the change started in 2013. Here are some numbers from his last six halves of baseball. Half: ISO, HR/FB% 2012 1H: .265, 26% 2012 2H: .207, 21% 2013: 1H: .229, 22% 2013 2H: .163, 10% 2014: 1H: .127, 10% 2014 2H: .157, 12% http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/66490/
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05-12-2015, 07:24 PM | #11 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:28 PM | #12 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:33 PM | #13 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:35 PM | #14 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:40 PM | #15 | |
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05-12-2015, 07:47 PM | #16 | |
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Not a bust at all when you look further at the numbers. You're saying he had a total power outage but its not like he was a beast. He reached the 30 homer plateau one time in his 9 years with the Yankees while 4 other seasons he didn't reach the 20 homerun mark. Also don't really think the park is to blame for his lower total. He hit 9 in Seattle and just 5 on the road. 2013 with the Yankees he hit 11 at Yankee stadium and 16 on the road. So he was just two off of his Yankee home total but 11 homers difference while at another stadium |
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05-12-2015, 07:48 PM | #17 |
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Nelson Cruz 2015 Home Run Split
Home: 3 HR Away: 11 HR C'mon now.
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05-12-2015, 08:05 PM | #18 |
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I haven't read all the comments, yet, but I look forward to seeing them. Just wanted to post what I referenced in my OP. Here's Canos 27 2013 HRs, placed in Safeco.
Take it however you'd like. But its odd....
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05-12-2015, 08:12 PM | #19 |
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Also, the Brayan argument is beyond silly. The Astros haven't had someone have a 50 HR season, MUST BE THE BALLPARK.
Definitely not ignoring the fact that few if any people in the sport can hit 50. And the Mariners have been a burning dumpster the past few years talent wise..... To say people can't hit in pitchers ballparks is silly, while there are less people that can, they do still exist.
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Self-proclaimed: HANLEY RAMIREZ and Clayton Kershaw SUPERCOLLECTOR.
Also collecting: Hunter Pence, Michael Pineda, and Gregory Polanco Bucket: https://picasaweb.google.com/110725359593585808487 |
05-12-2015, 08:13 PM | #20 | |
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Absolutely loved reading this. Bringing out my inner Bill James. Thanks for sharing!
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Self-proclaimed: HANLEY RAMIREZ and Clayton Kershaw SUPERCOLLECTOR.
Also collecting: Hunter Pence, Michael Pineda, and Gregory Polanco Bucket: https://picasaweb.google.com/110725359593585808487 |
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05-12-2015, 08:20 PM | #22 |
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Simple, no mega-deal has or ever will be 'worth it' over the duration of the contract. It's just how baseball contracts work.
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05-12-2015, 08:25 PM | #23 |
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The distance is not the issue, it's how heavy the air is.
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05-13-2015, 08:21 AM | #24 |
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05-13-2015, 08:34 AM | #25 |
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i think he is like Pudge to the Tigers...he was a big signing who will bring other big names to town....although they put alot more into cano...i think the combo of coming from NYY to SEA mentally is crushing his power...he knew he didnt have to do much in NYY to go yard...now he knows he has to drive it very good...even if his HR in nyy would be hr in seattle...its different mentally...will it be a horrible contract? YES...they all will be....Pujols, Miggy, Kershaw(yes him too), Scherzer, Sabathia, Verlander, Fielder, Cano....baseball is strange as you get paid for what you ALREADY DID...you are given 7+yr deals in hopes that in the first 2yrs or so you will win a title...after that who cares...if you dont then its a horrible contract...Kershaw is the only one who has shot to not be awful deal...but even so...if he is great for all 7yrs...his contract after will be just as high if not more and that one will be a disaster...
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