ROI Grading Discussion

[The_Reverend]

Grading has changed a lot with the price increases. There are literally five grading companies that are preferred for one reason or another. PSA, BGS, SGC, CSG and HGA are the ones being considered. I will acknowledge that the top of the line for slabs are BGS Black Labels followed by Pristine 10. White those as our standard, although neither of those grades are commonly received I am including them.

The example is a card sells fir $5,000 is a black label. What would be the percentage of ROI for the same card in the most common top grade fir the others?
In my opinion, the more common grades for all others besides PSA is 9.5. I do own a SGC 10 of a card but 9.5 are far more common. My thoughts:

BGS 10– $3,000
PSA 10–$2,500
BGS 9.5–$1,200
SGC 9.5– $1,000
CSG 9.5– $1,000
HGA 9.5– $1,000

I am leaning toward the latter 3 to be more the same and possibly CSG lower, but not sure yet.

Thoughts?

[goin3d]

IMO this is going to look totally different for each sport, and for each age of card.

[Fear of God]

Originally Posted by goin3d

IMO this is going to look totally different for each sport, and for each age of card.

THIS.

[dio]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Grading has changed a lot with the price increases. There are literally five grading companies that are preferred for one reason or another. PSA, BGS, SGC, CSG and HGA are the ones being considered. I will acknowledge that the top of the line for slabs are BGS Black Labels followed by Pristine 10. White those as our standard, although neither of those grades are commonly received I am including them.

The example is a card sells fir $5,000 is a black label. What would be the percentage of ROI for the same card in the most common top grade fir the others?
In my opinion, the more common grades for all others besides PSA is 9.5. I do own a SGC 10 of a card but 9.5 are far more common. My thoughts:

BGS 10– $3,000
PSA 10–$2,500
BGS 9.5–$1,200
SGC 9.5– $1,000
CSG 9.5– $1,000
HGA 9.5– $1,000

I am leaning toward the latter 3 to be more the same and possibly CSG lower, but not sure yet.

Thoughts?

there's 2 type of sgc 10. pristine/gem mnt , price difference is huge..

[rwperu34]

For first chrome auto it is typically;

BGS 10, $3000
PSA 10, $2000
BGS 9.5 $1500

That has started to change a little bit recently, but it's really just a few out of whack PSA auctions so far.

[kabrune2]

If it’s a big name RC or Auto, don’t BGS Black Labels go for 3x-5x more than the PSA 10 counterpart? As for a regular BGS 10, I’m seeing PSA 10’s creep up within striking distance with a small 10% difference.

Of course this varies by card/sport, but I’m just referencing the flagship RC or Auto (like 1st Bowman)... less % difference in price for lesser RC’s and non RC’s

[BlownOut]

I don't think a BGS 10 is worth substantially more than a PSA 10 because it will still have a 9.5 sub-grade that will stand out in a buyer's mind. If anything, a BGS 10 should be worth about as much as a PSA 10, imo...

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by BlownOut

I don't think a BGS 10 is worth substantially more than a PSA 10 because it will still have a 9.5 sub-grade that will stand out in a buyer's mind. If anything, a BGS 10 should be worth about as much as a PSA 10, imo...

BGS 9.5 is Gem Mint which equals a PSA 10 Gem Mint.

BGS 10 is Pristine.

A Gem Mint card could still have a slight defect. A Pristine card will be near perfect, even under magnification.

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

If it’s a big name RC or Auto, don’t BGS Black Labels go for 3x-5x more than the PSA 10 counterpart? As for a regular BGS 10, I’m seeing PSA 10’s creep up within striking distance with a small 10% difference.

Of course this varies by card/sport, but I’m just referencing the flagship RC or Auto (like 1st Bowman)... less % difference in price for lesser RC’s and non RC’s

I just sold my only BGS 10 for 10x what a PSA 10 goes for. BGS 10 collectors be crazy!

[BlownOut]

Originally Posted by rohara99

BGS 9.5 is Gem Mint which equals a PSA 10 Gem Mint.

BGS 10 is Pristine.

A Gem Mint card could still have a slight defect. A Pristine card will be near perfect, even under magnification.

So in your logic, every BGS 9.5 should crossover to a PSA 10, right?

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by rohara99

I just sold my only BGS 10 for 10x what a PSA 10 goes for. BGS 10 collectors be crazy!

Wow! I knew BGS 10, especially black labels are the grail fir a star player but 10X is crazy! Then a black label could be 30X

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by BlownOut

So in your logic, every BGS 9.5 should crossover to a PSA 10, right?

Most true gem or better BGS 9.5 would cross to PSA 10's if cracked and resubmitted, yes.

MOST, not every.

Its hard to state definitives when it come to subjective grading. Plus PSA/BGS don't have the exact same grading standards. PSA is tougher on corners, where BGS is significantly tougher on centering.

[BlownOut]

Originally Posted by rohara99

Most true gem or better BGS 9.5 would cross to PSA 10's if cracked and resubmitted, yes.

MOST, not every.

Its hard to state definitives when it come to subjective grading. Plus PSA/BGS don't have the exact same grading standards. PSA is tougher on corners, where BGS is significantly tougher on centering.

And to expand further, would you say that every BGS 10 would crossover to a PSA 10?

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by BlownOut

And to expand further, would you say that every BGS 10 would crossover to a PSA 10?

Yes. The standards to get a BGS 10 are stricter then a PSA 10.

However I can't say I've ever seen or heard of someone cracking a BGS 10 to get a PSA 10. And I doubt anyone would ever try. Sell the BGS 10 and buy multiple PSA 10's.

Edit: This holds for cracking and resubmitting. Not crossovers where you submit in a competitors slab. PSA and BGS rarely cross anything in each others slabs as they need to maintain the optics of being a harder grader.

[warderjack769]

I'll keep beating the drum on this; the time it takes to grade the card matters. You may get lucky and the card value may go up, might go down, but if you get it back quickly you have options. You can churn it, and then reinvest that money and grade ahead and still come out ahead of using a slower service that for 1 card gives you higher ROI. Or once in hand quickly you can wait until that player goes up for 50 points, 2 HRs, 4 TDs, etc., and sell it at that peak. You don't have that option when it's off in the grading vault for 8-12 months.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by warderjack769

I'll keep beating the drum on this; the time it takes to grade the card matters. You may get lucky and the card value may go up, might go down, but if you get it back quickly you have options. You can churn it, and then reinvest that money and grade ahead and still come out ahead of using a slower service that for 1 card gives you higher ROI. Or once in hand quickly you can wait until that player goes up for 50 points, 2 HRs, 4 TDs, etc., and sell it at that peak. You don't have that option when it's off in the grading vault for 8-12 months.

Don’t doubt at all what you say and would be a great strategy for low-mid cards, but for the home run cards PSA is the top dog. For instance.

Preparing a submission now that will include:

2003 UD Die-cut Gold LeBron James
2003 Fleer Tradition LeBron James
2003 Fleer Focus LeBron James /499
2003 Skybox Autographics LeBron James Rookies Affirmed /Kobe
2003 Upper Deck Rookie Exclusive Black & White SSP

This is a PSA only sub! I am going to put a small sub into CSG next week. Also, what is that grading kit? Do you not submit cards the same way we do with PSA?

[warderjack769]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

Don’t doubt at all what you say and would be a great strategy for low-mid cards, but for the home run cards PSA is the top dog.

Also, what is that grading kit? Do you not submit cards the same way we do with PSA?

Kobe and Lebron will always be great, so sending those to PSA is a no brainer unless you need/want cash much sooner.

Regarding the grading kit, I don't think it is any different, but perhaps it's their way of trying to standardize the form in which they receive cards to go through the initial intake faster. It seems like all of the TPGs are getting stricter about things like CS1s, and to my mind this is a good thing...whatever we can do on our end to help speed things up we should.

[jrd1436]

Hey Guys, I hate to rehash and bring up old topics but I have a question. It's not necessarily a ROI issue but does it seem right that a BGS 10 would have a 100% markup compared to a PSA 10?

Take 2018 TCU HMT25 Base Acuna and assume round numbers for easier math. PSA 10 = $150 and BGS 10 = $300.

PSA Graded Pop: 6878
10 Pop: 6408

BGS Graded Pop: 659
10 Pop: 128
9.5 Pop: 482

PSA has roughly 10x the amount of graded cards...can that be accurate? Both have a 93% Gem Mint pop rate and BGS Pristine rate is 20%. That being said should the Pristine 10 carry 2x the premium and not something closer to 50%?

[twist1one]

theae percentages seem a bit off a bgs 10 should be about 2.5xs a PSA 10 and a black label is anywhere from 4x - 6xs a PSA 10. also a PSA 10 usually anywhere from 1.5 - 2.5xs a bgs 9.5. pop report has and subgrades also have an influence on price.