Tell me all about breaking the good the bad the ugly!!

[Poorboy]

Everybody talks about it. I see advertisements for them.people curse breaks/breakers and say they are ruining the hobby. I don’t have an opinion.
I don’t know much about it.can we objectively learn and teach us newbies?
I’m curious of the history and beginnings .i believe i saw a popular breaker on Bo named Houdini ?
Are they really that fun or a gamblers paradise money pit?
What say you?
Thanks for looking either way.n

[kipgen]

The good:

You get a chance at a card for less money than you would ordinarily pay for that card by subsidizing the cost of multiple boxes (sometimes cases) of cards across a number of people (depending on the break this can be divisional IE 8 people, 32 people in the case of "pick your team" or random spots in the break, conference, etc etc they mix it up all different kinds of ways at different price points). You also in some cases such as "pick your team" breaks get the chance to avoid all cards except for certain teams you want.

The bad:

It's a losing proposition most of the time. Think of a card you want in your head, then go look at the price of that card on ebay. Let's take a case of 2019 bowman draft for example, and you really want a gunnar henderson 2019 bowman 1st auto. Find a break for 2019 bowman draft, then look at the price of the Baltimore spot. More likely than not, the cost of the spot will exceed the cost of the gunnar bowman 1st, or be close to it.

This is where random spots come in. If they make them random spots, instead of making certain spots more expensive than others, they simply equalize the price across all teams, making it more attractive to buyers because now they have a chance at a good card at an even more reduced price. However, now you have to contend with not only getting the correct team in a randomized format, but also hitting the bowman 1st auto out of the case you're buying into. You may buy into the break and be stuck with an awful team with zero good prospects from that year and you're essentially automatically out whatever money you paid into it.

The ugly:

Breakers steal cards. This is documented across many different breakers, there are lots of youtube videos on plenty of breakers who have stolen cards on camera and lied about not doing it.

Breakers lie and go back on their word. In the case of Backyard Breaks and a gold kaboom of Trevor Lawrence they pulled, they backpedalled on promising to give it away because "thats a tesla bro, we cant just give that away", and kept the card.

Some people get deep in the whole as a result of breaks. This isn't specific to breaking obviously, but my theory is that since it's one or two steps removed from gambling, people can rationalize more easily that what they're doing isn't gambling because at least they're receiving something for their money as opposed to losing it at the tables or betting it on the clippers or whatever.

There are also breaks you can do of repacks, which vary in quality and transparency, but the bottom line with repacks is this: 90% of the time, the card you are pulling out of the repack is not worth what you paid for it. They're marginally better than wax breaks because the floor is typically higher, but the ceiling is also lower, and your odds aren't any better. Plus, you're at the mercy of whoever did the repacks picking players you probably aren't a fan of. You might buy into a spot for the Astros and get a repack of Jeremy Pena or something like that. Not always the highest quality players you can imagine.

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by kipgen

The good:

You get a chance at a card for less money than you would ordinarily pay for that card by subsidizing the cost of multiple boxes (sometimes cases) of cards across a number of people (depending on the break this can be divisional IE 8 people, 32 people in the case of "pick your team" or random spots in the break, conference, etc etc they mix it up all different kinds of ways at different price points). You also in some cases such as "pick your team" breaks get the chance to avoid all cards except for certain teams you want.

The bad:

It's a losing proposition most of the time. Think of a card you want in your head, then go look at the price of that card on ebay. Let's take a case of 2019 bowman draft for example, and you really want a gunnar henderson 2019 bowman 1st auto. Find a break for 2019 bowman draft, then look at the price of the Baltimore spot. More likely than not, the cost of the spot will exceed the cost of the gunnar bowman 1st, or be close to it.

This is where random spots come in. If they make them random spots, instead of making certain spots more expensive than others, they simply equalize the price across all teams, making it more attractive to buyers because now they have a chance at a good card at an even more reduced price. However, now you have to contend with not only getting the correct team in a randomized format, but also hitting the bowman 1st auto out of the case you're buying into. You may buy into the break and be stuck with an awful team with zero good prospects from that year and you're essentially automatically out whatever money you paid into it.

The ugly:

Breakers steal cards. This is documented across many different breakers, there are lots of youtube videos on plenty of breakers who have stolen cards on camera and lied about not doing it.

Breakers lie and go back on their word. In the case of Backyard Breaks and a gold kaboom of Trevor Lawrence they pulled, they backpedalled on promising to give it away because "thats a tesla bro, we cant just give that away", and kept the card.

Some people get deep in the whole as a result of breaks. This isn't specific to breaking obviously, but my theory is that since it's one or two steps removed from gambling, people can rationalize more easily that what they're doing isn't gambling because at least they're receiving something for their money as opposed to losing it at the tables or betting it on the clippers or whatever.

There are also breaks you can do of repacks, which vary in quality and transparency, but the bottom line with repacks is this: 90% of the time, the card you are pulling out of the repack is not worth what you paid for it. They're marginally better than wax breaks because the floor is typically higher, but the ceiling is also lower, and your odds aren't any better. Plus, you're at the mercy of whoever did the repacks picking players you probably aren't a fan of. You might buy into a spot for the Astros and get a repack of Jeremy Pena or something like that. Not always the highest quality players you can imagine.

Wow now that truly was the good bad and ugly
Very comprehensive
Food for thought
Going to go back and reread
So you are saying if you wanted the Henderson probably cheaper just to buy it ?

[daverat]

Great movie!

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by daverat

Great movie!

Lol it does lend its title to this thread
Talkin all about breaking
Lee van cleef looking for a signed Bobby Witt visuals

[Poorboy]

Pretty sure hermano would say degenerate gambler bois
But I know there is more to it more than one story to be told

[seanbros55]

1,500 posts in
3 months is
impressive.

[PuddleMonkey]

I admire his dedication.

[dodgerfanjohn]

So I missed out this year on my favorite product(Allen & Ginter X).

I saw there were some listings on eBay for breaks. One company that is reputable had up player breaks in a full case. And they were running multiple cases. I noticed several HOF and fan favorite type players as well as a few Dodgers were not selling for much. I crunched the numbers, calculated break even price point by odds, and figured that if cheap enough, it was break even or positive expected value. So I took a shot. Only hits and rookie base ship. If you don’t hit, they still keep the shipping. I’ve never done a break before this.

I bought three break spots for like $11 shipped. Ridiculously cheap. In the third break I hit a Kershaw gold auto /5. It’s around a $300 card. I was hooked and bought in much more after that. A few breaks I had so many spots and didn’t hit that it amounts to bad luck. But there were lots of HOF spots that went with no bids so I sniped at last minute. I eventually got a Mike Piazza auto /10, an Andy Pages auto /50, and some Yamamoto and Pages rookies as well as random minis.

Total I spent about $330 over a lot of breaks. I didn’t lose money but there were quite a few dry spells. It’s not really fun having say 8 spots and whiffing. One thing that screwed things up was they went from full cases to half cases. Same beginning price. Most stuff was still a break even prospect, but it wasn’t as good a deal. And I mean, why would I expect it to be?

Bottom line is while that first hit was big rush, I bucked the odds there and got lucky. The dry spell later wasn’t fun. Kinda like craps when variance rears its ugly head and you go weeks of rolling 5-8 times and crapping out.

As far as the breakers, they were decent enough. One guy hosting was great and the other was ok. Northofseven was the breaker. Blez also had breaks and I watched some. They go by team rather than player and I don’t think I like that format. Really expensive too. If I were to whif or get a subpar pull while buying in for a $300 break my only thought would be “why didn’t I just go buy cards I wanted”. And one of their hosts is some younger guy with like ADD or something and he is straight out annoying.

The biggest three problems for me with breaks is 1.) I like opening cards. I set build and enjoy even the base cards. 2.) the breakers HAVE to make money which generally means an added cost above and beyond the market cost of the product. 3.) the breakers don’t know the product. In this years A&G X there are black chrome full size reportedly with appx 35 of each produced(by odds) and black chrome minis with 7 or 8 of each produced according to the odds. People are starting to catch on how limited these actually are and auction prices have been slowly rising. None of the breakers spend even a second on this cards and it was driving me nuts. Some of them are $100 plus cards so bigger than many of the autos.

[theshowandme]

Poor boy is one hell of a username.

Fits right in with 90% of the board

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Poorboy

Wow now that truly was the good bad and ugly
Very comprehensive
Food for thought
Going to go back and reread
So you are saying if you wanted the Henderson probably cheaper just to buy it ?

Yes 100%

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

So I missed out this year on my favorite product(Allen & Ginter X).

I saw there were some listings on eBay for breaks. One company that is reputable had up player breaks in a full case. And they were running multiple cases. I noticed several HOF and fan favorite type players as well as a few Dodgers were not selling for much. I crunched the numbers, calculated break even price point by odds, and figured that if cheap enough, it was break even or positive expected value. So I took a shot. Only hits and rookie base ship. If you don’t hit, they still keep the shipping. I’ve never done a break before this.

I bought three break spots for like $11 shipped. Ridiculously cheap. In the third break I hit a Kershaw gold auto /5. It’s around a $300 card. I was hooked and bought in much more after that. A few breaks I had so many spots and didn’t hit that it amounts to bad luck. But there were lots of HOF spots that went with no bids so I sniped at last minute. I eventually got a Mike Piazza auto /10, an Andy Pages auto /50, and some Yamamoto and Pages rookies as well as random minis.

Total I spent about $330 over a lot of breaks. I didn’t lose money but there were quite a few dry spells. It’s not really fun having say 8 spots and whiffing. One thing that screwed things up was they went from full cases to half cases. Same beginning price. Most stuff was still a break even prospect, but it wasn’t as good a deal. And I mean, why would I expect it to be?

Bottom line is while that first hit was big rush, I bucked the odds there and got lucky. The dry spell later wasn’t fun. Kinda like craps when variance rears its ugly head and you go weeks of rolling 5-8 times and crapping out.

As far as the breakers, they were decent enough. One guy hosting was great and the other was ok. Northofseven was the breaker. Blez also had breaks and I watched some. They go by team rather than player and I don’t think I like that format. Really expensive too. If I were to whif or get a subpar pull while buying in for a $300 break my only thought would be “why didn’t I just go buy cards I wanted”. And one of their hosts is some younger guy with like ADD or something and he is straight out annoying.

The biggest three problems for me with breaks is 1.) I like opening cards. I set build and enjoy even the base cards. 2.) the breakers HAVE to make money which generally means an added cost above and beyond the market cost of the product. 3.) the breakers don’t know the product. In this years A&G X there are black chrome full size reportedly with appx 35 of each produced(by odds) and black chrome minis with 7 or 8 of each produced according to the odds. People are starting to catch on how limited these actually are and auction prices have been slowly rising. None of the breakers spend even a second on this cards and it was driving me nuts. Some of them are $100 plus cards so bigger than many of the autos.

Nice contribution
I see exactly where you are coming from
Makes sense
Thanks

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Poor boy is one hell of a username.

Fits right in with 90% of the board

Uhhhhhh ok
Thanks I guess ?

[Rooftop]

I would guess scratch off lottery tickets have better odds, plus a lot less work

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Yes 100%

Ok thanks

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

I would guess scratch off lottery tickets have better odds, plus a lot less work

It’s that tough to hit a winner ?

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I admire his dedication.

Thanks that means a lot

[f2tornado]

I participate in a few each year to burn some credits from PSA but it's not really my thing. That said, seeing how a product looks and breaks while having a little skin in the game is more entertaining than just watching something on YouTube. I tend to look for PTY (pick your team) format where a team has a lower buy-in relative to the potential hits. The Royals were cheap in Series 1 last year before Witt got red hot but I was mainly taking a longshot swing at a Bo Jackson or George Brett auto. No luck. Otherwise, I get my adrenaline rush betting on horses and that only takes a minute or two.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Poorboy

Pretty sure hermano would say degenerate gambler bois
But I know there is more to it more than one story to be told

There is certainly a poors element to it, but the degenerate gambler is the predominating trait.

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There is certainly a poors element to it, but the degenerate gambler is the predominating trait.

Rotfl I called it ….

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I participate in a few each year to burn some credits from PSA but it's not really my thing. That said, seeing how a product looks and breaks while having a little skin in the game is more entertaining than just watching something on YouTube. I tend to look for PTY (pick your team) format where a team has a lower buy-in relative to the potential hits. The Royals were cheap in Series 1 last year before Witt got red hot but I was mainly taking a longshot swing at a Bo Jackson or George Brett auto. No luck. Otherwise, I get my adrenaline rush betting on horses and that only takes a minute or two.

So is it the potential value of a “”hit””
Or the rush is just in playing the game ?

[Gidtheson]

Breaks where every spot gets something are fine.
Breaks where a % of buyers walk away with nothing are terrible.
IMO

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by Gidtheson

Breaks where every spot gets something are fine.
Breaks where a % of buyers walk away with nothing are terrible.
IMO

I didn’t know that happened …you can totally miss out on getting anything?

[Gidtheson]

Originally Posted by Poorboy

I didn’t know that happened …you can totally miss out on getting anything?

Breaker has product with a 100 card checklist. Sells each spot on its own.
Imagine a high end product with only 10 cards per box, 8 box case. 80 cards. %20 walk away empty handed. This happens a lot.

[Poorboy]

Originally Posted by Gidtheson

Breaker has product with a 100 card checklist. Sells each spot on its own.
Imagine a high end product with only 10 cards per box, 8 box case. 80 cards. %20 walk away empty handed. This happens a lot.

That sounds horrible …….