Will Topps cut back production since the 2019 rookie class is weaker? - Page 2

speedyjg13 · 11-12-2018, 10:51 AM

Will Jo Adell be a late addition like Soto? Or just wishful thinking?

anusinha · 11-12-2018, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Will Jo Adell be a late addition like Soto? Or just wishful thinking?

He's pretty far from being called up, so Id assume early 2020 would be the first time you see him in Topps

Soxfanguy · 11-12-2018, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickM

You can't easily push up the release dates on products. You need to have your hits taken care of so you're not releasing a product chock full of redemptions.

But they are already full of redemptions though

griffan15 · 11-12-2018, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

2019 will be brutal, but that is a good thing. Too many new breakers went to market this year hoping to make a fortune and it really depressed the market. We've seen this twice in the last 10 years though. A lot of people will go out of business in 2019 and production will decrease in 2020. The cycle will start again and we'll be having this discussion again in 2024-25.

Nailed it here, but I would say this happens more often than you think and it actually benefits people who are more patient.

I'm talking about flagship products with RC logos, not prospect products.

2010-2012 gave us Strasburg, Harper, Darvish and Trout, so the market was oversaturated in 2013-2014. The main RCs at release were Machado, Xander, Jose Abreu, Degrom and Tanaka (I can't remember the others, but I'm sure I'm missing some). People complained the class wasn't better.

Fast forward to today and we see guys like Betts, Arenado, Yelich and Jose Ramirez emerge from these releases and now outsell Xander, Manny. Abreu and Tanaka.

2015 gave us Bryant, Correa and Lindor, so 2016 was considered "weak" with Gary Sanchez, Schwarber, Seager and Trea Turner getting their turn as the hobby darlings at release. Again, people complained, but we will continue to see guys like Snell, Nola and a few more sleepers emerge in time.

So time will tell who else will emerge from 2015-today and who the sleepers will be in 2019 and beyond.

oddstuff · 11-12-2018, 11:53 AM

Think the only way the print run will be lower is if the product is not bought. All the sellers between Topps and the final end buyer will keep purchasing products from Topps until the end buyers stop buying. It will be interesting to see what happens to the products that come out prior to May (or longer), the stuff that could not include Vlad Jr yet. If that stuff is mass produced without players to drive sales, a lot of the product may sit in retailers storage for a while.

blackbears86 · 11-12-2018, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickM

You can't easily push up the release dates on products. You need to have your hits taken care of so you're not releasing a product chock full of redemptions.

That hasn't stopped topps before

blackbears86 · 11-12-2018, 12:07 PM

I haven't really read into the 2019 rookies besides a few of the big guys, and it seems they will be arriving later in the year.

Is there really no major rookie driving flagship series 1 in 2019?

anusinha · 11-12-2018, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I haven't really read into the 2019 rookies besides a few of the big guys, and it seems they will be arriving later in the year.

Is there really no major rookie driving flagship series 1 in 2019?

I cant really think of any major player who will have a RC in Series 1. S1 will sell well at first, but theres always tons of it around. In a month distributors will be begging you to take it off their hands at/below cost

mainerunr · 11-12-2018, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

As long as MLBPA agrees, then yes. Schwarber was pushed into 2016 even though he was rookie eligible in 2015. Ohtani was set for 2018 whether he played a single game or not. Vlad Jr. could be next.

Yeah but Ohtani had a major league contract and the expectation was that he would start in the MLB. Vlad is going through the same process as any other typical prospect.

I would expect Vlad later in the year.

Dbacksbaseball · 11-12-2018, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

I cant really think of any major player who will have a RC in Series 1. S1 will sell well at first, but theres always tons of it around. In a month distributors will be begging you to take it off their hands at/below cost

Yup as you said on the first page. We need a down year to re-establish the market. Hasn't been a bad rookie class in a while.

FT35 · 11-12-2018, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

no need, it will all sell out

Absolutely. The subplot that could develop with a smaller rookie class is that you could see people focusing on key star cards more, or you could see a slight bump in past year's rookies. Either way, the 2019 products WILL sell. Honestly, Vlad Jr. alone could be enough to carry a smaller rookie class in my opinion! It might be more boom/bust as there just aren't many consolation prizes as strong as this year's Albies, Robles, Buehler...etc if you DON'T hit on Vlad Jr.

How many Judge-chasers last year found a nice stack of Bregman cards in a "commons" box this year!? Someone will emerge and that's why it will sell out.

Cubsfanp · 11-12-2018, 03:52 PM

2017 wasn't supposed to be a big year at the beginning either, and we all know how it ended up.

Someone will break out and help drive product. Happens every year. Could be something like the 2013 Puig-mania.

blackbears86 · 11-12-2018, 04:30 PM

We have all been pretty spoiled by not just one "hot" rookie but usually 2 or 3 (or more!) over the last several years in a row.

I'd like to see what happens next year if there truly is no rookie setting the pace and how it impacts the industry.

We are going to find out soon.

AwesomeBrian · 11-12-2018, 06:24 PM

2019 Bowman will have Soto RC autos

I'm guessing then Chrome will have Vlad and Eloy RC autos

Vlad and Eloy Series 2 RC's? Or not till Update?

speedyjg13 · 11-12-2018, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AwesomeBrian

2019 Bowman will have Soto RC autos

I'm guessing then Chrome will have Vlad and Eloy RC autos

Vlad and Eloy Series 2 RC's? Or not till Update?

You sure about this?

psd2k10 · 11-12-2018, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cavaliercards

The licenses and what occurs is heavily regulated by the licensing arms of the sports.

This is correct. For example: agreement requires Topps to produce and NOT EXCEED X number of products per year. I dont know what that number is but knowing how Topps is starting to over produce, they would probably bring out more product lines if it wasn't for these regulations!!

psd2k10 · 11-12-2018, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

You sure about this?

i dont think he is sure about this. Soto missed the boat with Bowman products; which is why his topps chrome update is going to be a huge hit!

StevenTormollan · 11-12-2018, 07:34 PM

LOL is this even a question?

No they're not making less cards.

They're the only producer of MLB cards, everyone wants the stuff, Bowman, Topps, etc... if they can sell products out and people are buying the stuff... the printing presses run.

Don't expect 2019 cards to be somehow "shorter printed" just because the rookie class might be weaker. Believe me, someone will be hyped, hot rookies will emerge, rookie class will be just fine.

DaRitz · 11-12-2018, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oddstuff

Think the only way the print run will be lower is if the product is not bought. All the sellers between Topps and the final end buyer will keep purchasing products from Topps until the end buyers stop buying. ... If that stuff is mass produced without players to drive sales, a lot of the product may sit in retailers storage for a while.

Exactly. They're a business, trying to maximize profits.

They'll keep producing until the stuff is left sitting on the shelves. Bad S1 sales could lead to smaller production runs in the later stuff.

But who was the draw to S1 this season? Robles and Albies? Devers? I don't see a big dropoff in S1 compared to this season.

Print, baby, print! They know you gotta sell while the market is hot!

LVDan · 11-12-2018, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaRitz

Exactly. They're a business, trying to maximize profits.

They'll keep producing until the stuff is left sitting on the shelves. Bad S1 sales could lead to smaller production runs in the later stuff.

But who was the draw to S1 this season? Robles and Albies? Devers? I don't see a big dropoff in S1 compared to this season.

Print, baby, print! They know you gotta sell while the market is hot!

Robles Devers and Albies will look like Bonds, McGwire and Griffey when we see the RCs in series 1.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ThoseBackPages · 11-12-2018, 09:00 PM

S1 needs no help in selling

#SpringFever

KhalDrogo · 11-12-2018, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LVDan

Robles Devers and Albies will look like Bonds, McGwire and Griffey when we see the RCs in series 1.

Kopech, Tucker, Sheffield, Urias, Touki

Those are the higher tier guys I can think of that didn't have a 2018 RC. Not looking good. Urias is solid, but he's got the whole San Diego thing against him. Kopech coming off TJ. Tucker was awful in his call up. Touki and Sheffield have the goods, but aren't going to move the hobby needle.

rwperu34 · 11-12-2018, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaRitz

Exactly. They're a business, trying to maximize profits.

They'll keep producing until the stuff is left sitting on the shelves. Bad S1 sales could lead to smaller production runs in the later stuff.

But who was the draw to S1 this season? Robles and Albies? Devers? I don't see a big dropoff in S1 compared to this season.

Print, baby, print! They know you gotta sell while the market is hot!

Hoskins and Devers were the top two and both were more hyped than Tucker. Heck, even Austin Hays was probably a wash with Tucker. Then after those top three, you had very high quality depth. 2019 S1 is going to be a turd as far as RC go.

cardmole · 11-13-2018, 12:22 AM

I'm happy my bank account gets a break next year.....
Except Bowman Megas of course!

CharlieHustle · 11-13-2018, 03:27 AM

2012 Topps S1 had nothing. Nothing.
And it was one of the heaviest print runs, I believe of the last 10-15 years.
When Topps has no rookie class to pump products, they hit you with a random insert or parallel to drive sales. If nothing else, they'll announce a surprise wrapper redemption that has Willie Mays autos in it, or something similar.

11-12-2018, 03:52 PM	#37
Cubsfanp Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Indiana Posts: 2,095 wrigleyville2007 Cubsfanp	2017 wasn't supposed to be a big year at the beginning either, and we all know how it ended up. Someone will break out and help drive product. Happens every year. Could be something like the 2013 Puig-mania. __________________ That. Just. Happened.

11-12-2018, 09:00 PM	#46
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 82,882 ThoseBackPages	S1 needs no help in selling #SpringFever __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

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11-12-2018, 10:51 AM	#26
speedyjg13 Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 16,712	Will Jo Adell be a late addition like Soto? Or just wishful thinking?

11-12-2018, 11:53 AM	#30
oddstuff Member Join Date: Dec 2017 Location: CA Posts: 4,616	Think the only way the print run will be lower is if the product is not bought. All the sellers between Topps and the final end buyer will keep purchasing products from Topps until the end buyers stop buying. It will be interesting to see what happens to the products that come out prior to May (or longer), the stuff that could not include Vlad Jr yet. If that stuff is mass produced without players to drive sales, a lot of the product may sit in retailers storage for a while.

11-12-2018, 12:07 PM	#32
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 16,053 blackbears86	I haven't really read into the 2019 rookies besides a few of the big guys, and it seems they will be arriving later in the year. Is there really no major rookie driving flagship series 1 in 2019?

11-12-2018, 04:30 PM	#38
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 16,053 blackbears86	We have all been pretty spoiled by not just one "hot" rookie but usually 2 or 3 (or more!) over the last several years in a row. I'd like to see what happens next year if there truly is no rookie setting the pace and how it impacts the industry. We are going to find out soon.

11-12-2018, 06:24 PM	#39
AwesomeBrian Member Join Date: Feb 2018 Location: NE O-H-I-O Posts: 4,417	2019 Bowman will have Soto RC autos I'm guessing then Chrome will have Vlad and Eloy RC autos Vlad and Eloy Series 2 RC's? Or not till Update?

11-12-2018, 07:34 PM	#43
StevenTormollan Banned Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: United States Posts: 2,296	LOL is this even a question? No they're not making less cards. They're the only producer of MLB cards, everyone wants the stuff, Bowman, Topps, etc... if they can sell products out and people are buying the stuff... the printing presses run. Don't expect 2019 cards to be somehow "shorter printed" just because the rookie class might be weaker. Believe me, someone will be hyped, hot rookies will emerge, rookie class will be just fine.

11-13-2018, 12:22 AM	#49
cardmole Member Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: Redondo Beach Posts: 3,266	I'm happy my bank account gets a break next year..... Except Bowman Megas of course!

11-13-2018, 03:27 AM	#50
CharlieHustle Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 2,532 nvsportscards702	2012 Topps S1 had nothing. Nothing. And it was one of the heaviest print runs, I believe of the last 10-15 years. When Topps has no rookie class to pump products, they hit you with a random insert or parallel to drive sales. If nothing else, they'll announce a surprise wrapper redemption that has Willie Mays autos in it, or something similar.