Prospecting

[Raysfan16]

I collect 99% baseball and maybe a Lightning insert or RC here and there, but am interested in getting into the hobby.

Do people go wild with 'prospecting' like people in the Baseball forum do? And if so what product is most similar to Bowman Chrome? I'm not familiar with all the nuances of the different hockey products--what holds its value, what is the cheap-yet-expensive knockoff, what are the uber high end products, etc. If anyone could help shed some light, I'd be grateful!

Thanks!

[Rabbit]

Hockey prospecting is not the same as in baseball. Hockey collectors basically shun anything that isn't NHL licensed, and there is no Bowman-like arrangement. So you're prospecting on guys who have already made the show.

I'll put it this way - I'm a former hockey scout whose day job was selling baseball prospect cards. I made a killing at baseball prospecting, and I've never enjoyed baseball enough to watch an entire game. The sport I know best, the sport I was being paid to scout, I didn't prospect much because it was so much harder to make a profit.

If you're prospecting, your bread and butter is going to be Young Guns and SP Authentic. Cup is the high end, but if you're going to try to prospect the top guys with that, the buy in is incredibly high, and the ceiling isn't that high unless they become a Crosby.

[Raysfan16]

Thanks for your response. You're basically confirming what I already suspected--that there isn't really that much of a prospecting market. You could prospect with MLB guys too once they hit the bigs, but really, what are the odds that you hit a profit unless their name is Trout or Cabrera? Slim to none. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Stamkos' YG RC hasn't increased a bit since he arrived, despite establishing himself as a perennial star.

Now I'm curious--how you were able to make a killing with baseball prospecting when you don't have the patience nor desire to watch a lot of baseball? I've watched baseball my whole life and gotten a feel for who's undervalued and on the upswing but still don't feel like taking the plunge yet.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by Raysfan16

Thanks for your response. You're basically confirming what I already suspected--that there isn't really that much of a prospecting market. You could prospect with MLB guys too once they hit the bigs, but really, what are the odds that you hit a profit unless their name is Trout or Cabrera? Slim to none. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Stamkos' YG RC hasn't increased a bit since he arrived, despite establishing himself as a perennial star.

Now I'm curious--how you were able to make a killing with baseball prospecting when you don't have the patience nor desire to watch a lot of baseball? I've watched baseball my whole life and gotten a feel for who's undervalued and on the upswing but still don't feel like taking the plunge yet.

I came up with a formula that basically identified players that had a shot at making it to the majors. I had one for pitchers and one for hitters. They worked like a charm. I'd input the stats of each player in a particular product, and the formula would show me which ones had a shot at making it.

Obviously, guys like Longoria were going to make it, but there was never a time where his cards were cheap. I was buying up colored refractors of guys like Chris Davis and Jim Negrych. I made an absolute KILLING on Pablo Sandoval, Chad Gaudin and Ubaldo Jimenez.

I bought up all the Pablo Sandoval gold refractors when people were busting the product and the market was saturated. I remember buying three of them in one week for $1 each. You know how high they got, and I sold at the peak.

I have the most incredible Charlie Haeger collection in the world. I think I own 20% of his Gold, Orange and Red refractors. Formula said he'd have a strong chance. Same with Erik Averill. They didn't pan out.

But I made so much money on the ones that did that it more than paid for the ones that didn't. Many times over. I was hitting at about 45%.

I'm trying to remember the formula. It was basically something to do with the ratio of WHIP to K/IP, then adjusted for age, level of play and how much that player's cards were selling for. Relievers were automatically eliminated.

[Rabbit]

I'm also the guy who made up the legend of Cooper Brannon. I got his Golds to jump from $10 to $25 even though he was out of baseball before the set was released.

[ejs23]

Originally Posted by Rabbit

Hockey collectors basically shun anything that isn't NHL licensed....

i don't think that's true at all. many hockey collectors are big fans of ITG products. just as many dislike panini, licensed or not.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by ejs23

i don't think that's true at all. many hockey collectors are big fans of ITG products. just as many dislike panini, licensed or not.

A hockey player's first ITG card and a baseball player's first Bowman Chrome card are not even comparable.

[k13]

Originally Posted by Raysfan16

Thanks for your response. You're basically confirming what I already suspected--that there isn't really that much of a prospecting market. You could prospect with MLB guys too once they hit the bigs, but really, what are the odds that you hit a profit unless their name is Trout or Cabrera? Slim to none. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Stamkos' YG RC hasn't increased a bit since he arrived, despite establishing himself as a perennial star.

Now I'm curious--how you were able to make a killing with baseball prospecting when you don't have the patience nor desire to watch a lot of baseball? I've watched baseball my whole life and gotten a feel for who's undervalued and on the upswing but still don't feel like taking the plunge yet.

Stamkos rc's dropped big after he looked like a bust thats when you prospect and pick them up and boom he's a star now...

[oldgoldy97]

There was a Bowman Chrome CHL or something product that came out in the late 90s. I remember buying a box of it for cheap. Oh, what could have been.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

There was a Bowman Chrome CHL or something product that came out in the late 90s. I remember buying a box of it for cheap. Oh, what could have been.

I've got a bunch of that. Nice stuff. I pulled a Lecavalier Golden Anniversary (same as a gold refractor) and had it graded. Sold it for $145. That's back when PSA was just becoming popular and you could buy $50 boxes of 91-92 UD Czech, pull 4-6 Kariyas, send them to PSA and get $170 for the 10s and $75 for the 9s.

[BOOMER7]

Originally Posted by Rabbit

I've got a bunch of that. Nice stuff. I pulled a Lecavalier Golden Anniversary (same as a gold refractor) and had it graded. Sold it for $145. That's back when PSA was just becoming popular and you could buy $50 boxes of 91-92 UD Czech, pull 4-6 Kariyas, send them to PSA and get $170 for the 10s and $75 for the 9s.

those were the days. i still have cases/jumbo cases of 91-92 that won't fetch $10 box

[SDcardguy24]

Originally Posted by Rabbit

Hockey prospecting is not the same as in baseball. Hockey collectors basically shun anything that isn't NHL licensed, and there is no Bowman-like arrangement. So you're prospecting on guys who have already made the show.

I'll put it this way - I'm a former hockey scout whose day job was selling baseball prospect cards. I made a killing at baseball prospecting, and I've never enjoyed baseball enough to watch an entire game. The sport I know best, the sport I was being paid to scout, I didn't prospect much because it was so much harder to make a profit.

If you're prospecting, your bread and butter is going to be Young Guns and SP Authentic. Cup is the high end, but if you're going to try to prospect the top guys with that, the buy in is incredibly high, and the ceiling isn't that high unless they become a Crosby.

Originally Posted by Rabbit

I came up with a formula that basically identified players that had a shot at making it to the majors. I had one for pitchers and one for hitters. They worked like a charm. I'd input the stats of each player in a particular product, and the formula would show me which ones had a shot at making it.

Obviously, guys like Longoria were going to make it, but there was never a time where his cards were cheap. I was buying up colored refractors of guys like Chris Davis and Jim Negrych. I made an absolute KILLING on Pablo Sandoval, Chad Gaudin and Ubaldo Jimenez.

I bought up all the Pablo Sandoval gold refractors when people were busting the product and the market was saturated. I remember buying three of them in one week for $1 each. You know how high they got, and I sold at the peak.

I have the most incredible Charlie Haeger collection in the world. I think I own 20% of his Gold, Orange and Red refractors. Formula said he'd have a strong chance. Same with Erik Averill. They didn't pan out.

But I made so much money on the ones that did that it more than paid for the ones that didn't. Many times over. I was hitting at about 45%.

I'm trying to remember the formula. It was basically something to do with the ratio of WHIP to K/IP, then adjusted for age, level of play and how much that player's cards were selling for. Relievers were automatically eliminated.

This is really interesting to me. Do you think a lot of other prospecters have formulas like you did?

Originally Posted by Rabbit

I'm also the guy who made up the legend of Cooper Brannon. I got his Golds to jump from $10 to $25 even though he was out of baseball before the set was released.

I remember that guy!

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Rabbit

I've got a bunch of that. Nice stuff. I pulled a Lecavalier Golden Anniversary (same as a gold refractor) and had it graded. Sold it for $145. That's back when PSA was just becoming popular and you could buy $50 boxes of 91-92 UD Czech, pull 4-6 Kariyas, send them to PSA and get $170 for the 10s and $75 for the 9s.

I pulled a golden of some guy who didn't amount to anything.

[mwheeler27]

Reading this thread feels like deja vu, or the twilight zone, or both.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by BOOMER7

those were the days. i still have cases/jumbo cases of 91-92 that won't fetch $10 box

I've been away from cards and sports for a couple years. I've been setting up a career in stand up comedy. Money is good now and my attitude toward cards has changed. I think I want a collection now. I want graded RCs of all the best athletes ever. So I'm looking forward to busting a box of 91-92 UD hockey, and a box of Czech. I've got dozens of all the RCs in my garage, but I want to pull them and have them graded.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by SDcardguy24

I remember that guy!

Who could forget him?

Cooper Brannon was going to be an all-star. He was a natural lefty and had heat, movement and good breaking stuff. All the major colleges were looking at him, but he decided to go in the Army. Maybe it was the marines, I'm not sure. He was over in Iraq or Afghanistan (sorry, can't remember which) and an IED went off just outside his vehicle. Shrapnel ripped through the jeep. Some tore through his leg, and one piece took off half of the pointer and middle fingers on his right hand.

So after he got back from the war and got his discharge, he went back to pitching. His arm got sore, so he threw the ball back to the catcher with his right arm, and apparently only gripped the ball with his thumb and those two gnarled nubs. The combination of the lack of grip on the ball, and the awkward motion of the release caused Brannon to pitch a new type of knuckleball. Brannon dubbed it "the Nubbinball".

He had a really good attitude about the whole thing. If you asked him what was up, he'd hold up his nubs and say "nubbin much!" If you asked him what time it was, he'd hold up all fingers on both hands and say "right around 9 o'clock." His nickname in the Army was "Thumb Shocker."

Anyway, he was destined to be a star. He projected to be a #2-3 starter as a lefty, and probably a #3-4 innings hog as a righty, and could come out of the pen as a righty if need be.

He was going to be a huge star. I posted his story all over Beckett's message boards, and everywhere else I could find.

[sportstrader14]

My answer for you:

The SP Authentic Future Watch AUTOS would be equal to a players 1st Bowman Chrome Auto.

For example:

Nazem Kadri, a center man for the Leafs had a very slow start to his career and you could buy one for roughly 15$-20$ back in 2010-11

The 2012-13 shortened season he absolutely tore it up and those autos were hitting 55$-70$ on eBay.

After the disappointed/not as exciting season, you can pick one up for roughly 30$ I believe... (Been a while since I've checked)

So thus, A players SP Authentic Future watch auto is equal to a ball players Bowman Chrome Auto.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by sportstrader14

My answer for you:

The SP Authentic Future Watch AUTOS would be equal to a players 1st Bowman Chrome Auto.

For example:

Nazem Kadri, a center man for the Leafs had a very slow start to his career and you could buy one for roughly 15$-20$ back in 2010-11

The 2012-13 shortened season he absolutely tore it up and those autos were hitting 55$-70$ on eBay.

After the disappointed/not as exciting season, you can pick one up for roughly 30$ I believe... (Been a while since I've checked)

So thus, A players SP Authentic Future watch auto is equal to a ball players Bowman Chrome Auto.

A baseball player gets his Bowman Chrome Auto before his major league career starts. So SPA isn't the same thing at all.

[BackupGoalie]

Originally Posted by Rabbit

A hockey player's first ITG card and a baseball player's first Bowman Chrome card are not even comparable.

Look at McDavid and Crosby's first ITG cards

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by BackupGoalie

Look at McDavid and Crosby's first ITG cards

Okay.

McDavid.
Crosby.

Bryce Harper.

Here's Stamkos' first ITG auto.

Here's Harper's first Chrome Auto.

[Rinkwraith]

Can't really compare hockey to baseball. Production runs alone put the two in different hemispheres.

NHLPA contract requires a player to appear in a regular NHL game before licensed cards of that individual can be made. Take for example Jonathan Drouin from last year's draft, didn't make the team last year and figures to be a high $ RC next year.

Hockey hobby love is more tied into Cup results and international fanbases as well. A guy can have a great regular season, but if he fails come play-off time, he has limited love until then. If Tavares and Stamkos ever hoist the Cup, then kaboom, until then its a glass ceiling no matter how many 50 goal seasons.

The best prospecting to me is the goalie watch as typically first year goalie RCs don't play that entire season. Quick being an excellent example of that. Gibson this year with the Ducks should result in some fairly high Cup pricing out of the gate. There's also another goalie who won his first game this year that I'll be watching closely when his cards hit.

[k13]

Stamkos tavares and kane...price differences???

Cups don't matter.

[Rabbit]

Originally Posted by Rinkwraith

Can't really compare hockey to baseball. Production runs alone put the two in different hemispheres.

NHLPA contract requires a player to appear in a regular NHL game before licensed cards of that individual can be made. Take for example Jonathan Drouin from last year's draft, didn't make the team last year and figures to be a high $ RC next year.

That's kind of what I was saying. You can't prospect in hockey like you can in baseball. They're not comparable.

Originally Posted by Rinkwraith

The best prospecting to me is the goalie watch as typically first year goalie RCs don't play that entire season. Quick being an excellent example of that. Gibson this year with the Ducks should result in some fairly high Cup pricing out of the gate. There's also another goalie who won his first game this year that I'll be watching closely when his cards hit.

There are very few quality goalies in this class.