So I opened 28 packs of GameStop power packs

1212superstar · 12-12-2025, 11:06 PM

So I noticed there was a pattern
Pokémon is really bad because everybody and his mom is opening these im quantity so that has a really slim odds..I opened 12 packs of this and only two for profit.

Baseball I opened seven packs and three were profit

Football I open eight packs and only two are profitable. That’s the one hit was a Drake maye PSA 10 planetary Mars from cosmic worth $700

Basketball I four packs and three out of the four were more than my cost and one was 250 from $100 pack

Arena club is 10 packs and all skunk but with GameStop, you can see a predictable pattern

It was 31 pack actually recycling hits

bub838 · 12-12-2025, 11:24 PM

Siri: what is sample size and why is it important

1212superstar · 12-12-2025, 11:36 PM

too bad there's no reward points for these as i probably would have accumulated a ton

1212superstar · 12-12-2025, 11:38 PM

So in the end: I spent $400, but recycled all my hits and got $570 back (I shipped the Drake Maye)...I was actually up $750 ($1150) but the 9 pokeman packs ALL FLOOR killed me.

I spent thousands at Arena Club and never experienced anything like this with gamestop

Avoid: Pokemon
Soft Avoid: Football
Hit with no abandon: Baseball and Basketball

majestik101 · 12-12-2025, 11:40 PM

They just LOVE people like you

Keep ripping those buyback packs!

One day, you'll come out ahead

PuddleMonkey · 12-12-2025, 11:47 PM

oh dear

corockies · 12-13-2025, 04:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1212superstar

blah blah blah gambling

blah blah gambling

blah blah blah blah gambling

blah blah blah gambling

I got lucky THIS TIME, will lose 90% of the time

blah blah blah gambling

^this

1212superstar · 12-13-2025, 05:05 AM

Uh……..
So opening thousand dollar boxes of prism is not gambling and $800 boxes of tribute. They usually yield $10 in hits is not gambling.

Tastybrisket10 · 12-13-2025, 07:13 AM

The problem is not your choice to gamble, it’s where you said “there’s a predictable pattern.” Remember, the house always wins.

theshowandme · 12-13-2025, 08:23 AM

SaveMeTheGum · 12-13-2025, 09:16 AM

Wait, so you're saying that opening packs is not profitable unless you are a breaker that takes no risk? No way!

oldgoldy97 · 12-13-2025, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

JohnnyAppleseed · 12-13-2025, 10:30 AM

If you hang around a roulette wheel long enough, the guy 6 figures in debt will tell you there's a pattern.

cruiserdaddy7 · 12-13-2025, 10:52 AM

It's in Beta mode so not all of us can lose our money right now.

base set · 12-13-2025, 12:24 PM

Did you open them on the South Side though?

NYRE2PECT · 12-13-2025, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by base set

Did you open them on the South Side though?

Bwahahaha.

Underrated comment.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

majestik101 · 12-13-2025, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Love it!

Saved image to my Blowout folder

johnlocke36 · 12-13-2025, 02:33 PM

I've been tossing around the idea of whether or not i want to release an app/website that calcualtes the EV of every arena pack/power pack rip so customers could have some data before they decide to open.

I was actually a bit surprised how high the EV was for a few of the packs that I did. Here's a sample breakdown for anyone interested of a $100 Arena baseball pack.

The price is a fairly rough estimate of fairly recent sales data or what you could expect to sell it for on EBAY currently. I'm not sure how far below comps arena offers so I would have to look at some offers and see how far below my prices they are. But for all practical purposes I'm going to say take 20% off the EV for ebay fees etc.

Anyways, the EV of a $100 pack was $116.
98% of the time you are getting a card with an EV of $72.
The floor was 15-25. but 90% of the time you will hit a floor of $40

You can expect to lose money (pre 15-20%) about 75% of the time and if you assume you need a $125 + card to make money you will make a profit around 12-15%.

FWIW if people would be interested in a app/webtie that did this for every pack or something lmk and could prob get it done quickly. I prev wrote a program that calculated EV for ripping wax/breaks but nobody was really interested in seeing how much money they were losing

Lonewolf · 12-13-2025, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bub838

Siri: what is sample size and why is it important

LOL

Big35Hurt · 12-13-2025, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theshowandme

This is SO great. See what I did there?

boxbuster7 · 12-13-2025, 05:47 PM

<but why> ryan reynolds gif

Skipscards · 12-13-2025, 05:51 PM

1212superstar · 12-13-2025, 05:52 PM

Typical blowout #@#@#@#@#@#@#@ response to a post

boxbuster7 · 12-13-2025, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1212superstar

Typical blowout #@#@#@#@#@#@#@ response to a post

The only predictable pattern in repacks is losing money. The longer you go the worse your odds are.

corockies · 12-13-2025, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1212superstar

Typical blowout #@#@#@#@#@#@#@ response to a post

Typical gambler needs a pat on the back when they win for once.

/pat

Way to go degen. Repacks suck. All of them.

12-12-2025, 11:06 PM	#1
1212superstar Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 523	So I opened 28 packs of GameStop power packs So I noticed there was a pattern Pokémon is really bad because everybody and his mom is opening these im quantity so that has a really slim odds..I opened 12 packs of this and only two for profit. Baseball I opened seven packs and three were profit Football I open eight packs and only two are profitable. That’s the one hit was a Drake maye PSA 10 planetary Mars from cosmic worth $700 Basketball I four packs and three out of the four were more than my cost and one was 250 from $100 pack Arena club is 10 packs and all skunk but with GameStop, you can see a predictable pattern It was 31 pack actually recycling hits Last edited by 1212superstar; 12-12-2025 at 11:09 PM.

12-12-2025, 11:40 PM	#5
majestik101 Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Socially Distanced Posts: 44,807 majestik101	They just LOVE people like you Keep ripping those buyback packs! One day, you'll come out ahead __________________ If you reply with...."last one on eBay sold for this"...then you should have bought it on eBay. "Watson alone sells for over $20" https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1182760

12-13-2025, 09:16 AM	#11
SaveMeTheGum Member Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: NH --> CA --> SC Posts: 16,702 Cardboard_Dynamite CardboardDynamite	Wait, so you're saying that opening packs is not profitable unless you are a breaker that takes no risk? No way! __________________ Pay fast. Ship fast. Deal with people honestly. IG: CardboardDynamite

12-13-2025, 10:52 AM	#14
cruiserdaddy7 Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 15,577 Cruiserdaddy7	It's in Beta mode so not all of us can lose our money right now. __________________ Show me your friends and I'll show you your future.

12-13-2025, 05:47 PM	#21
boxbuster7 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 12,841 boxbuster777	<but why> ryan reynolds gif __________________ Psa 9 > psa 10

12-12-2025, 11:24 PM	#2
bub838 Member Join Date: Mar 2022 Posts: 5,105	Siri: what is sample size and why is it important

12-12-2025, 11:36 PM	#3
1212superstar Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 523	too bad there's no reward points for these as i probably would have accumulated a ton

12-12-2025, 11:38 PM	#4
1212superstar Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 523	So in the end: I spent $400, but recycled all my hits and got $570 back (I shipped the Drake Maye)...I was actually up $750 ($1150) but the 9 pokeman packs ALL FLOOR killed me. I spent thousands at Arena Club and never experienced anything like this with gamestop Avoid: Pokemon Soft Avoid: Football Hit with no abandon: Baseball and Basketball

12-12-2025, 11:47 PM	#6
PuddleMonkey Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: Pacific Northwest Posts: 4,512	oh dear

12-13-2025, 05:05 AM	#8
1212superstar Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 523	Uh…….. So opening thousand dollar boxes of prism is not gambling and $800 boxes of tribute. They usually yield $10 in hits is not gambling.

12-13-2025, 07:13 AM	#9
Tastybrisket10 Member Join Date: Jan 2023 Location: DFW Posts: 204 Tastybrisket10 Tastybrisket10	The problem is not your choice to gamble, it’s where you said “there’s a predictable pattern.” Remember, the house always wins.

12-13-2025, 08:23 AM	#10
theshowandme Member Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 5,088 theshowandme nova_cards

12-13-2025, 10:30 AM	#13
JohnnyAppleseed Member Join Date: May 2022 Posts: 728 breadposter JohnnyAppleseed	If you hang around a roulette wheel long enough, the guy 6 figures in debt will tell you there's a pattern.

12-13-2025, 12:24 PM	#15
base set Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: NW Michigan Posts: 9,519	Did you open them on the South Side though?

12-13-2025, 02:33 PM	#18
johnlocke36 Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Southern California Posts: 2,797	I've been tossing around the idea of whether or not i want to release an app/website that calcualtes the EV of every arena pack/power pack rip so customers could have some data before they decide to open. I was actually a bit surprised how high the EV was for a few of the packs that I did. Here's a sample breakdown for anyone interested of a $100 Arena baseball pack. The price is a fairly rough estimate of fairly recent sales data or what you could expect to sell it for on EBAY currently. I'm not sure how far below comps arena offers so I would have to look at some offers and see how far below my prices they are. But for all practical purposes I'm going to say take 20% off the EV for ebay fees etc. Anyways, the EV of a $100 pack was $116. 98% of the time you are getting a card with an EV of $72. The floor was 15-25. but 90% of the time you will hit a floor of $40 You can expect to lose money (pre 15-20%) about 75% of the time and if you assume you need a $125 + card to make money you will make a profit around 12-15%. FWIW if people would be interested in a app/webtie that did this for every pack or something lmk and could prob get it done quickly. I prev wrote a program that calculated EV for ripping wax/breaks but nobody was really interested in seeing how much money they were losing

12-13-2025, 05:51 PM	#22
Skipscards Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: In Tribute To The Great Ryno Posts: 30,223 jlankf2 jmp4	__________________ Go Royals!! #RoyalsIn2015 <---It Happened!! #TEAMZinck Sometimes it is astounding that we are able to persist in a world so full of morons.

12-13-2025, 05:52 PM	#23
1212superstar Member Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 523	Typical blowout #@#@#@#@#@#@#@ response to a post