Tatis - The No Photo Variations Effect

[HarryLime]

As everyone knows, Topps pulled a Topps in 2019 and didn't do any SP or SSP rookie photo variations. Because of that, the hobby's (relatively) newfound love for Flagship has been narrowed when it comes to Tatis, Jr. cards. There's just the Series 2 #410 with all of its parallels and the US56 with all of its parallels.

My question for the board is: how will this impact the frenzy demand for Tatis RCs that we're seeing now and will almost certainly only increase in the future?

The #410 base is cruising to a 10k pop in PSA 10. There are, of course, the golds and rainbow foils and the like but there were those for Acuna in 2018 and Acuna also has all of those photo variations that command huge hobby dollars.

Where does the money that went to 2018 photo variations go in 2019?

Arthur

[padremurph]

There’s the factory set chrome variation.

[rngrdanny22]

I'm actually a little more interested in the longer term effects with his main card being horizontal. I don't think we've seen one of these perform so well.

[progers9119]

The 2019 Heritage Action is the pack-pulled variation that you want and crave. It's the best Tatis image on any of his rookie cards in my opinion, and there's a chase aspect to it.

You're welcome!

[LVDan]

I’d assume it adds more weight to the 410 parallels, Heritage stuff and TC color.


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[Thor34]

There's always 2019 Topps Chrome RC and its parallels as well.

[ThoseBackPages]

since variations are not Rookie Cards, i am not bothered by Topps not issuing them

it *IS* weird to see a Factory Set Flagship RC PSA 10 changing hands for that much money though, for sure

[toade]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

As everyone knows, Topps pulled a Topps in 2019 and didn't do any SP or SSP rookie photo variations. Because of that, the hobby's (relatively) newfound love for Flagship has been narrowed when it comes to Tatis, Jr. cards. There's just the Series 2 #410 with all of its parallels and the US56 with all of its parallels.

My question for the board is: how will this impact the frenzy demand for Tatis RCs that we're seeing now and will almost certainly only increase in the future?

The #410 base is cruising to a 10k pop in PSA 10. There are, of course, the golds and rainbow foils and the like but there were those for Acuna in 2018 and Acuna also has all of those photo variations that command huge hobby dollars.

Where does the money that went to 2018 photo variations go in 2019?

Arthur

It probably goes into other limited cards. I can't imagine it having any effect on his base card. There are a lot of us250 and us300... But there are way way more #410. The print run was higher, and then on top of that it's included in the factory set, which only increases it's numbers.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by toade

It probably goes into other limited cards. I can't imagine it having any effect on his base card. There are a lot of us250 and us300... But there are way way more #410. The print run was higher, and then on top of that it's included in the factory set, which only increases it's numbers.

Due to large supply (and the pending large spike in graded volumes), this one is a prime candidate to absolutely crash if he starts to struggle and/or doesn't keep up with the current pace. In that case, supply would drastically outweigh demand, and eBay sellers would start to undercut each other to move inventory.

Other cards are in the same boat (Soto, Acuna, etc), but the supply of these #410 will outpace those others by the end of this year.

[Finest]

Probably into Update and Update Chrome. A lot more short printed compared to the s2 and a nice vertical hitting photo. As opposed to horizontal and fielding with the series 2.

[The Nasty Nati]

Since there are no photo variations I think it will only drive the prices higher and quicker for the 410 parallels like gold.

I don't think the Topps Update will pick up too much steam, that "Rookie Debut" tag really keeps it down.

Personally, I love the horizontal photo of the #410.

[SupermanBrandon]

If the guy ends up being an all-timer...nobody's going to care that it's a horizontal card. In re: to not having an SP & SSP in Flagship...I would think that the #410 Gold's, Day's & other parallels will see a bigger run up, when compared to other stars flagships (that do have SP/SSPs).

[The Nasty Nati]

I also think his Topps Chrome autos will do better than most players because his '16 Bowman Chrome autos feature him in a Chicago White Sox uniform. That will bother some people. Not saying Topps Chrome auto will be worth more than Bowman Chrome, but they will be closer in price than other players.

[HarryLime]

I was thinking Topps Chrome might see more heat than the 2018 issue has gotten. A lot of the other cards (Heritage Action, Sapphire, even Flagship parallels) are all straight across the board with what was issued in 2018.

One main difference between 2018 Topps Chrome Acuna and 2019 Topps Chrome Tatis is that the Tatis card is his Flagship card, just Chromed, whereas Acuna had an entirely different photo. This could act as a way for people to seek out additional "parallels" I guess.

It can't be ignored though. The 2018 Flagship unopened prices are directly tied to SP and SSP cards. People aren't paying a premium for Series 2 so that they can get an Ohtani base and they're not paying $1,500 for a jumbo box of Update so they can pull the 15,000th PSA 10 US250. Those short prints and their auto versions are a twenty pound carrot. That's a LOT of money that doesn't seem to have an equivalent home in 2019.

Arthur

[Archangel1775]

1955 Topps Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufaz are horizontal.

The money will go into Topps Chrome Sapphire boxes if anything. The previous years were factory sets or vending type boxes. So you wont see outrageous prices of $3000-$5000 per box.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I was thinking Topps Chrome might see more heat than the 2018 issue has gotten. A lot of the other cards (Heritage Action, Sapphire, even Flagship parallels) are all straight across the board with what was issued in 2018.

One main difference between 2018 Topps Chrome Acuna and 2019 Topps Chrome Tatis is that the Tatis card is his Flagship card, just Chromed, whereas Acuna had an entirely different photo. This could act as a way for people to seek out additional "parallels" I guess.

It can't be ignored though. The 2018 Flagship unopened prices are directly tied to SP and SSP cards. People aren't paying a premium for Series 2 so that they can get an Ohtani base and they're not paying $1,500 for a jumbo box of Update so they can pull the 15,000th PSA 10 US250. Those short prints and their auto versions are a twenty pound carrot. That's a LOT of money that doesn't seem to have an equivalent home in 2019.

Arthur

You're assuming that each year lives in it's own little bubble. The market is being pulled in many different directions at all times. Many people are still buying 2018 rookies rather than 2019, or still buying 2011 or 2013 rookies. Tatis' prices would be a lot higher if he didn't have to compete with Trout/Soto/Acuna for people's wallets.

In addition, the 2019 set hasn't received the same love for the parallels that 2018 did. Many people consider the 2018 Independence one of the best parallel designs ever. The 2019? Not so much. This may also weigh on prices in the future if Tatis' play doesn't keep his prices lofty (in addition to it being horizontal ... yes, some people like it, but I'd bet that the majority don't).

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

1955 Topps Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufaz are horizontal.

The money will go into Topps Chrome Sapphire boxes if anything. The previous years were factory sets or vending type boxes. So you wont see outrageous prices of $3000-$5000 per box.

Yes, those are horizontal, and it doesn't matter. Because, you know, it's Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufax.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Yes, those are horizontal, and it doesn't matter. Because, you know, it's Roberto Clemente and Sandy Koufax.

The most expensive 2019 Tatis base rookie card is his Topps Chrome Sapphire. It has been since it's release. My point is that the horizontal image isn't going to detract from the long term value of the card. There is no 2019 card that is going to suddenly replace it. Additionally, if you can't see Tatis has the potential for greatness, then carry on with your bad self.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Where does the money that went to 2018 photo variations go in 2019?

Arthur

Topps Chrome Image Variation (Target Green Factory Set)

Topps Chrome Sapphire (210 graded/170 PSA 10)

[ThoseBackPages]

still a shame Topps dropped the image ball with him so many times throughout their 2019 releases

[rcgdodge]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

since variations are not Rookie Cards, i am not bothered by Topps not issuing them

it *IS* weird to see a Factory Set Flagship RC PSA 10 changing hands for that much money though, for sure

I prefer the factory set flagship Tatis by far!

[Bowman1951]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

it *IS* weird to see a Factory Set Flagship RC PSA 10 changing hands for that much money though, for sure

My raw was bought up today for $25. Cheapest on COMC now is $35. I bought this for $8 just two weeks ago.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Bowman1951

My raw was bought up today for $25. Cheapest on COMC now is $35. I bought this for $8 just two weeks ago.

crazy times indeed! congrats on the cash!

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Topps Chrome Image Variation (Target Green Factory Set)

Topps Chrome Sapphire (210 graded/170 PSA 10)

Everyone knows how I feel about Sapphire. I can't imagine the PSA 10 number jumping much more. From the beginning, I felt like a ton of those boxes were never opened. Now they are worth more unopened than opened. And in todays world of grading, if you haven't subbed your Tatis Sapphire...you most likely wont (or at least in the near future).

Note: I own 3x Sapphire 10s & 1x Sapphire BGS TG.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Everyone knows how I feel about Sapphire. I can't imagine the PSA 10 number jumping much more. From the beginning, I felt like a ton of those boxes were never opened. Now they are worth more unopened than opened. And in todays world of grading, if you haven't subbed your Tatis Sapphire...you most likely wont (or at least in the near future).

Note: I own 3x Sapphire 10s & 1x Sapphire BGS TG.

#WaxAlwaysWins