With news of Ohtani's UCL tear, how much will his card prices drop?

[eastbayak]

Just curious to see what the community thinks. Also, anyone planning to pick up any cards on the dip?

[griffan15]

I think we will see a 30% drop at most and not 50%+ like some are hoping.

[Bcr]

Some of his cards were already dropping quite a bit before the bad news. I would expect that trend to continue and yes I will be buying a few cards in the off-season.

[Boredlawyer]

Common base RCs will drop at a much greater rate than the top tier autographs and rare stuff. I'm guessing easily accessible stuff will be down 50%+ and the rarer stuff 30-40% off it's peak. There's so much Topps Update base available and it's the first to get jettisoned.

He's still the most fascinating player to have come around in our lifetime. Even if he walked away tomorrow, he'd be immensely collected and command an enormous premium.

With that said, unless something is exceptionally rare, I don't see a reason to buy now versus in February. There's no reason that prices will see any increase over the next six months based on his performance. I think the injury increases the chance he sticks with the Angels. If TJ isn't a foregone conclusion, there's also a risk that he does a PRP injection, tries to rehab the elbow, and then has it go out in June 2024. Then you have risk of no pitching until 2026. Hopefully he gets the TJ ASAP and you're looking at close to full strength in 2025.

[xstphnx]

I think we just see fewer realized sales because Ohtani holders will just stubbornly hold on and demand peak pricing

[ThoseBackPages]

i hope Gold Refractors drop 50%

not the Baller stuff though, as that is pure crap

[NCWolf]

30-35% in the short term but then a bump right before spring training.

[eastbayak]

I can see prices, on average, dropping somewhere in the 25-50% range.

Wouldn't be surprised if they drop more since some prices shot up pretty high.

[msac904]

Great thread. It really sucks for him and I wonder what it will do to his next contract. Really puts the interested teams in a tough spot not knowing for much he can pitch or if he will for a while. Still an amazing talent

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[MoreToppsPlease]

The Wander effect will also be affecting the value of Ohtani’s cards.

[Stringmusic]

Hoping I can grab a Bowman Chrome refractor 9 in the off season for less than 1k!

[NCWolf]

Originally Posted by msac904

Great thread. It really sucks for him and I wonder what it will do to his next contract. Really puts the interested teams in a tough spot not knowing for much he can pitch or if he will for a while. Still an amazing talent

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I just don't understand why people feel the need to sell right now?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

I just don't understand why people feel the need to sell right now?

It’s what flippers do…flip. Low tolerance for risk/weak hands.

Not to mention new student loan payments for many.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

I just don't understand why people feel the need to sell right now?

If he needs TJ again, his pitching career may be over. History shows it doesn't take as well the second time around.

He's a fantastic hitter, but his current obscene card prices are being kept afloat by his ability to be a two way player, the likes of which have never been seen.

Plus he may be out all next year.

That's how this industry works, knee-jerk reactions (both positive and negative) and assuming the best and worst case scenarios at all times.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

The Wander effect will also be affecting the value of Ohtani’s cards.

Truthfully, I wondered what sort of impact the Wander effect would have on Ohtani's card prices.

I'm pretty sure more (than normal) investors will panic sell and trim their Ohtani stash thanks to Wander.

[towerymt]

200.0%

[Rage]

High printed base commons/low end: down 15-30%

Autos/low numbered parallels: down 5-15%

But also, how much of the drop will be from the injury news vs. the yearly drop in baseball card prices after summer leading up to Spring?

His stuff was already coming down a little bit from the July peak so can't attribute it all to just the UCL tear

[hermanotarjeta]

You are angering the ohtani bois with this thread.

How much will his 2018 investment boxes drop?

[PoPCulture]

Slight drop for 2 months followed by a small bump when he picks up (with his left hand) his hardware at the end of the year.

[eastbayak]

Let's get some more votes in!

[SupermanBrandon]

Rode the biggest peaked wave in sports cards for the past few months. Completely outpacing all cards + injury + typical offseason sell off/decline. Will be interesting to watch.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You are angering the ohtani bois with this thread.

How much will his 2018 investment boxes drop?

If they bought all their stuff in 2018 at msrp, what does it matter. Profit is Profit, I am sure they cashed out portions along the way to be ahead.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by jjcan

If they bought all their stuff in 2018 at msrp, what does it matter. Profit is Profit, I am sure they cashed out portions along the way to be ahead.

Im guessing anyone that bought as an investment to flip in 2018...did not wait until last week (much less today) to sell. Now to collect...yup, tons of those guys are still holding.

[fishepa]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

You are angering the ohtani bois with this thread.

How much will his 2018 investment boxes drop?

Holding of course, this is just a bump in the road.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by jjcan

If they bought all their stuff in 2018 at msrp, what does it matter. Profit is Profit, I am sure they cashed out portions along the way to be ahead.

There are many who bought into the hype over the last few months and paid dearly for product as well.