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Old 03-13-2018, 08:08 AM   #4051
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they probably have past years
That doesn’t totally explain current raws selling for more than older gradeds, unless you assume that the only folks interested in these are year-to-year setbuilders, which can’t be the case in light of the number of star player PC focus collectors. And there are far fewer 2015 and 2016 Rizzo and Bryant throwbacks out there in total than there are dedicated collectors of those two players.

In doing some more eBay searching, there was a 2018 Alex Bregman Throwback that sold for more than I paid for the highest BGS graded 2016 Bryant (last night) + the highest or second highest graded 2015 Rizzo Throwback (several months ago). That Bregman was on a traditional auction with 13 bids, not a dumb BIN decision by one person.

I know Astros fans are all juiced up right now, but does that type of a price disparity seem sensible?

Maybe a bunch of new blood and new money is chasing these for the first time this year, which is crazily inflating the market. But there are way better long term values lurking out there right now in some of the older Throwbacks, esp when you can get gem graded for less than current raw. These new ones will be available for far less in all likelihood a couple years from now (even graded, if current experience holds true).

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Old 03-13-2018, 09:49 AM   #4052
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Bought a box of Heritage with the %20 off eBay coupon and hit

Devers Rookie Variation
JD Martinez Traded Variation
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:02 AM   #4053
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Anyone have an Arenado action FT?

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Old 03-13-2018, 10:04 AM   #4054
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Originally Posted by Darth Bryzzo View Post

I donít know this is true across the board for all players, but for Bryant and Rizzo, as examples with which Iím most familiar, this is just really baffling to me. First off, the 2018s are god awful ugly bc of the Lelandís uniforms.
For what it's worth, I showed the Bryant and Rizzo cards to some diehard Cubs fan friends who aren't collectors, and they really loved them. These aren't the kind of dudes who are going to spend that kind of money on cards, but could it be possible that not everybody hates the Leland uniforms? Doesn't explain the other ones fetching big prices, but just something I noticed.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:05 AM   #4055
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Anyone keeping track how many Ohtani red inks that have surfaced? Maybe half
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:07 AM   #4056
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I love the Cubs throwback jerseys this year on heritage...Did they just wear those once last year?
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #4057
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I love the Cubs throwback jerseys this year on heritage...Did they just wear those once last year?
Thankfully, mercifully, yes.

To each their own, for sure, but I guess I’m solidly in the Chris Sale camp in not wanting current players to be wearing uniforms with shirt collars that make them look like guys who deliver block ice from wagons pulled by horses. And that’s not to even mention that logo.....

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Old 03-13-2018, 10:24 AM   #4058
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For what it's worth, I showed the Bryant and Rizzo cards to some diehard Cubs fan friends who aren't collectors, and they really loved them. These aren't the kind of dudes who are going to spend that kind of money on cards, but could it be possible that not everybody hates the Leland uniforms? Doesn't explain the other ones fetching big prices, but just something I noticed.
Did you also show them the Chicago Whales jersey from Bryant's 2016 Throwback and the 1916 Cubs jersey from Rizzo's 2017 Throwback and ask them if they liked the Leland's jersey more than those?

In addition to the jersey issue, the 2018 Heritage Bryant is a totally uninteresting, non-action pose. Why do some many Bryant SSPs from Topps have to be of him giving high fives in the dugout? At least they often depict Rizzo batting.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:50 AM   #4059
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That doesnít totally explain current raws selling for more than older gradeds, unless you assume that the only folks interested in these are year-to-year setbuilders, which canít be the case in light of the number of star player PC focus collectors. And there are far fewer 2015 and 2016 Rizzo and Bryant throwbacks out there in total than there are dedicated collectors of those two players.

In doing some more eBay searching, there was a 2018 Alex Bregman Throwback that sold for more than I paid for the highest BGS graded 2016 Bryant (last night) + the highest or second highest graded 2015 Rizzo Throwback (several months ago). That Bregman was on a traditional auction with 13 bids, not a dumb BIN decision by one person.

I know Astros fans are all juiced up right now, but does that type of a price disparity seem sensible?

Maybe a bunch of new blood and new money is chasing these for the first time this year, which is crazily inflating the market. But there are way better long term values lurking out there right now in some of the older Throwbacks, esp when you can get gem graded for less than current raw. These new ones will be available for far less in all likelihood a couple years from now (even graded, if current experience holds true).
Throwback print runs, on the high side, are in the /25 area. do you, as a Cubs guy, buy every CUbs card that gets listed?

could be that there are other collectors out there that already have the past years, and in order to get this years, are having to pay more for them. got it, got it, need it mentality (or set builders)

yes, they may be cheaper in a few years, but they are collecting now

and i agree about "way better long term values lurking out there" and they are certainly not cards released this year lol
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:23 AM   #4060
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I am thinking BO restocks higher once the 3 cases they have available are gone.
without question it was gonna happen looking at ebay completed sales and current pricing.
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:25 AM   #4061
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Throwback print runs, on the high side, are in the /25 area. do you, as a Cubs guy, buy every CUbs card that gets listed?

could be that there are other collectors out there that already have the past years, and in order to get this years, are having to pay more for them. got it, got it, need it mentality (or set builders)

yes, they may be cheaper in a few years, but they are collecting now

and i agree about "way better long term values lurking out there" and they are certainly not cards released this year lol
I guess Iím not casually assuming there arenít more of each Throwback this year than in some recent years. But even if thatís not the case, what you are saying doesnít fully explain for me raws over gradeds. Given the demands for the new and not yet had, I would get current raw over prior raw. But current raw over prior graded prices is really surprising to me, and just frankly doesnít make economic sense to me.

But oh well, I guess. Not my money. And the imbalance allowed me to get a silly sweet deal on the best BGS 2016 Bryant current available. I will gladly take it.

For those who think a raw 2018 Lelandís Bryant is the bomb and worth upwards of $800-1000, enjoy and happy collecting.
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:31 AM   #4062
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It's still along the same lines though, if a collector or set builder already has them, they wouldn't be looking at older releases, graded or not. Last month, no one had a 2018 Throwback, they're cards that get bought up at release and rarely get sold again. Set builders aren't breaking up their set and collectors probably aren't going to let it go that quickly. I think it makes sense the new copies are going for higher than older copies (raw and graded).

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Originally Posted by Darth Bryzzo View Post
I guess Iím not casually assuming there arenít more of each Throwback this year than in some recent years. But even if thatís not the case, what you are saying doesnít fully explain for me raws over gradeds. Given the demands for the new and not yet had, I would get current raw over prior raw. But current raw over prior graded prices is really surprising to me, and just frankly doesnít make economic sense to me.

But oh well, I guess. Not my money. And the imbalance allowed me to get a silly sweet deal on the best BGS 2016 Bryant current available. I will gladly take it.

For those who think a raw 2018 Lelandís Bryant is the bomb and worth upwards of $800-1000, enjoy and happy collecting.
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:32 AM   #4063
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Originally Posted by Darth Bryzzo View Post
I guess Iím not casually assuming there arenít more of each Throwback this year than in some recent years. But even if thatís not the case, what you are saying doesnít fully explain for me raws over gradeds. Given the demands for the new and not yet had, I would get current raw over prior raw. But current raw over prior graded prices is really surprising to me, and just frankly doesnít make economic sense to me.

But oh well, I guess. Not my money. And the imbalance allowed me to get a silly sweet deal on the best BGS 2016 Bryant current available. I will gladly take it.

For those who think a raw 2018 Lelandís Bryant is the bomb and worth upwards of $800-1000, enjoy and happy collecting.
yes, i agree that is weird. glad you are able to pick up more old stuff, even if its BGS
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:02 PM   #4064
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Thankfully, mercifully, yes.

To each their own, for sure, but I guess Iím solidly in the Chris Sale camp in not wanting current players to be wearing uniforms with shirt collars that make them look like guys who deliver block ice from wagons pulled by horses. And thatís not to even mention that logo.....
chris sale complaining about jerseys again? guy is a pathetic cup cake
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:04 PM   #4065
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It's still along the same lines though, if a collector or set builder already has them, they wouldn't be looking at older releases, graded or not. Last month, no one had a 2018 Throwback, they're cards that get bought up at release and rarely get sold again. Set builders aren't breaking up their set and collectors probably aren't going to let it go that quickly. I think it makes sense the new copies are going for higher than older copies (raw and graded).
But you posit that prior years rarely come available, which should create a lot of accumulated demand for them, especially the highest graded examples. I think that assumption actually would argue against a result where current raw copies routinely outsell older (and far more scarce in terms of current availability) graded copies. Such a phenomenon should help counterbalance to at least some partial degree the excessive short term heightened demand for the new.

It’s not like the number of folks potentially chasing these is immutably fixed as of several years ago. There are always going to be new people getting into these who don’t have the prior years. I’m actually suspecting an influx of new buyers who are only focused right now on (and/or aware of) the newest stuff has a lot to do with the surprising price disparity.

Again, it’s no surprise to me that way more people are chasing the new stuff right now, and that the prices of the new stuff are going to be overly inflated as a result, compared to what they will be down the road. That happens with pretty much every hugely popular new release. But when there’s like one (if that) high graded example of older star player throwbacks on the market at the current time, I’m just really surprised so much money is just chasing the new stuff that you can buy some of the graded oldies cheaper than current raw.

But I should stop trying to make any sense of the modern baseball card market. It is a fickle and impulsive beast, for sure.

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Old 03-13-2018, 12:11 PM   #4066
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chris sale complaining about jerseys again? guy is a pathetic cup cake
No, he hasnít said anything about this recently, at least to my knowledge. I was referring to the vigilante scissors episode while he was still with the White Sox. I felt his pain on that one.
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:38 PM   #4067
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PSA has impeded a lot of business practices. What do you typically buy from Heritage releases? I only buy graded vintage and Trout/Machado but there are literally thousands of mint cards sitting out there from Heritage.
All of these were in chronological order. This may be like 80-90% of it. First price is purchase price. Second price is sale price. You can see that as you start getting into June and July, prices really start leveling off for PSA slabs. I did well with Trouts and Judges early on, but afterwards it's kind of meh.


GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Action $27.51 $59.99
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Action $27.51 $102.50
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Action $27.51 $117.50
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Action $27.51 $93.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 500 Kris Bryant Action $27.86 $89.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 500 Kris Bryant Action $27.86 $72.02
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 500 Kris Bryant Action $27.86 $71.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 427 Bryce Harper White Letter Card $50.00 $70.00

GEM MINT 10 2007 Topps Heritage Real One Autographs YM Yoan Moncada $177.61 $506.02
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Color Swap $50.61 $216.51
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Real One Autographs MT Mike Trout $302.67 $543.00
NEAR MINT-MINT 8 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Grey Back $202.61

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Real One Autographs Abe Andrew Benintendi $202.60 $350.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Real One Autographs Abe Andrew Benintendi $198.56 $222.50
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 314 Andrew Benintendi Action $37.60 $125.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 444 Gary Sanchez Blue $22.10 $75.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 314 Andrew Benintendi/Robby Scott Blue $54.61 $62.11
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 113 Alex Bregman/Yulieski Gurriel Blue $37.61 $24.50
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 500 Kris Bryant Action $32.62 $103.50
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Action $27.52 $75.00

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge/Tyler Austin Chrome Refractor $40.67 $300.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge/Tyler Austin Chrome Refractor $42.61 $300.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge/Tyler Austin Chrome Refractor $30.00 $300.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Aaron Judge/Tyler Austin Chrome $20.99 $139.50

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $65.00 $80.04
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $73.25 $79.18
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $56.10
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Blue $153.00 $312.88

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #MT Mike Trout Real One Autographs $302.68 $439.60

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage Carson Fulmer / Yoan Moncada Chrome $4.50 $19.13

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 427 Bryce Harper $5.00 $13.60
MINT 9 2017 Topps Heritage 427 Bryce Harper $5.00 $2.00
MINt 9 2017 Topps Heritage BH Bryce Harper 1968 Topps 3D $40.00 $31.82
NEAR-MT 8 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Blue $100.00 $48.59
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Chrome $12.00 $48.72
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Chrome $15.00 $60.90
MINT 9 2017 Topps Heritage 450 Mike Trout Chrome Refractor $18.00 $14.88

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #9 Aaron Judge Game Face $28.00 $79.17
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Purple $43.51 $31.00
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome $47.99 $48.29
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome $38.50 $48.29
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome $43.98 $58.29
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome $47.17 $24.13
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome $46.00 $24.13

GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $68.25 $44.68
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $88.89 $44.68
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $88.89 $44.68
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $63.76 $44.68
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $96.00 $44.69
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $90.55 $44.69
GEM MINT 10 2017 Topps Heritage #214 Aaron Judge Chrome - Refractor $51.00 $44.69
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:47 PM   #4068
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Yes and no. I don't think there are really that many collectors/set builders that are going to spend $400+ on a throwback. The ones willing to spend that kind of money on that parallel already have, when the product originally released. I think that's why you see lower prices for older years, graded or not.

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But you posit that prior years rarely come available, which should create a lot of accumulated demand for them, especially the highest graded examples. I think that assumption actually would argue against a result where current raw copies routinely outsell older (and far more scarce in terms of current availability) graded copies. Such a phenomenon should help counterbalance to at least some partial degree the excessive short term heightened demand for the new.

Itís not like the number of folks potentially chasing these is immutably fixed as of several years ago. There are always going to be new people getting into these who donít have the prior years. Iím actually suspecting an influx of new buyers who are only focused right now on (and/or aware of) the newest stuff has a lot to do with the surprising price disparity.

Again, itís no surprise to me that way more people are chasing the new stuff right now, and that the prices of the new stuff are going to be overly inflated as a result, compared to what they will be down the road. That happens with pretty much every hugely popular new release. But when thereís like one (if that) high graded example of older star player throwbacks on the market at the current time, Iím just really surprised so much money is just chasing the new stuff that you can buy some of the graded oldies cheaper than current raw.

But I should stop trying to make any sense of the modern baseball card market. It is a fickle and impulsive beast, for sure.
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Old 03-13-2018, 12:53 PM   #4069
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the jig is up lol, they no longer have the coupons attached to the blasters at target Click image for larger version

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Old 03-13-2018, 12:54 PM   #4070
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Those are generic blasters and do not have the Target exclusives.
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Old 03-13-2018, 01:00 PM   #4071
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Yes and no. I don't think there are really that many collectors/set builders that are going to spend $400+ on a throwback. The ones willing to spend that kind of money on that parallel already have, when the product originally released. I think that's why you see lower prices for older years, graded or not.
What, exactly, do you base that on? Why are Throwbacks any different than many other other scarce, high end cards that routinely sell for high three figures or low four figures years after initial release? Why do they have such an ephemeral market?

Incidentally, a quick check of eBay indicates that since mid-December, at least 9 Throwbacks from prior to this year sold above $400. Probably what you would expect: Trout, Harper, and Bryant. A couple Rizzos also sold, but under $400 (including a BGS 9.5 2017 that went for a super sorry $180). I’m not seeing any listed for $400 or above that went unsold for that entire timeframe.

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Old 03-13-2018, 01:10 PM   #4072
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Not sure about the last 2 questions but I think your research kind of proves the first point. The demand is clearly there when they are released when a handful of people are building sets and spending $400+. Once that happens, that's when you see prices soften for raw and graded like you said earlier especially a year+ down the road.

In 2016, it was hard to find any decent player under $700 when it first released since there were more people going for the set (Keith Olbermann paying basically anything helped too). They go for those high prices at release because who knows when the next one will surface. Buy it and be done with it. Throwbacks seem the most volatile SP out of Heritage every year.

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What, exactly, do you base that on? Why are Throwbacks any different than many other other scarce, high end cards that routinely sell for high three figures or low four figures years after initial release? Why do they have such an ephemeral market?
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Old 03-13-2018, 02:06 PM   #4073
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Is anyone else noticing the purple hot boxes are extra hot?
Just opened one and hit a Robles Auto, Black Refractor, Chrome Refractor, Action, magenta back, and Black Border in one box.
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Old 03-13-2018, 03:42 PM   #4074
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Just sent you a PM. I have an Arenado available if you're still looking.

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Old 03-13-2018, 04:07 PM   #4075
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Anyone keeping track how many Ohtani red inks that have surfaced? Maybe half
I count 24 that have been on ebay, plus 1 used redemption card where I'm not sure whether or not the seller already has the card. So that's over a third on ebay alone. Didn't look at serial numbers but I'm assuming no one is buying them to flip quickly.
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