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Old 02-18-2016, 04:04 PM   #1
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Default How do you forecast Bryce Harpers 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto RC's pricing?

I was wondering what everyone though on this as it seems like everyone is buying him up.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:16 PM   #2
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I think he's a tough buy right now…I was just looking at Trouts sold 09 Bowman Chrome gems on eBay..the most recent ones going between $1400-1700…now with people buying Harpers at around $850-900…I personally don't see the value in buying just to have a chance to make around double of the investment (albeit a very good chance, so I definitely understand why there are a lot of buyers of him out there)….trading towards Harper makes more sense to me, not necessarily buying…on the other hand, Harper is one of the game's best players and like everybody is saying, once he becomes a Yankee in 2018, he might surpass Trout entirely and then all of a sudden his base gem is $2250-2500. That's just my 2 cents, and certainly respect all people's strategies/opinions on this.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:29 PM   #3
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Harper will be a red Sox.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:41 PM   #4
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Unto infinity.

Peeps keep thinking there will be a limit.

See Mantle's 51 Bowman and 52 Topps. Surprisingly many PSA/BVG slabs exist, over a thousand easy. Many examples pushing 5, 6 figures.

Were they that $$$$$$ while Mantle was still playing? Hell no. That's where Harper and Trouty are now. Big difference being, Harper is not chained to the Angels.

Never underestimate mass, region-transcending idolatry and nostalgia. Collectors of the future gonna have even deeper pockets than today's.
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Old 02-18-2016, 04:54 PM   #5
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So why can't chrome Harpers surpass the chrome trout in price?
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:27 PM   #6
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Over-under on Harper threads opened over the next few weeks?
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:30 PM   #7
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So why can't chrome Harpers surpass the chrome trout in price?
Scarcity would be my guess. If they continue to perform as this generation's Mantle/Mays, I think Trout's retains a higher value. Harper has been signing boatloads of stuff since he was 16.

The only licensed prospect/rookie Trout stuff is BC 09, Sterling 09, Platinum 10, Finest 11, Sterling 11. (might be forgetting 1) His Finest Super just went for 16K.

Harper, on the other hand, probably has 10X that starting with 2010 Sterling 60th anniversary autos. Not to Mention 11 Bowman, 11 BC, 11 BDPP, 11 Sterling, 12 Bowman retail, 12 BC, 12BDPP, 12 Finest, 12 Five Star, 12 TTT, and so on.

I just think there are too many other choices if somebody wants a Harper RC. Personally, I scooped up a Finest Auto a couple of years ago and am happy with it. I'd obviously want a BC, but I don't have that kind of money to tie up. If somebody wants a Trout auto RC, there aren't that many choices out there.
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:35 PM   #8
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Scarcity would be my guess. If they continue to perform as this generation's Mantle/Mays, I think Trout's retains a higher value. Harper has been signing boatloads of stuff since he was 16.

The only licensed prospect/rookie Trout stuff is BC 09, Sterling 09, Platinum 10, Finest 11, Sterling 11. (might be forgetting 1) His Finest Super just went for 16K.

Harper, on the other hand, probably has 10X that starting with 2010 Sterling 60th anniversary autos. Not to Mention 11 Bowman, 11 BC, 11 BDPP, 11 Sterling, 12 Bowman retail, 12 BC, 12BDPP, 12 Finest, 12 Five Star, 12 TTT, and so on.

I just think there are too many other choices if somebody wants a Harper RC. Personally, I scooped up a Finest Auto a couple of years ago and am happy with it. I'd obviously want a BC, but I don't have that kind of money to tie up. If somebody wants a Trout auto RC, there aren't that many choices out there.
Yes, there are many Harper autos out there, but there is only one indisputable best Harper card out there just as there is only one best trout card out there. And they are printed in equivalent quantities. I can turn this argument around on you and say that despite the large number of Harper autos out there, he still sells at that high of a price, so Harper's ceiling is higher than that of trout, price-wise.
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:40 PM   #9
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Harper's value is steadily increasing in large part because of the crappy razz market. This is something I DO NOT participate in and believe it is a cancer to this hobby. In my opinion this is artificial inflation based on that and since the razzes are filling instantly the people that razz them are buying them and making their money. Last year we saw similar artificial bumps to the Bryant Chrome Auto (upto $800+) and Andrew Luck Contenders Gem ($2000+) markets and look at them now. The ADHD in that part of the market is strong and if/when Harper suffers his annual injury they will come plummeting back to earth. To me he is very far from a strong buy at all right now but I'm sure there is room for profit if you are looking to flip to a razzer or razz it yourself.
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta View Post
Yes, there are many Harper autos out there, but there is only one indisputable best Harper card out there just as there is only one best trout card out there. And they are printed in equivalent quantities. I can turn this argument around on you and say that despite the large number of Harper autos out there, he still sells at that high of a price, so Harper's ceiling is higher than that of trout, price-wise.
Definitely not saying they can't. If Harper ends up in NY and Trout stays in LA, Harper probably passes him, if on-field production stays relatively the same. Mays was a better player than Mantle IMO, but Mantle is the undisputed #1 guy in the hobby from that era.

Not really looking to argue, just giving some factors for why I think Trout's value will stay higher. I think Harper has the higher "legend" potential, just like Mantle, if you will. SI cover at 15 or 16, #1 Pick, sometimes controversial, etc. Meanwhile Trout gets forgotten sometimes, probably should be a 4X MVP at this point. That is the factor that would drive it higher for me. Currently, Trout still sells at almost twice the price of Harper, so Harper still has a ways to go.
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Old 02-18-2016, 05:43 PM   #11
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To be fair, I find it very hard to add more Harpers esp. via purchase because when I bought in it was at a way lower price point than now.
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:12 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta View Post
Yes, there are many Harper autos out there, but there is only one indisputable best Harper card out there just as there is only one best trout card out there. And they are printed in equivalent quantities. I can turn this argument around on you and say that despite the large number of Harper autos out there, he still sells at that high of a price, so Harper's ceiling is higher than that of trout, price-wise.
If you weren't aware, the print run for '09 draft was ~2450 cases compared to ~6000 '11 bowman chrome cases.
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:27 AM   #13
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He gets jumped by three members of the bullpen and breaks a hand on the back of papelbon's head during preseason. Misses half the year and base chrome drops to $400 by all-star break.
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Old 02-19-2016, 11:39 AM   #14
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If you weren't aware, the print run for '09 draft was ~2450 cases compared to ~6000 '11 bowman chrome cases.
I also wanted to remind you that there are only 22 subjects in the 2009 auto checklist compared to 37 in the 2011 checklist. If you factor in that 2009 cases yielded 16 chrome autos per case and 2011 only 12, you really only have about a 5% increase in your average base chrome auto production, which by my definition is just about equivalent, though no one can really know for sure the exact print runs of each card. My point is that the trout is not significantly less produced than the Harper to explain the price differential.

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Old 02-19-2016, 12:20 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta View Post
I also wanted to remind you that there are only 22 subjects in the 2009 auto checklist compared to 37 in the 2011 checklist. If you factor in that 2009 cases yielded 16 chrome autos per case and 2011 only 12, you really only have about a 5% increase in your average base chrome auto production, which by my definition is just about equivalent, though no one can really know for sure the exact print runs of each card. My point is that the trout is not significantly less produced than the Harper to explain the price differential.
An interesting insight regarding base auto print runs for Trout's '09 draft and Harper's '11 chrome (since we already know serial # print runs):

Trout - 481 base autos graded by BGS
Harper - 1,093 base autos graded by BGS

Of course there have been resubs and crossovers from PSA, but the disparity is still quite large.
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Old 02-19-2016, 12:24 PM   #16
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I was curious and looked at PSA as well:

Trout - 74
Harper - 159
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Old 02-19-2016, 12:40 PM   #17
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Here is another recent thread; http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...1k-season.html
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Old 02-19-2016, 12:44 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjorgen5 View Post
An interesting insight regarding base auto print runs for Trout's '09 draft and Harper's '11 chrome (since we already know serial # print runs):

Trout - 481 base autos graded by BGS
Harper - 1,093 base autos graded by BGS

Of course there have been resubs and crossovers from PSA, but the disparity is still quite large.
All these numbers just tell me that bgs is more popular than psa for grading chrome cards and that there is a greater number of Harper turnover than trout for sub bumps and regrades. By your logic are you suggesting they produced more Harper's than Starling marte autos in 2011 and that marte chrome autos are rarer than 2009 trouts? Only 158 marte's have been graded by bgs.

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Old 02-19-2016, 12:45 PM   #19
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Quote:
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And a poll from the week before:

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/b...edictions.html
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:13 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta View Post
All these numbers just tell me that bgs is more popular than psa for grading chrome cards and that there is a greater number of Harper turnover than trout for sub bumps and regrades. By your logic are you suggesting they produced more Harper's than Starling marte autos in 2011 and that marte chrome autos are rarer than 2009 trouts? Only 158 marte's have been graded by bgs.
PSA ratio submissions were right in line with BGS.

Obviously I'm not suggesting pop reports signify total print runs for base autos...you're well aware that the most prominent players will be submitted much more vs. lesser prospects...Schwarber's '14 base auto has been submitted 727 times vs. Lemond's 7 times...

As for resubmissions, if you'd like to sincerely believe that ~ the same number of Harper cards have simply been regraded 600+ times, then that's your opinion.
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:26 PM   #21
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PSA ratio submissions were right in line with BGS.

Obviously I'm not suggesting pop reports signify total print runs for base autos...you're well aware that the most prominent players will be submitted much more vs. lesser prospects...Schwarber's '14 base auto has been submitted 727 times vs. Lemond's 7 times...

As for resubmissions, if you'd like to sincerely believe that ~ the same number of Harper cards have simply been regraded 600+ times, then that's your opinion.
And if you truly believe twice as many Harper base chrome autos were produced compared to trout base chrome autos, then you are entitled to your opinion as well. I believe trouts are scarcer than harpers, but not by two-fold as you might suggest based on production numbers.

Getting back to my main point, despite the higher number of Harper chrome autos out there, and your opinion benefits my case as well, Harper autos are fast approaching trout levels, so that tells you where the money is going.
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:30 PM   #22
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Harper will be a red Sox.
And Trout will be a Yankee, stars will explode and the universe will have baseball again.
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Old 02-19-2016, 01:45 PM   #23
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Quote:
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All these numbers just tell me that bgs is more popular than psa for grading chrome cards and that there is a greater number of Harper turnover than trout for sub bumps and regrades. By your logic are you suggesting they produced more Harper's than Starling marte autos in 2011 and that marte chrome autos are rarer than 2009 trouts? Only 158 marte's have been graded by bgs.
Not to mention the mass amount of 2011 Chrome that was opened because of the hype of Harper. I would guarantee there is a lot more 2009 left unopened compared to 2011.
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Old 02-19-2016, 05:18 PM   #24
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I should go buy a Trout
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Old 02-19-2016, 05:22 PM   #25
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Not to mention the mass amount of 2011 Chrome that was opened because of the hype of Harper. I would guarantee there is a lot more 2009 left unopened compared to 2011.
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