Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

[rogermaris]

For those who aren't aware, some people have questioning whether Luka signs all his autographs. There's been a lot of back and forth in various threads, but I haven't seen anyone do any real analysis, so I thought I'd give it a shot. Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Luka is NOT signing all his cards.

The whole situation becomes a lot simpler when you look at it chronologically. So let's begin at the start, with Luka's original autograph from BEFORE he entered the NBA.




CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

This is Doncic’s original autograph. Very similar to the controversal “Lulu” autograph, right? Case closed, right? Nope! Keep reading...

Here's the second iteration of Luka's autograph:



CHARACTERISTICS:
- No longer reads as "lulu"
- Nearly vertical
- Very tall and compressed
- Fast, sketchy
- "L"s often come close to touching
- "L"s are generally much taller than "U"s

Doncic's autograph changes once he makes it to the NBA, to no surprise. He's signing more than ever. And like most NBA players who are forced to sign a semingly endless supply of rookie cards, he shortens his signature. You can see how he derived his new, shortened signature from his original “Lulu” one. I've included the jersey he signed in person for the kid (that was linked in the other thread) because I've seen it used as an example of an IP signature that matches the questionable "Lulu" ones. However, it clearly matches his new, fast signature that he's developed, as you can see when it's placed side by side with others. It's still way taller and more compressed and more rushed than the questionable "Lulu" signatures. Also note that this shortened signature is the one Doncic uses on his earliest released draft cards from Panini.

For some players though, shortening their signature is not enough. So perhaps, like many athlete's facing this situation, he enlists some outside help. Be it his mom, a friend, whoever. This person is instructed to forge his signature. But of course, they don't forge his newly shortened signature. They attempt to forge his original, "Lulu" signature.

Which is why in Panini's second wave of releases, the strange new "Lulu" signature suddenly appears...



CHARACTERISTICS:
- Reads as "lulu," but does not match original "lulu" autographs
- Slow and neat
- Not compressed; lots of space between letters
- Wide letters, big loops
- Some examples have all letters same height; "L"s not tall enough compared to "U"s

Even when you compare this new Lulu autograph to his original, pre-NBA autograph, they don't match. The size, speed, compression are all different. The variation between them is about as much as you would expect between any two random individuals who attempt to write "Lulu" in cursive. If you asked my mom to forge Luka's original pre-NBA signature, she would probably come up with something very close to the questionable "Lulu" signatures. It looks like it could have been written by anyone proficient in cursive, but it does not match Luka's handwriting.

And of course, narratively it makes no sense. Am I supposed to believe that in the middle of shortening his autograph to make it faster to sign, Luka suddenly decides to make it longer and slower than it was before he entered the NBA? I can't think of any reason why he'd do that and in fact it runs counter to his motivation for shortening his autograph in the first place.

But that being said, I did my absolute best to create an alternative narrative that would explain the chronological evolution of Doncic's signature...

ALTERNATE NARRATIVE A: Doncic shortened and sped up his signature when he first got to the NBA, but then for some unexplicable reason, he starts alternating between his new "fast" signature, and an extremely neat, slow version of his autograph, the likes of which we've never seen. Even neater and slower than his pre-NBA autograph. And he's using his new, neater version of his autograph to sign thousands of stickers. It would be one thing if he debuted his slow, neat signature on a handful of high end cards, but these are sticker autos we're talking about. If Luka has developed a shortened, faster signature, one would assume he'd be using it for sticker autos. Honestly, this ss the only other narrative I can even think to introduce, despite the fact that it doesn't make sense.

If you still have doubts, just look at a comparison between his pre-NBA sticker auto and the sticker autos we're seeing now.

Pre-NBA "Lulu" sticker auto (small, tall, compressed, "L" much taller than "U"):



Current questionable "Lulu" sticker auto (slow, wide, stout, all letters same height):



TL;DR: I'm dubious about the recent "Lulu" autographs. That being said, I'm open to alternate narratives, if anyone wants to try and build one...

I also want to add that I have no dog in this fight. I don't even collect modern cards and was not aware of this controversy until very recently. I just think it's potentially damaging for the hobby in general and worth discussing.

[ninjacookies]

Still better than Dak's autopen.

[ehp6737]

Great write up, and as I mentioned in the other thread I think his mom is the one signing these. The new Lulu really comes off as having a woman's touch to me.

At the very least there now is yet another black cloud hanging over the hobby.

[KhalDrogo]

Ah man. And I thought from what I posted in the other thread that these were real. Now I’m doubting it. I have no Luka autos.

This would be very, very, very bad for Panini if true.

[ordietrying99]

The distance and angle before the first L (4-5×) and the down stroke after the U (absent) are huge red flags for me.

Also, Luka is only one of many athletes who have ghost signers...
The worst part is that little guarantee on back of every auto...if the FBI and a judge were to force that statement to be removed, as it is knowingly not in good faith...how do you ever get the trust or any stated guaranteed auto back?
...And if the auto isn't guaranteed, why not have a ghost signer?

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[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by ehp6737

the new Lulu really comes off as having a woman's touch to me.

I didn't want to include that in my analysis since it's extremely subjective, but I had the same thought.

It strikes me as the handwriting of a middle aged woman who has used cursive throughout her daily life. Not the handwriting of a 19 year-old boy.

[imbluestreak23]

Anybody got an IP auto?

Or IP Luka mom auto

Or... Luka moms digits

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Anybody got an IP auto?

First two examples in the first image are IP. In the second image, the basketball autograph and jersey autograph are IP. I have not seen any IP signature that matches the type featured in the third image.

[RogerGodahell]

what about this one?



Looks a lot like these ones to me.

[theLUCKYshow]

Solid analysis, but like I've said in the other thread we dont know anything for certain. What we know is he signs in multiple ways and has an erratic signature in general. I believe his unusual sticker autos are the result of him consciously signing to stay within the sticker. I could obviously be wrong but I've seen his Ls signed ten different ways.

Also here's a pic of a Luka auto that looks similar to his sticker auto I posted in the other thread.

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[ordietrying99]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

what about this one?







Looks a lot like these ones to me.

The first L, and the last U...those are different people IMO.
DISCLAIMER; I'm not one of those forensic handwriting experts...but I think for any of them, this might be way way too simple.


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[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

what about this one?



Looks a lot like these ones to me.

Gonna have to disagree with you. Check out this mockup side by side. Your autograph is on the bottom of each column. The left side shows it next to one of the questionable autographs. The right side shows it next to the real one. Do you really think the signatures on the right look closer than the ones on the left?



The only difference between the one you posted and the other questionable autographs is that whoever signed it didn't complete the first "U". Otherwise they're identical.

By the way, this is one of the Rated Rookie autographs he definitely signed:

[RogerGodahell]

His pre NBA look a lot like the stickers to me. The top right on both look almost identical to me.




And Luckyshow writes like a girl because he has good handwriting

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by theLUCKYshow

Solid analysis, but like I've said in the other thread we dont know anything for certain. What we know is he signs in multiple ways and has an erratic signature in general. I believe his unusual sticker autos are the result of him consciously signing to stay within the sticker. I could obviously be wrong but I've seen his Ls signed ten different ways.

Also here's a pic of a Luka auto that looks similar to his sticker auto I posted in the other thread.

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If you look closely, the autograph on that jersey is the third one I used in my original image. I chose it precisely for that reason. It does not match the signature on that card.

Here they are side by side:



Look at how tall and narrow the "L"s are relative to the "U"s, and how close they are together on the jersey signature on the right. The autograph is square and upright. The signature on the sticker is neat and slow, with short fat loops that are far apart from one another. And it looks as though it was signed by someone much more proficient in cursive. The one on the right looks like it was signed by a 19 year old boy. The one on the left does not. Admittedly, that last part is subjective...

You also have to avoid trying to scrutinize a single tree when you're in a forest. You can find an pre NBA autograph and one of the thousands of questionable autographs that look vaguely similar. But taken collectively, the data suggests there are huge differences in the two types of signatures we're seeing.

[ordietrying99]

In the bottom left, on the last U, to me that looks like whoever did that made an effort to correct a mistake in the counterfeiting with the secondary downstroke....

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[Chris P]

I'm curious..has anyone mentioned this to Panini through twitter or other means?

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

His pre NBA look a lot like the stickers to me. The top right on both look almost identical to me.

Here are the two you called out side by side.



To me they don't look the same at all -- they look like they were done by different people.

First of all look at the shape of the autograph itself. The one one on the left is rectangular and wide, the one on the right is compact and square. The "L"s are narrower, taller (relative to the "U"s), and much closer to one another.

The angle of the autograph is also completely different... the left one is way slantier, as are all the questionable autos...

[RogerGodahell]

Even better side by side. I think those look a lot alike. Those two definitely look a lot closer then some of his scribbly mess ones that are "chosen" to be real. At least to me.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

Even better side by side. I think those look a lot alike. Those two definitely look a lot closer then some of his scribbly mess ones that are "chosen" to be real. At least to me.

To me the left still looks like someone trying to impersonate the signature on the right, but let's set that aside.

How do you account for the fact that he inconsistently varies between a shortened and sped up version of his signature (like the one you posted), and a long slow version of his signature, with no variation in between?

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

To me the left still looks like someone trying to impersonate the signature on the right, but let's set that aside.

How do you account for the fact that he inconsistently varies between a shortened and sped up version of his signature (like the one you posted), and a long slow version of his signature, with no variation in between?

I think from that messy signature and his pre nba signature it shows there is a variation in between. Could it be even neater if he wanted to take the time? We don't know

[sjay2k]

I’ve read it all but I think you’re just wrong. They all look like they are done by the same person

[KhalDrogo]

I’ve done a complete 180 on this. Good work. Panini needs to comment here.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I think from that messy signature and his pre nba signature it shows there is a variation in between. Could it be even neater if he wanted to take the time? We don't know

What I'm saying though is to think about the implications of that narrative. You basically have to believe that Luka was handed a stack of Optic cards and decided to sign half of them like cracked out Antoine Walker and the other half like John Hancock. This isn't a case of his autograph getting messier throughout a signing session; they're two completely different autographs.

The questionable Optic signatures are even neater and slower than his pre-NBA autograph, and a million times slower than his post-NBA autograph. It makes no sense for him to suddenly debut it when signing thousands of stickers, especially since there's evidence that he's been actively trying to speed up his signature...

[RogerGodahell]

I don't know it's inconclusive to me. There's a couple extreme examples and there's several that are really close. I know some players auto's that don't even look the same at all and i mean completely unrecognizable. For example if you look at Tom Brady's first autographs in 2000 and then 2001 and beyond they look absolutely nothing alike. His first autos might as well have been written in Chinese.

[ordietrying99]

I think an intermediary like an agent or some in agent's office acting as liaison is most likely. I think most moms would hold their son to a higher moral standard than that...
BUT Agent and secretary= Save those hands my boy!

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