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Old 04-15-2018, 02:36 PM   #26
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The breakers?
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Old 04-15-2018, 03:07 PM   #27
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Its gambling. Plain and simple.

Its fun. Plain and simple.

And like most things that are gambling, and fun, it can get you in trouble and/or become addictive.
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Old 04-15-2018, 03:22 PM   #28
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You are opening boxes and cases of cards. The odds of winning aka "coming out ahead" do not increase just because it is a group break instead of opening your own box. How many times have you opened a hobby box and come out ahead? With a group break you are spreading the cost of that same box or case thin amongst many people. Now less people have the chance of winning, but whoever does win will come out more ahead than if they opened the box themselves.

Over the years group breaks have evolved into more of a gambling Venture than they were in the beginning. It used to just be an easier way for friends to open an expensive box of cards they normally wouldn't be able to afford. Now there are people who actually try and use group breaks to make a profit as participants on a consistent basis. I have yet to meet one person that has done that successfully.

Go in knowing that you aren't going to come out on top. If you want to break even go buy singles. A group break is a fun way to open up product, to treat it as anything else is setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:28 PM   #29
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do i just have terrible luck or do 95% of people that buy into these lose money?
This is how I feel about buying boxes.
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:33 PM   #30
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My experience with Group Breaks with recent products, having not participated previously in any group break before, is that I've hit a few cards that are among my best "pulls," which I'm thankful for. Most I will keep, and there's a few I sold or had to sell already. Would not be able to afford the amount of cases busted that I bought a small fraction into for those few nice pulls. The TRUE trick here is sticking to a budget, being clear about what the goals are for joining any group break, and being disciplined, that is if you want to keep any of the cards. 1-Do not go for more chances just because you do hit a big card. And 2-Do not get rattled when you get nothing in a break, and instead watch a few others get all the big hits. Each break is totally independent of any other, but sometimes there's an impression of being on a hot streak/cold streak. Neither really exists. You'll lose more often than not. That's a fact.

Can the average collector hold off on joining more breaks if they do hit a relatively big, desired card, and just want the good luck to continue? And not keep buying if they seem to be continually striking out and feel their luck is about to change on the very next one? Staying disciplined to the original goals, plans, and budget makes all the difference.

It does end up costing quite a bit just to be able to participate. The hits you end up with, if not careful, will be offset by entry prices in hitless breaks. The best hope for any success is to only join products upon initial release, or well in advance, and get in early, before those case prices go up. That price spike increases risk and trickles down to the cost of each team, division, hit draft, random serial # etc.

The cards received from the breaks do feel more special as being one's own card (technically the breaker pulls them, but you can watch and there's usually a video record).

By the end, someone would have likely been better off just buying the huge singles they are after off eBay. Yes, technically you can come out slightly ahead, but only if: a collector is strategic, disciplined, and sticks to a plan. For instance, had a monster Chiefs NT break here. However, those big Chiefs hits were minimized by the two other Chiefs breaks I paid for from before that got nothing, and by the one Chiefs break I did following the good one that also got zero. In hindsight, I would have never joined the break following the successful one, as I already invested in 3 breaks, and was fortunate enough to do well in one. It's too hard to do well in just one break, to expect similar results in any future ones. Another lesson to be aware of is to only do these through Blowout member Group Case Breaks, especially Houdini, or a smaller site any of the BO members here may host. Had no success haphazardly joining a few large group breaking sites.
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:38 PM   #31
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A Poopnini Group Break would have to be somewhere in Dante's Circles of Hell.
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:57 PM   #32
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The cost of one pack of cards at your local hobby shop is about ten bucks, A full box will cost you around 200. A premium team in a case break is like buying a box of cards, A second tier team is like buying a few packs. In my opinion buying into breaks is so much better then spending that kind of money on one box of cards or a few packs. I can't count how many times as a kid I spent 30 bucks here and there on a handful of packs with nothing really to show for it. Odds are much better to hit a nice card in a full case worth of product. Obviously your odds get much worse when you are buying into expensive one box product breaks like flawless. 150.00 for a spot is a real gamble. One or two good cards in that box. So you have to be top two out of 30 teams to even make your spot price back. I guess if I had money to blow I would do it just for the fun chase
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Old 04-15-2018, 05:11 PM   #33
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I didn't keep stats or data or anything but here was my strategy for doing group breaks, I think I came out decent. I did the math some times and saw that the breakers on eBay were always coming out behind, not sure how or why they kept doing it. I'd add all the teams up for say a case of Prizm and the total was $1200 without fees, supplies, shipping etc and the case itself cost $1350 and they had all the liability. I'm not really sure what they were doing?

Anyways, I always tried to get into group breaks when there were eBay bucks available, I got into several between 8%-10% back which was very nice. I always tried to buy each and every team as long as the average ended up being less than the case price divided by the number of teams. For a while, the cases were say $1350, so divided by 32 teams each team was $42.18. I really liked ripping cases but this was so much more time efficient because they ripped and sleeved and top loaded everything for me. I didn't have trash to clean up, no supplies to buy etc.

So knowing that each team was $42.18 I could always get the Falcons, Cardinals, Ravens etc for like $12 a piece which again was super nice, becuase in the Prizm cases you're going to get that back pretty easily with all the #d cards and that, plus the eBay bucks back if they were applicable. This also allowed me to spend more money to get the Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans etc in the breaks. If I ended up with 24 teams in the eBay auction breaks, if my total was less than $1012.32 after shipping (24x42.18) I'd come out ahead, plus the eBay bucks. Most of the time I could get the averages down to $25-30 a piece depending on the seller with getting the top tier teams like the Steelers, Jags, Chiefs, etc. Several times I'd pay $800 for 24 teams shipping plus the supplies that come with them AND like $60 in eBay bucks back. This added up overtime and was able to liquidate my eBay bucks for cash. You can come out ahead but there is a lot of strategy at times. Spectra was the same way for a while.

Now I saw that Prizm cases were $2400 or so (which is ridiculous!) so no way you could come out ahead, especially because the singles are not close to selling that much.

Who knows, seems like no one wins money wise in this business, it's obviously a hobby. Blowout, Steel City, DA Card World obviously come out ahead and so does Panini (not sure for how long). I think a big bubble/bust is coming for the card company especially with all the player worn/game used jersey and patch cards, sticker autos etc. I don't see this really being around in a couple years, WAY too saturated.

EDIT: I forgot to add that I churn credit cards too so was getting the sign on bonuses with them ($200 back on $500 spend sometimes) and 2x back on everything else.
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Old 04-15-2018, 05:41 PM   #34
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I didn't keep stats or data or anything but here was my strategy for doing group breaks, I think I came out decent. I did the math some times and saw that the breakers on eBay were always coming out behind, not sure how or why they kept doing it. I'd add all the teams up for say a case of Prizm and the total was $1200 without fees, supplies, shipping etc and the case itself cost $1350 and they had all the liability. I'm not really sure what they were doing?

Anyways, I always tried to get into group breaks when there were eBay bucks available, I got into several between 8%-10% back which was very nice. I always tried to buy each and every team as long as the average ended up being less than the case price divided by the number of teams. For a while, the cases were say $1350, so divided by 32 teams each team was $42.18. I really liked ripping cases but this was so much more time efficient because they ripped and sleeved and top loaded everything for me. I didn't have trash to clean up, no supplies to buy etc.

So knowing that each team was $42.18 I could always get the Falcons, Cardinals, Ravens etc for like $12 a piece which again was super nice, becuase in the Prizm cases you're going to get that back pretty easily with all the #d cards and that, plus the eBay bucks back if they were applicable. This also allowed me to spend more money to get the Chiefs, Jaguars, Texans etc in the breaks. If I ended up with 24 teams in the eBay auction breaks, if my total was less than $1012.32 after shipping (24x42.18) I'd come out ahead, plus the eBay bucks. Most of the time I could get the averages down to $25-30 a piece depending on the seller with getting the top tier teams like the Steelers, Jags, Chiefs, etc. Several times I'd pay $800 for 24 teams shipping plus the supplies that come with them AND like $60 in eBay bucks back. This added up overtime and was able to liquidate my eBay bucks for cash. You can come out ahead but there is a lot of strategy at times. Spectra was the same way for a while.

Now I saw that Prizm cases were $2400 or so (which is ridiculous!) so no way you could come out ahead, especially because the singles are not close to selling that much.

Who knows, seems like no one wins money wise in this business, it's obviously a hobby. Blowout, Steel City, DA Card World obviously come out ahead and so does Panini (not sure for how long). I think a big bubble/bust is coming for the card company especially with all the player worn/game used jersey and patch cards, sticker autos etc. I don't see this really being around in a couple years, WAY too saturated.

EDIT: I forgot to add that I churn credit cards too so was getting the sign on bonuses with them ($200 back on $500 spend sometimes) and 2x back on everything else.
Interesting... thanks for sharing.
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Old 04-15-2018, 05:51 PM   #35
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There is a reason why the same certain teams from various products are always sold out within seconds of the product being put into a stores. Most of the time you are subsidizing someone else's risk by taking the small teams. The big teams for hits are the way to go.

For example in 17 draft. Avg spot is like $50. You are better off buying 5 base autos of the player than getting them in the PYT. The big hit teams are the teams worth buying because you save yourself the money chasing them by personal cases.

Same thing in NT football. $90 for a team or just buy most of the cards for that team?

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Old 04-15-2018, 06:46 PM   #36
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Doing an experiment with about 18 cases of Bowman 2017 Draft paper base.

It's about the closest I have come to breaking even.

Completely sort a set or two an hour on average.

Spent around $900 including 200 count boxes used for shipping. An average of about 2 cents a card, and flipped at 4 cents after fees.

Should net around 210 sets

I've been slowly selling sets and player lots. Goal is 100 sets sold (25 having sold thus far over 30 days)

Leaves me with about 100 each of every player.

Player lots... Sold 100 Acuna for $120. Others from $2 to $15 per player 100 count lot. Still many more to go.

About a third of the way to break even (net fees) and it's already been a long slog.

Looking at 70+ hours it will take to complete the project.

Turns a hobby in to a J.O.B. in a real hurry.

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Old 04-15-2018, 08:20 PM   #37
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There's a lot of different factors at play. The biggest one is the team and player(s) you're going after. If you pick the right product and the right player you can do ok. You have to buy a lot of breaks of the same product and the same team. For instance i bought tons of 2015 contenders breaks, i kind of new the collation. Every case would have 2 of the big 4 names in that years draft on average. So every other case i would hit the player i was after on average. Sometimes back to back or sometimes youd go 3 cases in a row and get blanked. But the average odds were about 50% chance of hitting the card you were after. That was the basic rookie ticket. Sometimes you'd hit a championship ticket or a variation or a cracked ice if you were real lucky. You'd have to see what the singles are selling for and if you could buy it for less than 2 group breaks. The big name players always sell for the most but are also the most expensive teams. If you think the player is going to be really good and you plan on holding for a couple years it can work out pretty good. But there's always chance the player doesn't pan out either. Anyway, that's how i used to do it. I haven't bought any group breaks in a couple years but when i did i bought alot. It can get expensive real quick.
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Old 04-15-2018, 10:12 PM   #38
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i kept going tonight cause it fun. took the chiefs over the texans and then pops a watson rpa /10.. great luck lol
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Old 04-16-2018, 01:10 AM   #39
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Ahead as in doing better than what you would spend to buy the cards as singles on ebay?

Sometimes. And there are also a bunch of cards I've hit that are 1/1s or other very rare cards that might have gone straight into someone else's PC if I didn't buy into the break.

Ahead as in doing better than you would expect to by buying random packs or boxes of the product?

Yes. Normally.
I focus on low-risk products and look for good buys on undervalued teams or players.
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Old 04-16-2018, 10:54 AM   #40
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i kept going tonight cause it fun. took the chiefs over the texans and then pops a watson rpa /10.. great luck lol
LOL. I had that luck this weekend going after some Flawless.

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Old 04-16-2018, 11:39 AM   #41
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LOL. I had that luck this weekend going after some Flawless.

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I melted. Easy $350 on that card. I ended up with nada hahah
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Old 04-16-2018, 12:16 PM   #42
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I've walked out of a casino $10,500 richer before. But I have also walked out $1,000 poorer plenty of times.

But the thrill of that $10K+ day sees me continuing to press my luck.

This is no different. It is entertainment with the chance to win more then your bet.
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Old 04-16-2018, 02:09 PM   #43
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I've walked out of a casino $10,500 richer before. But I have also walked out $1,000 poorer plenty of times.

But the thrill of that $10K+ day sees me continuing to press my luck.

This is no different. It is entertainment with the chance to win more then your bet.
Is it odd that I've NEVER gone into a casino and dropped more than 20 bucks in my life (I'll be 40 next year), yet I spend a BUNCH of money on breaks and retail boxes? LOL
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Old 04-19-2018, 08:41 AM   #44
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Depends on the product for me. High end? NEVER comes close. The Packers rarely hit well, and that's exacerbated in the high end stuff. Lower end stuff? I actually usually break even more often than not. Prizm especially. I've had good luck with contenders as well. But, I'm still WAY in the positive overall with my two best group break hits: a 2013 Contenders MVP Contenders Aaron Rodgers auto /25 and a 2013 Five Star Aaron Rodgers patch auto /75. Both of those were small breaks (3 boxes each iirc) and paid less than 30 to get into both lol I've definitely been skunked too (looking at you 2012 Limited - 8 full cases and got 2 numbered base and one favre parallel.... Ugh)


Omg same I feel like the packers never hit!


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Old 04-19-2018, 09:04 AM   #45
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It really depends on what you are trying to do in the Hobby. Group breaks for high end products are truly a gamble where you can boom or bust depending on your team.

Mid end products seem to do a little better, and lower end products have the greatest chance for you to break even or finish a little ahead. However, lower end products likely lack that "monster" hit that can put you way ahead.

Something I have been going with more recently is serial number breaks, especially for products like the recent Leaf metal draft and Elite Draft. A case of Leaf has 75 hits, and elite has 90 autos and about 70 Serial numbered cards. With a 10 spot serial number break you have a great shot at getting a bunch of cards as well as a shot at every big card hit.

As someone mentioned before on the forums if you are looking to flip the goal is keep it where you can recover your money as quickly as possible and move on.

Its a lot easier to get your money back on a break when your DCA(dollar cost average) to achieve your return is $5-10 hit versus $100-200.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:22 AM   #46
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Omg same I feel like the packers never hit!


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I hit this in a $40 Packers GB
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:33 AM   #47
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I hit this in a $40 Packers GB
Attachment 413847
I'm not trying to say it NEVER happens, but it seems that no matter where I break, the Packers are almost always the odd man out. There will be a crappy low end auto (like Malachi Dupre), and a few higher numbered base parallels. I believe that Panini sends the known breakers cases that have the hot rookies in them (I can't tell you how many times I saw Hunt, Trubisky, Mahomes, or Fornette being hit in Prizm breaks) and then rarely hit any good vets or low numbered other cards that aren't scrubs. The Packers, unfortunately, have only had one big name rookie since 2009 (Lacy), so their rookies haven't been considered highly collectable for almost a decade, except for lacy from 14, which is when I had my best luck in Contenders (one Lacy base Rookie Ticket AND a variation playoff ticket in the same case).

Now, the ones I've had REALLY good luck with are ones where the breaker got the case from a local card shop, so it seems almost like Panini sends out the Packers hits in cases that don't go to breakers. To be honest, this actually gets people who always get the Packers in breaks to spend more, and the Packers in certain breaks are always relatively expensive if they have decent hits, so when I was breaking *all the time* (like the 2012 Limited breaks I was mentioning), I would buy a bunch of breaks trying to get something and a lot of them netted nothing. So, I would buy into another break just to try to have something to show for the money I spent on those breaks, and would continue to get skunked. Definitely don't do that anymore.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:35 AM   #48
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I'm a team collector so I feel I always come out ahead.

The reason I come out ahead is because I buy mostly singles but also some boxes.

If I'm after Broncos I'm better off buying into a group case break at around 25-70 depending on the product than spending 100+ for a single box and getting mostly garbage.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:39 AM   #49
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I know a lot of people like random group breaks because they're cheaper, but those never appealed to me. If im going to spend money i want to know that if i hit im going to get someone i want. I don't care about any of the other teams or players, im a pc collector. I always did team or player group breaks.
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Old 04-19-2018, 09:44 AM   #50
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I know a lot of people like random group breaks because they're cheaper, but those never appealed to me. If im going to spend money i want to know that if i hit im going to get someone i want. I don't care about any of the other teams or players, im a pc collector. I always did team or player group breaks.
I've found that random breaks are really good if your team is rather expensive during normal team breaks. Most times, if you get a decent team in the random, you can trade for the team you want, so the cost is a bit lower than getting the team normally. 2014 was like that for me, since everybody wanted Eddie Lacy stuff. Got in on a couple randoms to try to get the Packers, then traded for them when I got another big team at the time.

It was also really good when more people were trading more than buying. I had several times where I knew a product didn't have good Packers stuff, but had other teams that had a bunch of stuff so that I could have trade bait. I had several Tannehill autos I traded off and got some decent Packers stuff for from some random breaks where I got the Dolphins. Not to many people doing only trading anymore to warrant that much unfortunately.
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